bluewave

I know that the obvious focus of this extreme event was the all-time nature of the heat for any month by such a wide margin. But the other story is how many stations across the country set or tied their June monthly high temperature from the Pacific NW across to New England. It’s very unusual to set or tie all-time record highs for a month from the NW to the NE in the same month. This may have been the first time that Portland Maine and Portland Oregon had a warmest month at the same time. Time Series Summary for Portland Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 68.9 0 2 2001 67.1 0 3 1884 67.0 0 Time Series Summary for Portland Area, OR (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 70.7 0 2 2015 70.3 0 3 1992 67.4 0 New June maximum temperature records Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count - - - Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 100 0 - 1952 100 0 - 1925 100 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 103 0 2 2011 102 0 - 1994 102 0 - 1993 102 0 - 1952 102 0 - 1943 102 0 Time Series Summary for Missoula Area, MT (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 102 0 - 2015 102 0 3 1937 100 0 Time Series Summary for Salt Lake City Area, UT (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 107 0 2 2013 105 0 3 2015 104 0 - 1979 104 0 - 1961 104 0 Time Series Summary for Grand Junction Area, CO (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 105 0 - 1990 105 0 2 2016 104 0 - 1994 104 0 - 1900 104 0 All-time June monthly warmest minimum temperatures Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 69 0 - 2017 69 0 - 1949 69 0 - 1942 69 0 Time Series Summary for Portland Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 75 0 2 1931 74 0 - 1923 74 0 - 1901 74 0 Time Series Summary for Syracuse Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 78 0 2 1999 77 0 3 1925 76 0 Time Series Summary for Concord Area, NH (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 74 0 - 1875 74 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 77 0 - 1991 77 2

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/07/western-canada-burns-and-deaths-mount-after-worlds-most-extreme-heat-wave-in-modern-history/ This is the most anomalous regional extreme heat event to occur anywhere on Earth since temperature records began. Nothing can compare,” said weather historian Christopher Burt, author of the book “Extreme Weather.” Pointing to Lytton, Canada, he added, “There has never been a national heat record in a country with an extensive period of record and a multitude of observation sites that was beaten by 7°F to 8°F.” International weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera (@extremetemps) agrees. “What we are seeing now is totally unprecedented worldwide,” said Herrera, who tweeted on June 30, “It’s an endless waterfall of records being smashed.” Some examples of the extremity of this event, based on preliminary data: • Portland, Oregon, broke its longstanding all-time record high (107°F from 1965 and 1981) on three days in a row – a stunning feat for any all-time record – with highs of 108°F on Saturday, June 26; 112°F on Sunday; and 116°F on Monday. That 116°F is one degree higher than the average daily high on June 28 at Death Valley, California. • Quillayute, Washington, broke its official all-time high by a truly astonishing 11°F, after hitting 110°F on Monday (old record: 99°F on August 9, 1981). Quillayute is located near the lush Hoh Rain Forest on the Olympic Peninsula, just three miles from the Pacific Ocean, and receives an average of 100 inches of precipitation per year. • Jasper, Alberta, broke its all-time high of 36.7°C (98.1°F) on four days in a row, June 27-30, with highs of 37.3°C, 39.0°C, 40.3°C, and 41.1°C (99.1°F, 102.2°F, 104.5°F, and 106°F). • All-time state highs were tied in Washington (118°F at Dallesport) and set in Oregon (118°F at Hermiston, beating the reliable record of 117°F), and provincial highs were smashed in British Columbia (49.6°C at Lytton, beating 39.1°C) and Northwest Territories (39.9°C at Fort Smith, beating 31.7°C). According to Herrera, more all-time heat records have been broken by at least 5°C (9°F) in the past week’s heat wave than in the previous 84-plus years of world weather recordkeeping, going back to July 1936. It’s worth noting that the record North American heat of the 1930s, including 1936, was largely connected to the Dust Bowl, in which the effects of a multiyear drought were amplified by over-plowed, denuded soil across the Great Plains – an example of human-induced climate change itself, albeit temporary. Preliminary data from NOAA’s U.S. Records website shows that 55 U.S. stations had the highest temperatures in their history in the week ending June 28. More than 400 daily record highs were set. Over the past year, the nation has experienced about 38,000 daily record highs versus about 18,500 record lows, consistent with the 2:1 ratio of hot to cold records set in recent years.

https://theconversation.com/why-arctic-melting-will-be-erratic-in-the-short-term-35969 Why Arctic melting will be erratic in the short term Arctic sea ice melts each summer, reaching its minimum extent sometime in September, before refreezing through the winter. Over the past 35 years, the September sea ice extent has reduced by about 35% overall and this decline is projected to continue as global temperatures increase. In 2007 and 2012 the summer ice extent was dramatically lower, causing some some media speculation that we would soon see a summer which was “ice-free” (meaning a year with less than 1 million km2 of sea-ice). Most climate scientists were more cautious. The weather in 2007 and 2012 was warmer than usual and the winds were particularly favourable for melting sea ice. Although human influence on Arctic sea ice has been detected, there was no evidence that these weather patterns would continue each year. In contrast, 2013 and 2014 had more sea ice than 2012, causing other speculation that a recovery was underway. Is this claim warranted? The figure below shows Arctic sea ice extent (the black line) has undergone a long-term decrease, with the dashed line representing a linear trend. But there have also been shorter periods of rapid melt, no change, and apparent increases in extent during this decline – represented below by coloured trend lines for some deliberately chosen eight year periods. Satellite observations of September Arctic sea ice extent. Ed Hawkins/University of Reading The most recent eight-year period, starting from the extreme low of 2007, shows an upward trend. This does not mean that the Arctic sea ice is recovering. As with global temperature, these erratic changes are what we expect to see. Bouncing towards an ice-free summer Imagine a ball bouncing down a bumpy hill. Gravity will ensure that the ball will move downwards. But if the ball hits a bump at a certain angle it might move horizontally or even upwards for a time, before resuming its inevitable downward trajectory. This bouncing ball is an analogy for the changing Arctic sea ice. The hill represents the long-term downward trend in Arctic sea ice due to increasing global temperatures and the bumps introduce changes from this smooth trajectory. These erratic bounces could be in either direction, causing an apparent acceleration or temporary reduction in melt rate. By only examining a small part of the trajectory you might conclude that the ball was moving against gravity. A longer term view would see it as a bounce. There is no expectation that sea ice, or any other aspect of the climate, will change smoothly over time. The climate system simply does not work that way. Previous studies have suggestedthat natural climate variations (or “bounces”) play a key role in how sea ice evolves, and suggested that some of the rapid melt in the early 2000s was a temporary acceleration. A new study I co-authored with a team of Canadian and American scientists, published in Nature Climate Change, highlights that the recent slower melt is a temporary, but not unexpected, deceleration. The complex climate models used to make projections of future climate also exhibit similar periods of little change and more rapid change in Arctic sea ice. The recent trends are well within the range of these expectations. We might even see a decade or more with little apparent change in sea ice. The causes of these fluctuations in melt rate are still being explored. One suggestion is that slow variations in Atlantic sea surface temperatures are involved. More observations of the Arctic ocean, atmosphere and sea ice would help answer this question. An ice-free future? When will the Arctic be ice-free – or equivalently, when will the ball reach the bottom of the hill? The IPCC concluded it was likely that the Arctic would be reliably ice-free in September by 2050, assuming high future greenhouse gas emissions (where “reliably ice-free” means five consecutive years with less than 1 million km2 of sea ice). We expect the long-term decline in Arctic sea ice to continue as global temperatures rise. There will also be further bounces, both up and down. Individual years will be ice-free sometime in the 2020s, 2030s or 2040s, depending on both future greenhouse gas emissions and these natural fluctuations. Even when it reaches the bottom of the hill the ball will continue to bounce. Similarly, not every future year will be ice-free in summer. But if global temperatures continue to increase the bounces will become smaller and the ice-free periods will spread from late summer into autumn and early summer. Commercial Arctic shipping is already increasing to exploit shorter journey times from Europe to Asia, while oil, gas & mineral extraction possibilities are being explored and Arctic tourism is growing. Decisions about such activities need to assess both the risks and opportunities. The important role of natural sea ice fluctuations needs to be considered in such assessments.

Picked up a quick 0.75 with a few CG strikes here in SW Suffolk.

Shorties that remain OTS aren’t what hurricane seasons are remembered for. The relevant metrics are landfall, intensity, rainfall, and seasonal ACE. But the higher number of named storm years usually feature a significant amount of major hurricanes.

Human history is all about developing technology to adapt to our surroundings and then migrating when the technology can’t keep up anymore.

Seems like many of us on these boards are in the minority as to which type of weather we like the best. I know forums like this one originally started out as winter weather lover gathering spots. That’s why there has been so much resistance to the concept of climate change throughout the years. But even that has been shifting recently as the warming has become so obvious. The biggest population increases in this country have been in places that are subject to extreme heat, droughts, hurricanes, flooding, etc. So I am not sure if the migration patterns within this country will be sustainable over the long term with increasing extreme weather. People that I talk to can’t wait to move to places that don’t get any snow or cold and where they can wear their shorts all year. But I don’t think that they are taking into account how the extremes in those locations may make those areas harder to adapt to. I guess we’ll see if the future has people shifting back to cooler locations.

The comparison over the satellite era has been pretty consistent. Since we aren’t missing storms now that may have been missed before satellites. Those were called shorties that dissipated before they were detected. But there have been reanalysis papers done that figures out how many short lived storms out at sea may have been missed by shipping.

One station is often up a bit more than the others in our area. It really comes down to the prevailing winds. Essex county, NJ and Queens, NY seem to take turns being the warmest. Having our airports close to the water often leads to localalized warm spots since wind direction is so important. Last summer it was the bay breeze keeping Newark cooler. This year the flow pattern has kept LGA cooler. Jun 21….EWR….+3.5…..LGA…+2.2 Aug 20…EWR….+1.3…..LGA….+2.0 Jul 20….EWR….+2.6……LGA…..+3.7 Jun 20…EWR….+1.7……LGA….+2.5

Looks like a brief weekend cool down before our next surge of +20C 850 mb temps on Tuesday.

Newark made it to 103°yesterday for a new all-time June monthly maximum temperature. This was matched by the new Corona, Queens micronet station. Several other stations reached 100° also. So Essex and Queens counties were the warmest around the area in June. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 103 0 2 2011 102 0 - 1994 102 0 - 1993 102 0 - 1952 102 0 - 1943 102 0 3 1988 101 0 - 1966 101 0 4 1959 100 0 - 1953 100 0 - 1934 100 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2017 101 0 - 1952 101 0 2 2021 100 0 - 2008 100 0 https://www2.nysmesonet.org/networks/nyc Corona 103 Astoria 100 Queensbridge / Dutch Kills 100

The whole area had a top 6 warmest June. The one exception was JFK with strong sea breezes with the ocean still cooler. Parts of New England like Boston and Portland had their warmest June. Since the 30 year climate normals were updated to incorporate the record warmth of the last 10 years, departures won’t be as relevant a metric. That’s why we need to incorporate the actual temperatures and rankings to get a full picture of the warmth. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1994 77.8 0 2 2021 76.2 0 - 2010 76.2 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1943 76.2 0 2 1966 75.4 0 3 1994 75.2 0 4 2010 74.7 0 - 1899 74.7 0 5 1984 74.5 0 6 2021 74.3 0 - 1957 74.3 0 - 1925 74.3 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1943 76.4 0 2 2010 76.0 0 3 2020 75.9 0 4 2008 75.7 0 5 2021 75.6 0 - 1994 75.6 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 71.9 0 - 1999 71.9 0 2 2008 71.6 0 3 1994 71.3 0 4 2001 70.9 0 5 2020 70.7 0 6 2021 70.6 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2008 72.2 0 2 2010 71.8 0 3 1994 71.7 0 4 1957 71.6 0 5 2021 71.5 0

Updated for June 2021. 6….2021….EWR…..2…..NYC….6……LGA……5…..BDR….5…..ISP…..6

Newark had their second warmest June on record. Tied for the highest number of 100° days. New record for the most 95° days. Second place for June 90° days. Boston and Portland, Maine set the new record for warmest June. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1994 77.8 0 2 2021 76.2 0 - 2010 76.2 0 3 1993 75.8 0 4 1943 75.4 0 5 2008 75.3 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 Missing Count 1 2021 2 0 - 1994 2 0 - 1943 2 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Missing Count 1 2021 8 0 2 1943 7 0 3 1988 6 0 - 1984 6 0 - 1945 6 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 13 0 2 2021 12 0 3 1987 11 0 - 1943 11 0 4 2005 10 0 - 1994 10 0 - 1991 10 0 - 1988 10 0 - 1966 10 0 Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 74.4 0 2 1976 73.4 0 3 1930 72.4 0 4 1994 71.9 0 5 1949 71.6 0 Time Series Summary for Portland Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 68.9 0 2 2001 67.1 0 3 1884 67.0 0 4 1883 66.8 0 5 1930 66.5 0

The Dust Bowl was an early example of humans altering the Great Plains climate through land degradation. We had a big hand in the magnitude of the record heat. Now we are cooling the region through our farming practices. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16676-w The severe drought of the 1930s Dust Bowl decade coincided with record-breaking summer heatwaves that contributed to the socio-economic and ecological disaster over North America’s Great Plains. It remains unresolved to what extent these exceptional heatwaves, hotter than in historically forced coupled climate model simulations, were forced by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and exacerbated through human-induced deterioration of land cover. Here we show, using an atmospheric-only model, that anomalously warm North Atlantic SSTs enhance heatwave activity through an association with drier spring conditions resulting from weaker moisture transport. Model devegetation simulations, that represent the wide-spread exposure of bare soil in the 1930s, suggest human activity fueled stronger and more frequent heatwaves through greater evaporative drying in the warmer months. This study highlights the potential for the amplification of naturally occurring extreme events like droughts by vegetation feedbacks to create more extreme heatwaves in a warmer world. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/america-s-corn-belt-making-its-own-weather The Great Plains of the central United States—the Corn Belt—is one of the most fertile regions on Earth, producing more than 10 billion bushels of corn each year. It’s also home to some mysterious weather: Whereas the rest of the world has warmed, the region’s summer temperatures have dropped as much as a full degree Celsius, and rainfall has increased up to 35%, the largest spike anywhere in the world. The culprit, according to a new study, isn’t greenhouse gas emissions or sea surface temperature—it’s the corn itself. This is the first time anyone has examined regional climate change in the central United States by directly comparing the influence of greenhouse gas emissions to agriculture, says Nathan Mueller, an earth systems scientist at the University of California (UC), Irvine, who was not involved with this study. It’s important to understand how agricultural activity can have “surprisingly strong” impacts on climate change, he says.

Boston tied their all -time June maximum temperature. Newark tied for the second day in a row. LGA missed by 1°. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA 0320 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2021 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT BOSTON MA... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 100 FOR BOSTON MA TODAY JUN 30TH. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 95 SET IN 1945. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 0444 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2021 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT NEWARK NJ... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 102 WAS SET AT NEWARK NJ TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 99 SET IN 1964. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 0440 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2021 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT LAGUARDIA NY... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 100 WAS SET AT LAGUARDIA NY TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 97 SET IN 1964.

100° now at LGA with the more SW flow. 30 Jun 3:51 pm 100 65 32 SW

Those ground level stations are located in the local neighborhoods. The Corona Queens station has a high today so far of 101°. It’s avoiding the breeze of the water that is currently keeping LGA cooler.

We came close to the June all-time warmest 850 mb temperature on a 12z sounding today.

At least the day 15 EPS had the general theme of a ridge near the NW and NE correct. But we have seen how the magnitude of these ridges have been beating expectations. The models usually need to get to under 168 hrs to have a clue of how amplified the ridges will be. So the record breaking nature of this event really snuck up on the models in their better range.

The new NYC micronet is proving to be a valuable resource. We continue to see other stations in Queens with warmer high temperatures than LGA. The lows all stayed at 80° or above. LGA…………….…….98…81 Astoria………….….99…81 Corona……………..100..80 Queensbridge…..99…80

We tied two June monthly all-time heat records yesterday. The 102° at Newark was the June record high temperature. The 77° low at White Plains was the warmest low for June. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 102 1 - 2011 102 0 - 1994 102 0 - 1993 102 0 - 1952 102 0 - 1943 102 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 77 1 - 1991 77 2 3 1984 75 0 - 1975 75 0 - 1952 75 0