bluewave

Yeah, nice looking shelf cloud at the start. The ASOS at HVN to my SW had a gust to 48 mph. I estimated around 30 mph by me. The downpour wasn’t as impressive as recent weekends only around .30 rain estimated. Strongest part of storm was to my west.

Radar estimates in excess of 2.00” near Pearl River.

2nd day in a row with flooding north of I-80.

The common denominator is that the NW Atlantic warm pool and attendant 500 mb height and temperature records are much more impressive than the colder records from south of Greenland to Northern Europe. tps://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01159-7.epdf?sharing_token=_FVaOVyABkcD2Hudkuy4HdRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0O_gxR6rgaJtPXjMaI-B_Efht4SyFms8mqqnoqmB-1adVBLGM5Ox8NTZgYnk58C8f_MqmRXlgMUKAvhPoz3ntaVpIMcZZ9PrSyXcXowWePIeqVtKWaAjhHN6qpaUvjsKJPMu2-ItgHqBkpP-ekBm2TbTkyKT4Ld921Svm7C1wJQmod5-Am_0W6rnLf3GjdTJ9U%3D&tracking_referrer=www.theguardian.com Abstract The northeastern United States (NEUS) and the adjacent Northwest Atlantic Shelf (NWS) have emerged as warming hotspots, but the connection between them remains unexplored. Here we use gridded observational and reanalysis datasets to show that the twentieth-century surface air temperature increase along the coastal NEUS is exceptional on the continental and hemispheric scale and is induced by a combination of two factors: the sea surface temperature (SST) increase in the NWS associated with a weakening Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and atmospheric circulation changes associated with a more persistent positive North Atlantic Oscillation. These connections are important because AMOC slowdown and NWS warming are projected to continue. A survey of climate model simulations indicates that realistic SST representation at high spatial resolution might be a minimum requirement to capture the observed pattern of coastal warming, suggesting that prior projection-based assessments may not have captured key features in this populous region.

I hear your frustration since CNJ has been a localized dry spot. But model output especially when convection is involved isn’t generally able to do INMBY forecasts. It can provide a heavy rain signal for someone in the region which has been working out. But unfortunately the technology can’t pinpoint whether Somerset or Sussex jackpots like we saw yesterday. So the 2.60” jackpot was to your north. Wantage NJ 2024-08-02 SafetyNet 84 68 94 60 29.97 29.81 2.60 27

Heaviest rain was north of 80 again with Wantage coming in at 2.60” https://www.njweather.org/data/daily/3588

Hillsborough only .11 rain since July 20th so the drier vegetation probably helping them out away from sea breeze influence. https://www.njweather.org/data/daily/3572

My guess is that it’s an additive process. When El Niño and subtropical marine heatwaves combine it has greater warming potential for the global temperatures. Then as we head into La Niña the cooling is less impressive since the marine heatwaves in other areas are ongoing. So El Niño and La Niña are having to compete with marine heatwaves in other areas. Notice how this was the first borderline super El Niño with so much SST warmth from 20°to 60°N. It’s much more pronounced than it was after the 15-16 super El Niño. One theory is that it’s a reduction in shipping aerosols but there are many competing papers on the topic. May take a while for some type of consensus to form on the exact cause of the accelerated warming.

This was a new type of global temperature response during an El Niño. It was the first time the global temperatures rose before the El Niño fully developed like we saw last spring. Now the warming is lingering past the Nino peak which was during the winter. May be related to the ongoing marine heatwaves outside the traditional ONI SST regions.

CNJ has been dry with wetter areas both north and south.

May be the first time since 1993 that the state of NJ has recorded 100° readings in June, July, and August. Monthly Data for June 2024 for New Jersey Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 100 HARRISON COOP 100 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 100 Newark Area ThreadEx 100 Monthly Data for July 2024 for New Jersey Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 101 HARRISON COOP 101 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 101 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 100 Monthly Data for August 2024 for New Jersey Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 100 Newark Area ThreadEx 100 Monthly Data for June 1993 for New Jersey Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 102 Newark Area ThreadEx 102 Monthly Data for July 1993 for New Jersey Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 106 Newark Area ThreadEx 105 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 105 TUCKERTON 2 NE COOP 104 TOMS RIVER COOP 104 WAYNE COOP 104 BELLEPLAIN STA FOREST COOP 103 LITTLE FALLS COOP 103 LODI COOP 102 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 101 WOODSTOWN PITTSGROV 4E COOP 101 LAKEHURST NAS WBAN 101 Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 101 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 101 ESTELL MANOR COOP 101 MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 100 SEABROOK FARMS COOP 100 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 100 PEMBERTON COOP 100 EWING 3 WNW COOP 100 LAMBERTVILLE COOP 100 CANOE BROOK COOP 100 Trenton Area ThreadEx 100 Monthly Data for August 1993 for New Jersey Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 100 WAYNE COOP 100 Newark Area ThreadEx 100

My guess is the only way we can avoid a repeat of the last 2 winters is for some type of mismatch between the La Niña background state in at least one of the winter months and like we got in January 2022 when the MJO went into phase 8. But short term shifts in the forcing like that probably won’t be known until the period in question gets much closer. So something that can’t really be known months out in a seasonal forecast. The only other clue would be the early MJO indicator in October. But years with a weaker La Niña SST ONI response like 16-17 had a weaker MJO 5 response in October and a very warm winter. Unfortunately we don’t have that more +PDO to work with this time.

The persistent record marine heatwave near Japan continues to set all-time records.

Tomorrow almost has the look of a quasi-PRE from the future Debbie although it probably wouldn’t meet the formal definition. The closed low opening up over the Great Lakes shares the same deep tropical moisture plume. So my guess is that some localized spot in the wider region has a shot at going over 3” in the convection. I am hoping the crew in CNJ can finally get lucky. Will check the 0z and 12z coming HREF runs for clues.

Looks like area losses are slowing enough to fall behind the steep pace that 2012 had in early August. So we are currently in 2nd place behind 2020. The period in early August was also when 2020 fell behind 2012.

The HREF did well as it had the widely scattered convection for today.

That’s why my previous post was the rankings for the stations which are the absolutes rather than departures which change every 10 years. But the sea breeze influence was evident in both datasets. The sea breeze prevented Newark from having a 90° average high for July like Harrison and SMQ did. Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1999 92.2 1 2 2022 91.5 0 3 2011 90.3 0 4 2024 90.0 0 5 2020 89.7 0 6 2010 89.4 0 7 2019 89.2 0 - 2012 89.2 0 - 2003 89.2 25 8 2016 88.9 0 9 2023 88.2 0 10 2006 88.0 0 Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2011 91.3 1 2 2022 91.0 0 3 2010 90.8 1 4 2019 90.6 0 - 2012 90.6 2 5 2024 90.5 0 6 2020 90.3 0 7 2002 89.7 0 8 2023 89.5 0 9 2016 88.9 0 10 2018 88.6 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2011 92.5 0 2 1993 92.2 0 3 2022 92.1 0 - 2010 92.1 0 4 1994 90.4 0 5 1999 90.2 0 6 2012 90.1 0 7 1966 90.0 0 - 1955 90.0 0 8 2024 89.7 0 - 1988 89.7 0 9 2019 89.5 0 10 1952 89.4 0

The CANSIPS has had a significant cold bias last 2 winters in the East. But so have many other seasonal models. This is why we would need a mismatch like Jan 22 that went against the La Niña and -PDO background state. That wasn’t something seen by the seasonal models either. It was a short term forecast that didn’t really happen till the models figured out Jan would go MJO 8 near the end of December.

Yeah, that big ridge east of New England with the trough over the Midwest really amps up the local sea breeze circulation.

Yeah, the areas east of NYC had much lower departures than in NJ due to the much stronger sea breezes this month. LGA….+0.5 JFK…..+.1.7 ISP…….+1.9 NYC…..+2.1 EWR…..+3.1 FWN…..+3.5 SMQ…..+3.7 Hightstown….Was +5.0 on 7-25 but hasn’t updated for last week yet

Mid to upper 90s for the usual warm spots in NJ to start the month. Even the North Shore of Long Island from Huntington to Commack can really warm up before the sea breeze arrives.

The very strong sea breezes this month limited Islip to only the 9th warmest and LGA 14th warmest July. Even Newark had a sea breeze influence since it couldn’t make the top 5 warmest like areas further west. FWN and SMQ had their 2nd warmest July west of the sea breeze influence. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1999 78.6 0 2 2019 78.1 0 3 2013 78.0 0 - 2010 78.0 0 4 2020 77.7 0 5 2011 77.6 0 6 1994 77.3 0 7 2022 77.1 0 8 2023 77.0 0 9 2024 76.9 0 10 2016 76.8 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2020 82.9 0 2 2010 82.8 0 3 1999 81.9 0 4 2019 81.5 0 5 2013 81.2 0 6 2022 81.1 0 - 2016 81.1 0 7 1955 80.9 0 8 1966 80.8 0 9 2006 80.7 0 10 1994 80.6 0 11 2023 80.4 0 - 2012 80.4 0 - 2011 80.4 0 - 1952 80.4 0 12 2008 80.0 0 - 1993 80.0 0 13 2018 79.8 0 - 1995 79.8 0 14 2024 79.7 0 15 2002 79.5 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2011 82.7 0 2 2022 82.6 0 3 1993 82.5 0 4 2010 82.3 0 5 1994 81.9 0 6 2024 81.3 0 7 2013 80.9 0 8 2020 80.8 0 - 2012 80.8 0 - 1999 80.8 0 9 2023 80.6 0 - 2019 80.6 0 10 1955 80.5 0 Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2020 76.5 0 2 2024 75.7 0 3 2019 75.3 0 4 2023 74.8 0 5 2013 74.6 0 6 2011 74.5 0 7 2022 74.4 0 8 2012 74.3 0 - 2006 74.3 0 9 2010 74.1 2 10 2016 73.9 0 Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1999 78.5 1 2 2024 78.3 0 3 2020 78.0 0 4 2022 77.9 0 5 2019 77.5 0 - 2011 77.5 0 6 2013 77.4 0 7 2012 76.9 0 8 2023 76.8 0 - 2003 76.8 25 9 2016 76.7 0 - 2010 76.7 0

The one silver lining is that you can turn on the sprinklers for these nuisance summer dry patterns. Almost a July version of January 2022. But most people don’t have snow making equipment to make up for missing the winter snowstorms. Time Series Summary for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx) - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2022 33.2 0 2 1987 20.3 0 3 2014 18.8 0 4 2016 16.7 0 5 1961 15.9 0