bluewave

The GEM has the most extreme temperature gradient of all. Strong sea breeze and cooler temperatures east of the Hudson. Has highs of 95-100° in NJ.

Why can’t we take it seriously? It reached 102° at the end of June in Corona Queens. So the 103° at Newark reflected it being a degree warmer in NE NJ than Queens.

Last May into June was another famous post 2010 big temperature swing. It was the latest 52° high temperature at the end of May for Newark. Followed up by the earliest 103° high temperature at the end of June. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference 2021 05-29 (2021) 52 11-14 (2021) 48 168 1961 05-27 (1961) 49 10-15 (1961) 51 140 1967 05-25 (1967) 48 11-05 (1967) 47 163 1957 05-20 (1957) 52 10-26 (1957) 48 158 1976 05-19 (1976) 52 10-17 (1976) 50 150 First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First Value Last Value Difference 2021 06-30 (2021) 103 06-30 (2021) 103 0 1966 07-03 (1966) 105 07-03 (1966) 105 0 1949 07-04 (1949) 105 07-04 (1949) 105 0 1999 07-05 (1999) 103 07-05 (1999) 103 0 2010 07-06 (2010) 103 07-06 (2010) 103 0 1993 07-07 (1993) 103 07-10 (1993) 105 2

Long Island severe thunderstorms with straight line winds or hail usually peak in July and August. But some years like 2019 the peak is in late June.Tornados have a later peak from August to recently November. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=171&opt=ugc&station=OKX&state=NY&_ugc_state=NY&ugc=NYC103&phenomena=SV&significance=W&cmap=Reds&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

The EPS first guess for the Memorial Day weekend is much warmer than last year.

We will need for the debris clouds from earlier convection to clear the areas closer to NYC for a better chance of convection later. We’ll have to see if convection can fill in as that clear area over SE PA moves Northeast. The main focus right now is from NE PA up into NY State.

LGA and NYC still haven’t reached 80° yet. So the first 80° day is a month late. This much onshore flow is pretty unusual for our area in May. The purple colors below are near record levels of easterly flow for May. First/Last Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First Value Last Value Difference Minimum 03-26 (2021) 09-25 (2020) 134 Mean 04-21 10-06 167 Maximum 05-20 (2019) 10-20 (2021) 207 2021 03-26 (2021) 82 10-20 (2021) 80 207 2020 05-03 (2020) 81 09-25 (2020) 80 144 2019 05-20 (2019) 89 10-02 (2019) 95 134 2018 04-13 (2018) 82 10-11 (2018) 80 180 2017 04-16 (2017) 88 10-10 (2017) 81 176 2016 04-18 (2016) 80 10-19 (2016) 86 183 2015 05-04 (2015) 82 09-29 (2015) 83 147 2014 05-10 (2014) 82 09-28 (2014) 84 140 2013 04-09 (2013) 81 10-04 (2013) 86 177 2012 04-16 (2012) 85 10-05 (2012) 80 171 2011 04-26 (2011) 80 10-10 (2011) 82 166 2010 04-07 (2010) 91 09-29 (2010) 80 174 First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First Value Last Value Difference Minimum 03-26 (2021) 09-10 (2020) 129 Mean 04-16 09-30 166 Maximum 05-10 (2014) 10-19 (2016) 183 2021 03-26 (2021) 82 09-18 (2021) 84 175 2020 05-03 (2020) 80 09-10 (2020) 82 129 2019 04-19 (2019) 80 10-02 (2019) 93 165 2018 04-13 (2018) 82 10-10 (2018) 80 179 2017 04-11 (2017) 80 10-10 (2017) 81 181 2016 04-18 (2016) 82 10-19 (2016) 85 183 2015 04-18 (2015) 80 09-29 (2015) 83 163 2014 05-10 (2014) 83 09-28 (2014) 84 140 2013 04-09 (2013) 82 10-04 (2013) 86 177 2012 04-16 (2012) 88 09-14 (2012) 80 150 2011 04-11 (2011) 81 10-10 (2011) 81 181 2010 04-07 (2010) 92 09-25 (2010) 89 170

Very persistent easterly flow pattern for the whole month so far.

I wonder if this is the first time that the same cutoff low caused rain on two consecutive Saturdays? May 7th May 14th

This has to be one of the longer duration cutoffs we have seen in recent years.

You know it’s an over the top warm up when Caribou gets to 90° before Newark.

It continues to looks like the period around or just after the 20th will feature the first 90s potential of the season for the local warm spots. It’s impressive how the first 90° day of the year has been steady around May 20th since 1981 at Newark. But the first 70° has moved up a month from March 27th in 1981 to near March 1st in 2021. The first 70° in late February and the early bloom this year fit the pattern also. So an earlier start to spring while summer hasn’t moved up in time. This pattern is reversed in the fall with the last 90° occurring later creating the endless summer pattern.

Getting some elevated convection south of us now.

Our highest dewpoints of the season so far. MacArthur/ISP CLOUDY 74 65 73 SE7

The most extreme heat record with this May over the top heatwave was the new May all-time high temperature of 96° at Traverse City, Michigan. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 0127 AM EDT FRI MAY 13 2022 ...RECORD MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT TRAVERSE CITY MI... ...DAILY RECORDS SET AT TRAVERSE CITY, GAYLORD, AND PELLSTON... YESTERDAY, CHERRY CAPITAL AIRPORT IN TRAVERSE CITY HAD A HIGH OF 96 DEGREES. THIS SETS THE ALL-TIME WARMEST TEMPERATURE IN THE MONTH OF MAY. THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 95 HAS BEEN REACHED FOUR TIMES PREVIOUSLY IN MAY, MOST RECENTLY ON MAY 29 2018. THIS ALSO SHATTERS THE OLD RECORD HIGH FOR YESTERDAYS DATE, MAY 12, WHICH WAS 86 DEGREES, SET IN 1944. THIS IS ALSO THE EARLIEST IN THE YEAR IN WHICH TRAVERSE CITY HAS HIT 95 DEGREES OR WARMER. THE PREVIOUS EARLIEST 95 READING WAS ON MAY 20 1977. OTHER RECORDS BROKEN YESTERDAY... THE GAYLORD REGIONAL AIRPORT HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 90 DEGREES YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD FOR THIS DATE OF 84 DEGREES SET BACK IN 1991. THE PELLSTON AIRPORT HAD A HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 91 DEGREES YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD FOR THIS DATE OF 87 DEGREES SET BACK IN 2004.

This Is the first time we had such a negative April anomaly following a second-year La Niña. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/may-2022-enso-update-piece-cake At -1.1 °C, April 2022 was tied with 1950 for the strongest negative April anomaly in the 1950–present record. That’s according to ERSSTv5, our most reliable long-term sea surface temperature observationdataset. In the context of repeat La Niña events, the April average anomaly was noticeably stronger than any of the other 8 second-year La Niñas.

The main feature with a cutoff to our south is easterly flow. So we had clouds in the morning with sun in the afternoon and fog by the evening. It finally lifts north the next few days with some scattered showers as the low moves to our west. So the warm spots in NJ will see some 80s from Sunday into Monday with SW flow. Next weekend could be the first 90s of the season for the usual warm spots. We had one cooler run at 12z yesterday. But the 0z guidance is back to the warmer idea.

This is a much weaker version of the May 2020 over the top heatwave. That one produced the May all-time high of 95° at BTV while we were much cooler. So record heat directed to our NW is becoming more common with these record 500 mb ridges. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/05/28/montreal-record-may-heat/

Almost a week now that this cutoff has been stuck under the near record 588 dm block. So more of the same for our area. Scattered clouds and 60s near the shore today with onshore flow. Record heat potential well into the 80s over the interior Northeast.

Another one of these famous over the top warm ups that have become so common in recent years. High of 82° in BTV today with record warmth possible in the coming days. CLIMATE... Record daily high temperatures are possible on Thursday, Friday and Saturday 5/12-14. Here are the current records at our climate sites: Date KBTV KMPV K1V4 KMSS KPBG KSLK 5/12 84|2004 82|2004 85|2004 86|1992 83|1956 84|1911 5/13 84|1985 82|1985 77|2011 83|1992 86|1985 84|2004 5/14 86|1961 85|1961 85|2004 87|2004 84|1961 83|2004

Yeah, matches all the record high dewpoints and flash flood events in recent years.

Earliest 78° low on record for Topeka, Kansas by over 3 weeks. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 138 AM CDT WED MAY 11 2022 ...MONTHLY RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT TOPEKA KS... YESTERDAY'S LOW TEMPERATURE AT TOPEKA'S BILLARD AIRPORT WAS 78 DEGREES. THIS SETS THE RECORD FOR THE HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR MAY 10. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 75 DEGREES...SET IN 2011. THIS ALSO SETS THE RECORD FOR THE HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE IN THE MONTH OF MAY. THE PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 76 DEGREES...SET ON MAY 25, 1896...MAY 26, 2012...AND MAY 31, 2000.

This has been one of those rare times with easterly flow lasting for 2 weeks.

JFK only made it to 95° during the 1977 heatwave. We had strong sea breezes with that event along the South Shore. The SSTs were much cooler in the 1970s especially after the record breaking cold 76-77 winter. Data for January 1, 1977 through December 31, 1977 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NY NEW YORK LAUREL HILL COOP 104 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 104 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 103 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 102 CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 102 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 101 NY WEST POINT COOP 101 NY VANDERBILT MUSEUM COOP 101 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 100 NJ CRANFORD COOP 100 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 100 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 100 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 100 NY MARYKNOLL COOP 100 NY SCARSDALE COOP 100 CT NEW HAVEN COOP 100 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 100 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 100 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 99 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 99 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 99 NY SUFFERN COOP 99 CT DANBURY COOP 99 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 99 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 99 CT GROTON COOP 99 NY CARMEL COOP 98 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 98 NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 98 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 97 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 97 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 97 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 97 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 97 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 97 NY MINEOLA COOP 97 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 96 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 96 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 95 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 95 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 95 NY GREENPORT POWER HOUSE COOP 94 CT PUTNAM LAKE COOP 94 CT WESTBROOK COOP 93 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 93 NY MONTAUK COOP 93 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 93 NY WANTAGH CEDAR CREEK COOP 91

The whole area has gotten much hotter. But the tree growth at NYC is masking the summer daytime warming. If anything, the LGA ASOS is too close to the water. So it’s subject to cooler breezes at times. Last summer the warmest part of NYC was in Central Queens just south of LGA. The 6-30-21 high at LGA was 100° and 102° at Corona. So that section of Queens was comparable to the area around Newark.The new micronet snapshot from early afternoon illustrated what was happening. There was a local convergence zone just north of the sea breeze front. The warmth probably was enhanced by some local downsloping off the higher moraine.