bluewave

The 36° degree difference between the high and low at JFK is the 2nd greatest on record for May. Just goes to show how dry it has been. This is closer to normal for Tucson, Arizona. CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 434 PM EDT SAT MAY 22 2021 ................................... ...THE KENNEDY NY CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MAY 22 2021... VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME. CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1948 TO 2021 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 94R 148 PM 94 1992 70 24 73 MINIMUM 58 243 AM 43 1990 54 4 52 AVERAGE 76 62 14 63 ...THE TUCSON AZ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MAY 21 2021... CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1895 TO 2021 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 89 325 PM 107 2005 94 -5 89 MINIMUM 68 1159 PM 42 1899 63 5 53 AVERAGE 79 78 1 71

JFK tied the record high of 94° today. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 0434 PM EDT SAT MAY 22 2021 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT KENNEDY NY... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 94 WAS SET AT KENNEDY NY TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 94 SET IN 1992.

The 93°at JFK is just under the 94° record high. 22 May 1:51 pm 92 52 26 WNW 16 10.00 FEW060,SCT190,BKN250 30.12 1020.4 30.13 93 67

Newark is close with a high of 94° so far today. 22 May 1:51 pm 93 54 27 NW 13 10.00 FEW140,FEW200,OVC250 30.11 1020.4 30.13 94 75

Easy to beat guidance with such dry conditions. Newark Liberty CLOUDY 92 52 25 NW13G21

91° at Newark with the warm downslope flow.

Higher population in Manhattan during those years than today. the Manhattan island population in 1900 was even larger (1.85 million persons in 1900) than today 1.54 million in 2000), due to turn-of-century immigration. So to the extent that population is an indicator of UHI strength, the relative 1900 UHI magnitude may be partial- ly understandable. http://www.theurbanclimatologist.com/uploads/4/4/2/5/44250401/gaffinetal2008nycuhiandtemptrends.pdf

Slowing AMOC and rapidly warming Gulf Of Maine have gone together with the anomalous ridging over New England and the Canadian Maritimes. So I guess that it’s no surprise that the seasonal models have a similar pattern this summer. It will be interesting to see if we can make it four summers in a row.

It’s been tough to bet against the greatest 500mb height anomalies setting up over New England since 2018. The stronger ridging to our NE has allowed for higher dewpoints and more onshore flow. If you want more westerly flow dry heat events like 2010 to 2013, then the best 500 mb anomalies need to be over the Great Lakes.

Second May in a row up at BTV with a top three warmest monthly maximum temperature. RECORD REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT 135 AM EDT FRI MAY 21 2021 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT BURLINGTON VT... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 92 WAS SET AT BURLINGTON VT YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 91 SET IN 1975. Time Series Summary for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx) - Month of May Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 95 0 2 2017 93 0 - 1977 93 0 3 2021 92 11 - 2010 92 0 - 1987 92 0 - 1979 92 0 - 1978 92 0 - 1929 92 0 - 1911 92 0

Detroit was very close to the all-time May 500 mb height record this morning. Had we seen this anomalous a ridge during the summer, it would probably mean temperatures approaching or exceeding 100° In the Northeast. So it will be interesting to see if Newark can sneak in at least 95° max this month.

While specific rainfall forecasts past 5 days can be low skill, the Euro has a chance of rain on Memorial Day weekend. Every Memorial Day weekend for the last 5 years had measurable rainfall one out of the three days. We just missed a deluge in 2015 with 3.73 on Tuesday May 31st at Newark. Newark Memorial Day bolded 5-25-20…..5-23….0.79 5-27-19……5-26…0.20 5-28-18…..5-27….0.87 5-29-17…..5-29…..0.14 5-30-16……5-30…..1.57…….our last very dry spring Tuesday 5-31-15……3.73

If the long range guidance is correct, then the humidity will probably increase as we head into June. So this is when we could start to see better chances for rain again. The record breaking ridge just to our west is acting as a block. EPS lifts the ridge axis north to near the Canadian Maritimes to start June. This is where the ridge axis was for the last 3 summers with the warm and moist onshore flow. So it will be interesting to see if we can make it 4 in a row. EPS May 31- June 7 forecast

This was the lowest relative humidity 90° day at Newark in May since 2016. Came in with a relative humidity of 19% at 4pm. Matches up with this being the driest spring at Newark since 2016. Newark Liberty MOSUNNY 90 43 19 5-26-16…..91/43/19% 5-25-16…..90/39/17% Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Mar through May Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 1935 4.54 0 2 2016 6.35 0 3 1941 6.50 0 4 1965 6.64 0 5 1995 6.81 0 6 2021 6.95 13 7 1985 6.99 0 8 1963 7.19 0 9 1959 7.61 0 10 1938 7.68 0 11 1981 8.13 0 12 2006 8.19 0 13 1962 8.25 0 14 1992 8.29 0 - 1971 8.29 0 15 1964 8.35 0

Highs close to 90° today with the extremely dry forecast soundings.

Looks like we will have to keep watering through at least the weekend. The record rains have been along the western side of the ridge. This is our 2nd dry spring in row.

Models have been really struggling with the timing of the backdoor cold front later this week. Looks like Wednesday could be the warmest day of the week now. We’ll have to wait for later runs to refine the timing. In general, it seems like guidance has been jumping around quite a bit beyond 3-5 days recently. The very amplified pattern has been a challenge to the models.

The ridge should be really impressive before the front arrives later in the week. 500mb heights will be close to record levels in areas just to our west. Rainfall will be much needed as the Euro has a lower dewpoint warm up.

12z Euro has something for everyone. The warm spots could see their first 90° of the season on Thursday. Then it has a backdoor for Friday. It’s a compromise between the warmer CMC and cooler GFS. Models struggling with where too place the ridge axis and offshore low.

That was the famous sensor calibration error when the temperature at Newark stopped recording. While the temperature was missing at Newark, Harrison reached 106°. But they went with the last reading at 12:38 at Newark of 103° before the outage. Central Park made it to 103° just after 3pm with all the foliage blocking the sensor. So the actual high at Newark was probably around 106°. Data for July 6 - HARRISON, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Precipitation Snowfall Snow Depth 2010-07-06 106 80 0.00 0.0 0 PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 509 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2010 ...HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR JULY 6TH BROKEN OR TIED AT ALL SIX WFO NEW YORK NY CLIMATE SITES. .....TEMPERATURE.....TIME (LDT).....PREVIOUS RECORD CENTRAL PARK NY........103............311 PM...........101 1999... LA GUARDIA NY..........103............342 PM...........101 1999... JFK ARPT NY............101...........1240 PM............99 1999... ISLIP NY...............101............255 PM............99 1999... BRIDGEPORT CT...........98...........1252 PM............98 1999... NEWARK NJ..............103*..........1234 PM...........102 1999... *NOTE: SENSOR CALIBRATION ERROR OCCURRED AT NEWARK NJ. OFFICIAL TEMPERATURE OF 103 WAS MEASURED BY FAA CONTRACT OBSERVER.

You can see how the more onshore flow since 2018 has allowed Harrison to pull ahead of Newark. During the previous years with less sea breeze activity, both stations were nearly equal in 90° days and summer maximum temperature. This reflects the record ridging near and east of New England last 3 summers producing more S to SSE flow. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 + Max Harrison 2020 31 96 39 98 2019 27 99 39 101 2018 36 98 47 101 2017 22 99 23 98 2016 40 99 40 100 2015 35 98 32 99 2014 15 98 16 95 2013 25 101 25 102 2012 33 104 35 103 2011 31 108 31 107 2010 54 103* 50 106 * 2010 thermometer malfunction at Newark during hottest day of year leaving high 3° too cool

90° days have been near record highs last few years away from the sea breeze. Farmingdale finished with 20 days last summer just behind 2010. LGA has had 3 top 5 finishes since 2015. Harrison, NJ was far enough from the Newark bay breeze to almost reach 50 days in 2018. Places like Newark airport and JFK are very sensitive to SSE flow. So they do better with SW to W flow. Harrison and Farmingdale only go back to 2000. But all of our hottest summers have occurred since then. Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 24 2 2 2020 20 2 3 2002 17 4 4 2005 15 1 5 2016 14 9 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 48 0 2 2018 38 0 3 2002 35 0 4 2020 34 0 - 1991 34 0 5 2016 32 0 Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 50 30 2 2018 47 0 - 2002 47 8 3 2005 41 9 4 2016 40 0 5 2020 39 0 - 2019 39 0

It’s interesting how blocking has less of a cooling influence as we move into the summer. In fact, our hottest summers since 2010 have had strong blocking patterns. The last 11 year summer composite has featured some of the strongest summer blocking on record. The period also featured our hottest summers on record. 9 out of 11 years recorded above average summer temperatures. Only 2014 and 2017 came in near or below average on the temperatures. But those summers had strong blocking like the warmer ones. The one difference is on the Pacific side. The warmer than average summers had the North Pacific ridge axis to the north of Hawaii. During the cooler 2014 and 2017 summers, this ridge was located over Western North America. So we need blocking to combine with a stronger ridge near the PACNW for more comfortable temperatures.

The summer maximums are rising nearly as fast as the minimums. The minimums are increasing only about a tenth of a degree per decade faster. Since 1981, the highs are increasing at +0.6°per decade vs +0.7° for the lows. Last summer was the 2nd warmest with numerous top 10s since 2015. We have also had numerous top 10 summers for 90° days away from the sea breeze. So the rising high temperatures have been driven by more 90° days while the 100°s have been fairly steady since 1981. 201006 - 201008 75.2°F 126 3.5°F 202006 - 202008 74.4°F 125 2.7°F 201606 - 201608 74.2°F 124 2.5°F 200506 - 200508 73.9°F 123 2.2°F 201106 - 201108 73.9°F 123 2.2°F 199906 - 199908 73.7°F 121 2.0°F 201206 - 201208 73.4°F 120 1.7°F 201806 - 201808 73.4°F 120 1.7°F 201906 - 201908 73.2°F 118 1.5°F 201506 - 201508 73.1°F 117 1.4°F 194906 - 194908 73.0°F 116 1.3°F Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 48 0 2 2018 38 0 3 2002 35 0 4 2020 34 0 - 1991 34 0 5 2016 32 0 6 1983 31 0 7 2005 30 0 - 1953 30 0 8 1955 29 0 - 1944 29 0 9 2012 28 0 - 1949 28 0 10 1959 27 0

The winter maximum temperatures have been more impressive than the summer maximums since the 2015-2016 super El Niño. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2017-2018 80 0 2 1998-1999 76 0 - 1948-1949 76 0 3 2016-2017 74 0 - 2001-2002 74 0 - 1996-1997 74 0 - 1953-1954 74 0 - 1949-1950 74 0 4 1984-1985 73 0 5 2006-2007 72 0 - 1982-1983 72 0 - 1946-1947 72 0 6 2015-2016 71 0 - 2013-2014 71 0 - 2010-2011 71 0 7 2019-2020 70 0 - 1997-1998 70 0 - 1978-1979 70 0 - 1938-1939 70 0 - 1931-1932 70 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2011 108 0 2 2001 105 0 - 1993 105 0 - 1966 105 0 - 1949 105 0 3 2012 104 0 - 1995 104 0 - 1936 104 0 4 2010 103 0 - 1999 103 0 - 1954 103 0 - 1948 103 0 5 2005 102 0 - 1994 102 0 - 1991 102 0 - 1977 102 0 - 1953 102 0 - 1952 102 0 - 1944 102 0 - 1943 102 0 6 2013 101 0 - 2006 101 0 - 1997 101 0 - 1988 101 0 - 1980 101 0 - 1957 101 0 - 1955 101 0 - 1933 101 0 7 2002 100 0 - 1986 100 0 - 1982 100 0 - 1973 100 0 - 1963 100 0 - 1959 100 0 - 1937 100 0 - 1934 100 0