bluewave

It will be a battle of where the cutoff finally stalls out. The Euro keeps areas near the coast in an onshore flow. If the Euro is correct, then NYC and LGA may not be able to get their first 80° day yet. But we’ll have to wait for later model runs to see if the 80° over the top warmth to our NW can work down closer to NYC. We just need the Bermuda high to be a little stronger than the backdoor high to the north for the first 80° in NYC and LGA.

The NYC Central Park minimum JJA average temperature rise between 1951-1980 and 2010-2021 actually matches the other stations. So this is how we can see that the dense foliage is blocking the sun during the daytime. I included all our major weather stations in the analysis below. It’s interesting that the stations on the Long Island Sound saw the greatest minimum temperature increase. So LGA and BDR are our only stations with a 3° low temperature increase. 1951-1980 to 2010-2021 JJA average temperature increase NYC….max….+0.5….min +2.3 EWR….max…+2.3…..min…+2.3…identical to NYC Central Park LGA…..max….+2.6….min….+3.2 JFK……max....+2.2…min….+2.4 ISP…….max…..+2.7….min….+2.7……records start in 1964 BDR…..max…..+2.1…..min……+3.1…similar to LGA

Next week could be the thinnest record breaking ridge with a cutoff underneath that we have seen this time of year.

Feel free to cut and paste, copy, or take screen shots of the posts in this thread. I put out this data and analysis for everyone to freely share. You can add the post below to an email and send it along to him. The Central Park equipment was out in the sun and away from the deep shade during the 1951-1980 climate era. So we can compare how the high temperatures during the summer have changed between EWR, NYC, and LGA since then. The tree growth over the equipment has trimmed 2° off the NYC summer high temperatures relative to EWR and LGA. This has resulted in many lost recent heat records for NYC as the record warmth dramatically increased since 2010. Central Park should be averaging 10 more annual 90° days instead of just 1 if it was out in a grassy clearing away from the deep shade and cooling foliage. This error in temperature measurement became obvious after the mid 90s ASOS installation in NYC Central Park. 2010-2021 summer high temperature warming over 1951-1980 NYC 1951-1980……83.0……2010-2021….83.5…..+0.5….should be closer to 85.5 or +2.5 away from the shade EWR…83.4…..85.7…+2.3 LGA….82.0…..84.6...+2.6 90° days change NYC….18……19……+1…should be +10 and 28 days a year of 90° EWR….23....33…….+10 LGA…..15…..26…….+11 Link to photos and news stories on overgrowth of vegetation around the sensors http://www.weather2000.com/ASOS/NYC_ASOS.html

This has been our default summer pattern since 2018.

Yeah, another summer on the Euro with the subtropical ridge and Bermuda high pushing up into the Canadian Maritimes.

Yeah, the Euro,GEM, NAM, and RGEM have really slowed the progress of the cutoff low. So several models now have 2.00+ for the area.

The big 90° day leader at JFK las well as our other stations was 2010. But you can see how many top 10s there were in recent years. I bolded the 6 top 10 years since the post 2010 much warmer period began, Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 32 0 2 1983 26 0 3 2002 21 0 4 1971 18 0 - 1949 18 0 5 2005 17 0 - 1991 17 0 6 2012 16 0 - 1959 16 3 - 1955 16 2 7 2016 15 0 - 1995 15 0 - 1961 15 0 8 1999 14 0 - 1988 14 0 - 1966 14 0 - 1952 14 0 9 2011 13 0 - 1993 13 0 - 1984 13 0 - 1977 13 0 - 1970 13 0 - 1969 13 0 - 1963 13 0 10 2020 12 0 - 2015 12 0 - 2006 12 0 - 2003 12 0 - 1978 12 0 - 1968 12 0 - 1953 12 0

This may set a new record for the thinnest 591 dm ridge over New England with a cutoff stuck underneath.

Figures that the slowest moving cutoff nor’easter of the year waited until May. Euro has a general 1-2” of rain with localized higher amounts where the best banding sets up. Most of the rain falls from Friday night into Saturday with easterly gales and low 50s. The gales continue into Tuesday with periods of patchy drizzle near the coast.

The La Niña background state keeps getting stronger.

Great pattern for the surfers with easterly gales and 10 foot + swells from Saturday into Tuesday.

Pretty impressive heavy rainfall gradient for the cutoff low from Friday into Saturday. This would already have 100 posts of we were talking snow. All the guidance has a different forecast for how far north the heavy rains come.

Maybe one day a high enough ranking NWS official will find this thread and look at what is going on. We seldom see meteorologists from the local Upton NWS office join in these threads. But other local forums seem to have NWS meteorologists checking in. Walt is great but he was from Mt. Holly and Boston. So we probably need a local office member to take interest in this issue. They probably don’t even realize how far the Central Park ASOS has drifted away from the more accurate readings that we used to get before the new station was installed in the mid 90s. We can see how many top 10 years there were for 90° days at EWR and LGA since 2010. But notice how most of the NYC highest totals were from before the the time of new weather station in the mid 90s. If we add the 9 missing annual days to these totals, then they are more in agreement with LGA and EWR like they used to be before the mid 90s. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 54 0 2 1993 49 0 3 1988 43 0 4 2021 41 0 - 2002 41 0 - 1991 41 0 5 2016 40 0 1983 40 0 - 1959 40 0 6 1994 39 0 - 1944 39 0 7 2005 37 0 - 1987 37 0 8 2018 36 0 - 1949 36 0 9 2015 35 0 10 1961 34 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 48 0 2 2018 38 0 3 2002 35 0 4 2020 34 0 - 1991 34 0 5 2016 32 0 6 1983 31 0 7 2005 30 0 - 1953 30 0 8 1955 29 0 - 1944 29 0 9 2012 28 0 - 1949 28 0 10 1959 27 0 NYC uncorrected top 10 years for 90 days Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 1993 39 0 - 1991 39 0 2 2010 37 0 - 1944 37 0 3 1983 36 0 4 1966 35 0 5 2002 32 0 - 1988 32 0 - 1980 32 0 - 1953 32 0 6 1995 29 0 - 1961 29 0 - 1949 29 0 - 1941 29 1 7 1943 28 0 8 1999 27 0 - 1959 27 0 9 1936 26 0 10 1955 25 0 NYC corrected more recent top 10s Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 46 0 - 1991 39 0 2 1993 39 0 3 1944 37 0 2002 37 0 4 1983 36 0 5 1966 35 0 6 2005 32 0 - 1980 32 0 - 1953 32 0 2002 32 0 7 2016 31 0 8 2018 30 0 9 1941 29 1 1949 29 0 2020 29 0 10 1943 28

Liberty Bell Is there any way to project where Central Park would rank on these lists if their equipment was sited better? The Central Park equipment was out in the sun and away from the deep shade during the 1951-1980 climate era. So we can compare how the high temperatures during the summer have changed between EWR, NYC, and LGA since then. The tree growth over the equipment has trimmed 2° off the NYC summer high temperatures relative to EWR and LGA. This has resulted in many lost recent heat records for NYC as the record warmth dramatically increased since 2010. Central Park should be averaging 10 more annual 90° days instead of just 1 if it was out in a grassy clearing away from the deep shade and cooling foliage. 2010-2021 summer high temperature warming over 1951-1980 NYC 1951-1980……83.0……2010-2021….83.5…..+0.5….should be closer to 85.5 or +2.5 away from the shade EWR…83.4…..85.7…+2.3 LGA….82.0…..84.6...+2.6 90° days change NYC….18……19……+1…should be +10 and 28 days a year of 90° EWR….23....33…….+10 LGA…..15…..26…….+11

Strong model signal for the persistent cool easterly flow pattern continuing. High pressure builds to our north with waves of low pressure riding underneath. Next chance of rain for tomorrow. Then a larger cutoff low gets established to our south from Friday into Saturday. The blocking high may get so strong by Sunday that the low eventually gets pushed south. Then a 590 dm + near record ridge builds to our NW next week. Winds should initially be onshore here. So it starts out as one of our famous over the top warm ups which have been very common in recent years. We would need for the high to drift south and turn our winds more SW to have a shot at our first 80s of the month.

NE flow with light rain and low 50s near the coast today. At least this isn’t the Memorial Day weekend record low maxes like we got last year. LaGuardia Arpt LGT RAIN 53 50 89 NE14 New York-Central Park Area, NY Version: 17.1 (created 2022-04-13) Period of record: 1869 through 2021DateLowest maximum temperatures (degrees F) 5/29 51 in 2021 51 in 1884 57 in 1901 5/30 51 in 2021 55 in 1884 56 in 1953 5/31 57 in 1894 57 in 1878 61 in 1992+

It’s all on page #3 of the local climate change thread.

2020 was more about the high number of 95° days at LGA than the 90° days. Each station from JFK to LGA to EWR has different rankings based on the dominant wind direction. All 3 airports are on the water and subject to sea breezes at times. Obviously, JFK is the sea breeze king among the 3. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Missing Count 1 1955 14 0 2 2020 13 0 - 1999 13 0 3 2012 11 0 - 2010 11 0 - 1991 11 0 - 1953 11 0 4 1995 10 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 48 0 2 2018 38 0 3 2002 35 0 4 2020 34 0 - 1991 34 0 5 2016 32 0 6 1983 31 0 7 2005 30 0 - 1953 30 0 8 1955 29 0 - 1944 29 0 9 2012 28 0 - 1949 28 0 10 1959 27 0

2020 was the 4th warmest summer at JFK for average daily high temperature at 83.2°. It’s was #1 at LGA since the flow was more SW at 86.9°. So the sea breeze can make a big difference. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 85.4 0 2 2016 83.8 0 - 2011 83.8 0 3 2015 83.3 0 4 2020 83.2 0 - 1971 83.2 0 5 1991 83.1 0 - 1983 83.1 0 - 1949 83.1 0 6 1966 83.0 0 7 2012 82.9 0 8 2008 82.8 0 9 2002 82.7 0 - 1999 82.7 0 10 2005 82.6 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 86.9 0 2 2010 86.7 0 3 2016 86.3 0 4 1994 85.6 0 5 2005 85.3 0

It’s tough to judge the high temperatures across the area based on what is happening along the immediate south shore which is heavily influenced by the sea breeze. The coastal climate division covers all of Long Island and the 5 boroughs of NYC. So stations like JFK don’t really represent what the high temperatures are doing. The list below is the 10 highest maximum temperature summers. You can see that while 2010 was in a class by itself, years like 2016 and 2020 were right behind in 2nd and 3rd place. The only top 5 warmest summer for highs before 2010 was 1999. 201006 - 201008 84.2°F 127 4.9°F 201606 - 201608 83.1°F 126 3.8°F 202006 - 202008 82.9°F 125 3.6°F 199906 - 199908 82.8°F 124 3.5°F 201106 - 201108 82.6°F 123 3.3°F 200506 - 200508 82.3°F 122 3.0°F 194906 - 194908 82.1°F 121 2.8°F 199106 - 199108 82.1°F 121 2.8°F 200206 - 200208 82.1°F 121 2.8°F 201206 - 201208 82.1°F 121 2.8°F 198306 - 198308 82.0°F 117 2.7°F 194406 - 194408 81.9°F 116 2.6°F 195206 - 195208 81.8°F 115 2.5°F

Last summer set the new all-time hottest June temperature of 103° at Newark and 102° in Central Queens. It was also a high ranking 90° day year in Northern NJ. The 2020 summer was 2nd warmest on record behind 2010. Plus the dewpoints have been a record heights since the super El Niño in 2016. So the heat indices have been higher adding to how hot it has felt.

HPN was +0.3 and POU -0.5. Right on the edge of the area of warmer temperatures in New England. The SE Ridge tried to link up with the -NAO block.

The omega blocking will keep the onshore flow pattern going into early May. So it looks like the warmest days will top out in the low 70s. The models are all over the place on how much actual rainfall occurs. Multiple waves of low pressure undercut the block. Each model has different solutions. This will be a cooler start to May than in recent years that reached the upper 80s to low 90s at times. Continuing high pressure to the north with lows undercutting Cooler start to May than in recent years Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Highest Max Temperature May 1 to May 7 Missing Count 2021-05-07 86 0 2020-05-07 80 0 2019-05-07 78 0 2018-05-07 94 0 2017-05-07 76 0

LGA was the local coolest departure spot. NYC and BDR finished just behind. EWR, JFK, and ISP were close to average. EWR….+0.1 NYC.…-0.9 LGA…..-1.2 JFK……+0.1 ISP…..+0.3 BDR….-0.8