bluewave

This year continues the big weather swings theme. Record warmth in December was followed by our coldest January in several winters. Then a warm up in February into March with record high temperatures and an early bloom. Followed by the late March hard freeze. Then we experienced a record Northeast ridge in May which was replaced by a trough into mid-June. So it’s hard to look at past analogs for clues to the future since these current patterns are more extreme.

We can’t compare pre 1990s heat records in NYC to the current ones due to the extensive tree growth artificially lowering high temperature records. The summer of 1955 was 5th highest at Newark for 95° days. It ranked 12th highest for total number of 90° days. It was only 18th warmest for mean maximum temperature at Newark. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Missing Count 1 1993 25 0 2 2010 21 0 3 1988 20 0 - 1944 20 0 4 2021 18 0 5 2012 17 0 - 2011 17 0 - 2002 17 0 - 1955 17 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 54 0 2 1993 49 0 3 1988 43 0 4 2021 41 0 - 2002 41 0 - 1991 41 0 5 2016 40 0 - 1983 40 0 - 1959 40 0 6 1994 39 0 - 1944 39 0 7 2005 37 0 - 1987 37 0 8 2018 36 0 - 1949 36 0 9 2015 35 0 10 1961 34 0 11 2012 33 0 - 1999 33 0 - 1995 33 0 - 1966 33 0 12 1955 32 0 - 1953 32 0 - 1943 32 - - - Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1993 88.8 0 2 2010 87.9 0 3 1994 87.6 0 4 2021 87.3 0 5 2011 87.0 0 - 1988 87.0 0 6 1966 86.8 0 7 2016 86.6 0 - 1949 86.6 0 8 2020 86.5 0 9 2005 86.3 0 - 1944 86.3 0 10 1999 86.1 0 - 1995 86.1 0 - 1991 86.1 0 11 1983 86.0 0 12 2012 85.9 0 13 2002 85.8 0 14 2008 85.4 0 - 1987 85.4 0 - 1943 85.4 0 15 1973 85.3 0 16 2018 85.2 0 - 2015 85.2 0 17 2019 85.0 0 - 1953 85.0 0 18 2006 84.9 0 - 1952 84.9 0 19 1955 84.8 0

The 1955 and 1977 summers weren’t really that hot compared to recent standards. But the 1955 was much warmer than 1977. The summer of 1977 was mostly remembered for the famous 9 day heatwave in mid-July. JJA 1977 only finished +0.6 relative to that cooler era.

We are shifting the persistent June over the top warm pattern of the last 5 years. The record heat in the Upper Plains to Great Lakes is getting replaced by a cooler trough. So lower chances of any extended 90° heat for a while.

Another heavy downpour here in SW Suffolk. So the first two days of a June produced heavy downpours. The blocking and Great Lakes trough continues for the next few weeks on the EPS. So more chances for convection from time to time.

Modoki El Niño’s with 50” of snow and colder than average winters have become an endangered species for Central Park.

The Alden difax model forecast charts low resolution back in the 80s was like trying to read an etch a sketch. Then you had the paper jams to deal with. Plus the models were really primitive compared to what we have today. By the 90s, the Euro really improved and scored a big win with the January 1996 blizzard. THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS RESOLUTION OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES BY SATURDAY JANUARY 6 (DAY 3) AND INTO THE PLAINS ON SUN JANUARY 7 (DAY 4). THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE MOST DEFINITION TO THIS SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY HAS A 1010 MB LOW MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN GA/AL BORDER ON SUN JANUARY 7 (DAY 4) AND BOMBING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST (984 MB) BY MON JANUARY 8 (DAY 5). THE MRF IS MUCH MORE FRAGMENTED AND POSITIVELY TILTED WITH THIS TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY HAS ONLY A WEAK 1014 MB WAVE SHEARING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST ON SUN JANUARY 7 (DAY 4). THE RESOLUTION OF SHORT WAVES IN THE BASE OF TROUGHS IS AN AREA THE MRF OFTEN DOES A POOR JOB WITH....WE ARE TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF."

Back In the colder era, all previous 98°+Mays like this year at Newark were the highest temperature of the whole year. So that used to be a front-loaded heat signal. Last year the highest temperature of the season was in June. Then the monsoon came and we had a rare near seasonable July. Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year May Jun Jul Aug Sep Season 1996 99 92 91 92 92 99 2022 98 71 M M M 98 1992 98 90 97 95 90 98 1987 98 96 97 97 87 98 1962 98 94 96 93 87 98 Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year May Jun Jul Aug Sep Season 2021 96 103 97 99 91 103 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 2021 78.8 0 2020 80.8 0 2019 80.6 0 2018 78.2 0 2017 77.3 0 2016 79.9 0 2015 79.0 0 2014 77.0 0 2013 80.9 0 2012 80.8 0 2011 82.7 0 2010 82.3 0

This -AO block is the 2nd strongest on record for the month of June. It came in just behind the all-time June record of -2.921 set in 1992. Hopefully, some of this rubs off on next winter like it did after June 2009. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.daily.ao.nao.pna.aao.gdas.120days.csv 02Jun2022 -2.6465 https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii -2.921….6-29-92 -2.646….6-2-22 -2.610…..6-25-87 -2.510…..6-7-55 -2.470…..6-8-51 -2.406…..6-29-09

Models were lucky to get the forecast right a day or two in advance during the 70s and 80s. Then the Euro did really well with the March 1993 storm of the century and January 1996 blizzard. Sometimes the Euro seasonal can do well with a 3 month forecast like it did last summer. But winter seasonal forecasts have much less skill. Probably too difficult to get the state of the polar vortex and MJO correct very far in advance. AI may need to be added to the models to have a chance at pushing beyond the 2 week limit.

Wettest start to meteorological summer at JFK since 2003. The 1.36 nearly tied the daily record. So heavy rains just one day after the record heat. Data for June 1 - JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Precipitation Snowfall Snow Depth 2003-06-01 66 54 1.37 0.0 0 2022-06-01 67 59 1.36 M M 1975-06-01 75 66 1.35 0.0 0 2018-06-01 75 63 1.18 0.0 0

This was our greatest high temperature drop from May 31 to June 1. All the other years with such a warm end to May were also warm to start June. The high of 71° at Newark today was 27° cooler than the record high of 98° yesterday. So a continuation of the our big weather swings theme. Data for May 31 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature June 1st Difference 2022-05-31 98 71 -27 1987-05-31 96 94 -2 1986-05-31 95 94 -1 1939-05-31 95 83 -12 2013-05-31 94 93 -1 2007-05-31 94 92 -2 1988-05-31 94 93 -1 1944-05-31 94 87 -7 1991-05-31 92 87 -5 1956-05-31 92 87 -5 1937-05-31 92 94 +2

The effective range of most ensemble guidance is only about 7 to sometimes 15 days. We have been experiencing some very big swings in our weather recently. So trying to figure out the patterns beyond 2 weeks is usually pretty low skill.

This may be the first time that the biggest -AO and -NAO drop of the year was delayed until June.

This is an unusual pattern shift from May to June. Maybe it’s related to the developing -IOD and amplified MJO 7-8? Most of the past years with such a strong May ridge over the Northeast we’re followed by a ridge over the Great Lakes in June. The models have an opposite pattern with a Great Lakes trough into at least mid-June.

It’’s going to be a while before we get record heat again like we had yesterday. The whole pattern is shifting right as we start June. May featured consistent onshore flow and short periods record heat only lasting a day or two. The record ridge over the Northeast and Great Lakes is getting replaced by a trough. May pattern Much different pattern into mid-June

Yeah, EWR got the June all-time high temperature record of 103° last summer before the historic rains arrived. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 103 0 2 2011 102 0 - 1994 102 0 - 1993 102 0 - 1952 102 0 - 1943 102 0 3 1988 101 0 - 1966 101 0 4 1959 100 0 - 1953 100 0 - 1934 100 0

The 98° at Newark was the 2nd highest temperature recorded during the month of May. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of May Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1996 99 0 2 1992 98 0 1987 98 0 1962 98 0 2022 98 0

Highest May temperature at Newark since the all-time record of 99° set in 1996. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 331 PM EDT TUE MAY 31 2022 ...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT NEWARK LIBERTY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT... A DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 98 HAS BEEN SET SO FAR TODAY AT NEWARK LIBERTY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 96 SET IN 1987. RECORDS AT NEWARK LIBERTY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT GO BACK TO THE YEAR 1931.

The blowing pollen really reduced the visibility when the backdoor came through New England earlier.

LGA getting a cooler breeze off the water compared to the heat at Astoria and Corona. LGA May 31, 2:51 pm 92 56 30 NNW 14G17 Astoria Temp: 96°F Corona Temp: 97°F

The backdoor is through MTP with a rapid 15° drop. May 31, 2:54 pm 72 59 64 E 12G20 1013.80 29.93 29.94 May 31, 1:54 pm 87 65 48 W 7 1012.80 29.90 29.91 88 72

Mid 90s at the warm spots on the NYC micronet. Fresh Kills Temp: 95°F Bensonhurst / Mapleton Temp: 95°F Lefferts / South Ozone Park Temp: 96°F Astoria Temp: 95°F Corona Temp: 95°F

The pollen cloud that the backdoor is kicking up is very impressive.

Boston just experienced one of its greatest 10 minute temperature drops for the month of May.