bluewave

All the local airports around NYC are too close to the water to capture the highest urban maximum temperatures. This is one of the reasons that the NYC micronet was installed. ConEd could easily see from their actual electrical demand that the NYC official readings were lagging the actual usage on the warmest days. Especially with Central Park getting installed under the trees back in 1995 rather than out in a clearing like in the old days. So this lead to NYC being one of the most undersampled urban environments for heat in the USA. Most of the population in NYC doesn’t live at the cooler airports and get sea breezes. So the neighborhood micronets tells ConEd and the residents what is really going on where the most densely populated areas are.

Not iffy at all since Harrison was 93° to the NW of the Newark ASOS. The LGA ASOS is right along the Western Sound or East River. So a westerly flow there is cooler. Go a few miles south to Corona and it’s a land breeze with compressional downslope warming off the Moraine. JFK is right on the water so they need WNW flow to avoid a cooling influence.

The micronets have been very reliable. They maxed out at 94° the other day a little higher than the airports which are cooler since all 3 ASOS stations are right on the water. Go just inland from the cooler airports and that is where the warmest urban areas are. June 12th high temperatures Corona, Queens…94° Brownsville, Brooklyn….94° Newark….92° Astoria, Queens…91° LGA….90° JFK….90° BDR…90° FRG….89° HVN…89° ISP…..88° NYC….87° HPN….87°

It’s been all about wind direction along with increasing rainfall and not traffic congestion. The strongest heat during the 2020s summers have been west of the sea breeze front in NJ. Too wet with plenty of onshore flow for the 2010 and 2011 record heat to be rivaled east of the Hudson. Notice how several spots in NJ nearly tied 2010 for 90° days as recently as 2022. One spot actually eclipsed the 2010 record for 90 days in 2022. Even Newark has had sea breeze influence compared to Highstown which set the their all-time 90° day record in 2022 ahead of 2010. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=74&network=NJCLIMATE&station=NJ3951&season=all&dir=above&var=high&threshold=90&year=1893&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

The new NYC micronet had widespread 100° heat through Brooklyn and Queens in recent years. Even in Ozone Park just NW of the JFK ASOS. My guess is that Central Park also reached 100° numerous times on the Great Lawn.

Newark had 100° heat last June in NJ on the 21st. But didn’t make it to Long Island. This was followed up by more 100° heat in August. Brooklyn and Queens made it to 100° in July 2022 along with NJ. June 2021 featured 100° heat throughout NJ, Brooklyn and Queens. Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2024 100 99 100 100 2023 91 96 91 96 2022 96 102 101 102 2021 103 97 99 103

While models have done well with the 6-10 day warm signals in recent years, the wind direction specifics haven’t been figured out until we have been under 120 hrs. We have had numerous 6-10 day model forecasts in recent years with deep westerly flow and 100° heat forecast onto Long Island. But as we got closer to forecast time, more onshore flow shows up. So the areas in NJ away from the sea breeze have seen the strongest heat. This is why JFK to ISP haven’t had any 100° heat since 2013. All the recent 100° heat since 2013 has been restricted to NJ and Brooklyn and Queens.

Yeah, the 500mb heights and 850mb temperature forecasts would suggest our first 100° of the season would be possible for the usual warm spots. But a wrinkle may be whether the ridge elongates too much into Canada. Notice how the models have a high over Canada and Bermuda. So there could be a subtle backdoor front nearby. If the Bermuda High wins out than the first 100° for places like Newark could be possible. But if the high to the north is too strong, then more onshore flow in later runs east of NYC and perhaps the 100° potential over interior NJ. We probably won’t know for sure until the period gets under 120 hrs out. But we should at least see mid 90s as a floor. And be could get closer to 100° if the ridge is flatter with more westerly flow.

The strong subtropical warming actually contradicts our current understanding of how the ocean temperatures have changed in the past. The strongest SST warming was expected in the subpolar oceans. But instead the western subtropical basins have seen the greatest warming. But isn’t anything new as the lack of warming in the EPAC has baffled scientists for a while now. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00839-w Strongest ocean warming expected in subpolar ocean The observed warming pattern (Fig. 1a) contradicts our understanding of how ocean temperature has changed in the geologic past. SST reconstructions covering the mid-Pliocene, the most recent time when atmospheric GHG concentrations were similar to today41, highlight the strongest large-scale ocean warming over the subpolar oceans (Fig. 1c). Comparably, warmings in subtropical regions are less pronounced, except for the subtropical extension of western boundary currents, where a poleward shift of western boundary currents contributes to a local maximum temperature increase8,9.

If we can keep the ridge from elongating too much into SE Canada in later runs, then a flatter EPS high like below will keep the flow more westerly.

Hard to tell over a week out. But the EPS mean has westerly flow. So my guess is that most of the area away from the immediate shore will see their first mid to possibly upper 90s of the season. It’s a strong signal from an ensemble mean to see a 594 DM heat dome in the East over a week out.

New SST records set for the subtropical oceans.

Sea breezes and ocean views are the prime reason that so many people love living near the shore. Back in my old hometown places on the Boardwalk are going for almost 5 million dollars. It’s why so many people from NYC come out to Long Beach during the summer. Even the West End where houses used to sell for 50 thousand back in the 1970s is pushing almost 6 million to live on Reynolds Channel. When I grew up in those days Long Beach was more like Coney Island with arcades and an amusement park on the Boardwalk. Now it has become one of the most in demand Long Island real estate markets. https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/100-Boardwalk-Unit-1001_Long-Beach_NY_11561_M99207-31637?from=srp-list-card https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/853-W-Park-Ave_Long-Beach_NY_11561_M30048-76311?from=srp-list-card

Yeah, that’s what the Euro is hinting at around 10+ days out. Once these heat domes begin to flex the MCS train gets going over the Upper Midwest and race eastward. They seem to have been finding a way to go north or south of us in recent years. But eventually we’ll probably see another big one again.

Yeah, the 90° day count rises pretty quickly here in CT once we move inland from the shore. But not as extreme as NJ has been recently. I get a few more 90° days than Islip. for January 1, 2024 through December 31, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. HARTFORD-BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 27 Hartford Area ThreadEx 27 HARTFORD-BRAINARD AIRPORT WBAN 20 HARTFORD BRAINARD FIELD WBAN 20 DANBURY COOP 18 BARKHAMSTED COOP 17 DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 16 BURLINGTON COOP 16 MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 12 NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 11 NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 9 WILLIMANTIC WINDHAM AP WBAN 8 IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 7 Data for January 1, 2024 through December 31, 2024 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 41 HARRISON COOP 41 CANOE BROOK COOP 37 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 35 Newark Area ThreadEx 33 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 33 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 33 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 31 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 31 PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 30 PENNSAUKEN 1N COOP 30 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 30 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 29 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 29

Yeah, I am near the CT Shoreline and get great sea breezes. Yesterday was my warmest day of the season so far at 89° with more westerly flow that we have been getting recently. Only had 9 days reach 90° last year. There is also better radiational cooling here than I used to get back on the LI South Shore.

Yeah, this is why I like living near the shoreline. I used to get a great sea breeze back on the South Shore of LI. Now I get the local sea breezes off the Long Island Sound.

If the EPS is correct about that 594DM heat dome in around 10 days, then it would give us our first mid to upper 90s of the season.

If NYC increased the 90° count at the same rate as LGA and EWR last 30 years, then they would have around 28 days instead of only 18 days. So moving the sensor into the shade shaved off about 10 days. Yesterday was a prime example of this as some spots in NYC made it to 94° and the park was only 87°. June 12th high temperatures Corona, Queens…94° Brownsville, Queens….94° Newark….92° Astoria, Queens…91° LGA….90° JFK….90° BDR…90° FRG….89° HVN…89° ISP…..88° NYC….87° HPN….87°

Islip further from the sea breeze has nearly doubled their 90° day count since the early 60s. So this is more a JFK issue having the ASOS on the water. But you can see how much the 70° minimum count has increased at ISP with many recent top 5s. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=74&network=NYCLIMATE&station=NY4130&season=all&dir=above&var=low&threshold=70&year=1893&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

It’s a shame how much they let that Central Park site go. Since the ASOS was moved under the trees in 1995 it has created a decline in 90° days. You can see the similar charts starting 30 years before the the NYC ASOS was installed. All other sites away from the immediate sea breeze influence have seen a steep increase in 90° days. The sites with some of the greatest increases in NJ are in park-like settings such as New Brunswick. But those sensors are in clearings instead of under a tree canopy. If they kept the NYC ASOS in a clearing like before 1995, then NYC would average around 28 or 29 days reaching instead of the current 18 to 19. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=74&network=NJCLIMATE&station=NJ3951&season=all&dir=above&var=high&threshold=90&year=1961&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

The storm track through the Great Lakes was pushed further north and east than usual resulting in the snowiest February on record in Toronto. So you needed to be far enough north to get into the really good stuff. Plus the record warmth and open waters around Hudson Bay kept the Great Lakes warmer than they typically see during La Ninas since the source region was so much warmer than normal. This residual pattern could have been lingering from the previous winter which was the warmest on record for many spots around the Great Lakes. The custom composites that I generated below isolate the storm track dates. These composites feature the 11 days this past winter that .20 or greater of precipitation fell around NYC Metro. So this was the dominant storm track for my area. The average temperature on these storm dates in NYC was 41°. It’s why the snowfall last winter was so low even though the average winter temperatures for the 3 month period was closer to 35.0°. The La Niña reference to the pattern is how strong the Southeast Ridge was along with the subtropical ridge from near Hawaii into the Southern Plains on the major winter storm track days around the Northeast. Also notice the familiar -NAO Greenland to Iceland block linking with the Southeast Ridge yet again. The La Niña mismatch feature was the stronger -EPO+PNA than usual. The extended Pacific Jet from Japan across the CONUS was also significantly stronger than past La Niña instances. My guess this is a result of the gradient between the record WPAC warm pool and Arctic cold in Siberia. So an enhanced La Niña pattern in some regards with variations leaving some areas of the Great Lakes drier and warmer than usual La Ninas.

The disappointing part is that most to all of the La Niña +PNA mismatch December into January seasons like 20-21, 17-18, 00-01, and 95-96 were great to amazing snowfall seasons. This past season singularly was extremely low for snowfall compared to past events. This is why the mismatch potential I was discussing back last October with the early MJO indicator had caveats. As other features weren’t lining up like those great seasons. So while I was anticipating the +PNA, the Pacific Jet showed that it wasn’t going to relax right out of the gate in December. So it’s a bit like a baseball game where the team keeps leaving the bases loaded and can’t drive in any of the runs.

This past winter was trying to put together the semblance of a +PDO 500mb pattern in the means especially from December into January. But the Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet kept interfering by lowering heights out West as soon as they built. So the -EPO that we usually see with +PDO atmospheric patterns was too back and forth instead of staying as negative as 13-14 and 14-15 did with the great -WPOs we enjoyed back then as you mentioned. Plus the storm track was pure La Niña through the Great Lakes. This could have been a great winter for Eastern snows if the WPAC and Jet stream influence was more muted.

Perhaps we could see our first 95° readings of the season in late June if the WAR and ridge out West link up. But the wild card will probably be if we can get a break in this wet pattern. If it stays too wet, then we could only top out in the low 90s. But a few days of full sun and drier conditions could easily result in mid 90s or higher at the usual warm spots. Especially with the drought out West into Canada. Ridges trying to link up in late June