bluewave

But all of those sites measure the actual temperatures in their respective locations. The NYC station used to be away from the trees in Central Park and was 3 to 5° warmer than now before the ASOS installation under the trees in 1995. So the actual Central Park high temperature yesterday in an open space like the Great Lawn was 98° or 99°. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 0216 AM EDT WED JUL 17 2024 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT LAGUARDIA NY... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 97 DEGREES WAS SET AT LAGUARDIA NY YESTERDAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 97 DEGREES SET IN 1980. RECORDS GO BACK TO THE YEAR 1939 AT THIS CLIMATE STATION. Data for July 16, 1980 through July 16, 1980 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 101 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 99 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 99 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 98 NJ CRANFORD COOP 98 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 97 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 97 https://www.nytimes.com/1977/07/22/archives/vandals-in-central-park-forcing-weather-service-to-seek-new-site.html July 22, 1977 When the devices at the castle are not functioning, the Weather Service substitutes readings from La Guardia Airport. But Mr. Gibson said those readings do not really reflect conditions in the city, because they may be several degrees cooler in summer or warmer in winter than those in Central Park.

This should be the last of the 100° heat for a while as a big +PNA is set to dominate for the next 10 days.

The very wet vegetation at the park limited the high to only 94° yesterday. So we may not see another 100° in Central Park unless a place like Newark makes it to 105°. Since on the very hot days NYC runs about 5° cooler. Data for July 16, 2024 through July 16, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 101 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 99 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 99 NJ HARRISON COOP 98 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 97 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 95 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 94 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 94 Corona…..97° Fresh kills….100° Astoria 97° Hillsborough-Duke 100°

Dropped to 78° right before midnight. TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 99 359 PM 101 1988 87 12 80 MINIMUM 78 1152 PM 57 1946 70 8 76 AVERAGE 89 78 11 78

I actually have a higher heat index than Newark with the much higher dew points here. New Haven SUNNY 90 78 68 S9 29.73F HX 104 Newark/Liberty MOSUNNY 99 67 35 S26G38 29.70F HX 103

Several 100° highs showing up in NJ away from the sea breeze influence.

It usually starts by finding statistical changes to our weather patterns and then doing google and twitter searches for papers. Once a pattern becomes persistent enough papers usually start appearing. I like papers that are based on actual changes we have observed more than papers based on model forecasts. For a long time global climate models have been forecasting that the EPAC would warm faster than the WPAC and El Niños would become the more prevalent background state. But the opposite has been occurring since 1980 with the rapid expansion of the WPAC warm pool. So this tells me modeling still has a long way to go in describing fundamental changes to our weather patterns beyond the basic more CO2 equals warmer general temperatures.

I found the ACE on Wikipedia and clicked the top of the column to sort by ranking from highest to lowest.

It will be a race to see how warm you can get before the Ambrose Jet kicks in later. URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service New York NY 1115 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ANZ355-170415- /O.NEW.KOKX.SC.Y.0060.240716T2000Z-240717T0600Z/ Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm- 1115 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 3 to 5 ft expected. * WHERE...Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 nm. * WHEN...From 4 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

It’s a very interesting question. The highest ACE season was 1933, this was followed by the legendary February 1934. The 2005-2006 La Niña was warm and snowy. 1995-1996 speaks for itself. Recent years with very high ACE featured the 20-21 La Niña which had the amplified MJO 5 in October and was weaker in December allowing other factors to drive the pattern. Another winter into spring was 17-18 which we have already discussed at length. But the 98-99 and 99-00 La Niña winter weren’t so great even though we did get the surprise late January 2000 Southeast and north snowstorm which all the models missed with the retrograding block. It would be interesting to see some papers done on the topic to see which aspects of the hurricane season were related to the winter blocking periods and snowier outcomes. It could also be that both patterns were linked through another underlying process which hasn’t been identified beyond the wave breaking. Highest Atlantic ACE seasons 1933 258.57 20 11 6 Extremely active 2005 245.3 28 15 7 Extremely active 1893 231.1475 12 10 5 Extremely active 1926 229.5575 11 8 6 Extremely active 1995 227.1025 19 11 5 Extremely active 2004 226.88 15 9 6 Extremely active 2017 224.8775 17 10 6 Extremely active 1950 211.2825 16 11 6 Extremely active 1961 188.9 12 8 5 Extremely active 1998 181.7675 14 10 3 Extremely active 1887 181.26 19 11 2 Extremely active 1878 180.85 12 10 2 Extremely active 2020 180.3725 30 14 7 Extremely active 2003 176.84 16 7 3 Extremely active 1999 176.5275 12 8 5 Extremely active

Yeah, the Ambrose Jet has been so strong that JFK has had the 3rd lowest number of 90° days on record by July 15th. Only 2 days so far reaching 90°. With numerous days gusting over 30 and even 40 mph. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2009-07-15 0 0 - 1985-07-15 0 0 - 1982-07-15 0 0 - 1972-07-15 0 0 - 1967-07-15 0 0 - 1951-07-15 0 2 2 2023-07-15 1 0 - 2015-07-15 1 0 - 2014-07-15 1 0 - 2006-07-15 1 0 - 2004-07-15 1 0 - 1998-07-15 1 0 - 1980-07-15 1 0 - 1979-07-15 1 0 - 1960-07-15 1 1 3 2024-07-15 2 0 - 2007-07-15 2 0 - 1990-07-15 2 0 - 1989-07-15 2 0 - 1976-07-15 2 0 - 1975-07-15 2 0 - 1970-07-15 2 0 - 1958-07-15 2 1 - 1953-07-15 2 0 - 1950-07-15 2 0

Shallow bays are different since they can heat up much faster than the open ocean. Plenty of upwelling along the shore this year. The ocean near the South Shore is still warmer than the 50s down at ACY. Many days this month so far with sea breezes into the 30s and even 40s on occasion. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=acyn4

The stronger sea breezes this summer have been keeping the ocean cooler than recent years. The upper 60s to lows 70s is refreshingly cool compared to recent summers. We can remember the numerous days with SSTs near 80° at the bouys from 2018 to 2022. STATION/POSITION TIME SKY/WX TEMP WIND PRES VSBY WAVE AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER (UTC) (F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (MI) (FT/S) NY Harb Entrance 1350 73 73 190/ 10/ 12 1010.8 3/ 5 20 S Fire Island 1350 74 73 200/ 10/ 12 1010.9 4/ 6 Great South Bay NOT AVBL 23 SSW Montauk P NOT AVBL 15 E Barnegat Li 1356 68 N/A 3/ 6

Would be the first time since 2013 if the thunderstorms later don’t drop the daily low below that before midnight. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2011 86 0 2 1993 84 0 3 2013 82 0 - 2010 82 0 - 2002 82 0 - 2001 82 0 - 1999 82 0 - 1995 82 0

The airport runs cooler than surrounding areas since the ASOS is next to one of the widest portions of the Delaware and gets a slight cooling breeze on SW flow. Data for January 1, 2013 through July 15, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PA MARCUS HOOK COOP 103 PA NORRISTOWN COOP 102 PA READING REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 101 PA PHOENIXVILLE 1 E COOP 101 PA PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 101 NJ ATSION COOP 101 NJ SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 101 NJ HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 101 NJ SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 101 NJ FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 101 NJ MANASQUAN 1 NW COOP 101 MD STEVENSVILLE 2SW COOP 100 DE GEORGETOWN-DELAWARE COASTAL AIRPORT WBAN 100 NJ ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 100 NJ MARGATE COOP 100 NJ WRIGHTSTOWN COOP 100 PA NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 100 NJ LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 100 NJ NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 100 MD ROYAL OAK 2 SSW COOP 99 DE DOVER COOP 99 NJ CAPE MAY 2 NW COOP 99 NJ PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 99 PA PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 99 NJ HAMMONTON 1 NE COOP 99 NJ ESTELL MANOR COOP 99 NJ PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 99 NJ EB FORSYTHE NEW JERSEY RAWS 99 NJ FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 99 NJ POTTERSVILLE 2 NNW COOP 99 PA DOYLESTOWN AIRPORT WBAN 99

For NYC there were 9 winters with cold departures relative to the 1961-90 normals since then. Official NCDC departures for NYC DJF relative to 1961-1990 climate normals 14-15….-2.6 13-14…..-1.1 10-11……-1.2 09-10….-0.2 03-04….-1.6 02-03…..-2.8 00-01…..-0.5 95-96….-1.8 93-94…..-2.9

The 100° heat should be more extensive tomorrow with deeper SW flow expected. The 100° heat in NJ stayed west of the sea breeze front in Mercer County. Places like Newark will probably have a better chance tomorrow.

That was the snowiest March on record for parts of Long Island. It was a great example of a snowy pattern before the SSW repeating after. But in recent years we didn’t have much snow before the SSWs so the period after greatly underperformed. In 17-18 we already had the record 950 mb benchmark blizzard in early January. So March picked up where the earlier portion the winter left off before the 80° warmth in February. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2018 31.9 0 2 1967 21.7 0 3 2015 19.7 0 4 2009 13.6 0 5 2005 13.3 0 - 1993 13.3 0 6 1984 13.0 0 7 1996 12.0 0 8 1969 11.0 0 9 1978 10.4 0 10 2001 10.3 0 Monthly Data for March 2018 for Suffolk County, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NESCONSET 1.4 SSW CoCoRaHS 33.8 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 31.9 BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 30.5 FARMINGVILLE 0.5 W CoCoRaHS 27.8 PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW CoCoRaHS 25.0 LAKE GROVE 1.2 SSW CoCoRaHS 25.0 COMMACK 0.8 SSW CoCoRaHS 24.4 CENTERPORT COOP 21.7 WADING RIVER 2.0 NW CoCoRaHS 21.3 UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 21.0 RONKONKOMA 1.4 WSW CoCoRaHS 20.3

The first clue was the near record MJO 5 for a La Niña October. It was able to weaken in December and allow the colder MJO 8-3 from after Christmas into early January. This was one of the best December 26th to January 8 periods for snow and cold on Long Island in the last 50 years. Then the record MJO 4-7 which began in mid to late January peaking in February completely reversed the pattern. There were also several papers which linked the amplitude of the MJO in those phases to SSW and historic March snowfall on Long Island. One of the wildest winters for extremes we have ever experienced lasting into March.

The winter was actually cold going into February. But the record warmth in February shifted the whole winter average warm. It was the first time we had 80° warmth during the winter around the NYC area. Boston Dec 17….30.7…..avg….34.7…..-4.0 Jan 18….28.6…..avg….29.0…..-0.4 Feb 18….38.1……avg…..31.7…..+6.4

DJF 2017-2018 finished +0.7 in Boston at 32.5° vs the 1981-2010 mean of 31.8°.

The SPC HREF had the storms in CNJ.

I am just pointing this out for the current atmospheric response which is leading the official ONI. It’s probably why we are getting the robust EWB this week. While it’s hard to dispute the warmer signals for the coming winter, it’s still uncertain whether we can see some mismatch periods to make things a little more interesting than 22-23 was. The bar has been so low the last 2 winters than any small improvement would be welcome.

The atmospheric La Niña response is one of the strongest that we have seen in early July similar to 2022. Notice how strong the VP anomalies are over the Maritime Continent. My guess is that the near record -PDO and WPAC warm pool are more important right now than the official ONI.

Close to 100° today west of the sea breeze front in NJ.