bluewave

The urbanization around LGA hasn’t changed since the 1980s. So any warming of the minimums since the 1980s is a result of the warming climate. POU and BDR have had more impressive minimum temperature rises during the summer than LGA. LGA max…..+2.3 min……+2.8 BDR max….+2.1 min…..+3.3 POU max…..+2.4 min…...+3.0

The ASOS in the 1990s replaced the previous automated systems of the 1970s and 1980s. So automation is nothing new . I found a fox weather story done back in January about the Central Park weather station at Belvedere Castle. You can see how the trees grew over the site in the 1990s. https://www.foxweather.com/watch/play-568120883000757 All the stations except Central Park are accurate since NYC is the only station with obstructions too close to the equipment. Some stations have had faster minimum rises like LGA, HPN, BDR, and POU. So those accurately reflect local changes. Warming is an uneven process with the minimums rising faster in some spots and others showing more maximum rises. This can also change from season to season.

Strongest -AO drop of the year so far coming up. The whole area would have had above normal snowfall if this block occurred from February into March.

This may be among the most variable spring temperature patterns that we have seen since March 1st. The SE Ridge has been dueling with the -AO block. So our next cool down is on track for Monday morning with a late season freeze for the usually colder spots. Then we warm up again back to the 70s by later next week. This is followed by another backdoor cool down. Then we may get another chance for 80s around day 8-10 as the SE Ridge flexes. Then more blocking near the end of April with another step down in temperatures. Big temperature swings for the rest of the month

This continuing La Niña background state is on steroids. So it favors another very active hurricane season. Then maybe a rare 3rd year La Niña for next winter. Enough preamble—what’s the Walker circulation doing right now? I thought you’d never ask. It’s really feeling its oats these days, as several different atmospheric measurements tell us. First, let’s talk Equatorial Southern Oscillation, an index that measures the relative sea level pressure in the far western Pacific vs. that in the eastern Pacific. When the EQSOI is positive, it indicates lower-than-average pressure over the west (more rain and clouds) and higher-than-average pressure over the east (less rain and clouds), i.e., evidence of a stronger Walker circulation. In March, the EQSOI measured 1.4, the 6th strongest since 1950. As I mentioned above, stronger trade winds are key to the La Niña feedback between the ocean and atmosphere. The trade winds were enhanced through March, and remain stronger than average into mid-April. You want a number, you say? Okay! There’s an index that measures the near-surface winds in the central Pacific region of 5°N–5°S, 175°W–140°W; it was 4.3 meters per second (9.6 miles per hour) faster than average in March. This is the strongest March value on record, but there’s a catch—this record only goes back to 1979. One more index! The central Pacific was much less cloudy and rainy than average in March. We monitor cloudiness via satellite, by looking at how much radiation is leaving the Earth’s surface and reaching the satellites. Less radiation making it to the satellite means more clouds are blocking the path. The index that measures outgoing radiation (and therefore cloudiness), the CPOLR, tells us that this March featured the least amount of clouds for any March on record over the central Pacific. We’re number 1! Again, though, like the winds, this record only goes back to 1979, when the satellite measurement era began. So, a grain of salt with your records. One last measurement today—let’s look under the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean. The amount of cooler-than-average water under the surface increased in March. This cooler subsurface water provides a supply of cooler water to the surface, contributing to ENSO forecasters’ prediction that La Niña will remain into the summer. Index-wise, last month the water under the surface was the 9th coolest March since 1979.

Worcester only needs 0.5 of snow to avoid a rare defeat by Boston. Time Series Summary for Worcester Area, MA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to May 31 Boston 2022-05-31 53.6 54.0 2021-05-31 76.8 38.6 2020-05-31 44.9 15.8 2019-05-31 51.4 27.4 2018-05-31 96.1 59.9 2017-05-31 78.3 47.6 2016-05-31 47.2 36.1 2015-05-31 119.7 110.6 2014-05-31 85.2 58.9 2013-05-31 108.9 63.4 2012-05-31 39.7 9.3 2011-05-31 92.6 81.0 2010-05-31 64.6 35.7

The 12z Euro looks looks more realistic with heavy rain for the coast and wet snow for the higher elevations.

We just got NAMed with the 12z run. So we’ll have to see what the other guidance looks like. The other models have been more higher elevation snows and the NAM is outside its best range.

The new micronet shows how much temperature spread there can be within the 5 boroughs of NYC. 13th St./16th / Alphabet City 80 56 67 81 56 85 29 0.13 19 6:55pm 11 3:30pm 20.0 160 Ave. / Howard Beach 71 54 61 71 54 91 35 0.13 28th St. / Chelsea 0.09 23 7:25pm 10 6:40pm 16.2 Astoria 73 56 63 73 56 87 33 0.14 26 6:55pm 12 6:55pm 20.1 Bensonhurst / Mapleton 85 56 67 84 56 88 34 0.34 19.7 Bronx Mesonet 73 57 64 73 57 89 38 0.23 28 6:50pm 16 6:55pm 21.4 Brooklyn Mesonet 81 54 66 81 54 89 32 0.29 36 6:55pm 22 7:05pm 20.4 Brownsville 79 55 65 79 55 88 35 0.28 Corona 83 57 67 82 57 85 33 0.07 E 40th St. / Murray Hill 80 57 67 80 57 83 30 0.14 Fresh Kills 87 56 69 87 56 91 33 0.21 27 5:25pm 15 5:35pm Glendale / Maspeth 81 55 67 81 55 87 32 0.10 Gold Street / Navy Yard 85 58 69 85 58 82 29 0.13 33 5:35pm 15 9:55pm 19.6 Lefferts / South Ozone Park 73 55 63 73 55 90 35 0.14 Manhattan Mesonet 78 59 68 78 59 81 33 0.09 40 6:50pm 19 6:55pm 18.4 Newtown / Long Island City 80 56 66 80 56 85 32 0.10 20 8:50pm 9 1:10pm 19.2 Queens Mesonet 77 55 65 77 55 88 35 0.09 37 7:00pm 21 7:00pm 20.4 Queensbridge / Dutch Kills 82 57 67 82 57 83 32 0.12 16.8 Staten Island Mesonet 85 58 70 85 58 85 29 0.23 34 5:30pm 21 5:30pm 20.0 TLC Center 80 56 66 80 56 84 31 0.10 26 7:10pm 13 7:15pm 20.2 Tremont / Van Nest 71 57 63 71 57 86 37 0.10 21 7:10pm 7 1:10pm 19.9

The current policies will make it a challenge to keep warming below +2°C to +2.5°C. The long wait for approval of renewable projects is greatly slowing the energy transition in the US. China is continuing to expand their coal production. But it’s possible that the damages caused by global warming over the next 50 years will become intolerable to the international community. So the chances of extreme warming scenarios above +3°C could be diminished.

Continuation of the big weather swings pattern coming up. Areas that were in the 80s last few days will have another freeze by Monday morning. This is followed by a storm system that could have higher elevation wet snows and heavy rains near the coast. This coming week looks to feature the strongest -AO blocking pattern of the year so far. Late April will be a battle between the -AO block and the SE Ridge trying to flex. This will probably mean more back and forth with some cooler back door days and warmer days if the warm front can push to our north.

Yeah, the faster arrival of spring leaf out since 1981 is located to your south and east. Some of the earlier blooming flowers were damaged near the I -78 corridor back in late March.

The back and forth pattern continues as we are going from the 80s today to possible higher elevation snows early next week. Record warmth in early March to record cold at the end of the month. Cooler start to April before the record warmth today. So plenty of volatility with these rapid wavelength changes.

Newark tied the record high of 88°. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 0247 PM EDT THU APR 14 2022 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT NEWARK LIBERTY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 88 WAS TIED AT NEWARK NJ TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 88 SET IN 1941. RECORDS GO BACK TO THE YEAR 1931 AT THIS CLIMATE STATION.

The average high during the last week of April is in the upper 60s. So we usually find a way to at least make the 70s on the warmest days. But the SE Ridge will be dueling with the -AO block. This means that we will have competing highs to our north and south with a backdoor front nearby. It will be interesting to see if we can sneak in our next 80° then or the high to the north caps the maxes in the 60s and 70s.

The 80°+temperatures will be able to push further east today on more of a SW flow. Looks like the back and forth pattern of the spring will continue a while longer. Storm system for early next week could hug the coast. There is a chance that the higher elevations of the interior could see some wet snow. The models are hinting at a warm up for the last week of April. We’ll have to wait and see if this just means 60s and 70s or we can rival the 80° warmth of this week in the warmer spots. Today will be warmest day for a while Coastal hugger early next week with possible high elevation snow Next warm up moving east for last week of April

Numerous research teams are working on how to commercialize solid-state battery technology. https://cleantechnica.com/2022/04/11/nissan-nasa-to-take-on-solid-state-battery-challenge/ The solid-state battery is the Holy Grail of energy storage technology. It is projected to cost less than traditional lithium-ion batteries, have higher energy density, charge faster, and last longer. In other words, it is the “magic bullet” the world is waiting for to make the EV and energy storage revolutions complete. There’s only one problem. The solid-state battery doesn’t exist outside of the laboratory yet. Research into how to make it in commercial quantities is going on in hundreds of places around the world. Toyota says it is getting close. QuantumScape and StoreDot say they are almost there. CATL, LG Energy Solutions, SK Innnovation, and Samsung SDI are all hot on the trail. Now Nissan and NASA say they will team up to crack this particular nut using “computational materials science,” which is code for running zillions of computer models in the hopes of finding something that works. Most solid-state battery research today is focused on replacing the semi-liquid slurry that separates the internal components of conventional lithium-ion battery — which makes them look a little like a jellyroll when you slice them open. That goop is what burns when batteries overheat. It also increases the cost of batteries because it must be dried in the production process, which takes time, lots of energy, and requires a great deal of factory space. According to ArsTechnica, the Nissan/NASA collaboration will go beyond finding new solid materials to separate the anode from the cathode. They want to find ways to replace the raw materials used in today’s batteries completely — things like nickel, cobalt, manganese, and all the other minerals that require specialized mining techniques and are subject to wild commodity price swings. For instance, the price of nickel has more than doubled since the January, causing most manufacturers to raise the price of their electric cars at a time when economies of scale should be driving prices down. Nissan says it will have a pilot production facility to begin making batteries based on the new research by 2024 and expects cars powered by the next generation batteries to be available to customers by 2028, according to Detroit News. The new battery is expected to be half the size of today’s batteries and capable of charging in 15 minutes, although Nissan doesn’t say whether that performance will be possible with Level 2 charging equipment, as opposed to Level 3 DC fast chargers. Nissan vice president Kazuhiro Doi told the press this week, “Both NASA and Nissan need the same kind of battery.” Nissan and NASA will use what is called an “original material informatics platform” — a computerized database of hundreds of thousands of materials — to see which ones will work best to create new battery technologies. The battery development program will include researchers from the University of California San Diego. There is no guarantee that Nissan and NASA will achieve their goal, or that some other battery researchers won’t get a solid-state battery into production before they do. The good news for EV enthusiasts is better, cheaper, and faster charging batteries are coming. And when they arrive, the transition to affordable carbon-free transportation will accelerate dramatically.

If this solid-state battery technology works out, then we could begin to see much wider acceptance of EVs in the future. Faster charging times, improved safety, and lower cost than the current battery technology. Then we’ll just need to build out the charging infrastructure. Cell towers rapidly expanded once everybody wanted to have a cell phone.

Looks like it’s related to the record SSTs north of Australia and around Indonesia. So a continuation of this persistent La Niña background state. Unprecedented rainfall in Australia during recent months producing the extreme flash flooding. Models are forecasting a big drop in the IOD this summer. This would enhance the La Niña and contribute to an active hurricane season for the Atlantic. It also means that we could be on track for a rare 3rd year La Niña for next winter.

Brian Brettschneider has a great series of tweets showing how the humid subtropical climate shifted north into parts of our area on the new 1991-2020 climate normals update.

Yeah, this has been the deepest upper low for portions of the West in April. The raw -PNA values don’t really do this system justice. Impressive SOI rise for so late in the season.

it looks like the first few wave power stations are beginning to get built.

Models continuing with the big weather swings theme. 80s for the warm spots the next few days. Then the GEM and Euro have a storm for next week with coastal rains and maybe some high elevation interior snows mixed in.

Yeah, it has been rough for a number of people that I know. Earlier start to the season and more intense. They are even working on a new pollen forecast model.

Denmark has been getting close to 50% of their energy from mostly wind power. January set an all-time record of 68%. But places like Iceland are nearly all renewable from hydropower and geothermal.