bluewave

We have no idea how long this will continue past the 20th since this is more of a reflective event which is subject to reversal longer range.

We can trace it back to the wave break last week with the record low just east of Hudson Bay due to the enhanced temperature gradient after the +11°C January.

With gradient patterns we generally have to take it one storm at a time. Since each storm coming through the fast flow determines exactly where the gradient will be for the storm behind it. So I agree with the sentiment that any snowfall forecasts beyond around 5 days are very uncertain. Typically the snow to mix to rain occurs between I-78 to I-84. But it’s possible that after the 10th we can get a storm or two that comes in a little further south than over the next week or so. As for the longevity of this pattern it’s even more uncertain beyond the 20th. So just enjoy the active pattern for now.

Thanks. Moved in near the end of the summer back in 2023. Enjoying the much better radiational cooling than I had back on the LI South Shore. Not too far from the Sound so still get great sea breezes in the warm season.

I am definitely doing better here along on the CT Shoreline than I was back on the LI South Shore with these type of gradients. Picked up 3” earlier and still have 2” left on the colder surfaces. High of 43° here today.

We can trace the -AO development back to that big wave break with the record low east of Hudson Bay last week. It lead to a near record Scandinavian Ridge which will retrograde back toward Greenland. Hopefully, something happening near Hudson Bay can finally be of some benefit this winter. By Central Jersey I am referring to anything from the I-78 and south for posters in that area.

While this is still very much a La Niña base state, a -AO signal emerged over the last 3-4 days of runs for the mid-February 10th through 20th period. The AO has been very volatile in recent years with big swings to positive and negative over short periods. Hopefully, the gradient can sink far enough south over that period for Central NJ to cash in. But it’s still very uncertain where the gradient will settle. Short range features like how amplified the trough out West gets along with AO strength will probably have to wait a while. That being said, it’s uncertain how much beyond the 20th the -AO can last with the fast changes we have been seeing in recent years.

Definitely could be. Having the Southeast Ridge allows the WAA near 750 to 850mb to push the temperatures above freezing. This is what we are seeing forecast for the next several events through around the 10th. The models like the NAM actually do pretty good with this warm tongue once within around 48 hrs. Beyond February 10th things become more uncertain as to where the gradient will settle. A slightly weaker -AO than forecast could allow the Southeast Ridge to flex a bit more than the current long range forecasts indicate. A stronger -AO could suppress the Southeast Ridge a bit. Plus a wildcard may be how strong a vort diggs into the West.

That period may serve as a test of how far south we can get the gradient. Real battle setting up between the Southeast Ridge and -AO block over the top with its high pressure. Hopefully, we can eventually get the gradient far enough south so the areas closer to Central Jersey can cash in a bit. But with so much pattern volatility, we may not now how far south the gradient eventually drops this month until we get to within about 120 hrs of the event.

The period starting around the 12th could be our first shot at a coastal development.

3” here just to the east of HVN. It’s nice to be in Southern New England for these gradients. Also one of the thicker fogs over a fresh snowpack since I moved up here.

Yeah, my point was that it was more a blend of forcing influences across the tropics rather than one well defined MJO pattern like we have seen in recent winters. This goes back to my research with the very strong forcing which occurred near the Maritime Continent back in October. The past La Niña cases similarly saw weaker MJO 4-6 activity from December into January with +PNA and -EPO mismatch patterns for La Niña. The opposite was true with weaker MJO 5 October La Niña patterns and then stronger through the winter. So there has been a well defined inverse relationship with the October to winter patterns. We can see the blend of forcing across the tropics from January 1-20. So we didn’t get the coherent MJO 8 response and 30 inches of snow at Islip which occurred in January 2022. The late January forcing near the Maritime Continent was more the La Niña interseasonal forcing shift which occurs closer to the start of February. This is why the Southeast Ridge typically emerges during La Niña Februaries.

If the EPS 500 mb look verifies, then you would probably want to see more coupling than we have seen so far this season. This is why the -AO back in January faded pretty quickly. With coupling we would get more than a 5-7 day window where the gradient can finally sink to our south.

There was no real forcing in the 8-1-2 regions. It was mostly In the 4-5 regions. So the +PNA -EPO -AO Niña mismatch pattern was being driven by something else. But it’s possible that the background forcing in 4-5 may have lead to the unfavorable Pacific Jet response. Since Suffolk got 30 inches of snow with a legit MJO 8 back in January 2022. Notice how much more favorable the forcing was closer to and east of the Dateline in January 2022 than in 2025.

The stratosphere and troposphere have been decoupled this winter. So our fortunes will probably rise or fall on what happens closer to 500mb. Hopefully, the EPS ends up being more correct than the other guidance day 10 to 20.

The MJO hasn’t been driving the pattern this winter. This has been a combination of tropical forcing in multiple regions. So expectations based on past MJO events haven’t worked out.

You want the gradient to drop to our south. Otherwise it’s just a bunch of front end thumps changing to rain and 40s. The EPS had a better look beyond 10 days than the GEFS and GEPS. At least a ridge bridge like over the top the EPS is advertising beyond 10 days could introduce a BM track potential for maybe around 5 days. But the whole mid-February pattern will come down to the EPS scoring a win before the pattern begins relaxing later in the month.

The 5 day window would be the amount of time we could get the gradient to our south for more than just overrunning mixed precipitation events. You want the gradient to our south for a BM track. So when the pattern begins to relax we get a coastal development that takes a BM track. No guarantees yet since the GEFS and GEPS are weaker with the blocking. So we just have to let this play out and see if the Euro score a win with the much stronger blocking.

Hopefully, the EPS can score a win here in mid-February. The GEFS and GEPS aren’t as strong with the blocking. But the EPS verbatim is a very nice look. My guess is that if the EPS is correct we’ll probably get a 5 day window before the pattern relaxes later in February.

So far this has been a -1.2° winter across the area from December 1st through January 31st. Jan 2025 EWR…-1.4° NYC…-2.5° LGA….-2.0° JFK…..-0.2° HPN….-1.6° BDR….-1.3° ISP…...-1.5° AVG…..-1.5° Dec 2024 EWR….-0.1° NYC….-0.9° LGA…..-1.0° JFK…..+0.1° HPN….-1.6° BDR…..-1.3° ISP…….-0.6° AVG….-0.8° AVG through 1-31….-1.2°

1976-1977 was in a class by it self. The late 1970s was the last time the U.S had a top 10 coldest winter. The same for our area also. These days we need strong northerly flow to get closer to 0° like we saw in early February 2023. Back in the 70s to early 90s Canada and the Great Lakes we cold enough so NYC could get to -2° and Newark -8° on westerly flow.

Textbook La Niña progression heading into February. The -EPO ridge pulls back to the west allowing the Southeast Ridge to rebound. So February is in track for our first warmer than average temperature departure month this winter.

Combined effects from climate change. The warmth in the Great Lakes plus Hudson Bay were the result of the record warmth in Eastern Canada. So when you have a strong 500 mb low east of New England circulating air from these relatively milder regions the end result is that the cold over the Northeast gets muted. The colder departures to our south this month tracked from the region west of Hudson Bay which was colder. Plus the extent of Arctic air across the Northern Hemisphere was at a record low this winter. So if we had the amount of cold that was available in past decades, Canada and the Northeast would have been much colder.

The warmer ending to January pushed the local 7 station average up to 30.7° or a -1.8° departure. The last time all 7 stations finished below 30° in January was back in 2014. The most recent January that all 7 stations finished under 26° was back in 2004. Other Januaries averaging under 26° were 1994, 1982, 1981, and 1977. So while we have had a few slightly colder Januaries since the 15-16 super El Niño like 2022 and 2018, the coldest January temperatures and departures have been missing the area. EWR…31.1°…..-1.7° NYC...30.9°….-2.8° LGA….32.0°….-2.4° JFK….32.7°….-0.2° HPN…28.0°….-1.9° BDR…29.9°….-1.5° ISP…..30.1°……-1.8° AVG…30.7°…..-1.8°

There was a 95 inches of snow report from New Haven for the 1779-1780 season. https://www.nps.gov/morr/learn/historyculture/hard-winter-news.htm ALL REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE WINTER OF 1779-80 IS THE WORST WINTER EVER KNOWN IN THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES David M. Ludlum in his book Early American Winter 1604-1820, in the chapter on “The Hard Winter of 1779-80” writes that it was “the most hard difficult winter….that ever was known by any person living. There has been only one winter in recorded American history during which the waters surrounding New York City have frozen over and remained closed to all navigation for weeks at a time…the Hard Winter of 1780.” According to Ludlum, January 1780 rated as the most persistently cold calendar month in the history of the eastern United States, and “The severity of the 1780 season reached all parts of the colonies. Reports from Maine southward along the seaboard to Georgia, and from Detroit down through the interior waterways to New Orleans, all chronicled tales of deep snow, and widespread suffering.” Ludlum believed that his research definitely showed that the season of 1779-80 in the eastern United States well deserved the name given to it by the people that experienced its effects….The Hard Winter. EYEWITNESS ACCOUNTS SUPPORT THIS BELIEF William Smith (a loyalist living in New York City) records in his diary that on January 16, 1780, people were walking across the frozen Hudson River from New York to Paulus Hook (today Jersey City) New Jersey. A Hessian soldier, Johann Dohla recorded in his diary on January 30, "The North (Hudson) and East rivers are frozen solid. The ice was checked and found to be eighteen feet thick. All ships were frozen in, and it was possible to cross over the North (Hudson) River on foot, riding or driving, without fear." Later, (on February 22) Dohla wrote "Today the North River ice began to break, after having been frozen for nearly seven weeks." A German officer, Major Baurmeister wrote, "The severe winter covered the North River with ice early in January; even where the current of the river is swiftest, the ice was eleven feet thick, in spire of the fact that it is 1800 yards wide between Fort George (today Battery Park, New York City) and Powles Hook." February 1780 seems to have been even colder: On February 10, William Smith mentions in his diary that a few days earlier a "24 Pounder" (that is, a cannon that fired a solid ball weighing 24 pounds - the entire cannon weighed three tons) was rolled across the Hudson River to Paulus Hook (today part of Jersey City, New Jersey.) Smith goes on to say that even a heavy load as this it made no impression on the ice. On the night of February 10th, Smith heard that four to five hundred British cavalry rode their horses across the river. MANY ACCOUNTS MENTION UNPRECEDENTED CONDITIONS A teacher in Yale College (New Haven, Connecticut) recorded approximately twenty days with snowfall, and a total of 95 inches of snow that winter. People walked across the Sound from Stanford, Connecticut to Long Island. Others walked from Rhode Island mainland to Block Island. Chesapeake Bay and the York River in Virginia froze over for the first time since Europeans settled there. Many people mentioned in letters that they could not remember a winter as bad.