bluewave

ISP tied their all-time February highest temperature of 68°. The 69° at JFK was 2nd warmest for the month. EWR added another 70° in February which ranks as 6th warmest for the month. So all our local stations have recorded repeated monthly top ranking high temperatures in recent years. The 80° at Newark in 2018 was one of the most extreme monthly high temperatures for any time of the year. The flow off the colder ocean that year kept the highs on Long Island lower. But the westerly flow yesterday allowed the most impressive records to occur on Long a Island. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 68 5 - 1976 68 0 2 1991 67 0 3 2017 65 0 4 2018 64 0 - 2016 64 0 5 2012 63 0 - 2002 63 0 - 1997 63 0 - 1985 63 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1997 71 0 2 2022 69 5 3 2017 68 0 - 1991 68 0 4 2011 67 0 - 2008 67 0 - 1976 67 0 5 2018 65 0 - 1996 65 0 - 1972 65 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2018 80 0 2 1949 76 0 3 2017 74 0 - 1997 74 0 - 1954 74 0 4 1985 73 0 5 2011 71 0 6 2022 70 5 - 1999 70 0 - 1939 70 0

Yeah, Newark hit 80° in February 2018. But areas to the east were cooler with more onshore flow. JFK and ISP beat their daily record highs today by 7° with the warm westerly flow. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 0438 PM EST WED FEB 23 2022 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT KENNEDY NY... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 69 WAS SET AT KENNEDY NY TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 62 SET IN 1990. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 0438 PM EST WED FEB 23 2022 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ISLIP NY... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 68 WAS SET AT ISLIP NY TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 61 SET IN 2012.

JFK and ISP are within a few degrees of their all-time February monthly high temperatures. Kennedy Intl MOSUNNY 68 42 38 W21G31 29.92S MacArthur/ISP MOSUNNY 66 46 48 W22G29 29.90R

Record warmth on Long Island with the westerly flow. Farmingdale MOSUNNY 65 54 67 W17 29.92F MacArthur/ISP CLOUDY 62 54 74 SW13 29.91F Stony Brook N/A 64 54 68 W6 N/A

I guess the closest to that would be July 1977 in NYC if you count the 104° high followed by a 58° low. Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature 1977-07-21 104 78 1977-07-22 88 68 1977-07-23 87 62 1977-07-24 90 70 1977-07-25 78 70 1977-07-26 82 62 1977-07-27 81 58

Pretty impressive to see 60° readings north to POU this early in the morning. Central Park CLOUDY 61 54 77 SW6 29.94S World Trd Ctr NOT AVBL Bronx Lehman C N/A 61 55 82 SW8 N/A LaGuardia Arpt CLOUDY 60 54 80 SW8 29.91S Poughkeepsie CLOUDY 60 54 80 S7

2003 to 2022 Coating to 6…Light 6-12…………Moderate 12-24………Heavy 24-36………Real Accumulations 1979 to 1993 Coating to 3….Light 3-6…………Moderate 6-12…….…Heavy 12-24……..Real Accumulations

The EPS has a colder start to March on the 1st . But warms up a few days later as the -EPO-PNA +AO pumps the SE Ridge. We’ll see if the ridge can build over the pole and drop the -AO during the 2nd week of March. It will have to be strong enough to push back against the SE Ridge.

With the March wavelengths, the -EPO-PNA +AO is warm for us. So we would need some help from a -AO or more +PNA for a cold month. Still to early to tell what the month will look like before we see how the models look next week.

It looks like the SE Ridge will continue to be a player heading into March. The EPS has a colder start to March around the 1st. Then the SE Ridge flexes again and we warm up.

The +PNA WAR pattern has produced rapid temperature changes with the warm ups being more extreme than the cool downs.

Wednesday into the weekend looks like our next chance at approaching a 50° drop.

Winter days reaching 50° or higher have become much more common. This is the 23rd day so far for NYC. Getting over 20 days a winter has become the new normal.

Here comes the next record breaking WPAC storm that’s going to pump the -EPO +PNA block in early March. But it looks like the forcing moving near the Maritime Continent will allow the -PNA to drop a few days later. Then another amplification of the block will allow the Arctic high to press.

Sloppy Presidents week for the ski resorts. Rain well into New England later tomorrow. Followed by a push of 60s right into Maine on Wednesday.

The big CMC upgrade allowed it to move into 2nd place behind the Euro. The UKMET fell back to 3rd and the GFS 4th place. So this matches the 5 day errors we have seen with our storm tracks. The Euro and CMC have been the leaders. The CMC even had that Sunday run back in January which showed the blizzard ahead of the Euro and GFS. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/headlines/acc_31days/ https://dd.weather.gc.ca/doc/genots/2021/11/26/NOCN03_CWAO_262118___50159 MAJOR UPGRADE OF WEATHER AND ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION SYSTEMS OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF CANADA ON DECEMBER 1, 2021, THE CANADIAN METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE (CMC) OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF CANADA (MSC) WILL IMPLEMENT MAJOR UPGRADES TO ITS WEATHER AND ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION SYSTEMS. THESE UPDATES ARE THE RESULT OF OVER TWO YEARS OF RESEARCH, DEVELOPMENT, AND TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER AND WILL PERMIT THE ADDITION OF OVER 170 INNOVATIONS IN SOME 31 ATMOSPHERIC, OCEANIC, HYDROLOGICAL, AND SURFACE FORECASTING SYSTEMS. FOR DETAILED INFORMATION ON THE INNOVATIONS AND THE RESULTING IMPACTS ON SERVICES THAT ARE REALIZED WITH THESE UPGRADES, PLEASE REFER TO THE MSC OPEN DATA WEB PORTAL AT THE FOLLOWING LINK (IN LOWER CASE): HTTPS://ECCC-MSC.GITHUB.IO/OPEN-DATA/MSC-DATA/CHANGELOG_NWP_EN/

Temperatures quickly rebound next several days. Long Island could approach record high temperatures this time. Euro has temperatures well into the 60s even for Long Island right ahead of the cold front on Wednesday.

Maybe a summer preview for the East. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 0730 AM EST SAT FEB 19 2022 ...ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH DEW POINT TEMPERATURE OF 72 DEGREES SET FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY AT JACKSONVILLE FL YESTERDAY... THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURE REACHED 72 DEGREES AT JACKSONVILLE ON FRIDAY FEBRUARY 18TH. THIS BREAKS THE ALL-TIME HIGHEST FEBRUARY DEW POINT TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 71 DEGREES SET ON 02-24-2019. DEW POINT TEMPERATURE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1948 AT JACKSONVILLE.

It’s pretty cool to see the HRRR generate some SBCAPE as the squall comes through this afternoon.

Yeah, it’s the 2nd squall behind that one producing the brief blizzard conditions.

Yeah, this wave break is leading to the -EPO +PNA block that the models are advertising. We saw something similar in early December with record WPAC low and typhoon a few days later. That locked in the record Aleutian Ridge -PNA pattern for all of December. So these wave breaks are key players in our weather patterns. It would be great if we had an artificial intelligence weather model which could identify these wave breaks months in advance.

There are a few different schools of thought on that. One is that the Euro RMM index is weaker than the GFS. But the VP anomalies for both models are identical. So I am not so sure this is a MJO difference. The MJO has been stuck in phase 3 all month. But the La Niña MJO composite shows a much different pattern than we have been getting. This leads me to believe that the MJO is not currently having much influence on the pattern. Remember, the MJO is only one part of the climate system. Sometimes it’s the dominant player and other times it isn’t. Actual pattern much different than MJO would suggest

The EPS has really been leading the way this winter on these big North Pacific blocking intervals. It spotted the late December shift going into January and then the GEFS eventually caught on . The GEFS is correcting toward the stronger EPS idea in recent runs. EPS GEFS has been struggling New run more like the Euro Older run too weak

NYC is +2.7 so far for February. Each cool down is followed by a more impressive warm up. So the coming week will be a continuation following the cool down this weekend. Looks like the month will end on a cold note as a major -EPO +PNA block sets up. Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Avg Temperature Departure 2022-02-01 -4.2 2022-02-02 5.7 2022-02-03 13.1 2022-02-04 7.5 2022-02-05 -11.2 2022-02-06 -10.8 2022-02-07 -0.9 2022-02-08 3.9 2022-02-09 2.7 2022-02-10 10.6 2022-02-11 12.4 2022-02-12 15.2 2022-02-13 -1.9 2022-02-14 -15.1 2022-02-15 -12.8 2022-02-16 2.5 2022-02-17 22.3 2022-02-18 8.6

Another big temperature swing coming up. Colder weekend before more 60°+ potential next week. February battle between the +PNA and WAR. +PNA WAR pattern