bluewave

Maybe we need another El Niño to change up the winter North Pacific pattern. The Super El Niño in 15-16 shifted the ridge axis west. It had been further east in 13-14 and 14-15. But the common denominator seems to be the record WPAC warm pool generating these giant stationary waves .

The record WPAC warm pool has turned into an extreme Rossby wave generating machine. Last summer it was the record ridge and heatwave over the PACNW. This month the record ridge is centered south of the Aleutians.

Sometimes a December signal is so strong, that the models correctly see it from months away. The Euro seasonal back in October had this very amplified Aleutians Ridge, -PNA, and SE Ridge pattern. But even for a La Niña, this will be our first with close to 3 sigma block centered just south of the Aleutians in December. December verification so far October Euro seasonal forecast

This is all part of the interference from the La Niña standing wave. These RMM charts by individual component show what’s going on. Notice how several components are hanging back closer to the Maritime continent.

Models continue in push back mode. The forecast colder pattern near the end of December is now warmer than the old run. This is the same thing that happened for Christmas from a week ago. It’s one of the problems with such a strong -PNA pattern. New run Old run

2021 was probably the first year that the NYC coldest daily temperature departure occurred on the Memorial Day weekend. The July 4th weekend was the last time this year that there was a -10 or lower departure. The one bright spot with the few -10 departure days is that we got some great snowstorms with them in early February. 2021 -10 departure days in NYC 1-21….-13.9 1-31…..-10.6 2-08…..-11.6 2-12…..-10.3 3-12……-12.0 3-15…..-10.8 4-22….-14.2 5-29….-17.7 5-30….-18.0 7-3…….-14.1

The VP anomaly forecast for this week is a blend of phase 6 and phase 7. The GEFS has been really struggling with this. Notice how poorly it did with its forecast from a week ago. So it looks like the signal is more like a La Niña standing wave. This is where we sometimes get these interference patterns which can make the RMM charts very noisy. New forecast for this week Old forecast from last week

The Euro seasonal had it.

The US is on track for the 2nd warmest December behind 2015.

It’s tough for the -AO to have the intended effect when it’s up against a 5 sigma Aleutians Ridge. This may be the strongest positive 500 mb height anomaly on record in that area for the month of December. So it results in the very deep -PNA trough over the Western US.

It actually feels cold for a change. NYC down to 25°. But this is the 8th latest 25° or lower in NYC. This is 15 days late for NYC with the average first day on December 5th since 2010. Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 1974 03-25 (1974) 20 01-14 (1975) 20 294 2015 03-29 (2015) 25 01-04 (2016) 14 280 2012 03-06 (2012) 25 01-02 (2013) 22 301 2001 03-27 (2001) 24 12-30 (2001) 22 277 1990 03-08 (1990) 25 12-25 (1990) 22 291 1948 03-13 (1948) 17 12-24 (1948) 21 285 1998 03-13 (1998) 23 12-22 (1998) 22 283 1997 03-16 (1997) 25 12-22 (1997) 25 280 2021 03-22 (2021) 23 12-20 (2021) 25 272

I wonder if the new indoor ski model will gain in popularity? https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-skiing-can-survive-climate-change-11612969209 Downhill skiing could become an increasingly exotic proposition in a warming world. By midcentury, the U.S. could see 90 fewer days below freezing each year, according to a 2016 study published in the Journal of Climate and based on data from the federally funded North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Nearly all ski areas in the U.S. are projected to have at least a 50% shorter season by 2050, according to a 2017 study funded by the Environmental Protection Agency and published in the Global Environmental Change journal. SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS What do you think the ski industry needs to do to adapt to a warmer world, if anything? Join the conversation below. Higher temperatures make snow more elusive on the slopes, cutting into revenues for ski areas. Low snow years between 1999 and 2010 already cost ski areas an estimated $1 billion in revenue, according to a 2012 analysis commissioned by the nonprofits Protect Our Winters and the Natural Resources Defense Council.

Maybe all you guys throwing weenies should try out for the Nathan’s hot dog eating contest.

Not a surprise given how the models have been unsuccessfully trying to weaken the La Niña standing wave near Australia. New run Old run

Yeah, the standing wave near Australia is classic La Niña. It acts to pump the Aleutians Ridge and cause a deep -PNA trough over the Western US. While the individual MJO composites don’t always match, this month is very close to the La Niña December forcing composite.

While no piece of guidance excels at snowfall forecasts beyond 120 hrs, the GFS has been really struggling. It has had numerous snowy forecasts beyond day 5 since late November that never verified. The upgraded Euro has been doing much better with very little snow in the forecast. So we may need the Euro and EPS on our side for a more realistic chance of snow.

That’s why getting a favorable Pacific is so important for our area.

That was one of the reasons that the original board split into regional forums. There is just too much variation between New England, our area, and DC to Philly. Some teleconnection patterns favor one area but not the others. It’s always a big win if all 3 areas can do well at the same time.

High temperatures usually beat expectations when we have a deep trough over the Western US. The longer range forecasts for Christmas underestimated the strength of the SE Ridge. But you could see the risk of SE Ridge from the strong -PNA even though the models didn’t show it 10 days ago. New run Old run

The Euro seasonal did a great job with the December and November forecast.

It’s not a matter of being impatient. We just don’t want to be in the NYC below 3” December La Niña club. Very disappointing to see things getting pushed back now into early January. The new 91-20 climate normals seasonal snowfall in NYC is 29.8”. NYC has never reached 30.0” in a La season with under 3.0” in December since 1950. This must be related to the fact that the good La Niña years for snowfall get off to an early start since they are front-loaded. NYC December snowfall during La Ninas and seasonal snowfall. 2017…..7.7….40.9 2016….3.2….30.2 2011…..0.0….7.4 2010….20.1….61.9 2008….6.0…..27.6 2007….2.9……11.9 2005….9.7……40.0 2000….13.4…..35.0 1999…….T…….16.3 1998…..2.0……12.7 1995…..11.5…..75.6 1988…..0.3……8.1 1984…..5.5…..24.1 1975…..2.3…..17.3 1974……0.1…..13.1 1973…..2.8….23.5 1971…….T……22.9 1970……2.4….15.5 1964……3.1….24.4 1955…...3.3…33.5 1954…...0.1….11.5 1949……1.5….14.0

We have built up some pretty high temperature departures on the month so far. NYC….+5.7…EWR…+7.2….LGA….+6.2….JFK…..+5.9. With the much warmer 1991-2020 climate normals, all we need is a +3 or higher to finish in the top 10 warmest Decembers. The latest ensembles have around a +2 to +3 in the means for the next 10 days.

NYC is currently in 4th place for warmest December 1st to 17th. A large part of the country is also having top 5 warmth. 7 of the top 10 warmest readings have been since the late 1990s. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Dec 17 Missing Count 1 2015-12-17 52.0 0 2 2001-12-17 50.1 0 3 1998-12-17 49.8 0 4 2021-12-17 46.6 0 5 1953-12-17 45.0 0 6 2012-12-17 44.8 0 - 2011-12-17 44.8 0 7 1999-12-17 44.4 0 8 1897-12-17 44.3 0 9 1956-12-17 44.0 0 - 1879-12-17 44.0 2 10 1923-12-17 43.8

I don’t think that we are downplaying anything. The entire Northern Hemisphere land area is coming off the warmest fall on record. So it’s no surprise December has been more like a fall month than winter. This forum contains short and long range forecast discussions. So it’s natural to look forward to getting a possibly better pattern in early January.There have been no claims on how long any improved pattern could last. Let’s just wait and see what we can get in early January. Even if a better pattern compared to what we have now lasts only a few weeks, we’ll take it. Very hard to extrapolate a whole month based on an early January snapshot. Things could shift more or less favorable in the next two weeks.

Nice paper. We are on track to see one of the strongest Aleutians Ridges on record for the month of December. This is a much more exaggerated ridge than we typically see with La Ninas. Maybe the typhoon recurve, record low and wave break near Japan, and record warm WPAC SSTs contributed. Even without the MJO, the La Niña composite favors a shift of this ridge closer to the West Coast in January. It can be a much better pattern then we have now if the -NAO remains negative. So some more things to think about as we head into early January. Record December Aleutians Ridge Normal La Niña December composite much weaker January La Niña shift east closer to the West Coast