bluewave
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The last really cooler summer was way back in 2009 in the Northeast .So we have had 12 out of the last 15 summers here record warmer to much warmer than average. Even the relatively cooler summers of 2014, 2017, and 2023 weren’t that much below normal. It’s funny how the record 9 warmer than average winter run which began in December 2015 came right after one of our coldest Februaries in 2015. The same way the summer warm pattern shifted after the record cool June and July period. So it was as if those brief and isolated much cooler months were part of a loading pattern of sorts to the much warmer climate we find ourselves in here in the Northeast. Places like BHO have seen 53 top 10 warmest months since 2010 to only 1 top 10 coldest which was in February 2015.
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NW Europe has been the place to be.
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Ridiculous dew point spread tomorrow on the HRRR in NJ. Dew points near 80° along the Jersey Shore. With upper 50s dew points a little further west.
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Reminds me of how the long range guidance repeatedly tries to weaken the MJO 4-6 convection with the record warm SSTs near the Maritime Continent.
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Yeah. The HRRR has 102° in NJ with lower dew points and much higher dew points east of NYC with a very strong sea breeze. So another very well defined sea breeze front. Areas north of the LIE from Huntington to Commack may make it to 95° before the sea breeze arrives with dews in the 70s. Very high heat indices possible near your area over 100°.
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Another very well defined sea breeze front with the 100° heat in NJ Monday and Tuesday. Very impressive dew point pooling just east of the front into the upper 70s to around 80°. The timing of the front on Wednesday will determine if NJ can make it 3 in a row for the 100° heat.
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Another all-time rainfall event in the Northeast.
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NYC hasn’t been able to get higher than 98° since 2014. Data for January 1, 2014 through July 13, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 103 NJ HARRISON COOP 102 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 101 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 101 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 101 NJ CRANFORD COOP 100 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 100 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 100 NY WORLD TRADE CENTER WBAN 99 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 99 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 99 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 99 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 99 NY WEST POINT COOP 99 CT PUTNAM LAKE COOP 99 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 99 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 98
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That was the only time we had low 80s dew points with 100° temperatures. They did a study on it. The corn sweat got trapped under a strong low level inversion leading to the record high dew points and heat indices. https://journals.ametsoc.org/downloadpdf/view/journals/bams/77/7/1520-0477_1996_077_1507_tjhwit_2_0_co_2.pdf
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The 128° heat index at Newark on 7-15-95 is still the highest on record there.
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Yeah, this was one of my heavier hourly totals since moving up here last August at .84 in an hour. But last September was my heaviest with 1.53 in under an hour. Record wet pattern in CT since last July.
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With the 100° heat in the forecast for the coming week, this could be the first time we had 100° heat in June and July since 2011. Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2021 103 97 99 103 2011 102 108 98 108 1994 102 99 95 102 1993 102 105 100 105 1952 102 98 92 102 1943 102 95 97 102 1988 101 101 99 101 1966 101 105 95 105 2024 100 94 M 100 1959 100 93 96 100 1953 100 99 102 102 1934 100 98 90 100
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Probably starting to get some roadway flooding around the metro with 1-2 inches of rain in a short time. Manhattan mesonet 3h Precip: 1.72″
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This presentation from 2014 showed how some of the climate models were forecasting these lower summer pressures over the Arctic. This has been the pattern we have seen since 2013. Much different from the 2007 to 2012 era. It’s one of the reasons that the rate of sea ice decline slowed during 2013 to 2023 relative to 2007 to 2012.
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1.52” in the last hour at the Manhattan mesonet. https://www.nysmesonet.org/networks/nyc
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Classic case of the MJO 8-2 in December going into 4-6 in January effectively ending the winter on January 1st.
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Rain on weekend theme continues since March 1st as the record 603 dam WAR weakened enough since yesterday to allow the heavier rains into NYC and Long Island.
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The heaviest for places like LI and Southern CT will probably be from tonight into tomorrow.
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https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/environmental-modeling-center/fv3-convective-allowing-forecast-system NAM development was frozen after the March 2017 upgrade, and RAP/HRRR development with the WRF-ARW model will cease after the RAPv5/HRRRv4 upgrade in 2020. However, operational execution of these modeling and associated DA systems will continue until comparable FV3-based systems are able to give similar performance.
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Woodbine, NJ has been the rainfall leader across the area since June 30th with 5.26” for this event so far and a total of 11.69”.
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I think we are talking about such enormous amounts of upper ocean heat that even the 4th most active WPAC typhoon season in 2015 by ACE at 462 ACE 26/20/09 couldn’t reduce the SST departures much over the WPAC. We did see some relative cooling east of the Philippines. But area in the key MJO 5 area warmed leading to the record warmth and MJO 5 in December 2015 for a super El Niño.
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New daily record high PWAT at OKX of 2.39 is 7th highest measured value. The environment across the region is extremely supportive of heavy rainfall, with PWs measured by morning U/A sounding reaching 2 to 2.3 inches (2.39 inches, a daily record at OKX) with coincident MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. Max Values 08/19/1955 (03Z)2.62 in09/07/2008 (00Z)2.47 in07/23/2018 (12Z)2.45 in07/18/2019 (12Z)2.44 in08/11/2016 (12Z)2.41 in08/05/2010 (12Z)2.41 in08/19/2021 (12Z)2.40 in08/12/2016 (12Z)2.40 in07/18/2005 (12Z)2.40 in 07/12/2024(12z)2.39 in08/13/2016 (00Z)2.38 in
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Yeah, the hi res GFS has 95° to 100° heat potential from Huntington to Commack. But we’ll need to get close to full sun to have a shot at those temperatures. Probably have to wait another day or two to see what models come up with on sky conditions.
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We will have to rely on fronts and high dew point convection for our rainfall into late July as the tropics go quiet for a while.
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I think we are going to need a mismatch along the lines of Jan 22 in order to avoid our first 3 consecutive +4 to +5 winters around NYC. NYC Feb 24…+4.2 Jan 24..+3.3 Dec 23..+5.5 …………..+4.3 Feb 23…+5.2 Jan 23…+9.8 Dec 22…-0.6 …………..+4.8 Feb 22….+1.4 Jan 22….-3.2 Dec 21….+4.7 ……………..+1.0
