Jump to content

bluewave

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    34,375

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by bluewave

  1. bluewave
    The ocean temps are about 5° to 10° cooler this summer due to the much stronger southerly flow. STATION/POSITION TIME SKY/WX TEMP WIND PRES VSBY WAVE AIR SEA DIR/SP/G HT/PER (UTC) (F) (DEG/KT/KT) (MB) (MI) (FT/S) NY Harb Entrance 1350 72 69 130/ 16/ 19 1013.2 4/ 7 20 S Fire Island 1350 73 69 140/ 16/ 19 1014.1 5/ 8
  2. bluewave
    Yeah, very rare to have wind gusts over 30 mph with dew points in the upper 70s. Kennedy Intl PTSUNNY 78 77 96 SE22G31
  3. bluewave
    It’s how we got to the lower RONI with this borderline super El Niño event which made all the difference. The record WPAC warm pool in conjunction with the Nino 3.4 +2.0 ONI forcing combined to make 23-24 warmer than any previous super El Niño event for the CONUS. MJO 4-7 forcing with an El Niño produces very warm conditions over North America during the winter. We were lucky in 15-16 that the record MJO 4-7 forcing was only limited to the +13.3 December in the Northeast. When the typical Nino forcing was able to dominate things cooled off relative to December and became snowy. The 97-98 and 82-83 super El Niños were much cooler across the CONUS since the MJO wasn’t amplified in phases 4-7 due to the much cooler WPAC warm pool during those years. In addition, the -SOI peaked in 82-83 and has been getting weaker with each succeeding super El Niño event since then. Probably related to the rapidly warming WPAC relative to the Central and Eastern Pacific. Also the EQSOI is becoming more relevant due to the warming right along the equator near the Maritime Continent. Warmest U.S winter rankings showing how much warmer winters with +2.0 ONIs are getting #1….23-24…..37.53° #2….15-16……36.78° #8….97-98….35.90° #15….82-83….35.27°
  4. bluewave
    The Northeast has seen the biggest increase in extreme rainfall for all U.S. regions.
  5. bluewave
    Stations in our region are on track for another 10.00”+ month. The Bronx Mesonet already has 8.11. I will update the thread below when 10.00” is reached. https://www.nysmesonet.org/networks/nyc Day Max Min Avg Dewpt Max Min Avg Liquid Dir Avg Max Thu, Aug 1, 2024 93 75 83 69 82 43 64 0.00 W* 4 17 6:35pm Fri, Aug 2, 2024 92 75 83 72 94 51 70 0.61 S* 5 26 6:00pm Sat, Aug 3, 2024 92 73 80 71 92 48 76 1.44 W 5 28 5:30pm Sun, Aug 4, 2024 84 70 76 70 91 64 81 0.47 SW 6 29 4:30pm Mon, Aug 5, 2024 91 73 82 67 88 36 64 0.00 NW 5 21 5:00pm Tue, Aug 6, 2024 92 71 79 71 95 48 77 5.44 W 6 20 6:35pm Wed, Aug 7, 2024 71 63 66 65 98 86 95 0.15 E 8 28 7:30am Month 93 63 79 69 98 36 75 8.11 5 29
  6. bluewave
    It’s interesting how weak the -SOI and -EQSOI were for such a strong El Niño. This also lead to the weaker WWBs. Notice how much lower both SOIs were during the 15-16 and 97-98 events. My guess this is a result of the much stronger WPAC warm pool.
  7. bluewave
    Looks like we will have a break from the heat over the next week to 10 days.
  8. bluewave
    We have seen this disconnect in recent years between the SOI and trade winds. The stronger EWB recently matches up more with the EQSOI which was +0.4 in July +0.6 in June. The disconnect this month may also be related to the -AAO rising pressures further south and still leaving lower pressures right along the equator near the WPAC warm pool driving the stronger trades. EQSOI positive https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/reqsoi.for stronger trades with the EWB https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/cpac850
  9. bluewave
    Looks like the greatest HREF potential of 5.00”+ this time will be just to our west. But there could still be enough heavy rain over NJ into SE NY to exacerbate flooding potential in the areas that got 5-7” a few days ago. We will also have the potential for a few embedded tornadoes. The severe potential may increase a bit if we can overperform on high temperatures tomorrrow with the stronger WAR than originally forecast. Plus parts of Long Island like Long Beach may see 50 mph gusts with the tight gradient as Debby goes by.
  10. bluewave
    Right. Early day high. For afternoon record cool temps in August last 20 years 8-21-07 takes the prize with upper 50s to around 60° at Newark. https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/nj/newark/KEWR/date/2007-8-21
  11. bluewave
    Could see the risk of a few embedded tornadoes Friday with our area getting warm sectored as Debby goes by to the west. https://schumacher.atmos.colostate.edu/hilla/csu_mlp/csu_severe.php?date=20240807&version=2021&day=3&product=severe_ml_day3_all_gefso&day_str=0810&init=12
  12. bluewave
    The poleward extension of the Aleutian ridge last few days that produced the all-time heat in Northern Alaska was very impressive.
  13. bluewave
    The most impressive late season heat we ever had was when we had our first mid 90s in October back in 2019. But we needed that brief flash drought pattern to pull it off. We are lucky the pattern wasn’t a month earlier since it probably would have been 100° heat if it was closer to Labor Day.
  14. bluewave
    I am a bit surprised with all our recent endless summer patterns into early October we haven’t had any 100° heat after August 20th. It may be the tendency for these summer patterns to turn wet heading into the fall.
  15. bluewave
    The GEFS weeklies are a little more bullish than the EPS weeklies for some more mid 90s potential from late August into early September. But the last time Newark saw a 100° reading after August 20th was in 1993. The only times we are able to see cooler temperatures these days is with heavy rains and strong blocking. We got both this time. This was one of the strongest -EPO blocks we have seen this time of year.
  16. bluewave
  17. bluewave
    Debbie will effectively end up pulling the trough was has been over the Midwest this summer into the East going forward. Another case of summer heat getting interrupted by a tropical system. We have seen this many times in the past with 100° heat right before a tropical system and then less intense heat after.
  18. bluewave
    It was nice having that profiler data available from the Bronx.
  19. bluewave
    We’ll take any poleward help we can get since we just had the lowest -PDO June and July since 1950 at -3.16 and -2.97. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat
  20. bluewave
    Big slowdown in 90° day counts forecast as we actually see a very comfortable stretch of temperatures coming up into mid-August. Continuing to look like we may have seen the last of the 100° heat this summer. The combination of onshore flow and wetter pattern prevented a repeat of the record type of heat we saw during the 2010 El Niño to La Niña transition.
  21. bluewave
    5.00”+ from Bergen into the Bronx. New 24hr rainfall record for Howell Township, NJ at 6.79”. BERGEN COUNTY... BOGOTA 5.47 IN 1108 PM 08/06 AWS BRONX COUNTY... FORDHAM 5.38 IN 1110 PM 08/06 NYSM Observation Date 8/7/2024 6:00 AM Submitted 8/07/2024 5:56 AM Gauge Catch 6.79 in. Notes This is a record amount of rainfall in 24 hours in this area of Hopewell Township, New Jersey with more than 5 inches falling in less than 2 hours early last evening.
  22. bluewave
  23. bluewave
    Some radar estimates over 5.00” around that area.
  24. bluewave
    Looks pretty rough on the Henry Hudson.
  25. bluewave
    Yeah, reports of flooded roadways around the area coming in.
×
×
  • Create New...