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wdrag

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  1. wdrag
    Looking back: Thread wasn't of any significant help. Didn't verify... except maybe southern most part of our subforum. Tweener between many reports I90 north the afternoon before, and yesterday afternoon. 615A/22
  2. wdrag
    Activity last night died quickly before getting into the subforum. Follow NWS and the SPC updates. Have not had time to reevaluate since early yesterday,
  3. wdrag
    Will be monitoring at times during the night being on call. Note that I think the NYS activity is getting ahead of the modeling... faster. also pretty decent cells well out in front to the south. Interesting night ahead NYS and CT and of course now near I90. Walt
  4. wdrag
    Featuring Severe storms this thread though with wet ground cannot rule out isolated FF where excesses have occurred recently, especially ne NJ...but PW max around 1.4" and a bit faster moving, especially Wednesday, limit the FF potential. Follow modeled (FV3, NAM3K, HRRR, SPC HREF), NWS-SPC outlooks/warnings/stmts and your own takes, obs. TT up into the lower 50s tonight and Wednesday early afternoon. Wind fields a little on the lighter side today so believe svr risk from a dying line of esewd moving sct heavy convection is NYS/CT, maybe with a remnant thunderstorm down to I80-NYC around or after midnight. Should have a refire Wednesday afternoon but where does it grow large enough to be SVR? Probably I95 corridor eastward. NJ coast may end up the most favored area on Wednesday. Check for any changes in the SPC day 1 and 2 outlooks which at 6am has marginal upstate NY today, and then our area Wed.
  5. wdrag

    July 2021

    wdrag replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro

    SVR thread for 8P-!A se NYS CT dying out I80 near or after midnight then another risk Wed afternoon, entire forum but probably mostly I95 corridor eastward. Will detail a little more around 730A.
  6. wdrag

    July 2021

    wdrag replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro

    Tuesday night or a bit more likely midday Wed: BAD timing keeps me low profile on this if somehow timing improves, I'd go for a SVR thread. Instab parameters, esp TT are increasing (lower 50's). Down here in our subforum I know it's pushing it for Wed, . but am thinking a bit more about NJ/LI as SVR risk Noon-4P..sort of early in the day & sfc cnv not the greatest look but Marginal risk may need to be added somewhere down in the southern part of the subforum in future projections for Wed. For now continue just monitoring for myself.
  7. wdrag
    CoCoRahs 24 hr, thread and monthly totals for those stations that qualify. Will add the monthlies in 5 minutes. and HPRCC % normal for the month not including yesterday,
  8. wdrag

    July 2021

    wdrag replied to wdrag's topic in New York City Metro

    Good Sunday morning, As we clear the past week with only residual possible heavy convection north of I84 this afternoon (thread ongoing but probably dead for the most part [11-19])... as noted above, we're heading into a seasonable last two weeks of July..less risk of formidable threats-threads for us. My next consideration: BAD timing keeps me low profile on this but Tue night or Wed, if timing improves, I'd go for a SVR thread (faster moving cold front with better instability and wind parameters for a brief event), but for now no go-just monitoring for myself. Won't start August thread yet, but previously noted by someone, EC EPS seems to favor warmer than normal and wetter than normal in August, and most recent CPC week 3-4 outlook does the same for the beginning of August.
  9. wdrag
    This thread may be about done. MAY keep adding if heavy convection develops north of I84 this afternoon, but otherwise will post some CoCoRAHS, 24 hour rainfall, and 11-17 totals, and finally a monthly, where the daily data exists. Am pretty sure CoCoRaHs will not add incomplete dailies which is a drag, when it comes to looking at what there is (at least from what I've seen in weekly monthly checks). For now, have no new threads planned...looking at SVR potential late Tue or Wed but will comment in July section keeping this thread free of that small chance event). Thanks for keeping up with all of this and LI---sorry about little rain even overnight. Your turn comes...sooner or later.
  10. wdrag
    Could be related to drop size and efficiency... heavy showers embedded within an area of light rain am pretty sure are more efficient in yield. Also drop size in TC's tends to be smaller, yet adds up quicker. Note that high reflectivity in our typical storms indicates ice or LARGE drops but those drops don't necessarily translate into very heavy rain, if they are spaced a bit apart. Hope that helps. You might want to google rainfall efficiency (in tropical systems, and not?).
  11. wdrag
    Glad you asked. So when you go into underground... and the stations come up. My Map (ignore dewpoint-kaput and haven't taken time to fix) https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNJSUSSE11 Then it probably shows temps on the map. You can have the settings change to overlay radar, or change the temp to the daily precip total by clicking upper right of the MAP (settings wheel). Then... you can zoom out and look where you think bigger qpf is via your radar data source. Then .... click View Wundermap (below the map). Now you map is clean (no weather data) and to the right is the featured data. Under featured data, click weather stations,. then scroll down to precipitation and voila...there it is. Refreshes every 5 or 10 seconds and you can move the map centroid around and zoom to show more data or less... just have to be a little patient on the refresh of the data. Let me know if that works.
  12. wdrag
    0800 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 SSE STANTON 40.55N 74.82W 07/17/2021 E4.55 INCH HUNTERDON NJ TRAINED SPOTTER
  13. wdrag
    I haven't checked in since 2P... Here's a few 5's in North central NJ today. Almost 4 at one official NJ climo site.
  14. wdrag
    Think I saw that on mPing as well. 46 KT at EWR out off the north at 221P, 1/4 hail. .92 in about 35 minutes there.
  15. wdrag
    You've seen early NWS products/modeling prior to 12z/17. Please follow all NWS statements/warnings this afternoon tonight. PRIMARY max rainfall bands in our subforum of W CT, se NYS, extreme ne PA, n 1/2NJ, LI; ne-sw orientation (I think) roughly ne PA/NNJ through e NYS, NW 1/3 CT. That too where wet microbursts SVR but marginal TT48 instability and max wind below 500MB of about 30 kt. CAPE plenty supportive of SVR as well HI near 100 in warm sectors which could include KEWR. Yes TOR possible but not so much dynamically driven (that would mean potentially less strong), more so as spin along a boundary. Local mesoscale analysis will help with pooling dew points above 70, CAPE, sfc wind convergence as ingredients/drivers of heavy convection (outflows considered too). Moisture, lift and instability! LI, probably not much till after midnight and then not so much. Sunday: lets see what remains... convection possible but much less PW, but still further amounts. Details TBD including whether KEWR nudges 90F? Am probably offline 230-1030P. Family gathering.
  16. wdrag
    Power outages Sussex County NJ
  17. wdrag
    Here's what happened here late today. I watched this cell-line develop from 4-515P. I think plenty more of this tomorrow..stronger winds aloft. It should come down to primary persistent convergent bullseye 5P-midnight Sat. Will reevaluate in the morning.
  18. wdrag
    Expect NOT widespread 4-5", instead widespread 0.2-1.2" with a band or two of 4-5" probably somewhere near the 90F heat which will be in NJ (Probably D4 modest heatwave in most of NJ except coastal waters). This eve's 1-3" nw NJ in the digital storm total radar band previously shown. My Wantage (this southern part) total 1.12. Will try and reevaluate potential early tomorrow morning. 12z/16 SPC HREF under played the max by about 1" ending 8PM this evening. SPC HREF seems to favor, imo, ne NJ received ing the most by daybreak Sunday, starting this evening. As others have said, we shall see.
  19. wdrag
    Wantage NJ (this part) 1.02 since 514P. in basically 1 hr. CoCoRahs monthly totals attached-these do not include today.
  20. wdrag
    think it's a good idea to be ready for some short duration FF this eve in nw NJ and parts of our area Sat afternoon-eve. It should end by sunrise Sunday and this airmass should dry out per modeling. But by then the damage will be done. Already today near 3" near Wantage NJ... who gets it tomorrow... please read on
  21. wdrag
    Since about 4PM Friday - this afternoon in far nw NJ se NYS .. sample 1-2" I've had 0.34 in 9 min. You can figure out the RF rate. MAX gust under 30. I think there is some small hail mixed in some of the tstms..per mPing and NWS algorithms.
  22. wdrag
    No changes for me: Sunday-early Monday are in doubt due to model differences, the Canadian a little exuberant for our area while the GFS/EC say the potential big show is basically done by dawn Sunday. Therefore, focusing these next two days: SPC marginal risk both today-tomorrow in our subforum due to greatest instability. Stronger wind tomorrow so I suspect more widespread outbreak Saturday. However, can't rule out a damaging tstm I84 corridor to near- just north of NYC late today. Pattern suggests to me isolated 4 to 5" by daybreak Sunday. Where best chance? Cant comment further right now...may be back late today. Have a good day.
  23. wdrag
    Appears to me a possible tstm RI very late this afternoon-eve; better chance sometime later Sat night, and to me, best chance for heavy storms is Sunday up there in RI. Let me know how it goes. Thanks. Walt
  24. wdrag
    No changes in outlook. Sun-Mon remain up in the air. CF and weak low pressure posit combined with PWAT bullseye will determine deluge areas of concern. NAVGEM suddenly on board with EC for Sun-Mon. I think its good to remember all the modeling has been off on for Sunday so all i'm pretty sure of is an active Sat afternoon-night I80 north. BTW 3rd 90F day of the week at KEWR and other locations NNJ, 2 in a row there and many other spots NJ except NW NJ high terrain and some of the coasts. HI Near 100F HI tomorrow and then Sat has all to do with posit of the CF...going to be close for a 90F day in NNJ. s NJ looks like HI near 100... boundary somewhere between I84-I80? SPC moved the Marg risk tomorrow closer into the nw part of the subforum. I think a good move. Have a good night. Walt
  25. wdrag
    Cannot quote me: Decision time for you is when? tonights 00z HPC HREF is a start into what and where Sat. I think we're looking good here for big QPF. my guess is RI is targeted Sunday but i could completely wrong. Still uncertainty... Let me know decision time. Thanks,
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