bluewave

The persistent blocking pattern temporarily cooled off the Western Atlantic mid-latitude SSTs with the strong 50/50 low replacing the WAR and SE Ridge.

Unless we get an organized tropical system, convection is usually hit or miss this time of year. Monthly Data for June 2022 for New Jersey Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Precipitation PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 5.85 TOMS RIVER TWP 3.1 SSE CoCoRaHS 5.77 MOUNT OLIVE TWP 0.6 W CoCoRaHS 5.75 CHESTER TWP 0.6 ENE CoCoRaHS 5.46 MOORESTOWN TWP 0.6 SE CoCoRaHS 5.23 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 5.22 ROXBURY TWP 1.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 5.18 SOUTHAMPTON TWP 1.6 SE CoCoRaHS 5.09 MANSFIELD TWP 1.9 SW CoCoRaHS 5.00 Monthly Data for June 2022 for New Jersey Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Precipitation EAST WINDSOR TWP 1.6 W CoCoRaHS 0.00 PRINCETON 0.7 ESE CoCoRaHS T MIDDLE TWP 0.8 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.17 PRINCETON 1.7 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.41 MAURICE RIVER TWP 5.3 S CoCoRaHS 0.47 READINGTON TWP 1.8 ENE CoCoRaHS 0.55 HILLSBOROUGH TWP 2.6 ESE CoCoRaHS 0.68 FLEMINGTON 1.9 SE CoCoRaHS 0.69 OCEAN CITY 1.6 SW CoCoRaHS 0.71 MIDDLE TWP 3.3 NNW CoCoRaHS 0.73 LINWOOD 0.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 0.75 MIDDLE TWP 4.2 NNW CoCoRaHS 0.80 MAYS LANDING 1 W COOP 0.82 WILDWOOD CREST 0.1 WSW CoCoRaHS 0.83 OCEAN CITY COOP 0.97

After EWR set the June all-rime record of 103° last year, the monthly max of 95° this June felt much cooler. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 103 0 2 2011 102 0 - 1994 102 0 - 1993 102 0 - 1952 102 0 - 1943 102 0 3 1988 101 0 - 1966 101 0 4 1959 100 0 - 1953 100 0 - 1934 100 0

The seasonal models are often low skill especially for the winter. Long range MJO and SPV forecasts get really difficult beyond week 2 during the winter. But the seasonal models seem to have better skill during the summer some years. While I don’t usually look at the CFS, the big IOD reversal it’s forecasting for next winter would be fun. The forcing shifts from the Maritime Continent to west of the Dateline in the WPAC. While the forecast may be completely wrong, forcing west of dateline would support at least a strong -EPO +PNA like we had in January. The state of the AO and NAO usually is unknown until the winter actually starts. Is Maritime Continent cooling and WPAC warming next winter fact or fiction? Current Winter forecast

Really unusual for the jet to be blowing this strong out of the north this time of year. It’s near a record according to the NEEFS. So this is why the convection is dropping SSE out of Canada.

The blocking started with the final stratospheric warming in late March. Sometimes once blocking becomes established, it just keeps going. But the strength of this blocking is unusual for June. Notice how strong the blocking is this month NE of Hudson Bay. So it will be interesting to see how long it can persist. Blocking since March 25th Blocking since June 1st

This is a different type of June pattern than we have seen in recent years. The heat ridges to our west have usually come east. This June we have the strong blocking pushing back against the heat dome. Most years the blocking is too weak in the summer to challenge the ridge to our west. So it will be interesting to see if the CFS is correct about the blocking continuing into next winter.

This is one of the strongest Omega Blocks that we have seen in June. https://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/144/

The extended EPS for the start of July looks similar to the July forecast issued on June 5th. Rockies ridge with another ridge east of New England. If this pattern verifies, then the strongest heat in July relative to the means will be to our west. July Euro forecast issued on June 5th

The stationary front will serve as a focus for the convection this week. So a continuation of the wet June pattern for parts of the region. Several spots are already in excess of 4-5”. Monthly Data for June 2022 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NY ELMSFORD 0.8 SSW CoCoRaHS 5.32 NJ HAWTHORNE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 4.32 NJ TENAFLY 1.3 W CoCoRaHS 4.29 NJ WEST MILFORD TWP 2.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 4.29 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 4.28 NJ RIVER EDGE 0.4 NNE CoCoRaHS 4.25 CT TRUMBULL 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 4.20 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 4.19 CT NORWALK 2.9 NNW CoCoRaHS 4.18 NJ GLEN ROCK 0.7 SSE CoCoRaHS 4.17 NJ GLEN ROCK 0.4 WNW CoCoRaHS 4.14 Monthly Data for June 2022 for Mount Holly NJ NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NJ PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 5.85 NJ TOMS RIVER TWP 3.1 SSE CoCoRaHS 5.77 PA MOUNT POCONO 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 5.63 NJ CHESTER TWP 0.6 ENE CoCoRaHS 5.46 NJ MOORESTOWN TWP 0.6 SE CoCoRaHS 5.23 NJ SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 5.22 PA JIM THORPE 1.1 NNE CoCoRaHS 5.20 NJ ROXBURY TWP 1.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 5.18 PA CANADENSIS EAST COOP 5.16 NJ MOUNT OLIVE TWP 0.6 W CoCoRaHS 5.16 NJ SOUTHAMPTON TWP 1.6 SE CoCoRaHS 5.09 NJ MANSFIELD TWP 1.9 SW CoCoRaHS 5.00

It’s pretty rare to tie a record high and low only a few days apart. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND, OH 0535 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2022 A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 94 WAS SET AT AKRON CANTON OH TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 94 SET IN 1925. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND, OH 835 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2022 ...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TIED AT AKRON-CANTON AT 607 AM EDT, AKRON-CANTON REGIONAL AIRPORT REACHED A MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 46 DEGREES. THIS TIES THE DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD PREVIOUSLY SET IN 1947.

It looks like the 95° last week at Newark has a good chance of being the warmest high of the month. This is a continuation of past years when Newark reached 98°or warmer in May. All the June maximum temperatures in those years were lower.The May high temperature was actually the warmest of the entire season. But that was in a cooler climate era. So it will be interesting to see what the maximum temperature is this year. Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year May Jun Jul Aug Sep Season 1996 99 92 91 92 92 99 2022 98 95 M M M 98 1992 98 90 97 95 90 98 1987 98 96 97 97 87 98 1962 98 94 96 93 87 98

The big question this week is where will the stationary front and training convection set up? Every model has a different location. So low skill forecast for any given location from Tuesday into Thursday.

A winter with near or below freezing temperatures and 50”+ of snow is getting more challenging for NYC. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 DJF Temperature 1 1996-04-30 75.6 32.2 2 1948-04-30 63.9 30.0 3 2011-04-30 61.9 32.8 4 1923-04-30 60.4 29.9 5 1873-04-30 60.2 27.7 6 2014-04-30 57.4 32.9 7 1875-04-30 56.4 27.7 8 1899-04-30 55.9 31.5 9 1961-04-30 54.7 31.7 10 1994-04-30 53.4 31.1 11 1907-04-30 53.2 31.1 12 1934-04-30 52.0 29.1 13 1967-04-30 51.5 34.1 14 2010-04-30 51.4 33.8 15 1978-04-30 50.7 30.3 - 1917-04-30 50.7 31.7 - 1916-04-30 50.7 32.4 16 2015-04-30 50.3 31.4 17 1893-04-30 49.4 28.6 18 2003-04-30 49.3 31.2

It would be great if some of this June blocking carried over to next winter like it did in 09-10. The west based block at 500 mb is more impressive this June than in 2009. But the ENSO state with the La Niña is much different this year. So even a fraction of that 09-10 winter blocking would be nice to see. That 09-10 winter was part of the big 3 El Niño modoki winters. The rare combo of a cold NYC winter with near 50”+ of snow in 02-03, 09-10, and 14-15.

Relative to the means, Christmas has been running much warmer than July 4th since 2014. Data for December 25 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Precipitation Snowfall Snow Depth 1964-12-25 69 44 0.01 0.0 0 1982-12-25 68 40 0.02 0.0 0 2014-12-25 64 41 0.10 0.0 0 2015-12-25 63 54 0.03 0.0 0 2020-12-25 62 28 0.66 0.0 0 1940-12-25 61 32 0.00 0.0 0 1994-12-25 60 41 T 0.0 0 1979-12-25 59 47 0.37 0.0 0 1965-12-25 59 40 0.85 0.0 0 1936-12-25 57 36 0.00 0.0 0 2021-12-25 55 38 0.16 0.0 0 2008-12-25 55 33 0.11 0.0 0 1933-12-25 54 30 0.00 0.0 M 1932-12-25 54 43 0.16 0.0 M 1931-12-25 53 31 0.00 0.0 M 2016-12-25 52 34 0.00 0.0 0 Data for July 4 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Precipitation Snowfall Snow Depth 1949-07-04 105 74 0.08 0.0 0 2010-07-04 101 67 0.00 0.0 0 2002-07-04 100 81 0.00 0.0 0 1966-07-04 100 78 0.00 0.0 0 1999-07-04 99 79 T 0.0 0 2012-07-04 97 73 0.05 0.0 0 1993-07-04 97 74 0.00 0.0 0 1990-07-04 97 71 0.00 0.0 0 1955-07-04 97 73 0.00 0.0 0 1983-07-04 96 79 0.00 0.0 0 1974-07-04 95 76 0.00 0.0 0 1957-07-04 95 70 T 0.0 0 2003-07-04 94 67 0.00 0.0 0 2011-07-04 92 71 0.00 0.0 0 2013-07-04 91 76 0.00 0.0 0 1952-07-04 91 67 1.07 0.0 0 1987-07-04 90 73 0.00 0.0 0 1984-07-04 90 70 T 0.0 0 1977-07-04 90 66 0.00 0.0 0 1965-07-04 90 65 0.00 0.0 0 1948-07-04 90 65 0.00 0.0 0

First model guess for the July 4th weekend is a continuation of the June pattern. The heat ridge remains to our west. Some hint of the trough holding on near New England.

First time that LGA tied or set a record low in late June since the 1990s. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 544 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2022 ...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE TIED AT LAGUARDIA NY... A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 56 WAS TIED AT LAGUARDIA NY TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 56 SET IN 1958. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED IF A LOWER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED. ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI). 6/19 56 in 2022 56 in 1958 57 in 1959 6/20 55 in 1959 56 in 1940 57 in 1956 6/21 53 in 1940 55 in 1968 56 in 1970+ 6/22 53 in 1992 54 in 1940 57 in 1963 6/23 53 in 1940 54 in 1992 54 in 1972 6/24 53 in 1947 55 in 1972 56 in 1940 6/25 55 in 1940 56 in 1979 57 in 1974+ 6/26 56 in 1985 56 in 1979 56 in 1974 6/27 56 in 1972 56 in 1940 57 in 1985 6/28 55 in 1995 56 in 1970 57 in 1940 6/29 59 in 1995 60 in 1983 60 in 1970+ 6/30 57 in 1996 58 in 1988 60 in 1940

This was one of the greatest temperature drops on record for JFK in late June. The chart below only uses hourly temperatures. So add another degree since the high at JFK was 94° between hours. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&hours=39&month=jun&dir=cool&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

If NYC can drop below 55° Sunday morning, then it would be the first time this late in the season between 6-19 and 6-30 since 1995. Latest lows under 55° in NYC since 1950 First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference 1963 07-09 (1963) 54 08-25 (1963) 53 46 1979 07-06 (1979) 54 09-19 (1979) 53 74 1988 07-01 (1988) 53 09-06 (1988) 50 66 1995 06-28 (1995) 54 09-11 (1995) 53 74 1992 06-23 (1992) 52 09-13 (1992) 52 81 1968 06-21 (1968) 53 09-29 (1968) 53 99 1986 06-18 (1986) 54 08-28 (1986) 52 70 1959 06-18 (1959) 53 09-16 (1959) 52 89 1950 06-18 (1950) 48 09-05 (1950) 54 78

Gust fronts ahead of squall lines can be interesting along the South Shore. I can remember a summer day in Long Beach with a strong sea breeze and temperatures in the low 80s. The outflow from a squall line rapidly shifted the winds to offshore. The temperature jumped from 83° to 96° in about 3 minutes. It had been in the upper 90s most of the day away from the sea breeze around NYC.

The GEPS has a middle ground between the GEFS and EPS. The high east of New England late next week becomes the Bermuda high a few days later. So the SSE flow becomes more SW and gives us a warm up in late June.

While we get the more linked up look, energy is trying to sneak underneath. So we get more onshore flow with high pressure east of New England next week.

Pretty unusual for Newark not to get above 95°on Friday or set a record high with record heat to our west this past week. Notice how much warmer Newark was in the past when Toledo, Ohio had record heat in mid-June. So strong blocking combining with with a heat dome is different from typical June climo. Same years bolded at Newark when Toledo had a record high Toledo Area, OHPeriod of record: 1873-03-01 through 2022-06-17 6/12 95 in 1956 94 in 1954 93 in 1925 6/13 96 in 2017 95 in 1956 94 in 1988 6/14 96 in 1988 95 in 1956 94 in 1967 6/15 98 in 2022 96 in 1994 95 in 1988+ 6/16 99 in 1994 98 in 1952 96 in 2022 6/17 97 in 1994 97 in 1957 95 in 2018+ 6/18 98 in 1994 97 in 1944 96 in 2018 Newark Area, NJPeriod of record: 1931-01-01 through 2022-06-17 6/12 97 in 2017 95 in 1973 94 in 1949 6/13 99 in 2017 98 in 1961 96 in 1984 6/14 99 in 1988 99 in 1956 98 in 1994 6/15 101 in 1994 99 in 1988 99 in 1945 6/16 98 in 1981 97 in 1991 96 in 1988 6/17 98 in 1952 97 in 1957 97 in 1945 6/18 97 in 1993 97 in 1945 96 in 2018+ RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND, OH 0535 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2022 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SET AT TOLEDO OH A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 98 WAS SET AT TOLEDO OH TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 96 SET IN 1994. CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 224 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2022 ................................... ...THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JUNE 17 2022... CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1931 TO 2022 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 95 314 PM 98 1952

First time that Newark had 4 days of 95+ by June 17th without a official heatwave of 3 consecutive 90° days. So an usual battle between the heat ridge to our west and blocking to our north and east. We get these big weather swings between scattered 90°+ days and cool downs like this weekend. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Jan 1 to Jun 17 First Heatwave 1 1984-06-17 6 6-7 to 6-11 2 2021-06-17 5 6-5 to 6-9 3 2008-06-17 4 6-7 to 6-10 - 1988-06-17 4 6-12 to 6-16 - 1987-06-17 4 5-29 to 6-1 - 1945-06-17 4 6-14 to 6-18 2022-06-17 4 ?