bluewave

White Plains in Westchester County just tied the highest July dewpoint for 11 am at 77°. White Plains MOSUNNY 88 77 HX 100 https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=153&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=HPN&month=jul&var=max_dwpf&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Wednesday was the warmest day in Somerset County and parts of Westchester County since 2012. Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 2022 100 164 2021 98 1 2020 96 0 2019 98 1 2018 95 3 2017 95 1 2016 97 0 2015 97 50 2014 94 0 2013 97 4 2012 101 17 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 2022 97 166 2021 95 5 2020 93 1 2019 95 7 2018 94 0 2017 93 6 2016 95 0 2015 95 3 2014 90 5 2013 94 1 2012 98 2

Newark and Somerset airport both made it to 100° yesterday with westerly flow at Newark before the sea breeze arrived. Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2022-07-20 100 2022-07-19 94 2022-07-18 93 Data for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2022-07-20 100 2022-07-19 93 2022-07-18 93

When the SSTs and the dewpoints both reach 75° It only takes a weak trigger to set off convection.

The Newark ASOS has been right in line with other urban stations for the last few weeks. There was a period back in June and early July when it was only 1-2° warmer than the other urban sites. But that could just be within the normal warm season variability from station to station. Just check all the other local highs. There hasn’t been any period recently when the Newark ASOS was 4-5° warmer then the next highest temperature in our area.

Yeah, most models like the RGEM have active sea breeze front convection today. The dewpoints are already in the mid 70s on Long Island. Hopefully, the axis of heaviest storms can get your area. MacArthur/ISP PTSUNNY 77 76

We had at least 4 ground level stations reach 100° yesterday across the area. 3 of these stations were mesonets and 1 was Newark airport. So with this new expanded coverage, we are finding out that Newark really isn’t that unique in terms of heat. The local TV and radio outlets need to highlight more than just the NYC ASOS in Central Park which is in error. The dense tree growth shading the sensor can be 3° or more degrees cooler than just a few hundred feet away on an open lawn in Central Park. That is how much cooler a shielded sensor can be tucked under dense vegetation with shade and leaf transpiration. Many TV and radio forecasts were leading with highs of 90-95° yesterday for NYC. This was due to them just focusing on Central Park instead of the whole area. Outside of the immediate shore, the better range was a high of 95° to 100° which models like the Euro and HRRR did very well with. So the artificially cool NYC readings are one reason it’s rare to see 100° in a local broadcast forecast. ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-20 Mesonet 100 Newark …….100 Brownsville 100 Corona 100

The Euro has an impressive temperature and dewpoint gradient when the heatwave peaks on Sunday. Highs of 104° in New Jersey with mid 70s dewpoints near the coast. So a very strong Ambrose Jet event with gusts to 35 mph along the South Shore.

You know the soil and vegetation has to be very dry for a farm in Somerset County to be almost as hot as Newark. ▼ Hillsborough-Duke NJ 2022-07-20 15:00 Mesonet 99 https://www.njweather.org/station/3572 https://www.njweather.org/maps/station-locations

High of 99° so far at Newark which is close to the daily record of 101°. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kewr 7/20 101 in 1980 100 in 1991 98 in 2019+

95° at South Ozone Park in Queens with the lawn really drying out. https://www2.nysmesonet.org/networks/nyc Current Conditions at Lefferts / South Ozone Park 11:30 AMNortheast Air Temperature 95°F July 20, 2022 11:25 AM EDT Elevation: 32 feet Relative Humidity: 44% Station Pressure: 29.74″ Snow Depth*: -- Liquid-Equivalent Precipitation 6 hours: 0.00″ 1 day: 0.00″

Updated for the 4.31 at Tarrytown and 4.25 at Fair Lawn which were the highest area rainfall totals. https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=202207191556-KOKX-NOUS41-PNSOKX

This July is continuing the pattern since 2013 of much lower Arctic summer 500 mb heights than the record 2007-2012 dipole era. The unusually cold conditions with low pressure near the North Pole earlier this month shifted over closer to Alaska this week. The trough has set a new record low 500mb height for July in this area. This has resulted in a slowing of the extent decline rates near the Beaufort and Chukchi seas. https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ In terms of air temperature, the first half of July 2022 was a tale of regional contrasts (Figure 2a). On the Eurasian side of the Arctic, particularly in the Laptev and Barents Seas, extending toward the North Pole, air temperatures at the 925 mb level (about 2,500 feet about the surface) were 3 to 6 degrees Celsius (5 to 11 degrees Fahrenheit) below average. On the North American side of the Arctic, air temperatures were as much as 8 degrees Celsius (14 degrees Fahrenheit) above average, notably in the southeast Beaufort Sea and the western Canadian Arctic Archipelago. The sea level pressure pattern was dominated by low pressure over the Laptev Sea sector, centered near the North Pole (Figure 2b). Why has no new record-minimum Arctic sea-ice extent occurred since September 2012? https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abc047 One of the clearest indicators of human-caused climate change is the rapid decline in Arctic sea ice. The summer minimum coverage is now approximately half of its extent only 40 yr ago. Four records in the minimum extent were broken since 2000, the most recent occurring in September 2012. No new records have been set since then, however, owing to an abrupt atmospheric shift during each August/early-September that brought low sea-level pressure, cloudiness, and unfavorable wind conditions for ice reduction. While random variability could be the cause, we identify a recently increased prevalence of a characteristic large-scale atmospheric pattern over the northern hemisphere. This pattern is associated not only with anomalously low pressure over the Arctic during summer, but also with frequent heatwaves over East Asia, Scandinavia, and northern North America, as well as the tendency for a split jet stream over the continents. This jet-stream configuration has been identified as favoring extreme summer weather events in northern mid-latitudes. We propose a mechanism linking these features with diminishing spring snow cover on northern-hemisphere continents that acts as a negative feedback on the loss of Arctic sea ice during summer.

The HRRR and Euro both have 100° potential today around Newark which has been so dry this month.

The cold January this year was the one outlier from our new climo since 2010. December was the warmest departure month of winter as usual. The record heat at the end of May matched the typical highest departure month of spring. The slow start to summer in June for most was right on also. Now the expected big July warm up right on cue. The August departure should be higher than June was. Then our classic endless summer pattern in September. The monthly temperature increases from 81-10 to 91-20 ……….EWR…..ISP Dec…+1.5….+1.5 Jan….+1.2…+1.3 Feb….+0.5….+0.5 Mar….+0.4….+0.6 Apr….+0.5…..+0.6 May...+0.6….+0.9 Jun….+0.3….+0.6 Jul…..+1.4…..+1.1 Aug...+0.6….+0.9 Sep….+1.0….+1.3 Oct…..+0.9..+1.4 Nov….+0.2..+0.5

Pretty good agreement between the Euro and GFS on the major heat lasting through at least Sunday. The wildcard for Monday will be the timing of the cold front and severe storms. If the front slows down, then we can tack another day onto the major heatwave. 850 mb temperatures rise to around +20C from Wednesday into Saturday. So the warm spots could easily make a run on 100°. The Euro and GFS have 850 mb temperatures peaking at +22C to +24C by Sunday. This means that places that haven’t reached 100° since 2010-2013 could do it on Sunday. Euro 21z Wednesday 21z Sunday

Ozone Park, Howard Beach, and Brownsville made it to 95° a few minutes ago. https://www2.nysmesonet.org/networks/nyc 95°F

The developing drought area in Central New Jersey has been at or above 90° since the 12th. Data for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2022-07-18 93 2022-07-17 89 2022-07-16 91 2022-07-15 90 2022-07-14 92 2022-07-13 93 2022-07-12 93

At least for the first day of the heatwave on Monday, the high temperature at Newark was in line with the other local NJ local stations. Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2022-07-18 93 Data for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2022-07-18 94 Data for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2022-07-18 93 Data for TRENTON-MERCER AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2022-07-18 93

Newark is currently at the 3rd driest July 1 to July 19 on record.This is the first time Newark was so dry at 0.38 while NYC had 3.29. All the previous under .50 periods since 1931 at Newark were also dry in NYC. So another 1st for our more extreme post 2010 climate. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Precipitation Jul 1 to Jul 19 NYC Jul 1 to 19 1 1939-07-19 0.20 0.14 2 1932-07-19 0.25 0.43 3 2022-07-19 0.38 3.29 4 1982-07-19 0.39 0.19 5 1980-07-19 0.40 1.20 6 1966-07-19 0.45 0.61

Southhold finished with 3.33” and picked up 1.00” in 10 min. That may be the heaviest 10 minute total there since the station was set up a few years ago.

This is going be our 8th top 10 warmest July since 2010 at our major climate stations. The previous years were 2020, 2019, 2016, 2013, 2012, 2011, and 2010. The last top 10 coolest July in our area was in 2009.

Flash flooding on Eastern LI with 3.33” at Southold. http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#network=nysm&stid=sout

2.68” now with 1.00” in the last 10 minutes.

1.54” at Southhold since 12pm with 1.00” in 20 min. https://www2.nysmesonet.org/weather/meteogram#network=nysm&stid=sout