bluewave

Imagine how many 90° days JFK would have if Jamaica Bay was as warm as Biscayne Bay.

Models lack the resolution to show those finer details. That’s why when they show upper 90s to near 100° in interior NJ those highs usually verify for EWR and LGA. The other thing is that the warmth on the first day of deep SW flow usually beats guidance. Then the heat on the next few days start from a higher launching point than forecast. Sometimes, more morning WSW flow verifies on Long Island before the sea breeze arrives. So areas near and north of the LIE can make a run in 95° before temperatures fall back.

Even SW Nassau should reach 90° before any sea breezes arrive. You can see a deep SW flow from the 5 boroughs westward. Most spots on LI from Sunrise highway north should also reach 90°. Both the Euro and GFS have +20c 850s on Wed, Thurs, and Fri.

Omaha is the most recent record flash flood. Luckily, these people were rescued from the elevator and made it out OK.

Euro and GFS both agree that the usual warm spots could approach 100° this week.

ENSO has pretty much been irrelevant for the last three winters. 18-19 and 19-20 were El Niño’s that never coupled. The actual patterns were La Niña-like with below normal snowfall and a raging polar vortex in 19-20. Last winter was a moderate La Niña with a +PNA and near record -AO. So not much resemblance to a La Niña. As always, we will have near to above normal snowfall if blocking shows up again. But below normal snowfall if the blocking is lackluster. Hard to believe the only winters with below snowfall since 02-03 were 06-07, 07-08, 12-13, 18-19, and 19-20.

10 out of 11 weekends since Memorial Day with at least a T of rain. Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Precipitation 2021-05-29 0.58 2021-05-30 1.15 2021-05-31 T 2021-06-01 0.00 2021-06-02 T 2021-06-03 0.41 2021-06-04 0.19 2021-06-05 0.00 2021-06-06 0.00 2021-06-07 0.04 2021-06-08 2.19 2021-06-09 0.53 2021-06-10 0.00 2021-06-11 T 2021-06-12 T 2021-06-13 T 2021-06-14 0.16 2021-06-15 0.01 2021-06-16 0.00 2021-06-17 0.00 2021-06-18 0.00 2021-06-19 0.05 2021-06-20 0.00 2021-06-21 T 2021-06-22 0.17 2021-06-23 0.00 2021-06-24 0.00 2021-06-25 0.00 2021-06-26 0.07 2021-06-27 0.00 2021-06-28 0.00 2021-06-29 0.00 2021-06-30 0.54 2021-07-01 0.94 2021-07-02 1.53 2021-07-03 0.05 2021-07-04 0.00 2021-07-05 0.00 2021-07-06 0.55 2021-07-07 T 2021-07-08 0.08 2021-07-09 1.60 2021-07-10 T 2021-07-11 T 2021-07-12 0.69 2021-07-13 0.01 2021-07-14 0.07 2021-07-15 T 2021-07-16 0.00 2021-07-17 2.28 2021-07-18 T 2021-07-19 T 2021-07-20 0.00 2021-07-21 0.05 2021-07-22 0.00 2021-07-23 T 2021-07-24 0.00 2021-07-25 0.37 2021-07-26 0.08 2021-07-27 T 2021-07-28 0.04 2021-07-29 0.57 2021-07-30 0.00 2021-07-31 0.00 2021-08-01 0.13 2021-08-02 0.00 2021-08-03 0.00 2021-08-04 0.00 2021-08-05 0.00 2021-08-06 0.00 2021-08-07 T 2021-08-08 M

Consistent pattern over the last year of tucked in lows near the Jersey Shore. Several tropical systems since last summer and winter storms in the same location. Now we have this compact low with a very well defined circulation. Station Number: NJ-CN-26 Station Name: Winslow Twp 5.7 SSE Observation Date 8/8/2021 7:00 AM Submitted 8/08/2021 7:09 AM Total Precip Amount 3.49 in.

The South Shore barrier islands get the cooling sea breeze influence first. Then it makes it to sunrise followed by the Southern State snd Hempstead turnpike. The big 90 day leader on Long Island in near and north of the LIE.

I wasn’t criticizing the placement of the JFK ASOS. It's got a great sitting in accordance with all the ASOS guidelines. It’s located near the NE portion of the airport not far from SW Nassau.

Looks like the winds will finally go SW from Wed into Fri. So that will probably be the next shot for the warm spots to go 95+.

The more humid onshore flow since 2015 could be related to the AMOC slowdown. High pressure keeps building east of New England where that warm pool is located. Notice how the ridge was to our west in 2010 giving us the record westerly flow heat. The changes in the Pacific since 2015 are also influencing the pattern.

It’s great that you got a reply. But the station he referenced was Chesapeake Virginia. Central Park is NYC. Chesapeake Airport - KCPK 2800 Airport Drive Chesapeake, Virginia 23323 Chesapeake Airport Authority Manager: Mr. Chris Schrantz Chairman: Mr. C. Cowling Telephone: (757) 432-8110 E-Mail: [email protected] Fax: (757) 432-8410 E-Mail: [email protected]

A nice benefit of the onshore flow.

The PNA continues to set new all-time records highs each day. So a major drop coming up. This may be why the models are flipping around so much with our daily wind direction and temperatures over the next week.

But the actual rank is by the temperature. Notice how the top 10s are listed on the NWS site. Several years can be tied but the next year after the tie doesn’t skip a rank. 2020 was still the 5th warmest February behind the two ties at 3rd and 4th warmest. https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/warmcoldmonths.pdf

Yeah, I would be curious to see how they respond to a simple analysis like we have done on this forum. JFK has seen a similar rise in JJA temperatures as the other stations. You can see the big giveaway that the NYC ASOS went from the sun to deep shade. Notice how the average minimum JJA temperature rose in line with the other stations since 1951-1980. But the average high from 1951-1980 to 2011-2020 is virtually unchanged. JJA 1950-1981 to 2011-2020 temperature change NYC max….83.0…83.2….+0.2 min…..66.0…68.2….+2.2 EWR max…83.4…85.3…..+1.9 min….65.8….67.8…..+2.0 LGA max…82.0….84.4…..+2.4 min….66.8….69.9…..+3.1 JFK max….80.5….82.5…..+2.0 min…..65.4….67.7……+2.3

NYC actually had a 10.00 +July but Miami didn’t. Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jul Season Mean 5.36 5.36 2021 11.09 11.09 2020 6.58 6.58 2019 5.77 5.77 2018 7.45 7.45 2017 4.19 4.19 2016 7.02 7.02 2015 3.98 3.98 2014 5.59 5.59 2013 2.84 2.84 2012 4.21 4.21 2011 3.03 3.03 2010 2.60 2.60 Monthly Total Precipitation for Miami Area, FL (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jul Season Mean 8.70 8.70 2021 8.18 8.18 2020 10.26 10.26 2019 10.54 10.54 2018 8.02 8.02 2017 12.45 12.45 2016 4.11 4.11 2015 5.91 5.91 2014 10.29 10.29 2013 12.70 12.70 2012 8.92 8.92 2011 5.71 5.71 2010 7.36 7.36

The NWS had their major upgrade back in the 1990s. So it was a joint effort between the NWS and FAA. Each ASOS has to maintain sitting rules which are in the handbook for accurate measurements. I believe the NWS Eastern region HQ near ISP is in charge of maintaining the network So that may be the place to ask about the Central Park ASOS violating the sitting rules with trees blocking the sensors. https://www.weather.gov/erh/ERDivisions

The ASOS at JFK is near a marshy area right on Jamaica Bay. So it’s always going to have a lower amount of 90° days than LGA and EWR. Getting over 20 days requires a high number of westerly flow days which has only happened 3 times. Even so,JFK still had numerous top 10s in recent years with all the humid onshore flow. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 32 0 2 1983 26 0 3 2002 21 0 4 1971 18 0 - 1949 18 0 5 2005 17 0 - 1991 17 0 6 2012 16 0 - 1959 16 3 - 1955 16 2 7 2016 15 0 - 1995 15 0 - 1961 15 0 8 1999 14 0 - 1988 14 0 - 1966 14 0 - 1952 14 0 9 2011 13 0 - 1993 13 0 - 1984 13 0 - 1977 13 0 - 1970 13 0 - 1969 13 0 - 1963 13 0 10 2020 12 0 - 2015 12 0 - 2006 12 0 - 2003 12 0 - 1978 12 0 - 1968 12 0 - 1953 12 0

We had 100° heat from coast to coast at the end of June. But the ridge quickly pulled back to the west in July. The 500mb height anomaly was an all-time June and July record for the Western US.

The higher dew points have been the big story on Long Island so far this summer. Islip had the highest June average dew point on record with July finishing 6th highest. The June average temperature was 7th warmest while July only ranked 19th.

Looks like we just set the new all-time positive PNA record. The previous highest was +3.328 on 7-2-82. These daily records are preliminary so we may have to wait for the CPC to post the official values at the end of the month. 05Aug2021 0.37339E+01

Looks like the coming warm up will be battling backdoor cold fronts. Notice how the weekend backdoor snuck up on the models. So we’ll have to see where the frontal boundary stalls out to know how warm the temperatures get here next week. I think the record +PNA is resulting in a stronger high over Canada this weekend. New run Old run