bluewave

Tough to keep up with all these record extremes.

6z Euro shifted east between MTP and BID.

A GFS-Euro blend has been the winning hand for short term track forecasts.

PSEG customers are rooting for a further east landfall on Long Island due to the precarious state of the power grid this summer. https://www.newsday.com/long-island/politics/lipa-nypa-1.50331708 Problems with three major power lines to Long Island — including total outages on two of the largest — led LIPA trustees on Wednesday to approve a measure to pay $67 million to fix a Holtsville power plant the state had planned to mothball. LIPA and grid manager PSEG Long Island also have put on hold plans to decommission small peak-power plants in Glenwood Landing and West Babylon to help make up the gap for the failure of the two power lines this summer, officials disclosed at a LIPA trustees meeting Wednesday morning. One of the failures involves a power cable owned by the New York Power Authority called Y-49. The cable failed Aug. 6, the fourth time in the past year, utility officials disclosed Wednesday. The Y-49 line has a capacity of 637 megawatts, nearly double the capacity of the Caithness power plant in Yaphank. Another line between the LIPA and Con Ed system known as Y-50 that provides 656 megawatts of capacity has also failed, officials also disclosed. The Neptune cable between Long Island and New Jersey was reduced to just over half its 660-megawatt capacity after a transformer failed earlier this year. It won't be back online until early 2022. Off-island transmission lines, including the Cross Sound Cable and the Norwalk to Northport cables, which remain fully operable, provide around 40% of Long Island's power. The Y-49 and Y-50 cables could be out for a month to 10 weeks, officials said.

Very humid WAR pattern to continue into late August.

Look what it took to erase that record warm pool near Japan.

We often get model convergence on the run when a tropical cyclone completes it turn to the north. The 0z runs were focused on Eastern Long Island for a landfall. Highest impacts located right along the eventual track of Henri. This is one of the smallest tropical cyclones to impact the area.

While Juan was a much stronger system, it also had a lack of frontal structure for such a far north hurricane.

Yeah, many members as far west as the CMC and UKMET.

No surprise that the 12z Euro came further west into Suffolk similar to many 6z EPS members.

It’s been tough to bet against more westerly tracks with record WAR.

There were a group of 6z EPS tracks which were further west like the UKMET and CMC. So a highly anticipated Euro and EPS run coming up. We’ll find out if the 12z GFS was exhibiting its eastern bias.

I agree. Should be an interesting next few model runs. Remember the Euro has been underestimating the the WAR. It didn’t start showing Fred going further to our west until practically nowcast time.

The further west models merge with the small closed low in VA sooner.

That’s why I said west of Cape Cod. Any landfall in Rhode Island or Long Island would be the first recorded event to pass within 200 miles of Bermuda. Numerous models are showing a potential landfall somewhere in Suffolk county.

This is just another example of how extreme the WAR has become. Tropical cyclones that pass within 200 miles of Bermuda usually go OTS. Henri is on track to become the first tropical cyclone to landfall west of Cape Cod. Hermine in 2004 and another weak system in 1923 were the only two storms to impact Cape Cod.

This could be one of our longer 70°+ dew point streaks. The Euro has 70°+ dew points for the rest of the month. So we are on track for our first 6 year stretch of 50 days reaching the 70° dew point mark.

Very impressive dew points from Florida into SE Canada.

The near record low multiyear ice is one of the reasons that a favorable summer for sea ice retention can’t come close to pre-2007 levels. https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ Multiyear ice near record low http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2021/08/Figure4a-week31-350x254.jpg Figure 4a. This graph shows the near record-low amount of multiyear ice in the Arctic as of week 31 (July 30 to August 5) of the 2021 melt season, comparing this year to the same week in previous years of the satellite record that began in 1979. Historical data through 2020 are provided by Tschudi et al., 2019a and quicklook data for 2021 by Tschudi et al., 2019b Credit: Robbie Mallett High-resolution image http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/files/2021/08/Figure-4b-MYI-350x265.jpg Figure 4b. This graph compares the area of multiyear ice in the Arctic between 2021, 2020, and the average from 2008 to 2019 as it melts out throughout the spring and summer. The grey lines depict previous years for general comparison. The area is calculated by adding all pixels in the Arctic that are older than one year based on the NSIDC ice age data product, and multiplying by the area per pixel of each grid cell. Historical data through 2020 are provided by Tschudi et al., 2019a and quicklook data for 2021 by Tschudi et al., 2019b Credit: Robbie Mallett High-resolution image While the multiyear ice that advected into the Beaufort Sea has helped to stabilize ice loss in that region, multiyear ice for 2021 in the Arctic as a whole is at a record low. Based on ice age classification, the proportion of multiyear ice in the Arctic during the first week of August is at 1.6 million square kilometers (618,000 million square miles). The loss of the multiyear ice since the early 1980s started in earnest after the 2007 record low minimum sea ice cover that summer, and while there have been slight recoveries since then, it has not recovered to values seen in the 1980s, 1990s, or early 2000s. This loss of the oldest and thickest ice in the Arctic Ocean is one of the reasons why the summer sea ice extent has not recovered, even when weather conditions are favorable for ice retention.

Several variables for the models to decipher. How strong will Henri get? 12z Euro looks too weak again with forecast while the UKMET is too strong. All models handle the upper low over the Delmarva differently. Some are closed and others more open. The CMC almost looks like a middle ground between the various guidance today. We may not know an exact track until we see how much deepening occurs east of the Carolinas and where the upper low ends up.

It does look like the UKMET pressures are too low. But the NAM with higher pressures was west also. The GFS has been very volatile from run to run. The 0z Euro was more west than 12z but the pressures were too high. The stronger EPS members were further west than the OP. So we’ll see what the 12z Euro and EPS comes up with. But this forecast may come down to the wire since these upper low capture scenarios are really complex.

South America is the latest region to experience these big weather swings.

The 75° dew point up at White Plains ties the August monthly record high for 6 am. White Plains LGT RAIN 76 75

While we got the high humidity today, the most impressive heat went to our north.

75° dew point at JFK. This is the first 6 year stretch with 10 or more days reaching the 75° dew point mark. Just another part of our more subtropical climate. Kennedy Intl CLOUDY 81 75