wdrag
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I've added the Wednesday afternoon update from SPC. My focus is basically along the warm front-triple point wherever that traverses. CAPE and wind field/shear is good enough for iso SVR up to I84 late Thu afternoon-evening but I'm thinking more favorable zone is near and south of I78 in NJ-PA. Nevertheless, started a thread due to SPC outlooks, some of modeling dumping 1.5-2" of rain in 6 hours especially in se NYS/n NJ and ne PA. I won't be able to comment much of this thread period so just stay with it patiently and keep up to date on SPC outlooks, NWS Watch/warning/stmts and of course the radar with your observed trends. Never know, there might be a later trend further North into NYS/CT. 12z/28 EC wind algorithm pegs s CT/LI with 40-50kt.
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Not threading yet... will wait til late today. Could be tornadic near warm front. A couple of models have very heavy rain near a triple point and so its a concern, especially NJ and maybe LI? Have seen the wind fields. Don't like some of the instab parameters. Need to rereview with 12z/28 guidance.
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Wantage NJ 0.48" rainfall so far since ~550P Tue and beneficial. Plenty of thunder since 6P, still here currently at midnight.
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Wantage had G35 MPH 614P, 0.26" in that storm, and about 4 mi away, pea sized hail at ~620PM.
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Just got back senior softball and saw the watch in our northern part of the forum... I can see something gusty 40 kt near and n of I84 but for now not threading, since its a small part of the forum, a bit shakey and pretty quick. Just hope we all along I84 get some rain.,
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Understood regarding 8/10 uptick too soon... so the following will probably mean the GEFS is outlier and not reliable. fwiw... 12z/27 GEFS continues warming above normal 500MB heights ~Aug 5 ne USA and gets it going good by the 10th. Also continues two members of a TC beginning 8/10 and advances to near 70W off the E coast. Two members is few and considered outlier, so this may be premature for the Atlantic Basin, as briefly discussed in early MJO/K Wave posts.
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12z/27 GEFS continues warming above normal 500MB heights ~Aug 5 and gets it going good by the 10th. Also continues two members of a TC beginning 8/10 and advances to near 70W off the E coast. Two members is few and considered outlier, so this may be premature for the Atlantic Basin.
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A copy from this morning July: The 00z/27 GEFS Aug 10 spaghetti shows just two members with a tiny closed low near 60W, advancing nwwd. That for me is the first modeling admission that the Atlantic Basin may be getting ready to fire. Overall it looks to me like it's trying to warm up after the 5th, and especially the 10th onward as the Western Atlantic Ridge builds west and/or strengthens,. That should lead to Bermuda high dominance for us in week two August and maybe beyond?
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First (00z/27) GEFS sign of something significant in the Atlantic Basin. Just two members with a closed low near 60W, advancing nwwd. It's a start. Might be a tad early? but it's better than nothing - if you're looking for TC's in the Atlantic. The WAR via GEFS modeling is westward building beginning the middle of next week and more consistently, Aug 10 and beyond. Don't know for sure. Your's to flesh out via tropical signals.
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Nothing for me to confidently post a useful thread through Aug 10. Today's D! by SPC looks reasonable to me for late today to our N and NW. I did add the 00z/27 GEFS Aug 10 spaghetti showing just two members w a tiny closed low near 60W, advancing nwwd. That for me is the first modeling admission that the Atlantic Basin may be getting ready to fire.
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I have nothing to hang a thread upon through Aug 10. Maybe after Aug 10 it will start warming consistently above normal. I did see the early afternoon update MARGINAL Risk by SPC into the northern part of our subforum for Tuesday evening. For now, am not highlighting via a thread. Will take another look Tuesday morning.
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Few small cells developing at 250PM but will not thread this afternoon-eve. This coming week: Definitely a Thursday of interest but would like another look (00z/26 cycle) before setting up... and may delay that til I see the D3 from SPC Tuesday morning. Enough wind and modeled instab for a possible slice of svr through the NYC suforum. am offline 330P-10P
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only.02 in Wantage early today. NO SPC upgrade in their 846AM D1 update. No thread from myself on this potential.
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As of 835A EDT/25...NAEFS shows no OVERALL dramatic week-two warmup east of the Rockies and the Atlantic Basin shows basically nil in the 00z/25 ensembles through 16 days. Long ranging is difficult (beyond a week) and our thoughts on the modeling interactions can sometimes go awry when the models of one global factor (oscillation) or another unexpectedly changes. Maybe in our lifetimes that there will be new discoveries resulting in improved seasonal outlooking out to 6 months, beyond historic trends in climate - referencing in particular the trend of our slowly warming climate. August is going to be an interesting test here in the northeast... will try to remember to review at the end of the month. Based on the many prior projections in June-July, I anticipate something is going to adjust the pattern enough to reduce the bore factor, add heat and qpf later in August. In the meantime, having fun today.
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No threads from myself: This afternoon seems like I-95 or south of I78, especially central/s NJ for an isolated or sct potentially SVR storm. SPC HREF starts a bit further northwest of I95. Confidence low. Will only react w a thread if SPC upgrades or a watch issues. This coming workweek: Low confidence w best chance Thursday when wind fields aloft are strongest. However, Thursday on the 00z/25 EC OP is not quite as robust as the 12z/24 cycle. Laying low for now.
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RE: Thu July 29 SVR: Monitoring Gust algorithm of the EC...poking 30s knots here in the subforum. That is significant for a non-TC/non Synoptic Scale Winter event...especially 6 days in advance. Will monitor cyclically and see if it holds.
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WAR? Will the Western Atlantic Ridge reassert itself and result in the verification of previous many long range outlooks of above to much above normal temps for August here in the NY area? And if so, when does the Atlantic Basin fire up? I see as of this 7/24 writing that our tropical topic posters seem to expect week two or three of August for activity getting going? SST ANOM's don't look exciting (to me) but these can change. Certainly the + anoms well north of HAT (especially New England) can feed or extend the life of TC's north of Hatteras.
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Winds are there for Thursday, as TT as well... little early to get too committed. Timing might not be quite ideal. I noticed the afternoon outlook hasn't changed for tomorrow- tho some of the modeling is trying to get isolated or sct potentially svr storms going I80 south. So for now, all quiet from myself on the threads.
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No svr thread at this time for Sunday... possible SVR, but marginal instability including late arriving CAPE, and wind fields aloft to 500 MB/TT basically below 30 kt and 49C. Doesn't mean it won't happen but would rather post if SPC D2 or D1 is Slight Risk (not marginal). EC is a little more promising middle of next week with stronger wind fields aloft. Nothing very exciting popping out at me through the first week of August up here. Maybe this will change?
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SPC with a marginal risk for SVR Sunday mainly northern part of the subforum. I like it. Would have started a thread today but for the errant thread on the missed SVR of earlier this week (20th-21st for our subforum. Gives more time to look but suspect will need a thread Saturday morning for Sunday.
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Looking at Sun-Mon potential nw flow event but could be a tweener like yesterday... does have potential but timing timing timing...?? Winds aloft not quite as strong but decent instability to feed upon. For now, low prob for a SVR event in our NYC subforum.
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Seasonable temps for a while and looks kind of dry to me, except for the "Possible" decent brief nw flow convective events with the CFP's. WNW flow events are my favored for big events, especially if big heat in the midwest. So, we'll see how this evolves.
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Looking back: Thread wasn't of any significant help. Didn't verify... except maybe southern most part of our subforum. Tweener between many reports I90 north the afternoon before, and yesterday afternoon. 615A/22
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Activity last night died quickly before getting into the subforum. Follow NWS and the SPC updates. Have not had time to reevaluate since early yesterday,
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Will be monitoring at times during the night being on call. Note that I think the NYS activity is getting ahead of the modeling... faster. also pretty decent cells well out in front to the south. Interesting night ahead NYS and CT and of course now near I90. Walt
