bluewave

It’s always challenging to restart a snowy pattern once it shuts off. This winter was a one month wonder for snowfall in January. The SE Ridge became too dominant in February. Last year had the great February snowfall pattern that quickly reversed for March. 19-20 didn’t have any snowy intervals. 18-19 had the snowy November and the snowfall didn’t restart until March. 17-18 needed a major SSW to restart the snowy pattern in March following the snowy late December to early January. Snowfall in 16-17 was pretty evenly distributed despite the record 40° winter average temperature. 15-16 had the record snows from late January into early February before the snowy pattern reversed.

Par for the course when banding is involved. There are always winners and losers in the same county or borough. Very sharp cutoff this year to the west with the progressive +AO. Last winter areas further west did better with the south based -AO tucked in storm track near SNJ.

The areas from JFK to LGA and east have reached 20”+. But areas near and west of NYC are all under 20”. Very progresssive +AO pattern favored eastern sections this year. NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 17.5 NJ HARRISON COOP 17.4 CT DARIEN 2.4 NW CoCoRaHS 17.4 CT DARIEN 1.8 ENE CoCoRaHS 17.3 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 17.1 NY GREENWOOD LAKE 3.0 SW CoCoRaHS 17.1 NY SHELTER ISLAND HEIGHTS 2.1 SSW CoCoRaHS 17.0 NY STATEN ISLAND 1.4 SE CoCoRaHS 16.3 NY BROOKLYN 3.1 NW CoCoRaHS 16.3 CT EAST HAVEN 3.5 SSW CoCoRaHS 16.2 NJ FAIR LAWN 1.2 SE CoCoRaHS 16.1 NJ NEW PROVIDENCE 0.8 ESE CoCoRaHS 16.0 NJ OAKLAND 0.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 15.8 NJ MONTCLAIR 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 15.5 NJ CLARK TWP 1.3 ENE CoCoRaHS 15.5 NJ NORTH ARLINGTON 0.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 15.3

Record highs possible on Sunday. Newark 3/6 69 in 1935 64 in 2004 62 in 1976+

3-15-99 was one of my favorite snowstorms of the 96-97 to 99-00 snow drought era. Very heavy wet snow resulted in numerous broken branches. Some parts of the region had power outages. Most of Long Island finished in 6-10” range. Great west based -AO block and evaporational cooling did the job. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...FINAL SNOWFALL TOTALS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1050 PM EST MON MAR 15 1999 LOCATION COUNTY SNOWFALL AMOUNT (IN) NEW YORK... CENTRAL PARK NEW YORK 4.0 JFK AIRPORT QUEENS 4.0 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT QUEENS 4.0 SOUTH NYACK ROCKLAND 9.0 OCEANSIDE NASSAU 5.8 DEER PARK SUFFOLK 8.0 HUNTINGTON STATION SUFFOLK 7.5 RIDGE SUFFOLK 7.0 COPIAGUE SUFFOLK 5.5 SOUTHHAMPTON SUFFOLK 9.0 STATEN ISLAND RICHMOND 4.5 WEST BABYLON SUFFOLK 6.5 LAKE RONKONKOMA SUFFOLK 9.5 CENTERPORT SUFFOLK 9.2 FARMINGVILLE SUFFOLK 7.0 MASSAPEQUA NASSAU 6.5 HICKSVILLE NASSAU 6.1 ALBERTSON NASSAU 6.4 BRIDGEHAMPTON SUFFOLK 9.0 NORWICH NASSAU 7.0 MINEOLA NASSAU 6.0 WHITE PLAINS WESTCHESTER 5.6 YORKTOWN HEIGHTS WESTCHESTER 10.0 ROCKY POINT SUFFOLK 6.5 LYNBROOK NASSAU 6.0 WADING RIVER SUFFOLK 7.0 ISLIP AIRPORT SUFFOLK 7.5 KINGS PARK SUFFOLK 11.0 SOUTH SETAUKET SUFFOLK 9.2 MT SINAI SUFFOLK 9.0 PORT JEFFERSON SUFFOLK 10.0 MEDFORD SUFFOLK 8.0 GRAVESEND KINGS 5.3 PATCHOGUE SUFFOLK 7.6 RONKONKOMA SUFFOLK 7.5 HOLBROOK SUFFOLK 8.0 NWS BROOKHAVEN SUFFOLK 8.0 CHESTER ORANGE 9.0 WARWICK ORANGE 9.0 PLUM ISLAND WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE ACROSS THE AREA AND SOME POWER OUTAGES.

Similar theme as recent days on the 12z EPS. Warmer than average pattern for early March with a dominant SE Ridge. Maybe the first run on 70° this spring for the warm spots on Sunday. The EPS gradually weakens the SE Ridge in mid-March with colder temperatures filtering in from the west. The monthly departure will probably be decided by the late month pattern which is still outside the best model range. We’ll probably get some clues from the March 5 Euro monthly update.

We’ll have a good idea of what the March departure may look like when the Euro monthly is released on the 5th. It has been doing a really good job lately.

Another only in the post 2010 climate record.

The extreme snowfall departure dipole betweenACY and BGM tells the story of the regional snowfall. It was the 10th snowiest season in ACY. But BGM was the 2nd least snowiest.Coastal sections right into New England did much better than the interior. Time Series Summary for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1 2010-04-30 58.1 0 2 1967-04-30 46.9 0 3 1996-04-30 46.4 0 4 2014-04-30 43.8 0 5 1979-04-30 43.1 0 6 2003-04-30 42.3 0 7 1964-04-30 38.1 0 8 2011-04-30 38.0 0 9 2018-04-30 34.1 0 10 2022-04-30 33.3 62 - 1987-04-30 33.3 0 Time Series Summary for Binghamton Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1 2016-04-30 32.0 0 2 2012-04-30 43.5 0 3 2022-04-30 44.9 61 4 1989-04-30 46.4 0 5 1969-04-30 52.0 0 6 1995-04-30 52.8 0 7 1992-04-30 56.0 0 8 1980-04-30 56.8 0 9 1981-04-30 59.3 0 10 2002-04-30 61.9 0

It finished at 37.1° or +0.9 in NYC. This was the 20th warmest NYC winter average temperature. So the smaller departures in the warmer climate are a bit deceptive. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2001-2002 41.5 0 2 2015-2016 41.0 0 3 2011-2012 40.5 0 4 1931-1932 40.1 0 5 1997-1998 39.6 0 6 2016-2017 39.3 0 7 2019-2020 39.2 0 8 1990-1991 39.1 0 9 1998-1999 38.6 0 10 1948-1949 38.5 0 11 1889-1890 38.4 0 12 1952-1953 38.1 0 13 1982-1983 37.9 0 - 1936-1937 37.9 0 14 1996-1997 37.8 0 - 1932-1933 37.8 0 15 1949-1950 37.6 2 16 1974-1975 37.5 0 - 1879-1880 37.5 2 17 1953-1954 37.4 0 18 2005-2006 37.3 0 19 1991-1992 37.2 0 - 1951-1952 37.2 2 20 2021-2022 37.1 0

This year looks like the NYC snowfall totals are accurate. The area around Manhattan, Staten Island, and NE NJ all had similar amounts. A bit of a local snow hole there. NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 17.5 NJ HARRISON COOP 17.4 NJ TENAFLY 1.3 W CoCoRaHS 17.4 CT DARIEN 2.4 NW CoCoRaHS 17.4 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 17.1 NJ LITTLE FALLS TWP 0.5 WNW CoCoRaHS 17.1 NY SHELTER ISLAND HEIGHTS 2.1 SSW CoCoRaHS 17.0 CT HIGGANUM 0.8 NE CoCoRaHS 16.8 NY STATEN ISLAND 1.4 SE CoCoRaHS 16.3 NY BROOKLYN 3.1 NW CoCoRaHS 16.3 CT EAST HAVEN 3.5 SSW CoCoRaHS 16.2 NJ FAIR LAWN 1.2 SE CoCoRaHS 16.1 NJ NEW PROVIDENCE 0.8 ESE CoCoRaHS 16.0 NJ CLARK TWP 1.3 ENE CoCoRaHS 15.5 NJ MONTCLAIR 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 15.4 NJ OAKLAND 0.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 15.3

ISP is our only major station so far to exceed the new higher 1991-2020 seasonal snowfall normals. Station…..2021-2022 snowfall….1991-2020 average NYC….17.5….29.8….-12.3 JFK….21.2….25.9……-4.7 LGA….23.7….29.8…..-6.1 ISP…..35.4….31.8……+3.6 EWR….17.1…..31.5…..-14.4 BDR….25.7….33.6…..-7.9

The historic +13.3 departure in December 2015 marked the shift to much warmer winters. This February is the 16th winter month out of the last 21 with above normal average temperatures. It’s also a record breaking 7th warmer than normal winter in a row since 2015-2016. The new 1991-2020 normal NYC winter average temperature for NYC is 36.2°. So this is the first winter after the increase from the 1981-2010 average of 35.1°. NYC Feb 22….+1.4 Jan 22….-3.2 Dec 21….+4.7 Feb 21….-1.1 Jan 21….+2.2 Dec 20…+1.7 Feb 20…+4.8 Jan 20….+6.5 Dec 19….+0.8 Feb 19….+0.9 Jan 19….-0.1 Dec 18…+2.6 Feb 18…+6.7 Jan 18….-0.9 Dec 17…..-2.5 Feb 17…..+6.3 Jan 17….+5.4 Dec 16….+0.8 Feb 16….+2.4 Jan 16….+1.9 Dec 15….+13.3 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Season Mean Avg Temperature Departure 2021-2022 37.1 +0.9 2020-2021 36.1 +1.0 2019-2020 39.2 +4.1 2018-2019 36.3 +1.2 2017-2018 36.2 +1.1 2016-2017 39.3 +4.2 2015-2016 41.0 +6.0

They release the new monthly forecast on the 5th of every month. So we’ll have to wait until next weekend to see the March forecast. They initialize the forecast on March 1st.

The Euro monthly forecast for February did a great job.

It’s been easier for ISP to get 12”+snowstorms than NYC since 2010.There have been 10 events at ISP and only 6 in NYC. Both stations require a strong +PNA. But the -AO is more important for NYC. It allows the upper low to close off further to the SW. While a -AO is still favored for ISP, they can still get 12”+ events with a +AO. Slower closing off storms with a +AO can give them 12”+ since they are located further east. 10 snowstorm 500 mb composite since 2010 for ISP 6 snowstorm 500 mb composite for NYC

We have to view the +AO configuration this winter in the broader context of what the other telconnections were doing. The strong Janaury +PNA put the trough in the East. But the +AO prevented the upper lows from closing off until the surface lows got east of the benchmark. Last winter the upper lows were closing off early to our SW with the strong south based -AO. The surface lows all tucked in near SNJ. So Binghamton is currently in 2nd place for lowest seasonal snowfall through the 25th. While ACY is currently the 10th snowiest on record. The places were reversed last winter. BGM was 16th snowiest with ACY the 17th least snowiest. Time Series Summary for BINGHAMTON (GREATER AP), NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to May 15 Missing Count 1 2016-05-15 32.0 0 2 2022-05-15 43.0 79 3 2012-05-15 43.5 0 4 1989-05-15 47.8 0 5 1969-05-15 52.0 0 6 1995-05-15 52.8 0 7 1992-05-15 56.0 0 8 1980-05-15 56.8 0 9 1981-05-15 59.3 0 10 2002-05-15 61.9 0 Time Series Summary for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to May 15 Missing Count 1 2010-05-15 58.1 0 2 1967-05-15 46.9 0 3 1996-05-15 46.4 0 4 2014-05-15 43.8 0 5 1979-05-15 43.1 0 6 2003-05-15 42.3 0 7 1964-05-15 38.1 0 8 2011-05-15 38.0 0 9 2018-05-15 34.1 0 10 2022-05-15 33.3 79 - 1987-05-15 33.3 0 Time Series Summary for Binghamton Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to May 15 Missing Count 1 2017-05-15 135.2 0 2 1994-05-15 131.3 0 3 1996-05-15 131.2 5 4 1993-05-15 122.7 0 5 1956-05-15 122.6 0 6 2003-05-15 117.6 0 7 2011-05-15 117.3 1 8 1978-05-15 115.3 0 9 1970-05-15 114.0 0 10 2001-05-15 112.6 0 11 1971-05-15 108.6 0 12 1958-05-15 108.3 0 13 2005-05-15 106.5 0 14 2004-05-15 106.4 0 15 1972-05-15 106.2 0 16 2021-05-15 105.0 0 Time Series Summary for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to May 15 Missing Count 1 1973-05-15 0.4 0 2 2020-05-15 0.5 0 3 1995-05-15 0.8 0 4 1950-05-15 1.6 0 5 2002-05-15 2.6 0 6 1998-05-15 3.0 0 7 1992-05-15 3.2 0 - 1951-05-15 3.2 0 8 1981-05-15 3.3 0 9 1947-05-15 4.2 7 10 2012-05-15 4.3 0 11 1957-05-15 4.6 0 12 1945-05-15 5.2 122 13 1999-05-15 5.7 0 - 1997-05-15 5.7 0 14 1949-05-15 6.2 0 15 2007-05-15 6.5 0 16 1975-05-15 7.1 0 17 2021-05-15 7.3 0

The snowfall distribution this winter was the opposite of last year with the progressive +AO pattern. Coastal sections did much better than interior areas this winter. Last winter the south based -AO allowed the storms to tuck in near SNJ with heavier snowfall further to the west.

A record breaking 7th warmer than average winter in a row for our area. The SE Ridge or WAR has been a dominant player since the historic December 2015 +13.3 departure. So the limited colder departures end up further west away from this persistent 500 mb height anomaly.

The only .5 radial ice measurements appear to be in Eastern PA.

The measurement for Boxing Day at ISP was correct. The best banding with that one was closer to NE NJ. Much less out across Suffolk. https://www.weather.gov/okx/storm12262010 SUFFOLK COUNTY... UPTON 18.8 100 PM 12/27 NWS OFFICE NORTH BABYLON 18.5 845 AM 12/27 PUBLIC PATCHOGUE 17.0 900 AM 12/27 PUBLIC CENTEREACH 17.0 930 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER WEST ISLIP 16.0 1215 PM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER EAST NORTHPORT 15.5 715 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER SOUND BEACH 15.5 1200 PM 12/27 NWS EMPLOYEE NORTHPORT 15.2 138 PM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER CENTERPORT 15.0 650 AM 12/27 COOP-OBSERVER BLUE POINT 15.0 1100 AM 12/27 PUBLIC EAST SETAUKET 15.0 715 AM 12/27 PUBLIC MOUNT SINAI 14.2 1255 PM 12/27 NWS EMPLOYEE ISLIP AIRPORT 14.2 100 PM 12/27 FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER QUOGUE 14.0 1100 AM 12/27 PUBLIC SHOREHAM 14.0 900 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER SAYVILLE 14.0 1000 AM 12/27 PUBLIC HOLBROOK 12.5 900 AM 12/27 PUBLIC BAITING HOLLOW 12.0 145 PM 12/27 PUBLIC SMITHTOWN 11.5 1000 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER PORT JEFFERSON 11.0 800 AM 12/27 PUBLIC DIX HILLS 10.7 900 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER FLANDERS 10.0 620 AM 12/27 TRAINED SPOTTER

The big CMC upgrade allowed it to move into 2nd place behind the Euro. The UKMET fell back to 3rd and the GFS 4th place. So this matches the 5 day errors we have seen with our storm tracks. The Euro and CMC have been the leaders. The CMC even had that Sunday run back in January which showed the blizzard ahead of the Euro and GFS. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/headlines/acc_31days/ https://dd.weather.gc.ca/doc/genots/2021/11/26/NOCN03_CWAO_262118___50159 MAJOR UPGRADE OF WEATHER AND ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION SYSTEMS OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF CANADA ON DECEMBER 1, 2021, THE CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE (CMC) OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF CANADA (MSC) WILL IMPLEMENT MAJOR UPGRADES TO ITS WEATHER AND ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION SYSTEMS. THESE UPDATES ARE THE RESULT OF OVER TWO YEARS OF RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT, AND TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER AND WILL PERMIT THE ADDITION OF OVER 170 INNOVATIONS IN SOME 31 ATMOSPHERIC, OCEANIC, HYDROLOGICAL, AND SURFACE FORECASTING SYSTEMS.

We have another wacky weather stat for our new post 2010 climate. Unusually low snowfall at ISP in December and February following 25”+ in January. ISP is currently around 35” for DJF. The other DJF winter periods finished in the 44” to 57” range. Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Jan Feb Season 2010-2011 14.9 34.4 3.9 53.2 2021-2022 0.3 31.8 3.3 35.4 2014-2015 0.4 30.2 13.4 44.0 1977-1978 0.2 27.7 28.9 56.8 2013-2014 8.1 25.2 24.5 57.8

It was the warmest December on record for the CONUS. All our local stations were top 2 or top 3 warmest. Winter was loaded into January this year.

January was the big winter month this year. December had extended record warmth and very little snow. February featured intermittent record warmth with weaker cool downs in between.