bluewave

Yeah, looks like this will be the 6th month since 2010 that at least one of our major stations goes 10.00”+. August 2011 was the last time all our stations went 10.00” in the same month. It will be interesting to see if we can eventually get a 10.00” winter month in the coming years. The only one in NYC history was Jan 1979. But out of 10.59, only 6.6 fell as snow. I wonder what the highest precipitation total winter month we can get and still have most of it fall as snow? Philly picked up 5.75 in Feb 2010 and 51.5 of that was snow. NYC got 6.69 in Feb 2010 and 36.9 was snow. Be interesting to see the maximum snowfall we can get from a 10.00 winter month. Jul….2020….EWR…11.20 Aug..2014…..ISP……14.07 Jun..2013……NYC….10.10 Aug..2011……EWR….18.79…..other stations in same range Mar…2010…..NYC…..10.69

Flash flooding today in London.

Albany was a cool oasis in a sea of warm back in June. ALB….-0.2 POU…+2.8 BTV….+4.3 BGM..+3.4 SYR…+5.5

June was a top 1-5 warmest for the Northeast. But July only ranks In the top 20s for many spots. This is one of the biggest temperature ranking declines from June to July that we have ever seen.

This is one of the more impressive temperature gradients that we have seen this time of year. So an up and down temperature pattern. With all the quick changes, there will be something for everyone.

This is the first time in the post 2010 era that Newark experienced such a big monthly maximum temperature drop from June to July. Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jun Jul Season Mean 96 100 +4 2021 103 97 -6 2020 93 96 +3 2019 93 99 +6 2018 96 98 +2 2017 99 98 -1 2016 91 99 +8 2015 93 98 +5 2014 92 96 +4 2013 96 101 +5 2012 99 104 +5 2011 102 108 +6 2010 98 103 +5

With all the blocking, areas just N and W of NYC could see 50s next weekend.

This is the 15th day in July so far with rain in NYC. It’s the most since 1996. So NYC is getting closer to only the 3rd 10.00” July. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Precipitation >= .01 Missing Count 1 1871 20 0 2 1992 16 0 - 1988 16 0 - 1969 16 0 - 1958 16 0 - 1945 16 0 - 1919 16 0 - 1915 16 0 - 1901 16 0 - 1887 16 0 3 1996 15 0 - 1938 15 0 - 1897 15 0 - 1889 15 0 2021 15 6 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 1889 11.89 0 2 1975 11.77 0 3 1897 9.56 0 4 2021 9.21 7 5 1928 8.89 0

Hard to keep track of all the record flash flooding around the world. Luckily, the driver survived.

This would be a great winter pattern.

That chart above is using the flawed UAH from before it was corrected.

I have never heard of an ASOS system being moved after it was built. The best time to have done that was before they installed it back in 1995. I don’t think there is a budget for moving weather stations.

Yeah, that’s why NYC was often the warmest spot in the 60s and 70s with no trees covering the equipment. Can you imagine how many high temperature records would have been broken since 1990 if the site was properly maintained? Sometimes you have to laugh when tuning into the local NYC TV and radio weather reports. The usual story is how NYC just missed a heatwave with a high of only 88° or 89° degrees. Then report ends with but they got the heatwave at EWR or LGA. So it gives the impression that Manhattan is a great spot beat the summer heat.

You could probably do a a documentary on all the problems that the Central Park station has had over the years. https://www.nytimes.com/1977/07/22/archives/vandals-in-central-park-forcing-weather-service-to-seek-new-site.html Besides taking New York City's temperature and trying to predict when it will go up or down. National Weather Service forecasters are searching for a new place in Central Park to keep the sensitive instruments they use to prepare their hourly reports. “It's really a sh‐me, but we have to move,” said Harold Gibson, the meteorologist in charge of the New York bureau, as he stepped carefully through the debris at the crumbling Belvedere Castle, where weather data is collected and transmitted electronically to Weather Service headquarters in Rockefeller Center. Mr. Gibson said he decided to leave the hilltop castle, which is the highest point in the park, because he cannot predict the frequency of break‐ins that interrupt the monitoring of temperature, humidity, sunlight and wind at the unmanned station in the unguarded, city‐owned castle, which is south of the Delacorte Theater at 79th Street on the west side of the park. Vandalism Disrupts Work “Mostly we suffer from malicious destruction,” Mr. Gibson said. “The problem up here can be as little as somebody pulling a circuit‐breaker switch that stops the current and halts the measurements. But from our standpoint, that's almost as bad as stealing all the equipment—it disrupts our work.” The last break‐in occurred two weeks ago. The thermometer was not damaged, but the anemometer, which meastures wind speeds, was stolen, and other equipment has not functioned properly since. Some of the forecasters work in windowless rooms and cannot tell whether the sun is shining without the Central Park equipment. As a result, visitors to the Weather Service office at Rockefeller Center are sometimes asked what the weather outside is like. When the devices at the castle are not functioning, the Weather Service substitutes readings from La Guardia Airport. But Mr. Gibson said those readings do not really reflect conditions in the city, because they may be several degrees cooler in summer or warmer in winter than those in Central Park. During the current hot spell, the Weather Service has used wind and humidity readings from La Guardia in its forecasts. Replacing the Central Park equipment is fairly expensive—an anemometer costs about $2.500, Mr. Gibson said—but the forecasers arc reluctant to install replacements because they fear another break‐in. “Whoever does this to us is speedy,” Mr. Gibson said, recalling_ one break‐in that had occurred in the morning. By 2:30 P.M. the repairs were completed. No sooner was the 4 P.M. forecast released than the new equipment was stolen. The police have increased the number of patrols passing the castle, and that has deterred some vandals, Mr. Gibson said. And the Parks Department put steel gratings over the windows after vandals smashed through the concrete blocks that had been installed in place of the semicircular windows. “Clearly, that's not enough,” said Joseph P. Bresnan, director of historic parks, monuments and restoration. “That building should be used.” Meanwhile, the stonework at the castle, which was designed by Calvert Vaux, a collaborator wtih Frederick Law Olmsted on the design of Central Park, has been frescoed with graffiti. A $557,000 project to restore the castle, the top priority item in a 1973 study of Central Park, has been put off indefinitely because of the city's economic problems. One possible site for housing the sensitive instruments is the roof of the Central Park Precinct station house, which the police have offered. It is only a short distance from the castle, and meteorologists think the climate conditions there are almost identical to those at Belvedere, where weather data have been gathered for 109 years. “It would be almost criminal to destroy the century‐old data base we have accumulated here at Central Pork.” Mr. Gibson said. “It is one of the best in the United States, or, for that matter, in the world.”

JFK has seen a similar rise in JJA temperatures as the other stations. You can see the big giveaway that the NYC ASOS went from the sun to deep shade. Notice how the average minimum JJA temperature rose in line with the other stations since 1951-1980. But the average high from 1951-1980 to 2011-2020 is virtually unchanged. JJA 1950-1981 to 2011-2020 temperature change NYC max….83.0…83.2….+0.2 min…..66.0…68.2….+2.2 EWR max…83.4…85.3…..+1.9 min….65.8….67.8…..+2.0 LGA max…82.0….84.4…..+2.4 min….66.8….69.9…..+3.1 JFK max….80.5….82.5…..+2.0 min…..65.4….67.7……+2.3

As of 2003, the NWS seemed resigned to the issue. Central Park Weather: Vegetative Overgrowth Affecting Weather Readings - WABC-TV (New York-WABC, August 22, 2003) - Forecasting the weather is not easy. Government equipment can often be blamed for giving faulty weather information. As Bill Evans explains, a big culprit may be some of the equipment buried in Central Park. Rainfall, snowfall, and the temperature are all vital information recorded 24 hours a day at the weather station located in the heart of Central Park. But meteorologists like Michael Schlacter have serious concerns about the accuracy of the stations data. It sits amid overgrown vegetation and he says thats the problem. The leaves can trigger snow gauges and trees can warp rain and wind measurements. On this hot day, a temperature gauge is in the shade instead of direct sunlight. Michael Schlacter, Weather 2000: "Its kind of like driving a car without a speedometer, odometer, and gas gauge. You are running with false information." The weather instruments at Belvedere Castle have long adorned the top. There used to be a government meteorologist here in the city to keep an eye on them. But now the nearest meteorologist is 60 miles that way. But National Weather Service meteorologists say they knew the weather readings in the park would never be as keenly accurate as the ones at the airports where guidelines prevent foliage from being within 100 feet of the station. Schlacter: "We knew that at times we would have flaky readings, that leaves would fall in gauges, that we would have problems with visibility sensors." [NWS Meteorologist-in-Charge Michael] Wyllie says the weather station is there because it was historically significant to maintain its presence in the park. He says theres been a lot of growth because of the wet spring at so much in fact that temperatures have routinely been recorded lower in the park than at the airports. Wyllie: "We are actually having a micro climate system there because of the vegetation." Imperfect perhaps but nonetheless the system provides the official record of weather for the country's largest city. And Michael Schlacter says its a city that deserves better. Schlacter: "I think New Yorkers deserve a lot better, and I think they deserve the best weather station money can buy." Copyright 2003 ABC Inc., WABC-TV Inc.

Yeah, impressive gradient for late July.

The risk of crop failures would be too high. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/aug/08/reflecting-suns-rays-would-cause-crops-to-fail-scientists-warn Proposals to combat climate change by reflecting the sun’s rays back into space would cause widespread crop failure, cancelling out any benefits to farming from the reduction in warming, according to new research.

2011-2020 had the most 90° days. You can see how the tree growth over the equipment in Central Park has held the 90°days down relative to EWR and LGA. This was the first decade that any of our stations averaged 30° days reaching 90° a year. #90° days 1951-1960…..EWR…25….NYC…18….LGA….19 1961-1970…..EWR…22….NYC…20…LGA….14 1971-1980….EWR….21…..NYC…18….LGA….12 1981-1990….EWR…26…..NYC…18….LGA….15 1991-2000…EWR…28…..NYC….19….LGA….19 2001-2010…EWR…27……NYC….15….LGA….23 2011-2020….EWR…30…..NYC….18….LGA….24 1951-1980….EWR…23……NYC…18...LGA…15 2011-2020...EWR…30…….NYC…18…LGA…24 …………………EWR….+7…….NYC…0….LGA…+9

Everything has felt a bit early this year. We got the big snowstorm in February before the -5 AO drop instead of after. The AO reversal in February was faster than we typically see with such a strong -AO winter. June featured record heat which we typically experience in July. Then July had an early tropical storm with record monthly rainfall. In the past, the deluge or a tropical system after 100°heat happened much later.

The only relationship that I can see between those summers was the timing of the ENSO. The hottest of those Julys were La Niña. Either El Niño winter to La Niña summer or a continuation of La Niña. But the last several winters haven’t matched the expected patterns for the ENSO with coupling issues. It’s interesting that last July was the hottest on record at LGA and a top 10 warmest at Central Park. Also notice that the Julys since the 1990s would be warmer if it wasn’t for the canopy of trees cooling the sensor below. The summers that you highlighted bolded plus the hot 2020 July Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature ENSO 1 1999 81.4 La Niña to La Niña 2 2010 81.3 El Nino to La Nina 3 1955 80.8 La Niña to La Niña 4 1952 80.3 5 2011 80.2 6 1993 80.1 7 2020 80.0 - 1908 80.0 8 2013 79.8 9 1966 79.7 El Niño to La Niña 10 2019 79.6 - 1949 79.6 11 1983 79.5 12 1994 79.4 - 1944 79.4 13 1988 79.3 El Niño to La Niña - 1980 79.3 0 14 1876 79.2 0 15 1995 79.1 0 - 1887 79.1 0 16 1977 79.0 Weak El Niño

It will be interesting to see if we eventually get a ridge rebound in August. The latest EPS weeklies continue with the New England trough theme into early August. I don’t think that the New England crew was expecting this after the warmest June on record. Jul 26-Aug 2 Aug 2-Aug 9

Big 500 mb pattern change this July compared to 2018-2020.The record WAR, which dominated in recent years, was finally dwarfed by the ridge over Western North America. So the Northeast is experiencing a cooler July than the last three years.

Newark is on track for its first summer since 2010 with more 95° days in June than July. Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jun Jul Aug Mean 2 6 2 2021 8 3 M 2020 0 6 0 2019 0 5 0 2018 2 3 3 2017 2 2 0 2016 0 7 5 2015 0 3 2 2014 0 3 0 2013 1 8 0 2012 5 11 1 2011 3 13 1 2010 3 11 4