bluewave

It’s difficult to get more than a trace of snow during a La. Nina November in NYC. La Niña years bolded Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Nov Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Total Snowfall Missing Count 2020 0.0 0 2019 0.0 0 2018 6.4 0 2017 T 0 2016 T 0 2015 0.0 0 2014 0.2 0 2013 T 0 2012 4.7 0 2011 0.0 0 2010 T 0 2009 0.0 0 2008 T 0 2007 T 0 2006 0.0 0 2005 T 0 2004 T 0 2003 0.0 0 2002 T 0 2001 0.0 0 2000 0.0 0

Looks like an impressive soaking next few weeks possibly down to Central California.

Record blocking over Eastern Canada has kept things dry this month.

The Euro weekly forecasts for the next month are usually more reliable a few days before the new month starts. It did exhibit a cold bias for October compared to the actual temperatures. But the pattern of the warmest departures near the Great Lakes worked out very well.

Yeah, that raging Pacific Jet will bring plenty of moisture to the West Coast in late October.

You know the Pacific Jet is on steroids when we get a record October low around 955-960 mb west of Washington and Oregon.

While it’s outside the weeklies best range, they do start November warmer than average in the Northeast.

At or very close to our warmest fall on record so far. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 18 Missing Count 1 2021-10-18 70.4 0 2 2005-10-18 69.6 0 - 1961-10-18 69.6 0 3 2017-10-18 69.1 0 4 1959-10-18 69.0 0 5 2007-10-18 68.8 0 6 1990-10-18 68.7 0 7 2018-10-18 68.5 0 - 1971-10-18 68.5 0 8 2011-10-18 68.0 0 - 1973-10-18 68.0 0 9 1983-10-18 67.9 0 10 2016-10-18 67.8 0 - 2015-10-18 67.8 0 - 1968-10-18 67.8 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 18 Missing Count 1 2007-10-18 71.2 0 - 2005-10-18 71.2 0 2 2021-10-18 70.7 0 3 2018-10-18 70.2 0 4 2016-10-18 70.0 0 5 2017-10-18 69.9 0 6 1959-10-18 69.8 0 7 1961-10-18 69.2 0 8 1990-10-18 69.0 0 9 2015-10-18 68.6 0 - 1941-10-18 68.6 0 10 2019-10-18 68.4 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 18 Missing Count 1 1971-10-18 68.9 0 2 2021-10-18 68.7 0 - 1961-10-18 68.7 0 - 1959-10-18 68.7 0 3 2017-10-18 68.6 0 - 2005-10-18 68.6 0 4 1983-10-18 68.4 0 5 2018-10-18 68.1 0 6 2015-10-18 67.9 0 7 2007-10-18 67.7 0 8 2016-10-18 67.2 0 9 2014-10-18 67.0 0 - 2011-10-18 67.0 0 - 1990-10-18 67.0 0 10 1970-10-18 66.8 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 18 Missing Count 1 2021-10-18 67.4 0 2 2005-10-18 67.3 0 3 2017-10-18 67.1 0 4 2018-10-18 67.0 0 5 1990-10-18 66.4 0 6 2011-10-18 66.1 0 7 1980-10-18 66.0 0 8 2007-10-18 65.8 0 9 2015-10-18 65.5 0 10 1983-10-18 65.4 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 18 Missing Count 1 2021-10-18 67.4 0 2 2017-10-18 67.2 0 3 2005-10-18 67.0 0 4 2018-10-18 66.9 0 5 2011-10-18 66.8 0 6 2016-10-18 66.6 0 7 1959-10-18 66.3 0 8 2007-10-18 66.1 0 - 1961-10-18 66.1 0 9 1971-10-18 65.9 0 10 2015-10-18 65.8 0

POU finally got down to 38°. 10-19 was the latest first 30s by 4 days. The 2010s average first 30s is 9-27. So this is more than a month later than the 1951-1980 average of 9-17. https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/timeseries.php?sid=KPOU&num=72&banner=gmap&raw=0&w=325 First/Last Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference 1939 05-19 (1939) 39 10-15 (1939) 32 148 2018 05-01 (2018) 38 10-13 (2018) 38 164 1931 05-04 (1931) 34 10-11 (1931) 39 159 2015 05-14 (2015) 35 10-10 (2015) 39 148 2002 05-23 (2002) 36 10-08 (2002) 36 137 2011 05-08 (2011) 38 10-06 (2011) 36 150

Lake effect rocket fuel once it gets cold enough for snow around the Great Lakes.

EPS weeklies keep the perma-ridge firmly planted over Eastern Canada for the rest of October. So generally near to above normal temperatures. But we could see some slightly cooler days mixed in. Still no big -10 departure days showing up as mild Pacific air will dominate with the strong -PNA +EPO. Oct 18-25 Oct 25-31

The milder south based blocking has been persistent since last December. 10-01 to 10-16…21 12-01-20 to 10-16-21

Newark finally made it to 49°. This was the latest first 40s of the season by 5 days. The other records were in the last few years with the delayed falls. Boston is getting close at 50° to their latest 40s. NYC made 2nd latest. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference 2018 05-01 (2018) 44 10-13 (2018) 47 164 1973 05-19 (1973) 42 10-11 (1973) 49 144 2016 05-16 (2016) 40 10-10 (2016) 47 146 2002 05-23 (2002) 45 10-09 (2002) 48 138 2014 05-07 (2014) 47 10-05 (2014) 44 150 1988 05-12 (1988) 48 10-05 (1988) 48 145 1964 06-04 (1964) 48 10-05 (1964) 46 122

Yeah, February 2015 was our only top 10 coldest winter month since 2010. But there have been 9 top 10 warmest winter months since 2010. Funny how the 14° warmer February 2016 went below 0° but 2015 couldn’t.

Yeah, these delayed falls have become very common over the last 20 years. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 15 Missing Count 1 2021-10-15 71.0 0 2 1961-10-15 70.6 0 3 2005-10-15 70.2 0 4 1959-10-15 70.0 0 5 2017-10-15 69.9 0 6 2018-10-15 69.7 0 7 1990-10-15 69.1 0 8 2015-10-15 69.0 0 - 2007-10-15 69.0 0 - 1973-10-15 69.0 0 - 1971-10-15 69.0 0 9 1983-10-15 68.7 0 10 1970-10-15 68.6 0 11 2011-10-15 68.4 0 12 2019-10-15 68.2 0 - 1931-10-15 68.2 0 13 2016-10-15 67.8 0 - 2002-10-15 67.8 0 14 1995-10-15 67.7 0 - 1968-10-15 67.7 0 15 2010-10-15 67.6 0

Yeah, the only 70s winter that had impressive snowstorms by recent standards was 77-78. The 70s was the last time we saw a top 10 coldest winter in our area. Now its frequent top 10 or top 20 warmest winters. Warmest winters NY climate division 4 200112 - 200202 39.3°F 126 5.8°F 201512 - 201602 39.3°F 126 5.8°F 201112 - 201202 38.7°F 124 5.2°F 201612 - 201702 37.8°F 123 4.3°F 193112 - 193202 37.7°F 122 4.2°F 199712 - 199802 37.7°F 122 4.2°F 201912 - 202002 37.6°F 120 4.1°F 199012 - 199102 36.5°F 119 3.0°F 199812 - 199902 36.4°F 118 2.9°F 193612 - 193702 36.3°F 117 2.8°F 199612 - 199702 36.1°F 116 2.6°F 194812 - 194902 35.9°F 115 2.4°F 195212 - 195302 35.8°F 114 2.3°F 201212 - 201302 35.8°F 114 2.3°F 193212 - 193302 35.6°F 112 2.1°F 200512 - 200602 35.5°F 111 2.0°F 199412 - 199502 35.4°F 110 1.9°F 198212 - 198302 35.3°F 109 1.8°F 200612 - 200702 35.3°F 109 1.8°F 197412 - 197502 35.2°F 107 1.7°F 195312 - 195402 35.1°F 106 1.6°F Coldest winters 191712 - 191802 23.4°F 1 -10.1°F 190312 - 190402 24.2°F 2 -9.3°F 190412 - 190502 24.3°F 3 -9.2°F 191912 - 192002 25.4°F 4 -8.1°F 193512 - 193602 26.8°F 5 -6.7°F 193312 - 193402 27.0°F 6 -6.5°F 197612 - 197702 27.3°F 7 -6.2°F 190612 - 190702 27.4°F 8 -6.1°F 194712 - 194802 27.4°F 8 -6.1°F 192212 - 192302 27.8°F 10 -5.7°F 191112 - 191202 28.1°F 11 -5.4°F 196212 - 196302 28.1°F 11 -5.4°F 197712 - 197802 28.2°F 13 -5.3°F 190012 - 190102 28.4°F 14 -5.1°F 189812 - 189902 28.5°F 15 -5.0°F 194412 - 194502 28.5°F 15 -5.0°F 195812 - 195902 28.5°F 15 -5.0°F 190112 - 190202 28.6°F 18 -4.9°F 193912 - 194002 28.7°F 19 -4.8°F 191012 - 191102 28.8°F 20 -4.7°F 196012 - 196102 28.8°F 20 -4.7°F 196912 - 197002 29.0°F 22 -4.5°F 191612 - 191702 29.2°F 23 -4.3°F 199312 - 199402 29.2°F 23 -4.3°F 190912 - 191002 29.4°F 25 -4.1°F 189612 - 189702 29.5°F 26 -4.0°F 193412 - 193502 29.6°F 27 -3.9°F

Every snowfall season since 09-10 has had at least 1 top 10 snowiest month at one of our stations. This was also true for the disappointing 11-12, 18-19, and 19-20 seasons. October 2011 was the snowiest on record in NYC. November 2018 was 4th snowiest in NYC. May 2020 tied for snowiest with 1977 for the record late trace around the area.

Yeah, last winter was the strongest -AO that was south based. So it was the warmest on record for such a low -AO reading. You can see the -AO pressing further south into the Northeast over time.

The Meteo-France seasonal shows what could happen with a strong -PDO and record warm pool east of New England. It has a -PNA and south based-AO/ -NAO to start winter. Warmer than average temperatures but hopefully some snow opportunities if the early blocking verifies. https://climate.copernicus.eu/seasonal-forecasts

Gulf of Maine SSTs are the warmest on record for mid-October. https://mco.umaine.edu/gom_sst/

Yeah, one of the most perfect October La Niña 500 mb patterns that we have ever seen.

You know that the cold air will be very limited in North America with 5 sigma jet maxes in the Pacific.

This could be our second year in a row with the coldest departures of the year in May. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=32&network=NYCLIMATE&station=NYC004&year=2021&var=avg&gddbase=50&gddceil=86&how=diff&cmap=jet&dpi=100&_fmt=png

This is another delayed fall. A top 3 warmest first half of fall around the area. Notice how many top 10s in the last several years. Even parts of Long Island averaged close to 70°. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 15 Missing Count 1 2021-10-15 71.0 0 2 1961-10-15 70.6 0 3 2005-10-15 70.2 0 4 1959-10-15 70.0 0 5 2017-10-15 69.9 0 6 2018-10-15 69.7 0 7 1990-10-15 69.1 0 8 2015-10-15 69.0 0 - 2007-10-15 69.0 0 - 1973-10-15 69.0 0 - 1971-10-15 69.0 0 9 1983-10-15 68.7 0 10 1970-10-15 68.6 0 Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 15 Missing Count 1 2005-10-15 69.0 1 2 2021-10-15 68.5 0 3 2018-10-15 68.0 0 - 2017-10-15 68.0 0 4 2015-10-15 67.8 0 5 2016-10-15 67.6 5 6 2007-10-15 66.5 0 7 2002-10-15 66.0 0 8 2011-10-15 65.7 0 - 2010-10-15 65.7 0 9 2020-10-15 65.6 2 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Oct 15 Missing Count 1 2018-10-15 68.1 0 2 2005-10-15 68.0 0 3 2021-10-15 67.9 0 - 2017-10-15 67.9 0 4 1990-10-15 66.8 0 5 2015-10-15 66.6 0 6 2011-10-15 66.4 0 7 2007-10-15 66.2 0 - 1983-10-15 66.2 0 8 1980-10-15 66.0 0 9 1971-10-15 65.6 0 10 1998-10-15 65.3 0