bluewave
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Very lucky to be getting this dry pattern now as we could have exceeded 110° at the warm spots like Newark with enough SW to W flow during July. Some locations reached 108° during 2010 and 2011 and those summers had more rainfall than the last 60 days. The summer of 2022 had more rainfall also and still managed to get over 100° for 6 days.
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It does look like the MJO favors tropical development in the Western Caribbean later in October into November. But we would need the suppression pattern which has been in effect since August 20th to relax. Current extended Euro keeps the moisture to our east.
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Sometimes the location of the NE PAC vortex in a La Niña locks in early like in 16-17. Notice how the trough set up near the PAC NW in October 2016 and didn’t move in the winter means. Way too early to know if the vortex stays closer to Alaska like we saw this October. But even if a fraction more of a vortex verifies this winter near Alaska than the current forecasts have it could present warmer risks to the winter forecast than the models are currently showing.
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The big modeling story this month is how much stronger the +EPO was than originally forecast by the Euro back in September. We may need to monitor this for the winter forecast since it could have a warmer influence than the Euro winter forecast is indicating. This is not something winter fans would like to see since we really haven’t had a +EPO dominant La Niña since 11-12, 99-00, and 98-99. Euro forecast for October Much stronger +EPO than forecast
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This month really illustrates how so much of the daily minimum temperature rise over the years was due to increasing dew points. This is one of the first months in recent times where the maximum temperatures are driving the departures. It has usually been the other way around. October temperature departures so far ISP…..max…+3.5….min….-1.8……+0.9 HPN…max….+3.8…min….+0.3….+1.7 EWR…max….+4.2…min…..0.0…..+2.1 POU…max…+4.2…..min…-3.8….+0.2 TTN…max…+3.7…..min….-1.8……+1.0
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Yeah, we are getting a sampler of the normal diurnal temperature range in the high desert.
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First time that Newark reached 84° after October 20th for two consecutive years. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1947-12-31 87 0 2 1979-12-31 86 0 3 1950-12-31 85 0 4 2023-12-31 84 0 4 2024-12-31 84 0
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And in places which are usually much drier than our area…
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Yeah, it really seems like something significant changed with the global climate since last year as this record temperature spike has no parallel with any past El Niño years. The warming began much sooner than any other past El Niño years. And the temperatures continue above where they should be on a La Niña transition.
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One of the few times ISP has come to within 1° of the record high and still managed a -2 minimum departure. TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 76 1255 PM 77 2021 63 13 65 MINIMUM 44 632 AM 30 1974 46 -2 57 AVERAGE 60 54 6 61
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Several locations set a new October daily temperature range and tied for the fall. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=139&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&v=largest&month=fall&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png
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I will update it when the verifying numbers come in but the colder groupings were near or stronger than +3. That being said, it’s just one potential indicator and no guarantee it will workout again. Just something to keep in mind. October 2022…Phase 6 peak +2.177…..ONI….-1.0 October 2021….Phase 5 peak +2.087….ONI….-1.0 October 2020…Phase 5 peak +2.818….ONI…..-1.3 October 2017….Phase 6 peak +3.353….ONI….-1.0 October 2016….Phase 5 peak +1.800….ONI….-0.7 October 2011….Phase 6 peak +1.674….ONI….-1.1 October 2010….Phase 5 peak +2.880…ONI…..-1.6 Latest daily value http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/#tabs=Monitoring 5 2.3287644
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Feels cooler than it usually does approaching 80° with the very low dew points and humidity. Newark/Liberty MOSUNNY 77 35 21
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We have a shot at the driest October on record especially if the late month 590 DM Southeast Ridge verifies.
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The forcing will be on the move so may not spend much time in phase 8.
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Probably one of the strongest AO rises we have ever seen in October as the AO and NAO volatility has been off the charts in recent years.
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Sometimes there is a lag and other times it’s almost instant. The lags can be longer when the AO needs to shift like we saw earlier this month since it has more moving parts. But when forcing shifts to near South America and Mexico a trough can pop up out West relatively quickly.
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The actual forcing is forecast to be closer to 8 the end of the month with strong subsidence over the Maritime Continent.
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Yeah, this is why we are forecast to get such a deep -PNA trough in the West later in the month. It’s one of the few times of the year when the MJO 8 is this warm. Especially combined with La Niña and -PDO.
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Yeah, this is one of the few times of the year with a La Niña and -PDO that a MJO 8 is so warm in the East.
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At least the 80° heat will feel more comfortable with such low dews and humidity. We would probably be talking 95-100 if this was back during the summer. But this should allow the vegetation and soil moisture to dry out further with future drought monitor updates.
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Looks like the 2nd and 3rd greatest October daily temperature range for your area back to 1997. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=139&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=MGJ&v=largest&month=oct&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png
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The warming this fall is even exceeding Hansen’s predictions. So this may be a signal that this record warming is going beyond just aerosol reductions like Schmidt recently mentioned. It will be interesting to see how long the global temperatures hold in above the +1.5. https://mailchi.mp/caa/the-world-will-cool-off-a-bit-and-other-good-news The relatively “cooler” period that should be ushered in by September this year, i.e., the period in which global temperature remains lower than its present +1.6°C peak, may last a few years.
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At least this happened after the peak of the warm season. 2022 was the 2nd driest summer on record at Newark. It allowed them to go into 3rd place for most 100° days. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1966 4.46 0 2 2022 4.87 0 3 1949 5.68 0 4 1957 5.69 0 5 1965 5.83 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1993 9 0 2 1949 8 0 3 2022 6 0 - 1953 6 0 5 1988 5 0 - 1966 5 0
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The GFS is the only operational model that runs beyond 240 hrs. The other models have a control run and an ensemble mean. So we use the ensemble means to put together a long range forecast. But even the ensemble means have had a cold bias in the long range. The GFS is prone to fantasy snowstorms after 240 hrs but the ensemble mean doesn’t have this error. Remember in recent winters how the big snowstorm was always 2 weeks away on the GFS OP. So this is why we use ensemble means in the long range. New run 60s to possible 70s near the end of the month when the average high is only around 59°. More in line with the EPS and GEFS. Old run fantasy snowstorm
