bluewave
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Newark moves into 5th place for the most November 70° days with a high of 73° today. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Missing Count 1 2020 7 0 - 1975 7 0 2 1994 6 0 - 1990 6 0 - 1953 6 0 - 1931 6 0 3 2015 5 0 - 2001 5 0 - 1982 5 0 - 1938 5 0 4 2005 4 0 - 1979 4 0 - 1973 4 0 5 2011 3 0 - 1974 3 0 - 1964 3 0 - 1956 3 0 - 1950 3 0 - 1949 3 0 - 1948 3 0 - 1945 3 0 - 1935 3 0 2022 3 27
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Record warmth possible by this weekend. The models have a record breaking 588 dm ridge building over the area. Guidance sometimes shows too much onshore flow for Newark. So if this is the case again, then Newark could approach the 77° and 80° record highs. This warmth may come close to early November 2020 records. 11/5 77 in 1959 76 in 1994. 75 in 1961+ 11/6 80 in 1948 77 in 1959 75 in 2015 11/7 78 in 1938 77 in 2020 71 in 2015+ 11/8 77 in 2020 76 in 1975 75 in 1945 11/9 77 in 2020 75 in 1975 74 in 2021 11/10 76 in 2020 73 in 1999 73 in 1985+ More SW flow than forecast could allow Newark to beat guidance.
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Warmer October in New England and cooler in the Mid-Atlantic. So the dividing line between warmer and cooler is right around NYC. Another big ridge over the record warm pool east of New England. This is the 2nd warmest October in Caribou, Maine so far. ISP….+0.7 FRG…+0.7 HPN….+0.3 JFK…..-0.2 NYC…..-1.3 LGA……-1.4 EWR…..-1.9 Time Series Summary for CARIBOU WFO, ME - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2017 51.4 0 2 2022 50.1 3 3 2021 49.9 0 4 1947 48.8 0 5 1968 48.4 0 6 1995 47.8 0 7 2007 47.6 0 8 1963 47.5 0 9 1970 47.4 0 10 2014 47.3 0
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Warmer October to the north and east of NYC and cooler south and west. Continuation of this theme for the rest of the month. Ridge set up again over the NW Atlantic record warm pool. This allowed for two record warm low minimums in a row at ISP. ISP….+0.5 FRG…+0.5 HPN….+0.2 JFK….-0.5 NYC….-1.4 LGA…..-1.5 EWR…..-2.1 Islip Area, NYPeriod of record: 1963-09-05 through 2022-10-26 Highest minimum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 10/25 65 in 2022 59 in 1975 59 in 1971 10/26 60 in 2022 60 in 2010 59 in 2003
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Yes. It brings Farmingdale to -0.1 for October. So much warmer conditions this month at the coast. A reversal from the summer when NJ had the warmer departures. Almanac for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY October 25, 2022 Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest Max Temperature 78 61 78 in 2022 51 in 2018 Min Temperature 64 45 64 in 2022 32 in 2003 Avg Temperature 71.0 52.8 71.0 in 2022 45.0 in 2018
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Just missed the record high at Islip at 75°. This late month warmth brings the departure up to 0.0. So the record SST warmth east of New England is keeping coastal sections warmer this month. 10/25 76 in 2001 76 in 1963 75 in 2022
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Warmer winters have become the norm since the super El Niño in 15-16. Overall La Niña background state with a strong WAR and SE ridge. Intervals of Atlantic and Pacific blocking were more dominant in the snowier seasons.
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The cooler October transitioning to a warmer November is more of a feature that we see with El Niños. So the record warmth in the North Pacific is creating more of an El Niño type influence. Probably another winter with competing influences rather than a strict ENSO interpretation.
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The warmest departures will go to our north this week and are set maintain the near record warmth up near Caribou, Maine. This was their 3rd warmest first 3 weeks of October for high temperatures. It’s really impressive since the average high there was only a little warmer than Newark. Goes to show how strong that record warm pool is east of New England. Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Max Temperature Oct 1 to Oct 23 Missing Count 1 1947-10-23 62.4 0 2 2017-10-23 62.2 0 3 2022-10-23 61.7 0 4 2021-10-23 61.2 0 5 2016-10-23 61.1 0
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More onshore flow when the record ridge axis extends east of New England like we are getting again this weekend.
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General warm up as the PNA becomes more negative going forward. Looks like the warm spots may sneak in a few 70° days. But the highest departures should miss to our north. So areas especially further west may be able to hold the cold departures for the month. EWR….-4.3 NYC…..-3.1 HPN……-1.3 JFK…….-2.1 LGA…..-3.0 ISP…….-1.0
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41° here in SW Suffolk with some frost only on the roofs.
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Heading into our next cool down behind the cold front. Back to the 30s tonight for the usual colder spots. Then we warm up near 70° for the warmer spots over the weekend into next week.
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The cold departures get much smaller east of the Hudson this month. NJ has had some of the coldest departures in the area. More cold this week centered west of NYC will enhance this pattern. Then models indicate a warm up later in the month. So we’ll see if the cold departures can hold especially east of NYC with the coming warm up. EWR….-4.6 TTN….-4.2 HPN….-1.0 LGA….-2.7 JFK….-2.1 ISP…..-0.6
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Big pattern change coming up to warmer after this week as the PNA reverses and we get back to more of a La Niña SE Ridge.
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This was the 9th coldest first 2 weeks of October at Newark with more cold to come this week. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Oct 1 to Oct 14 Missing Count 1 1935-10-14 52.4 0 2 1945-10-14 53.5 0 3 1987-10-14 53.7 0 4 1965-10-14 54.1 0 5 1988-10-14 54.4 0 - 1981-10-14 54.4 0 6 1996-10-14 54.6 0 7 1964-10-14 54.9 0 - 1934-10-14 54.9 0 8 1977-10-14 55.1 0 9 2022-10-14 55.2 0
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This was the 4th coldest October 1-11 at Newark on record at -7.1 and 54.2°. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Oct 1 to Oct 11 Missing Count 1 1935-10-11 51.5 0 2 1965-10-11 53.8 0 3 1938-10-11 54.0 0 4 2022-10-11 54.2 0 5 1996-10-11 54.3 0
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Yeah, record Southern Greenland blocking lead to the record heat and melt for September.
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It was a near record positive AO for October. But the wave break produced very strong blocking over the EPO and PNA regions. So we were much colder than usual for such a strong +AO pattern. That’s why our sensible weather is often driven by a combination of teleconnections rather than just one exclusively. The AO and NAO blocking will increase day 6-10 as another wave breaker storm cuts through the Great Lakes.
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It will be interesting to see if we can get our first cool October since 2009. Newark October temperature departures 2022…..-7.9….so far 2021…..+6.9 2020….+1.5 2019…..+3.8 2018…..+0.8 2017…..+7.2 2016…+2.3 2015….+0.6 2014….+2.7 2013….+3.0 2012…..+2.2 2011……+1.5 2010……+1.9 2009…..-0.8
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The blocking that produced the record low maxes this week was Pacific dominant. But the storm that cuts this week will cause a west based Atlantic block. So this more Nino-like October pattern continues as the North Pacific warm pool is overriding the La Niña signal. The La Niña SE Ridge /WAR has been the default pattern since the super El Niño. Cooler fall patterns have become non existent before November in recent years. November has been our only month with record cold for a while now. So this cooler October pattern would be our first since the Modoki El Niño in 2009 if it can hold.
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Unusually strong blocking like the models are forecasting following the wave breaker cutter this week.
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2018 was the earliest. First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference 2018 03-21 (2018) 8.2 11-15 (2018) 6.4 238 1911 - - 12-04 (1911) 7.0 - 1957 02-01 (1957) 6.3 12-04 (1957) 7.5 305 1926 02-10 (1926) 10.4 12-05 (1926) 7.9 297 2002 - - 12-05 (2002) 6.0 - 2003 02-17 (2003) 16.3 12-05 (2003) 8.0 290 1960 03-03 (1960) 12.5 12-12 (1960) 11.6 283 1902 03-05 (1902) 6.5 12-13 (1902) 6.0 282 1917 04-09 (1917) 6.4 12-13 (1917) 8.0 247 1916 03-06 (1916) 7.6 12-15 (1916) 12.7 283 2020 - - 12-16 (2020) 6.5 -
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Our most impressive fall cold temperature records in recent years were the 3rd and 4th earliest 25° readings in 2019 and 2017. Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 1879 04-05 (1879) 25 11-04 (1879) 25 212 1976 04-12 (1976) 25 11-09 (1976) 24 210 2017 03-23 (2017) 23 11-10 (2017) 25 231 2019 03-08 (2019) 24 11-12 (2019) 25 248 1920 03-15 (1920) 23 11-13 (1920) 25 242 1986 03-22 (1986) 24 11-13 (1986) 24 235
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The low of 37° at Newark is just 2° from the record low of 35°. Newark Area, NJPeriod of record: 1931-01-01 through 2022-10-08DateLowest minimum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 10/9 35 in 1988 36 in 2001 37 in 2022
