bluewave

Last June was a tough act to follow for Newark. It was the 2nd warmest on record. This year Newark is currently in 14th place. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1994 77.8 0 2 2021 76.2 0 - 2010 76.2 0 3 1993 75.8 0 4 1943 75.4 0 5 2008 75.3 0 6 1984 75.0 0 7 1971 74.8 0 8 2005 74.6 0 - 1981 74.6 0 - 1973 74.6 0 9 2011 74.5 0 10 2020 74.4 0 - 1987 74.4 0 11 1989 74.3 0 12 1999 74.2 0 13 1991 74.1 0 14 2022 74.0 3 15 2001 73.9 0 16 1966 73.8 0 - 1957 73.8 0 17 1949 73.7 0 18 1976 73.6 0 19 1983 73.5 0 20 1990 73.4 0 - 1952 73.4 0

I started the July thread to discuss the extended holiday weekend.

Major heat to start to July with mid to upper 90s possible in the usual warm spots on the 1st. Heat continues into Saturday with a cold front Saturday afternoon or at night with strong to possibly severe storms. We probably clear out by Monday for a dry 4th with high pressure building down from the Great Lakes.

You can see the onshore flow this month with the high near the Canadian Maritimes keeping the areas east of NYC cooler.

We live in a part to the country where there can be quite a bit of variability between station temperature departures. Our climate zones range from the coastal plain with sea breezes to hills and small mountains. So there is usually at least one station that can vary more than others. Sometimes we get summers like 2010 with a more uniform distribution of departures. But other years the warmest departures will line up either east or west of NYC.

Those maps don’t have high enough resolution for each individual station like Newark to show up. They are used as a broad analysis as to where the warmer and cooler departures are located. You have to look at the actual station departures for exact departures. Kind of like the snowfall maps during the winter. So Newark having a warmer departure than other stations doesn’t mean there is an issue with the sensor. You have to remember that Newark is long term climate site. The nearby Harrison COOP only has observations back to 2000. So it’s not using the full 1991-2020 Climatology period. Stations can always vary from other stations. Newark was the coldest station in January at -4.2 while NYC was -3.4…LGA…-2.7…JFK…-2.5…HPN…-3.4…ISP…-3.1

Newark is similar to much of NJ south of the I-78 corridor with the warm departures this month. There is plenty of concrete around LGA and they have a colder than average departure. The warmest part of the region has been near Bradford, PA at +2.9° which is more rural. So just a combination of local and regional effects with the omega block. Newark can heat up very quickly with a warm downslope flow. LGA has had quite a bit of onshore flow influence. Bradford, PA is closer to the ridge axis.

The warmest departures were limited to NJ this month with the ridge axis to our west and blocking to our north. ISP……+0.1 LGA….-1.1 JFK….+0.2 NYC….-0.6 BDR….-0.5 HPN…..-0.2 POU….-0.8 EWR….+1.8 PHL…..+1.0

First time that MSP reached 100° in June with Newark staying under 100° since 1985. Time Series Summary for Minneapolis-St Paul Area, MN (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Newark 1 1934 104 100 2 2011 103 102 3 1985 102 89 - 1931 102 96 4 2022 101 96 - 1988 101 101 5 1956 100 99 - 1933 100 99

Toledo, Ohio had a record high of 100° this week. So far Newark only has a June monthly high of 96°. This is the coolest on record for all the 100° June years in Toledo. Most years Newark also made it to 100° in June. So this is an unusually amplified omega blocking pattern for this time of year. Time Series Summary for Toledo Area, OH (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Newark Highest Max Temperature 1 1988 104 101 2 2012 103 99 3 1934 101 100 4 2022 100 96 - 1952 100 102

It’s interesting how LGA has been more an extension of the cooler trough in New England this month. While EWR has been more in line with the heat just our SW in the Mid-Atlantic. So Manhattan has been the dividing line between the 2 regional patterns this month. This summer is starting out with EWR having warmer temperature departures than LGA. We saw a pattern like this last summer. It’s a reversal from LGA having the higher departures from 2018 to 2020. So our stations are very sensitive to prevailing wind directions since they are located so close to the Atlantic and LI Sound. JJA 2022 so far EWR…+1.5 LGA….-1.3 JJA 2021 EWR…+2.5 LGA…..+0.7 JJA….2020 EWR….+2.4 LGA…..+4.2 JJA….2019 EWR….+1.3 LGA…..+2.0 JJA……2018 EWR….+1.3 LGA……+2.6

Newark is on track for another 95°+ high temperature today. So Newark currently has 5 days of 95°+. This is the 2nd highest on record by June 25th. But this is the first of the years with no heatwave by June 25th. The first heatwave could finally arrive between June 30th and July 2nd if the Euro is correct. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Jan 1 to Jun 25 First Heatwave 1 1988-06-25 6 6-12 to 6-16 - 1984-06-25 6 6-7 to 6-11 2 2022-06-25 5 0 - 2021-06-25 5 6-5 to 6-9 - 1994-06-25 5 6-17 to 6-19 - 1987-06-25 5 5-29 to 6-1 - 1945-06-25 5 6-14 to 6-18

The cooler subtropical Atlantic and lack of a SE Ridge this month is a shift from the persistent La Niña background state at least on the Atlantic side.

MPO was the big rainfall winner coming in at the 16th wettest June so far. Time Series Summary for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2006 12.10 0 2 1928 11.16 0 3 1972 10.14 0 4 2003 9.63 0 5 1973 9.41 0 6 1916 9.26 0 7 2013 9.19 0 8 2015 8.77 0 9 1922 8.73 0 10 1917 8.61 0 11 1941 8.02 0 12 2009 7.78 0 13 1932 7.08 0 14 1903 7.03 0 15 1925 7.02 0 16 2022 6.98 6 17 1948 6.55 0 18 1906 6.49 0 19 1989 6.38 0 20 1904 6.31 0

This may be the first time that two consecutive Junes had a completely opposite 500 mb pattern. Notice the NW and NE troughs this year where the ridges were last year. The ridges in the Plains and Hudson Bay replaced the troughs from last June.

This month was a return to the New England trough pattern which has been absent for so long.

The persistent low pressure to our east has really cooled off the SSTs in the Western Atlantic. Much cooler SSTs than at the same time last year. The area is actually below normal for a change. So we get these brief warm ups followed by the trough returning to New England.

This weekend looks to follow the same 2 days of 90s theme before the next cool down.

Almost looks like a PRE. But with a cutoff low instead of a tropical system to our south.

I haven’t been able to find another June with such a strong ridge in the Plains and near Hudson Bay. My guess is that Matt Hugo is correct about the May +AAM spike and lingering blocking influence. So we get the stronger Hudson Bay blocking running with the La Niña background state of heat and drought in the Plains. Almost looks like the +AAM blocking influence got delayed for several weeks and waited to show up in June.

Texas is one of the warmest parts of the country this month. DFW is having a top 10 warmest June. So it makes sense with a very strong ridge in the Plains. But the near record block just north of Hudson Bay typically doesn’t go with this type of pattern. So this is why the 100° heat near the Great Lakes has stayed to our west which is unusual. The other out of place feature is the deep trough near the Pacific Northwest. Much stronger blocking this June for DFW top 10 warmest composite 2022 vs composite

Another extreme with this highly amplified Omega Block.

Getting the heaviest downpour of the whole storm now in SW Suffolk. The NYC crew is happy that this isn’t a snow event.

Toledo ,Ohio had a record high of 100° yesterday. So far Newark only has a June monthly high of 95°. This is the coolest on record for all the 100° June years in Toledo. Most years Newark also made it to 100° in June. So this is an unusually amplified omega blocking pattern for this time of year. Time Series Summary for Toledo Area, OH (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Newark Highest Max Temperature 1 1988 104 101 2 2012 103 99 3 1934 101 100 4 2022 100 95 - 1952 100 102 RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND, OH 0617 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2022 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT TOLEDO OH... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 100 WAS SET AT TOLEDO OH TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 100 SET IN 1988.

First guess for July 4th weekend is for frontloaded warmth. EPS is warmest on Friday. Then a cold front with storms on Saturday. Cooler and hopefully drier for Sunday into Monday as Canadian high pressure builds into Northern New England.