bluewave

More spring in the Rockies record warmth near record snow like we have seen in recent years. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1257 AM EST MON JAN 03 2022 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT GEORGETOWN DE... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 68 WAS TIED AT GEORGETOWN DE YESTERDAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 68 SET IN 2000. Public Information Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 359 PM EST Mon Jan 3 2022 ...UPDATED SNOWFALL REPORTS FOR MONDAY JANUARY 3RD... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Delaware... Sussex County... Georgetown 12.0 in 0346 PM 01/03 Trained Spotter

The Euro is back to being stronger with the Arctic outbreak next week. 12z January 11th

The 500 mb pattern with the ridge bridge near Alaska to Greenland can work for us with the right storm track. We also have another +PNA spike over the Rockies. So this may be our best shot of the season so far if things work out. While it’s not a perfect match, the Euro 500 mb pattern on Friday almost has a Feb 14 type look. Hopefully, we can put something together.

Starting to get some very light snow here in SW Suffolk.

I sure hope a model like that doesn’t replace the NAM. https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/environmental-modeling-center/fv3-convective-allowing-forecast-system NAM development was frozen after the March 2017 upgrade, and RAP/HRRR development with the WRF-ARW model will cease after the RAPv5/HRRRv4 upgrade in 2020. However, operational execution of these modeling and associated DA systems will continue until comparable FV3-based systems are able to give similar performance.

Yeah, we’ll need a further north track like the Euro to moisten up the lower layers. The 18z hi res NAM still further south. But it shares the very dry lower layer. This may come down to nowcast time.

This GFS forecast sounding highlights the uncertainty of where the northern snow cutoff from the dry air sets up.

Yeah, the 10° dew point line sets up near the I-78 corridor on the 12z Euro.

Looks like it will be the first time that ACY has so much snow on a day in January following a 60°+ day. We pulled this off during the 16-17 winter. But big January ACY snowstorms usually have the cold in place before the storm. So a very spring on the Rockies vibe. Biggest January snowstorms and day before high temperature Maximum 1-Day Total Snowfall for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Period of record: 1945-01-31 to 2022-01-01 1 14.3…23° 1987-01-26 2 13.2….32° 2018-01-04 3 12.9….29° 1964-01-13 4 12.7…..22° 1996-01-07 5 10.1…..37° 2016-01-23 6 8.3….37° 2000-01-25 7 8.0….47° 1961-01-19 8 7.7…36° 2011-01-08 9 7.6…..27° 2010-01-30 10 7.4….42° 1958-01-07

The 12z guidance would put ACY in top 10 snowiest January day range. Maximum 1-Day Total Snowfall for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Period of record: 1945-01-31 to 2022-01-01 1 14.3 1987-01-26 2 13.2 2018-01-04 3 12.9 1964-01-13 4 12.7 1996-01-07 5 10.1 2016-01-23 6 8.3 2000-01-25 7 8.0 1961-01-19 8 7.7 2011-01-08 9 7.6 2010-01-30 10 7.4 1958-01-07

This will have a very sharp cutoff line for snowfall in some parts of region with such low dewpoints nearby. KPOU GFS MOS GUIDANCE 1/02/2022 0600 UTC DT /JAN 2 /JAN 3 /JAN 4 / HR 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 00 06 X/N 53 17 32 10 37 TMP 48 48 51 48 39 31 24 19 17 26 29 29 22 18 15 14 14 25 34 30 27 DPT 46 42 34 28 23 19 15 12 9 12 10 6 6

I don’t mind waiting until the day before a storm for the models to settle on snowfall amounts. This seems to be common for us. But it’s more of a problem when the day before forecast is way off. The NAM was the model that got the January 2016 record snowfall event correct the day before while the Euro was too suppressed. January 2015 was a disappointment for most areas west of Suffolk based on forecasts the day before. So it doesn’t pay to get invested in snowfall amounts beyond a day or two.

It would be pretty wild if the record Aleutians block actually triggered an El Niño event.

Maybe this first Nino-like WWB and STJ enhanced storm track can be a preview of an El Niño for next winter? But then we’’ll need the WPAC to back off an let it couple. So we’ll see how things go. Brief SOI dip to negative 2 Jan 2022 1011.96 1007.80 -2.11 12.36 10.40 1 Jan 2022 1013.42 1008.00 3.82 12.84 10.62 31 Dec 2021 1014.44 1007.60 16.19 13.07 10.76 30 Dec 2021 1013.61 1006.95 15.26 12.88 10.73 29 Dec 2021 1010.94 1004.90 12.04 12.75 10.68 28 Dec 2021 1009.59 1000.95 25.53 12.29 10.74 27 Dec 2021 1009.20 1000.15 27.66 11.65 10.80 26 Dec 2021 1012.82 1000.10 46.71 11.43 10.90 25 Dec 2021 1015.80 1003.15 46.34 10.90 10.65 Nino-like WWB near Dateline

Wavelength spacing looks like it will be important behind the storm a few days earlier. Then it’s a battle of which ridge is stronger. If the ridge east of New England is stronger then a future run could tuck in a little more. Stronger blocking across the Arctic would continue with runs like today. So several days to go for clarification.

Stretched polar vortex into SE Canada with Arctic outbreak into the region several days after the storm.

Newark nearly caught 95-96 in just 33 days during 10-11. So while wall to wall November to April cold and snow is unlikely in a warmer climate, a shorter period of intense snowfall could eventually rival 95-96. Philly beat 95-96 in a much shorter period in 09-10. Same for Boston beating 95-96 in 2015. Maximum 33-Day Total Snowfall for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Missing Days 1 61.5 2011-01-27 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1 1996-04-30 78.4 0 2 1961-04-30 73.5 0 3 2011-04-30 68.2 0

3rd warmest December in NYC with many of the top ranking years since the late 90s. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015 50.8 0 2 2001 44.1 0 3 2021 43.8 0 4 1984 43.7 0 5 2006 43.6 0 6 2011 43.3 0 7 1998 43.1 0 8 1982 42.7 0 9 1990 42.6 0 10 1891 42.5 0 11 1994 42.2 0 12 1923 42.0 0 13 2012 41.5 0 14 1996 41.3 0 - 1953 41.3 0 15 1979 41.1 0 16 1956 40.9 0 - 1931 40.9 0 17 1971 40.8 0 18 2014 40.5 0 - 1965 40.5 0 19 1957 40.2 0 20 2018 40.1 0

Happy New Year everyone. After a mild start to the year, the Euro is bringing a very intense polar vortex to SE Canada. This is due to the very strong -EPO and +PNA around day 10. So it will be interesting to track the progress of this Arctic outbreak as we get closer.

A perfect Nov to Apr -NAO /-EPO pattern with a ridge near California. Maybe Walt can comment on what the long range forecasts looked like. I really got interested in longer range forecasting after reading Walt’s great AFD’s out of the Boston NWS office in the late 90s. Probably the greatest long range AFDs in NWS history.

I would consider 95-96 a wall to wall winter. Snowstorms from late November into April and 90.75” at BNL. Even though we got that big flood cutter in late January, the monthly average temperature was below freezing.. So consistent cold and snow from the fall into the spring. BNL https://www.bnl.gov/weather/4cast/MonthlySnowfall.htm 4.5…15.5…23.5…20.0…11.25…16.0…90.75 Monthly Mean Avg Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1995-1996 43.6 32.4 30.5 33.8 38.9 52.2 38.6

Hopefully, the EPS holds that 12z look going forward. It has been pretty volatile from run to run in recent days. Just goes to show important the forcing shifting east closer to phase 7-8 will be for our January snowfall potential.

Yeah, nice to see it finally roll east after being stuck for so long around those record SSTs near Australia and New Zealand. That’s why the EPS +PNA is so much better than just a few days ago. Even the CPC commented on the non canonical behavior of the recent forcing. The RMM indices indicate MJO-related convection in Phase 8, but this convection has not followed the canonical eastward propagating evolution of typical MJO events over recent weeks and may be more reflective of other tropical signals besides the MJO. Ensemble mean forecasts of the RMM indices suggest a westward retreat of the signal before weakening into the Week-2 period.

That EPS forecast is starting to look like something from late January 2015. When I made my comment about losing a favorable Atlantic the other day, it was based on the ridge being much further west in the old EPS forecast. That kind of blocking over Western North America could produce a 6”+ snowstorm in NYC even with a very +AO vortex. Old run I commented on ridge further west

The STJ may be getting a Nino-like boost with the current WWB near the dateline.