bluewave

The 12z HRRR rakes the MCS to our south closer to the better instability.

An early June statistical model forecast for the average September Arctic sea ice extent came in at 4.5 million sq km.

Summer starting out with the warmest departures west of the Hudson. EWR….+3.5 PHL….+2.8 NYC….+1.1 LGA…..+0.6 JFK…..+1.4 HPN….+1.3 ISP…….+1.7 BDR…..+1.2

Yeah, the Euro has near record 850s of +24C + in Chicago and around +18C for us next Friday. But the GFS and Euro both have clouds and convection here. The ridge on both models looks a little narrower than we typically get with a 594dm heat dome to our west. When Chicago has gone 94°+ around June 14-15th in the past, Newark has recorded near to record highs from 95° to 102°. But the Euro and GFS have enough clouds and convection to keep Newark below those levels. So we’ll see how things go later next week here with regard to the clouds and convection. Past years with near to record Chicago heat June 13th to 14th. Newark highs for June 13-21 in those years 2012….99° 1994….102° 1991…..97° 1988….99° 1987….96° 1954….95° 1952….98°

If we only make it to the low 90s like the GFS has later next week, it would be well below the mid to upper 90s forecast near the Great Lakes.

Yeah, it’s rare for mid to upper 90s around the Great Lakes not to make it here in June.

The heavy thunderstorms this morning caused an unusually large temperature error even by NYC standards. The wet vegetation growing over the sensors combined with the deep shade for one of the biggest temperature spreads of the season. Probably water dripping onto the thermometer combined with strong transpiration cooling the temperature under the trees. EWR….87° LGA…..85° NYC….81° JFK….84° ISP…..86°

Impressive wind gusts in Suffolk for early morning thunderstorms this time of year.

Strong thunderstorms moving through with some severe warnings down around Monmouth.

Strongest heat remains to our west through the solstice on the 12z EPS. So we’ll probably have to wait until late June or July for our first official heatwave with 3 days or more in a row reaching 90°. Last June we had our first heatwave from the 5th to the 9th. Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2021-06-05 95 2021-06-06 97 2021-06-07 95 2021-06-08 93 2021-06-09 96

While I usually don’t look at the point and clicks, the Euro forecast from yesterday had sunny and 80s for today. 12z Euro Tuesday forecast for today

The RGEM just got a big upgrade in December 2021 while the NAM development was frozen in 2017. NAM development was frozen after the March 2017 upgrade, and RAP/HRRR development with the WRF-ARW model will cease after the RAPv5/HRRRv4 upgrade in 2020. However, operational execution of these modeling and associated DA systems will continue until comparable FV3-based systems are able to give similar performance.

Thursday looks like a repeat of a few weeks ago when the NAM tried to take the MCS north of us. All the other guidance was further south across our area. So it’s no surprise that we get a nice round of morning convection on the HRRR and RGEM. Maybe we can sneak in a few afternoon 80s with enough clearing.

Interesting how the deeper low for early Thursday is leading to a weaker storm than originally forecast for the weekend. New runs Old runs

The ENSO forecasts from the various models are indicating a continuation of the La Niña background state into the fall. But our winter sensible weather always comes down to how much blocking we get. So we’ll probably have to wait at least another year for the fabled El Niño modoki.

That’s why vendors shouldn’t be extending those operational raw GFS temperature charts beyond 5-7 days. It’s much better to use ensembles when looking at week 2 patterns. Notice how the OP GFS forecast skill falls way below the ensemble means after day 7. The other problem is that there is no bias correction for the NYC ASOS raw temperature forecasts tucked in under the dense tree growth. The raw model doesn’t know that the ASOS is in deep shade during peak heating hours. So the raw GFS forecasts are always going to be unrealistically high for NYC. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/headlines/ EPS is highest scoring long range ensemble forecast. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gefs/ops/geo/

Looks like the major heat will remain to our west the next few weeks. So very comfortable temperatures for the area. The upper 90s record heat at the end of May will remain the warmest temperatures for a while.

Latest extended EPS expands the ridge from the Rockies to the Plains this month. Has troughs near the Pacific Northwest and New England. So a different 500mb pattern than last June. Jun 6-13 Jun 13-20 Jun 21-27 Jun 2021

Same theme this month with the marine influence keeping areas east of the Hudson cooler. PHL…+4.4 EWR…+3.2 NYC….+0.4 HPN…+0.4 LGA….-0.6 JFK….-0.7 BDR….-1.2 ISP…...0.0

Yeah, 1993 was the last time that NYC had 3 days in a row reaching 100°. The new ASOS was installed in November 1995. That’s around the time that the tree growth began to block the sensors. So NYC hasn’t been able to get 3 consecutive 100° days since then due to the cool in the deep shade and the cooling influence of the leaf transpiration. https://www.nytimes.com/1993/07/11/nyregion/heat-wave-records-rewritten-as-east-bakes-and-midwest-soaks.html For the third consecutive day, temperatures in New York City exceeded 100 degrees -- something that had not happened since 1948. Just before 3 P.M. Central Park recorded 102 degrees, tying the record for the day, set in 1936. At Newark International Airport, it reached a record 105, the fourth straight day of triple-digit heat recorded there.

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. But surrounding sites were nearly as hot during the July heatwave. So it must have been a drought feedback process that allowed for so many 100°+ temperatures. Data for WAYNE, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Precipitation 1993-07-04 96 0.00 1993-07-05 0.00 1993-07-06 0.00 1993-07-07 98 0.00 1993-07-08 102 0.00 1993-07-09 102 0.00 1993-07-10 102 0.00 1993-07-11 98 T 1993-07-12 104 0.00 1993-07-13 94 0.00 1993-07-14 98 0.00 1993-07-15 94 0.12 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Precipitation 1993-07-04 97 0.00 1993-07-05 91 0.00 1993-07-06 87 0.00 1993-07-07 103 0.00 1993-07-08 105 0.00 1993-07-09 104 0.00 1993-07-10 105 0.00 1993-07-11 99 0.00 1993-07-12 97 0.00 1993-07-13 98 0.00 1993-07-14 90 0.44 1993-07-15 91 0.00 1993-07-16 91 0.00 Daily Data for July 7, 1993 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Max Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 103 CT DANBURY COOP 102 NJ LODI COOP 100 Daily Data for July 8, 1993 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Max Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 105 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 103 NJ WAYNE COOP 102 NJ LODI COOP 101 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 100 CT DANBURY COOP 100 Daily Data for July 9, 1993 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Max Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 104 NJ WAYNE COOP 102 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 101 NJ LODI COOP 101 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 101 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 100 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 100 Daily Data for July 10, 1993 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Max Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 105 CT DANBURY COOP 103 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 102 NJ LODI COOP 102 NJ WAYNE COOP 102 NY MINEOLA COOP 100 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 100 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 100

Yeah, 1993 was a very strong sea breeze summer at JFK. It briefly relaxed in early July allowing JFK to reach 100° a few times. EWR was much warmer than all the other stations with dominant SW to W flow there. 1993 EWR Jun…+3.2 Jul….+4.8 Aug…+2.8 JFK Jun….+1.1 Jul….+3.4 Aug…+0.3

JFK only had 1 heatwave lasting 5 days that summer with the two consecutive 100° days in July. All the other 90° days were brief warm ups. Newark had 5 heatwaves spread out through the whole summer. Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 90 for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Dates Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1993-01-01 to 1993-12-31 1 5 1993-07-08 through 1993-07-12 2 1 1993-09-03 through 1993-09-03 - 1 1993-09-01 through 1993-09-01 - 1 1993-08-26 through 1993-08-26 - 1 1993-08-04 through 1993-08-04 - 1 1993-07-20 through 1993-07-20 - 1 1993-07-15 through 1993-07-15 - 1 1993-07-04 through 1993-07-04 Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Dates 1 10 1993-07-07 through 1993-07-16 2 9 1993-07-27 through 1993-08-04 3 5 1993-08-25 through 1993-08-29 4 3 1993-07-23 through 1993-07-25 - 3 1993-06-24 through 1993-06-26

The Euro seasonal has a drought feedback ridge to our west this summer. Keeps a stalled out frontal zone along the East Coast. Deep tropical moisture feed through our area with plenty of rain and high dewpoints. Very active hurricane season for the Atlantic with near 20 named storms.

We have warm and cool -AO patterns. The record warmth at end of May linked up with the SE Ridge. So it was more a south based block like the winter of 2021. The record -AO has been undercut by a cooler trough in early June.