bluewave

My heaviest downpours in a while here in SW Suffolk. Looks like some areas picked up around .50 last hour.

Getting some heavy elevated convection along the warm front.

The lower dewpoints for a good portion of the month finally allowed the maximum temperature departures to exceed the minimums. High temperatures were able to beat expectations. The drier conditions at night allowed the lows to get closer to normal. NYC...max...+4.1....min...+1.6 HPN...max...+3.9....min..+2.0 LGA....max...+3.2....min...+2.3 EWR....max..+4.1....min...+1.8 JFK.....max...+3.6....min...+0.5 ISP......max...+4.4.....min...+1.4 BDR....max....+3.5.....min...+1.3

This will be the first time that we had 4 freezes in 6 years following the first 80° of the season. These very early 80° degree readings make this possible. So we get these big temperature swings as lows in the 20s are forecast next week. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First 80° Value Next Freeze Value 2021 03-26 (2021) 84 - - 2020 03-20 (2020) 80 4-17(2020) 32 2019 04-08 (2019) 80 2018 02-21 (2018) 80 3-6(2018) 29 2017 04-10 (2017) 82 2016 03-09 (2016) 82 4-5(2016) 26

This was a top 3 or 4 warmest March temperature for all our stations. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1945 89 0 2 1998 86 0 - 1990 86 0 3 2021 84 5 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1998 86 0 - 1945 86 0 2 1990 85 0 3 1921 84 0 4 2021 82 5 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1945 86 0 2 1998 83 0 - 1990 83 0 3 2021 82 5 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1990 85 0 2 1998 82 0 3 2021 81 5 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1990 82 0 2 1998 81 0 3 1991 79 0 4 2021 78 5 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1990 84 0 2 1998 80 0 3 2021 79 5 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1998 82 1 - 1990 82 1 2 2021 80 5

HIGHEST WIND REPORTS... Location Speed Time/Date Provider ...Connecticut... ...Fairfield County... Bridgeport 51 MPH 0501 PM 03/26 CWOP Norwalk 49 MPH 0513 PM 03/26 CWOP Bridgeport Airport 47 MPH 0617 PM 03/26 ASOS Danbury Airport 46 MPH 0322 PM 03/26 ASOS ...New Haven County... New Haven 63 MPH 0628 PM 03/26 CWOP Lighthouse Point 52 MPH 0648 PM 03/26 WXFLOW Meriden Airport 45 MPH 0554 PM 03/26 ASOS ...New Jersey... ...Bergen County... Old Tappan 51 MPH 0143 AM 03/26 CWOP Fair Lawn 49 MPH 0535 PM 03/26 CWOP Teterboro Airport 49 MPH 0559 PM 03/26 ASOS Oakland 45 MPH 0305 PM 03/26 CWOP ...Essex County... Caldwell 48 MPH 0520 PM 03/26 ASOS ...Union County... Newark Airport 59 MPH 0612 PM 03/26 ASOS Linden Airport 48 MPH 0615 PM 03/26 AWOS ...New York... ...Bronx County... Fordham 50 MPH 0400 PM 03/26 NYSM ...Kings County... Brooklyn College 50 MPH 0320 PM 03/26 NYSM ...Nassau County... Bayville 59 MPH 0541 PM 03/26 WXFLOW (45 feet) Carle Place 55 MPH 1050 AM 03/26 CWOP Wantagh 50 MPH 0600 PM 03/26 NYSM ...New York County... Midtown Manhattan 49 MPH 0645 PM 03/26 NYSM Washington Heights 45 MPH 0925 PM 03/26 AWS ...Orange County... Stewart Airport 54 MPH 0445 PM 03/26 AWOS Warwick 50 MPH 0440 PM 03/26 NYSM Montgomery Airport 47 MPH 0334 PM 03/26 AWOS ...Queens County... Kew Garden Hills 56 MPH 0440 PM 03/26 NYSM NYC/La Guardia 53 MPH 0647 PM 03/26 ASOS NYC/JFK Airport 52 MPH 0640 PM 03/26 ASOS Jackson Heights 46 MPH 0419 PM 03/26 CWOP ...Richmond County... 2 SE Elizabeth 52 MPH 0418 PM 03/26 NDBC College of Staten Island 51 MPH 0630 PM 03/26 NYSM ...Suffolk County... Eatons Neck 67 MPH 0856 PM 03/26 WXFLOW (71 feet) Stony Brook 65 MPH 0457 PM 03/26 CWOP (159 feet) Farmingdale Airport 53 MPH 0503 PM 03/26 ASOS Westhampton Airport 52 MPH 0734 PM 03/26 ASOS Islip Airport 49 MPH 0531 PM 03/26 ASOS Ridge 49 MPH 0705 PM 03/26 CWOP West Gilgo Beach 46 MPH 0701 PM 03/26 CWOP Great South Bay 45 MPH 0705 PM 03/26 WXFLOW ...Westchester County... Tappan Zee Light 14 52 MPH 0338 PM 03/26 WXFLOW Croton 49 MPH 0528 PM 03/26 WXFLOW White Plains Airport 46 MPH 0515 PM 03/26 ASOS ...Connecticut... ...Maritime Stations... 1 ESE Norwalk 51 MPH 0827 PM 03/26 WXFLOW 2 SSE New Haven 48 MPH 0518 PM 03/26 NOS-PORTS ...New Jersey... Jersey City 48 MPH 0428 PM 03/26 CWOP ...New York... Robbins Reef, NJ 62 MPH 0242 PM 03/26 NOS-PORTS Larchmont Harbor 55 MPH 0543 PM 03/26 WXFLOW City Island 51 MPH 0600 PM 03/26 CWOP Fire Island CG 51 MPH 0711 PM 03/26 WXFLOW Kings Point 50 MPH 0606 PM 03/26 NOS-NWLON Point O Woods YC 47 MPH 0834 PM 03/26 WXFLOW Shinnecock 47 MPH 0829 PM 03/26 WXFLOW &&

Peak gusts so far in the 56 to 59 mph range. Monmouth County... Port Monmouth 56 MPH 0346 PM 03/26 CWOP NJWXNET ...Sussex County... High Point Monument 59 MPH 0355 PM 03/26 NJWXNET Ocean County... Mantoloking 57 MPH 0442 PM 03/26 WXFLOW

This was one of the biggest 15 minute and 1 hour temperature rises that I have seen on the South Shore. Wantagh jumped from 65° to 80°in only 15 minutes. The hourly temperature jump was from 57° to 80°. So our weather extremes just keep coming. http://www.nysmesonet.org/weather/meteogram#network=nysm&stid=want

Really impressive for JFK to reach 81°in March. This was only the 3rd March to go above 80°. It was just 4 below the all-time March record high of 85° set in 1990. Kennedy Intl MOSUNNY 81 43 26 W31G44 RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 438 PM EDT FRI MAR 26 2021 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT KENNEDY NY... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 81 WAS SET AT KENNEDY NY TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 67 SET IN 1954. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1990 85 0 2 1998 82 0 3 2021 81 0

Newark has sustained winds of 40 mph with a gust to 54 mph. Newark Liberty PTSUNNY 83 45 26 W40G54

The 82° so far at Newark moves into the 5th place for the warmest March high temperature. Newark Liberty PTSUNNY 82 52 35 SW31G47 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1945 89 0 2 1998 86 0 - 1990 86 0 3 1985 84 0 - 1977 84 0 4 1989 83 0 - 1986 83 0 5 2016 82 0 - 2021 82 0

Some peak gusts around 60 mph to your west. I posted them in the other thread. Cambria County... Johnstown Airport 62 MPH 1026 AM 03/26 ASOS

80° at Newark and 77° in NYC Newark Liberty MOSUNNY 80 58 46 W31G40 Central Park MOSUNNY 77 59 53 MISG

74° now at Newark. CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS Central Park CLOUDY 61 56 83 E3 29.69F LaGuardia Arpt CLOUDY 62 55 77 S7 29.66F Kennedy Intl NOT AVBL Newark Liberty PTSUNNY 74 64 71 SW15G28 29.64F

Temperatures are off the the races behind the warm front. Newark at 69° now. That’s a 10° jump in just 2 hours. 26 Mar 10:51 am 69 63 81 SSW 14G25 9.00 BKN017,OVC023 29.65 1004.6 29.67 26 Mar 9:51 am 65 61 87 S 9 10.00 BKN017,BKN023,OVC110 29.69 1006.1 29.71 26 Mar 8:51 am 58 55 90 3

Western PA gusting to near 60 mph. PITTSBURGH/ALLEGHEN,PA (AGC) ASOS reports gust of 50 knots (57.5 mph) from SW @ 1326Z -- KAGC 261353Z AUTO 24026G46KT 10SM BKN043 16/07 A2975 RMK AO2 PK WND 23050/1326 SLP075 T01560067 JOHNSTOWN/CAMBRIA,PA (JST) ASOS reports gust of 54 knots (62.1 mph) from SW @ 1426Z -- KJST 261454Z AUTO 26027G38KT 10SM BKN038 OVC048 14/05 A2976 RMK AO2 PK WND 23054/1426 SLP074 T01440050 53028

Funny how we are getting the big -NAO drop to start April just like last year. This will also be the 2nd March in row with no measurable snowfall. It’s the first 2 consecutive Marches with just a T in NYC since 1945 and 1946. 2020 3 23 1.175 2020 3 24 1.233 2020 3 25 1.029 2020 3 26 0.781 2020 3 27 0.404 2020 3 28 -0.079 2020 3 29 -0.169 2020 3 30 -0.132 2020 3 31 -0.390 2020 4 1 -1.168 2020 4 2 -1.453 2020 4 3 -1.450 2020 4 4 -1.502 2020 4 5 -1.612 2020 4 6 -1.250 2020 4 7 -0.916 2020 4 8 -1.010 2020 4 9 -1.124 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 2012 0.0 0 - 1903 0.0 0 - 1878 0.0 0 4 2021 T 7 - 2020 T 0 - 2010 T 0 - 2008 T 0 - 2002 T 0 - 1995 T 0 - 1988 T 0 - 1986 T 0 - 1983 T 0 - 1979 T 0 - 1966 T 0 - 1946 T 0 - 1945 T 0

The Euro has mid to upper 70s tomorrow north of the Southern State on Long Island.

Record high of 67° at Islip. MacArthur/ISP PTSUNNY 67 56 Data for March 25 - ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Precipitation Snowfall Snow Depth 1987-03-25 66 31 T 0.0 0 2017-03-25 61 40 T 0.0 0 2016-03-25 60 43 0.01 0.0 0

Unusually high number of 60° days for Long Island in March. We moved into 3rd place today at 6 days. Tomorrow will be day 7 with the big warm up. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 60 Missing Count 1 2016 10 0 - 2012 10 0 2 2010 7 0 - 2003 7 0 - 1987 7 0 3 1986 6 0 2021 6 7 4 2020 5 0 - 2002 5 0 - 2000 5 0 - 1998 5 0 - 1995 5 0 - 1979 5 0 - 1977 5 0 - 1973 5 0

Looks like peak gust potential to around 60mph with the cold front on Friday. High temperatures usually beat guidance in these situations. So the warm spots in NJ may may get close to 80°. This will set up very steep low level lapse rates and deep mixing to 800MB or higher. 70s could easily push out to Long Island as the flow becomes WSW allowing deep mixing there also.

Areas that are near 80° on Friday could be in the 20s with the strong blocking to start April.

Our coming period of very windy cutters will produce another wave break in early April. It will be interesting to see how long that period of blocking lasts. These wave breaks that pop up in the 6-10 range make the day 11-15 forecasts very uncertain. New run Old run

These winter ratings are really subjective and can vary quite a bit from location to location. Northern NJ back to NE PA had a great snowfall outcome. Long Island snowfall was good but not great by recent standards. All the epic snowstorms since 03 have really raised the bar on what is considered a good or great winter. As for the 79-92 period, I enjoyed 81-82 and 82-83 more than this winter. Getting close to the jackpot of an historic storm is more important to me like February 83 and April 82. My 3 favorite snowfall seasons since 09-10 were 10-11, 15-16, and 17-18.

It looks like the GFS v16 moved into 2nd place ahead of the CMC and UKMET for the last 30 days. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gfs/ops/grid2grid/acc/