bluewave

Very impressive downslope warming at Newark. Newark Liberty MOSUNNY 94 56 27 W23G43

A two day June temperature drop at Newark from the 90s to 50s is impressive.Top 10 greatest from the daily high to the daily low two days later is 36° to 41°. Maybe Newark can beat expectations today and creep up to the 92° to 95°range.Then all it needs to do is make a run on 55° or lower Sunday morning to approach a 40° drop. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&hours=42&month=jun&dir=cool&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

While today will be one of our few 90° days this month, we have had a top 10 warmest June 1st to 15th. The new much warmer 1991-2020 climate normals really reduces the departures. In our new warmer climate, a lack of extended heat makes things feel cooler. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Jun 15 Missing Count 1 2008-06-15 71.8 0 2 1999-06-15 71.7 0 3 1973-06-15 71.4 0 4 1984-06-15 71.2 0 5 2005-06-15 70.1 0 6 2021-06-15 69.1 0 7 2010-06-15 68.8 0 8 2011-06-15 68.7 0 9 2022-06-15 68.6 0 - 1991-06-15 68.6 0 10 2014-06-15 68.5 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Jun 15 Missing Count 1 1973-06-15 76.9 0 2 1984-06-15 76.2 0 3 2008-06-15 76.1 0 4 2005-06-15 75.9 0 5 1994-06-15 75.2 0 6 2021-06-15 74.9 0 7 1999-06-15 74.5 0 8 2022-06-15 73.9 0 9 1992-06-15 73.6 0 10 2010-06-15 73.5 0

First model guess for the start of July Is a ridge in the Rockies and Plains. Some hint of a continuing trough near New England. Also a bit of a -EPO +PNA pattern. The wild card may how much blocking verifies SE of Greenland. Stronger blocking there would keep more of a trough in New England. But a weaker block in the North Atlantic could allow a stronger WAR to link up with the ridge to our west.

Friday will be another one of our brief warm up days. Then the low temperatures fall into the 50s by Sunday morning. So a continuation of the blocking pattern for a while longer.

The 2012 model forecast for the rate of extent decline to slow following the 2007-2012 historic losses was very impressive. https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/7/555/2013/tc-7-555-2013.pdf Mechanisms causing reduced Arctic sea ice loss in a coupled climate model A. E. West, A. B. Keen, and H. T. Hewitt Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK Received: 09 May 2012 – Discussion started: 18 Jul 2012 – Revised: 04 Feb 2013 – Accepted: 18 Feb 2013 – Published: 26 Mar 2013 Abstract. The fully coupled climate model HadGEM1 produces one of the most accurate simulations of the historical record of Arctic sea ice seen in the IPCC AR4 multi-model ensemble. In this study, we examine projections of sea ice decline out to 2030, produced by two ensembles of HadGEM1 with natural and anthropogenic forcings included. These ensembles project a significant slowing of the rate of ice loss to occur after 2010, with some integrations even simulating a small increase in ice area. We use an energy budget of the Arctic to examine the causes of this slowdown. A negative feedback effect by which rapid reductions in ice thickness north of Greenland reduce ice export is found to play a major role. A slight reduction in ocean-to-ice heat flux in the relevant period, caused by changes in the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) and subpolar gyre in some integrations, as well as freshening of the mixed layer driven by causes other than ice melt, is also found to play a part. Finally, we assess the likelihood of a slowdown occurring in the real world due to these causes. How to cite. West, A. E., Keen, A. B., and Hewitt, H. T.: Mechanisms causing reduced Arctic sea ice loss in a coupled climate model, The Cryosphere, 7, 555–567, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-555-2013, 2013. New paper discusses the slowdown since the last record in 2012. Recent Slowdown in the Decline of Arctic Sea Ice Volume Under Increasingly Warm Atmospheric and Oceanic Conditions Jinlun Zhang First published: 25 August 2021 https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094780 Citations: 1 Here, 2007 is selected as a starting year to examine the slowdown of the Arctic SIV in recent years. This is based on the consideration that 2007 saw a record low summer ice extent at that time, before a new record set in 2012. Nevertheless, the selection is somewhat arbitrary, and one can certainly select a different starting year for analysis. However, moderately shifting the starting year away from 2007 (e.g., 2005, 2006, 2008, and 2009) would not fundamentally change this model study's conclusions that a slowdown of the Arctic SIV decline has occurred in recent years. Note that the model simulated Arctic SIV drops from 1979 to a local minimum in 1982 and then peaks in 1987 (Figure 2a). There is no significant trend in SIV during the period 1979–1987. While there is no significant trend in SIV either during the period 2007–2020, the later period differs from the early period 1979–1987 in two key aspects: (a) SIV in 2007–2020 is much lower than in 1979–1987, and (b) SAT and UOT are climbing increasingly higher in 2007–2020, while dropping in 1979–1987. The thinner ice cover during 2007–2020 leads the ice export and growth processes to play a role in serving as a negative feedback to slow down the SIV decline, which is not seen in 1979–1987. It is expected that such a role may become more prominent in the future. In other words, the slowdown of the Arctic SIV decline may continue for some time in the future unless a stronger Arctic warming than the present would occur. Whether it is true remains to be seen through enhanced observations and modeling.

Toledo, Ohio had a record high of 98° yesterday surpassing the previous record set in 1994. So this will be a rare instance of record heat so close to our west not making it here. The same date back in 1994 Newark set a record high of 101°. Toledo Area, OHPeriod of record: 1873-03-01 through 2022-06-15 6/15 98 in 2022 96 in 1994 95 in 1988+ Newark Area, NJPeriod of record: 1931-01-01 through 2022-06-15 6/15 101 in 1994 99 in 1988 99 in 1945

Really interesting presentation on how climate change can generate these types of regional extremes. 15:29–15:35 | EGU22-10405 | ECS | Highlight | OSPP | Virtual presentation 2021 North American Heat Wave Fueled by Climate-Change-Driven Nonlinear Interactions Samuel Bartusek, Kai Kornhuber, and Mingfang Ting Extreme heat conditions in the Pacific Northwest US and Southwestern Canada in summer 2021 were of unprecedented severity. Constituting a 5-sigma anomaly, the heatwave affected millions, likely led to thousands of excess deaths, and promoted wildfires that decreased air quality throughout the continent. Even as global warming causes an increase in the severity and frequency of heatwaves both locally and globally, this event’s magnitude went beyond what many would have considered plausible under current climate conditions. It is thus important to attribute such an exceptional event to specific physical drivers and assess its relation to climate change, to improve projection and prediction of future extreme heat events. A particularly pressing question is whether any changing variability of atmospheric dynamics or land-atmosphere interaction is implicated in amplifying current and future heat extremes. Using ERA5 reanalysis, we find that slow- and fast-moving components of the atmospheric circulation interacted to trigger extreme geopotential height anomalies during this event. We additionally identify anomalously low soil moisture levels as a critical event driver: we find that land-atmosphere feedbacks drove nonlinear amplification of its temperature anomaly by 40% (contributing 3K of the 10K peak regional-mean anomaly), catalyzed by multidecadal temperature and soil moisture trends. This is supported by a model experiment demonstrating that soil moisture interaction may increase the likelihood of the observed monthly-scale regional temperature anomaly by O(10)x. We estimate that over the four recent decades of gradual warming, the event’s temperature anomaly has become 10–100 times more likely, transforming from a ~10,000-year to a 100–1,000-year occurrence. Its likelihood continues to increase, roughly exponentially, and it is projected to recur ~20-yearly by 2060 based on continued warming at a constant rate. Our results therefore suggest an important role of atmospheric dynamics and nonlinear land-atmosphere interactions in driving this exceptional heat extreme, promoted by a long-term warming trend due to anthropogenic climate change that will continue to increase the likelihood of such extremes under continued emissions. How to cite: Bartusek, S., Kornhuber, K., and Ting, M.: 2021 North American Heat Wave Fueled by Climate-Change-Driven Nonlinear Interactions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10405, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10405, 2022.

We are still dealing with the Atlantic blocking pattern that emerged after March 20th. Big reversal from the winter into early spring. The next few weeks will probably determine what kind of summer we have for heat. If the warm ups keep getting pushed back, then this summer probably won’t be as hot as last. If the blocking fades and the WAR can link up with the Plains ridge, then it will be off to the races for the heat. Where was this pattern during the winter? Dec 1 to Mar 20 below normal snowfall for many Blocking emerges after March 20th with brief warm ups followed by cool downs

The EPS is coming in stronger with the blocking from the weekend into early next week. So we’ll have to wait a while longer for our first official 3 day heatwave. All warm ups since late May have lasted 1-2 days due to the blocking pushing back against the amplifying heat ridges. But we have been getting a higher than average number of 80°+ days. This is how places like Newark are running more than +3. New run Old run

That’s what we would expect to happen with the typical La Niña June to July progression. The rough composites have more of an omega pattern in June. The WAR flexes as we move into July.

We’ll have to see if the WAR can link up with the Plains ridge near the start of July for more extended heat than these 1 to 2 day brief surges of 90s.

Yeah, Corona Queens and Newark both made it to 103°on 6-30-21. It was the warmest June temperature on record at Newark. The new NYC micronet is a valuable addition to our local weather observations. 13th St./16th / Alphabet City 101 75 90 107 75 91 35 0.40 26 9:10pm 11 9:10pm 25.9 160 Ave. / Howard Beach 91 76 83 102 76 89 51 0.08 28th St. / Chelsea 99 75 89 103 75 94 35 0.98 30 8:50pm 13 9:05pm 20.4 Astoria 100 73 89 107 73 95 36 0.58 26 9:00pm 13 9:05pm 23.8 Bensonhurst / Mapleton 97 78 88 107 78 84 39 0.00 26.3 Bronx Mesonet 98 75 88 103 75 90 37 0.38 35 8:55pm 15 9:00pm 28.7 Brooklyn Mesonet 95 75 86 103 75 87 41 0.00 31 10:05pm 18 9:30pm 26.9 Brownsville 97 76 88 106 76 89 40 0.19 Corona 103 75 90 109 75 92 34 0.35 E 40th St. / Murray Hill 99 74 89 104 74 93 37 0.66 Fresh Kills 99 73 88 105 73 94 36 0.06 27 9:40pm 16 9:40pm Glendale / Maspeth 99 74 89 107 74 93 37 0.33 Gold Street / Navy Yard 100 75 88 105 75 90 35 0.30 32 9:00pm 16 9:00pm 26.2 Lefferts / South Ozone Park 95 74 85 105 74 93 49 0.10 Manhattan Mesonet 97 73 87 102 73 94 39 0.98 35 8:45pm 19 8:50pm 21.6 Newtown / Long Island City 99 74 89 104 74 90 36 0.25 25 9:10pm 11 5:55pm 24.3 Queens Mesonet 94 73 86 103 73 92 45 0.27 38 9:05pm 20 9:10pm 24.0 Queensbridge / Dutch Kills 100 74 90 105 74 95 34 0.63 19.5 Staten Island Mesonet 97 72 86 104 72 94 40 0.12 36 9:40pm 17 9:40pm 24.2 TLC Center 97 73 87 101 73 94 38 0.64 26 8:50pm 11 9:55pm 23.6 Tremont / Van Nest 103 75 90 110 75 92 32 0.45 24 8:50pm 12 5:05pm 2 Data for June 30, 2021 through June 30, 2021 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 103 NJ HARRISON COOP 101 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 100 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 100

Parts of NYC away from the sea breeze are just as hot as the Newark area is. The NYC micronet is doing a good job at filling in the temperatures between the airports which are right on the water. The record heat on May 31st was impressive around NYC and Newark. May 31st highs 13th St./16th / Alphabet City 99 67 85 99 67 78 27 0.00 16 9:05pm 7 11:20am 26.9 160 Ave. / Howard Beach 96 68 81 96 68 88 32 0.00 28th St. / Chelsea 96 70 85 96 70 73 29 0.00 25 11:45am 10 11:45am 25.0 Astoria 97 64 84 97 64 82 30 0.00 18 10:15pm 9 10:15am 26.0 Bensonhurst / Mapleton 97 71 84 97 71 81 31 0.00 25.0 Bronx Mesonet 94 63 82 94 63 79 32 0.00 24 11:50pm 15 11:25pm 29.2 Brooklyn Mesonet 93 67 82 93 67 82 32 0.00 26 10:45am 16 10:40am 27.1 Brownsville 100 69 84 100 69 77 27 0.00 Corona 99 66 84 99 66 80 28 0.00 E 40th St. / Murray Hill 96* 70* 85* 96* 70* 70* 30* Fresh Kills 97 69 85 97 69 82 29 0.00 22 10:05am 12 9:50am Glendale / Maspeth 96 65 83 96 65 81 30 0.00 Gold Street / Navy Yard 96 66 84 96 66 78 30 0.00 23 10:30am 13 10:50am 26.6 Lefferts / South Ozone Park 98 68 83 98 68 80 29 0.00 Manhattan Mesonet 93 65 82 93 65 79 31 0.00 27 1:45am 17 10:10am 27.6 Newtown / Long Island City 96 65 84 96 65 80 28 0.00 25 11:25am 14 9:55pm 25.3 Queens Mesonet 93 64 81 93 64 87 32 0.00 26 10:25am 15 10:45am 26.1 Queensbridge / Dutch Kills 98 66 85 98 66 75 28 0.00 23.7 Staten Island Mesonet 95 69 84 95 69 80 30 0.00 29 10:10am 17 10:20am 28.4 TLC Center 94 65 83 94 65 78 30 0.00 24 10:20pm 10 10:05pm 28.0 Tremont / Van Nest 99 63 85 99 63 81 28 0.00 18 10:15pm 8 12:45am 27.0 Monthly Data for May 2022 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 98 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 98 NJ HARRISON COOP 96 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 95

33 days reaching 90° is the new average for EWR from 2010 to 2021. So 2017 and 2014 were the only significantly below average years during this period. Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Season Mean 0 2 6 14 8 3 0 33 2021 0 4 12 11 13 1 0 41 2020 0 0 5 17 9 0 0 31 2019 0 1 4 14 4 3 1 27 2018 0 4 5 9 14 4 0 36 2017 0 3 5 9 2 3 0 22 2016 0 3 3 16 13 5 0 40 2015 0 2 4 11 13 5 0 35 2014 0 0 2 8 2 3 0 15 2013 0 2 4 15 3 1 0 25 2012 0 2 6 16 7 2 0 33 2011 0 1 4 22 4 0 0 31 2010 1 2 13 21 11 6 0 54

2014 was the last time that Newark had a top 10 lowest number of 90° days. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 1967 7 0 2 1996 9 0 3 1985 11 0 4 1982 12 0 - 1975 12 0 - 1946 12 0 5 2004 13 0 6 2009 14 0 - 1962 14 0 - 1956 14 0 - 1935 14 0 7 2014 15 0 - 1976 15 0 - 1969 15 0 - 1960 15 0 - 1942 15 0 - 1940 15 0 8 2000 16 0 - 1978 16 0 9 1932 17 0 10 1974 18 0 - 1954 18 0 - 1951 18 0 - 1950 18 0 - 1938 18 0 - 1934 18 0

Pretty impressive omega pattern for the 2nd half of a June. A piece of the Great Lakes heat comes east with 90s potential on Friday. Then a quick temperature drop to lows in the 50s and maybe 40s interior for Sunday morning. We’ll have to see how much heat can come east later in June when the ridge flexes to our west again.

This summer is starting out with EWR having warmer temperature departures than LGA. We saw a pattern like this last summer. It’s a reversal from LGA having the higher departures from 2018 to 2020. So our stations are very sensitive to prevailing wind directions since they are located so close to the Atlantic and LI Sound. JJA 2022 so far EWR…+3.5 LGA….+0.6 JJA 2021 EWR…+2.5 LGA…..+0.7 JJA….2020 EWR….+2.4 LGA…..+4.2 JJA….2019 EWR….+1.3 LGA…..+2.0 JJA……2018 EWR….+1.3 LGA……+2.6

The sea breezes are keeping areas to the east of Newark much cooler than the +3.5 there. EWR…+3.5 NYC…..+1.0 LGA……+0.6 JFK……+1.4 ISP…….+1.9 BDR……+1.1 HPN……+1.3

Highest dewpoint in 11 years for CVG to 80°. So the record heat and humidity will be very impressive to our west this week. Temperatures will rise to the upper 90s to around 100° next few days around the Great Lakes. Past record heat for the Great Lakes in mid-June also made it here. The 12z OP Euro has potential highs in the mid 90s for for Newark on Friday with a slower cold frontal passage and more sun. The other models including the EPS mean were cooler with more clouds and storms. The OP Euro matches past experience. So if the cooler models in the low 90s are right, then it would be a first for our area in mid-June. Looks much cooler behind the front for the weekend.

Getting some weakening of the La Niña following the record strength in the spring.

Classic MCS possible derecho track ESE from the Great Lakes to our south tonight into tomorrow.

Rainfall amounts are usually quite variable when we rely on convection this time of year. Some parts of the region have had a good soaking. Other spots have found ways to miss out on the best rainfall. Monthly Data for June 2022 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 3.69 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 3.59 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 3.00 NY SYOSSET COOP 2.77 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 2.69 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 2.52 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 2.45 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 2.42 Monthly Data for June 2022 for Mount Holly NJ NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation PA CANADENSIS EAST COOP 4.77 NJ SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 4.32 PA PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 3.81 PA MOUNT POCONO POCONO MOUNTAINS MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 3.68 NJ PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 3.61 NJ MOUNT OLIVE TWP 0.6 W CoCoRaHS 3.56 NJ CHESTER TWP 0.6 ENE CoCoRaHS 3.50

The 80° day records at Newark since the super El Niño have been more impressive than the 90° day records. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 80 Missing Count 1 2015 118 0 2 2021 116 0 3 1994 114 0 4 2016 113 0 - 1993 113 0 - 1991 113 0 5 2011 111 0 - 2010 111 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 54 0 2 1993 49 0 3 1988 43 0 4 2021 41 0 - 2002 41 0 - 1991 41 0 5 2016 40 0 - 1983 40 0 - 1959 40 0 First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First Value Last Value Difference 2018 02-21 (2018) 80 10-11 (2018) 81 231 2016 03-09 (2016) 82 10-19 (2016) 87 223 1990 03-13 (1990) 86 10-14 (1990) 83 214 1945 03-16 (1945) 81 10-19 (1945) 82 216 2011 03-18 (2011) 80 10-10 (2011) 85 205 First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First Value Last Value Difference 2010 04-07 (2010) 92 09-25 (2010) 90 170 1977 04-12 (1977) 90 09-02 (1977) 93 142 2002 04-16 (2002) 92 09-09 (2002) 91 145 1976 04-18 (1976) 93 08-23 (1976) 90 126 1941 04-20 (1941) 91 10-06 (1941) 90 168

First no 90s while having 9 or more days reach 80° from June 1st to 11th. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Max Temperature >= 80 Jun 1 to Jun 11 Maximum Temperature 1 2022-06-11 10 87 - 1967-06-11 10 91 2 2020-06-11 9 91 - 1995-06-11 9 91 - 1994-06-11 9 92 - 1992-06-11 9 90 - 1973-06-11 9 95 - 1962-06-11 9 91 - 1961-06-11 9 90 - 1959-06-11 9 95 - 1952-06-11 9 90 - 1933-06-11 9 99