bluewave

Maybe a summer preview for the East. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 0730 AM EST SAT FEB 19 2022 ...ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH DEW POINT TEMPERATURE OF 72 DEGREES SET FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY AT JACKSONVILLE FL YESTERDAY... THE DEW POINT TEMPERATURE REACHED 72 DEGREES AT JACKSONVILLE ON FRIDAY FEBRUARY 18TH. THIS BREAKS THE ALL-TIME HIGHEST FEBRUARY DEW POINT TEMPERATURE RECORD OF 71 DEGREES SET ON 02-24-2019. DEW POINT TEMPERATURE RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1948 AT JACKSONVILLE.

It’s pretty cool to see the HRRR generate some SBCAPE as the squall comes through this afternoon.

Yeah, it’s the 2nd squall behind that one producing the brief blizzard conditions.

Yeah, this wave break is leading to the -EPO +PNA block that the models are advertising. We saw something similar in early December with record WPAC low and typhoon a few days later. That locked in the record Aleutian Ridge -PNA pattern for all of December. So these wave breaks are key players in our weather patterns. It would be great if we had an artificial intelligence weather model which could identify these wave breaks months in advance.

There are a few different schools of thought on that. One is that the Euro RMM index is weaker than the GFS. But the VP anomalies for both models are identical. So I am not so sure this is a MJO difference. The MJO has been stuck in phase 3 all month. But the La Niña MJO composite shows a much different pattern than we have been getting. This leads me to believe that the MJO is not currently having much influence on the pattern. Remember, the MJO is only one part of the climate system. Sometimes it’s the dominant player and other times it isn’t. Actual pattern much different than MJO would suggest

The EPS has really been leading the way this winter on these big North Pacific blocking intervals. It spotted the late December shift going into January and then the GEFS eventually caught on . The GEFS is correcting toward the stronger EPS idea in recent runs. EPS GEFS has been struggling New run more like the Euro Older run too weak

NYC is +2.7 so far for February. Each cool down is followed by a more impressive warm up. So the coming week will be a continuation following the cool down this weekend. Looks like the month will end on a cold note as a major -EPO +PNA block sets up. Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Avg Temperature Departure 2022-02-01 -4.2 2022-02-02 5.7 2022-02-03 13.1 2022-02-04 7.5 2022-02-05 -11.2 2022-02-06 -10.8 2022-02-07 -0.9 2022-02-08 3.9 2022-02-09 2.7 2022-02-10 10.6 2022-02-11 12.4 2022-02-12 15.2 2022-02-13 -1.9 2022-02-14 -15.1 2022-02-15 -12.8 2022-02-16 2.5 2022-02-17 22.3 2022-02-18 8.6

Another big temperature swing coming up. Colder weekend before more 60°+ potential next week. February battle between the +PNA and WAR. +PNA WAR pattern

The mixing height is about as high as we ever see it around here when the squall comes through on the HRRR tomorrow.

We have had the tree removal crews here numerous times in recent years. Isaias was the recent worst for tree damage. The first big event in 2010 was the March windstorm. This was followed up by the NYC macroburst and tornado in September 2010. Then it was Irene in August 2011 followed by the record October heavy wet snowstorm that damaged so many trees around the region. Quickly followed by Sandy in 2012 with both wind and saltwater damage to trees. Several events after this as we have lost track of all these high wind warning and severe thunderstorm events. There was also a notable severe thunderstorm complex with 80+ winds in June a few summers ago that really clobbered the North Shore. Then we had the recent out of season tornadoes and severe in the fall. So many homeowners are going to small ornamental varieties of trees that won’t do damage to their house or no trees at all.

Trees have really taken a beating since 2010. Probably the worst tree damage for our area over a 10-12 year period. So many weakened trees have already fallen. Plus many homeowners have done removals of trees that were to close to their house. The professional tree cutting business has been booming.

It really comes down to whether the trees are fully leafed out or not. Isaias was the last major power outage here with 75-80 mph gusts with fully leafed out trees. Many fewer outages with this event with gusts in the 60s and bare trees. I believe the last cold season event with more widespread outages was March 2010 with the gusts over 75 mph. But those were fewer than Isaias with the trees still bare in March.

Several models did an excellent job like the SPC HREF. Peak gusts were in the 60-70 mph range here on Long Island. So this one was very well advertised.

The extreme swings in temperature continue to be the big story this month. The 17° hourly record temperature drop EWR earlier the month set a new record for February. This was followed up by a top 10 two day temperature rise of 52° this week to record highs. The record high of 69° was the 7th highest monthly max. Numerous warmest readings were recorded since 2010 with the historic 80° in 2018. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&hours=55&month=feb&dir=warm&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2018 80 0 2 1949 76 0 3 2017 74 0 - 1997 74 0 - 1954 74 0 4 1985 73 0 5 2011 71 0 6 1999 70 0 - 1939 70 0 7 2022 69 11 - 2008 69 0 - 1991 69 0 - 1981 69 0 - 1953 69 0 8 2019 68 0 - 2002 68 0 - 1989 68 0 - 1976 68 0

Gust to 65 mph at Newark with the severe squall line.

The EPS really goes wild with the -EPO +PNA from late February into early March. Feb 28- Mar 7 Mar 7-14

New record highs of 68°at NYC and EWR. 200 PM EST THU FEB 17 2022 CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS Central Park MOSUNNY 68 45 43 MISG 30.07F LaGuardia Arpt PTSUNNY 60 42 51 S17 30.06F Kennedy Intl PTSUNNY 51 44 77 S23G30 30.09F Newark Liberty PTSUNNY 68 47 46 SW17G32 30.04F

Thanks for the compliments. I enjoy your posts also. The Xmacis2 site allows for us to put everything in context. The volatility in these patterns certainly introduces challenges for long range forecasting.

As we continue to warm, it’s easier for the warmth to beat model guidance. We started out with one of the warmest Decembers on record. While January was our coldest in years, the cold wasn’t anywhere close to the magnitude of the warmth in December. The average around 30° was well outside top 10 coldest range that we have experienced in the past. The back and forth February makes the cold days seem colder. But the warm days have been setting records. So the record warmth will result in a warmer than average February and winter as a whole. This will be our 7th warmer than average winter in a row. 3rd warmest December in NYC against 55th coldest January. 2004 was the last time that January almost made it to top 10 coldest. Warmest Decembers Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015 50.8 0 2 2001 44.1 0 3 2021 43.8 0 4 1984 43.7 0 5 2006 43.6 0 6 2011 43.3 0 7 1998 43.1 0 8 1982 42.7 0 9 1990 42.6 0 10 1891 42.5 0 11 1994 42.2 0 12 1923 42.0 0 13 2012 41.5 0 14 1996 41.3 0 - 1953 41.3 0 16 1979 41.1 0 17 1956 40.9 0 - 1931 40.9 0 19 1971 40.8 0 20 2014 40.5 0 - 1965 40.5 0 22 1957 40.2 0 23 2018 40.1 0 Coldest Januaries Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1918 21.7 0 2 1977 22.0 0 3 1888 23.2 0 4 1920 23.4 0 5 1875 23.6 1 6 1912 23.7 0 7 1893 23.8 0 8 1883 24.4 0 9 1884 24.5 0 10 1881 24.6 0 11 2004 24.7 0 12 1940 25.0 0 13 1970 25.1 0 14 1945 25.2 0 15 1904 25.3 0 16 1948 25.4 0 17 1994 25.5 0 18 1879 25.9 2 19 1886 26.0 0 20 1982 26.1 0 21 1981 26.2 0 22 1968 26.7 0 23 1971 26.9 0 24 1976 27.3 0 25 1873 27.4 0 26 2003 27.5 0 27 1961 27.7 0 - 1877 27.7 0 29 2009 27.9 0 30 1978 28.0 0 31 1871 28.1 2 32 1922 28.2 0 33 1887 28.3 0 - 1882 28.3 0 35 1925 28.4 0 36 1957 28.5 0 37 2014 28.6 0 38 1985 28.8 0 - 1935 28.8 0 40 1885 29.1 0 - 1872 29.1 0 42 1936 29.3 0 - 1905 29.3 0 44 1941 29.4 0 45 1988 29.5 0 46 1965 29.6 0 - 1895 29.6 0 48 2011 29.7 0 49 2015 29.9 0 - 1984 29.9 0 - 1923 29.9 0 - 1878 29.9 0 53 1896 30.0 0 54 1963 30.1 0 55 2022 30.3 0

Yeah, getting closer to the record of 66°. 2/17 66 in 2011 66 in 1976 61 in 1981

The SPC HREF has wind gust potential over 60 mph on Long Island.

That’s because you posted the 300mb winds up in the jet stream.

Euro has 60 mph winds down to 300 ft on Fire Island which is one of the windier spots in these events.

It’s interesting that March 1-15th has been better for 12”+ snowfall maxes in the OKX zones than the 2nd half of February since 2010. It has also been much better than all the 2 week periods before January 15th. So a snowfall max from mid-January to mid-February and a 2nd peak in early March. Roughly 2 week snowfall periods since 2010 and number of 12"+ snowstorms in OKX zones Oct 29-Nov 15.....3 Nov 16-Nov 30....0 Dec 1- Dec 15.....0 Dec 16-Dec 31....3 Jan1-Jan 15.......4 Jan16-Jan 31.....6 Feb 1-Feb 15.....7 Feb 16-Feb 28...1 Mar 1- Mar 15....6 Mar 16-Mar 31...1 Apr 1-Apr 16.....0