bluewave

April 2007 was in a class by itself for one day spring rainfall. Maximum 1-Day Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Period of record: 1869-01-01 to 2022-04-06 1 7.57 2007-04-15 2 4.97 2014-04-30 3 4.31 1983-04-10 4 3.42 1980-04-09 5 3.29 1983-04-16 6 2.82 2018-04-16 7 2.76 1984-04-05 8 2.74 1980-04-28 9 2.72 1909-04-14 10 2.52 1886-04-06

You can see the gradual progression to this summer pattern since 2010.

The Euro seasonal is going for a repeat of last summer. High dewpoint ridge east of New England. It could allow more tropical systems to get stuck underneath like we saw last summer. We had 2 tropical and 2 post tropical systems affect our region. There were a total of 21 named storms last year. The Euro has 18-19 named storms for this year. The big story for us was the historic flooding with Ida and Henri.

Looks like a brief taste of spring for several days next week. Highs should at least reach the 70s. But a few warmer Euro and GFS runs have 80s for the usual warm spots. This is followed by the return of more blocking and cooler temperatures. The clash of air masses will result in more severe potential across the U.S. Cool weekend Brief warm up next week Next cool down with more blocking

It could be a great technology if done cost effectively enough for widespread use. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/first-light-achieves-world-first-fusion-result-proving-unique-new-target-technology-301517509.html Fusion shown with projectile approach for first time, validated by UKAEA Breakthrough achieved faster and cheaper than traditional fusion approaches Unique target approach offers simpler pathway to low-cost fusion energy using existing plant technology Projectile approach enables a high-margin consumables business model with an addressable market in the hundreds of billions

Unusually strong closed low to our west from tomorrow into the weekend with all the blocking.

Large increase in Northeast rainfall and snowfall extremes as the SSTs rapidly warm and water vapor rises. https://phys.org/news/2018-07-extreme-precipitation-northeast.html From Maine to West Virginia, the Northeast has seen a larger increase in extreme precipitation than anywhere else in the U.S. Prior research found that these heavy rain and snow events, defined as a day with about two inches of precipitation or more, have been 53 percent higher in the Northeast since 1996. A Dartmouth study finds that hurricanes and tropical storms are the primary cause of this increase, followed by thunderstorms along fronts and extratropical cyclones like Nor'easters. The findings are published in the Journal of Geophysical Research. Our study provides insight into what types of extreme storms are changing and why. We found that hurricanes were responsible for nearly half of the increase in extreme rainfall across the Northeast. A warmer Atlantic Ocean and more water vapor in the atmosphere are fueling these storms, causing them to drop more rain over the Northeast," explains Jonathan M. Winter, an assistant professor of geography at Dartmouth and co-author of the study. "Other research has demonstrated that these two conditions have been enhanced in our warmer world," added Huanping Huang, a graduate student in earth sciences at Dartmouth and the study's lead author. The findings demonstrate that 88 percent of the extreme precipitation increase after 1996 was caused by large storms in Feb., March, June, July, Sept. and Oct. Hurricanes and tropical storms, also known as "tropical cyclones," accounted for nearly half, or 48 percent, of the increase in extreme rainfall. After 1996, the Northeast experienced almost four times more extreme rainfall events from hurricanes and tropical storms than from 1979-1995. Severe thunderstorms along "fronts," especially intense downpours along cold fronts, accounted for 25 percent of the increase in extreme precipitation. Nor'easters and other "extratropical cyclones," which are storms that form outside of the tropics, accounted for 15 percent of the increase in extreme precipitation. Other research has found that the causes of more frequent extreme precipitation events in this study—increased ocean temperatures, more water vapor in the atmosphere, and a wavier jet stream—are associated with a warmer world. These results build on the team's earlier research by examining what caused the increase in heavier or extreme precipitation beginning in 1996. The researchers analyzed precipitationdata from 1979 to 2016 across the Northeast— Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Mass., Conn., R.I., N.J., N.Y., Pa., Md., DC, Del., and W.Va. in conjunction with data pertaining to daily weather maps and oceanic and atmospheric fields. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/29/6/waf-d-14-00056_1.xml Abstract On 8–9 February 2013, the northeastern United States experienced a historic winter weather event ranking among the top five worst blizzards in the region. Heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions occurred from northern New Jersey, inland to New York, and northward through Maine. Storm-total snow accumulations of 30–61 cm were common, with maximum accumulations up to 102 cm and snowfall rates exceeding 15 cm h−1. Dual-polarization radar measurements collected for this winter event provide valuable insights into storm microphysical processes. In this study, polarimetric data from the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) in Upton, New York (KOKX), are investigated alongside thermodynamic analyses from the 13-km Rapid Refresh model and surface precipitation type observations from both Meteorological Phenomena Identification Near the Ground (mPING) and the National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Office in Upton, New York, for interpretation of polarimetric signatures. The storm exhibited unique polarimetric signatures, some of which have never before been documented for a winter system. Reflectivity values were unusually large, reaching magnitudes >50 dBZ in shallow regions of heavy wet snow near the surface. The 0°C transition line was exceptionally distinct in the polarimetric imagery, providing detail that was often unmatched by the numerical model output. Other features include differential attenuation of magnitudes typical of melting hail, depolarization streaks that provide evidence of electrification, nonuniform beamfilling, a “snow flare” signature, and localized downward excursions of the melting-layer bright band collocated with observed transitions in surface precipitation types. In agreement with previous studies, widespread elevated depositional growth layers, located at temperatures near the model-predicted −15°C isotherm, appear to be correlated with increased snowfall and large reflectivity factors ZH near the surface. https://www.weather.gov/okx/HistoricFlooding_081314 SUMMARY: An official, New York State 24 hour precipitation record was set at Islip, NY on August 12-13, 2014 with 13.57" of rain (See Public Information Statement). This breaks the previous record of 11.6" at Tannersville, NY on August 27-28, 2011 during Hurricane/Tropical storm Irene. 1.08" fell in just 8 minutes from 5:39 am to 5:47 am (See Islip, NY Rainfall Data)! An anomalously deep upper level trough was moving into the northeast the morning of August 13th, transporting deep moisture over Long Island. At the surface, a parent low pressure system was moving across southeast Canada, with secondary low development just south of New York City. Heavy precipitation focused along and just north of the warm front associated with the secondary low pressure system. The mean storm motion was parallel to the orientation of the warm front and was significant in helping maintain heavy rain over Islip, NY for several hours. Click the links below to view different aspects of this historical event.

We need a SW to W flow for our local area to reach 100°. This usually requires the ridge axis to build westward toward the Great Lakes. But the ridge axis during recent summers has been elongated to the east of New England. So we get more onshore flow and higher humidity instead of more 100° days. Our most extreme daily heat record in recent years occurred during February 2018. The SE Ridge built to record heights over the region for the entire cold season. This was associated with the 500 mb heights increase as outlined in the presentation at the start of the thread. It was the first time that our area experienced 80° record heat in February. https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/summer-february-80-massachusetts-78-nyc Astonishing summer-like heat cooked the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday, smashing all-time records for February warmth in cities in at least ten states, from Georgia to Maine. At least 24 cities recorded their hottest February temperature on record on Wednesday, including New York City (78°), Hartford, CT (74°) and Concord, NH (74°). According to Weather Underground weather historian Christopher C. Burt, February 20 - 21 marked the most extraordinary heat event to ever affect the Northeastern quadrant of the U.S. during the month of February, since official records began in the late 1800s. He catalogued the following eight states that tied or beat all-time February state heat records over the past two days, noting that in the case of Maine and Vermont, “It is simply amazing to beat a state temperature record by some 8°F!”:Pennsylvania: 83° at Capitol City (ties old record for the state)New York: 79° at La Guardia Airport (old state record 78°)Vermont: 77° at Bennington (old state record 68°)New Hampshire: 77° at Manchester and Danbury (old state record 72°)Maine: 77° at Wells (old state record 69°)New Jersey: 83° at Teterboro (old state record 80°)Massachusetts: 80° at Fitchburg (old state record 73°)Ohio: 80° at Cincinnati Lunken Airport (ties old record for the state)

During recent summers, the high has set up east of New England instead of near Bermuda like in the old days. So this allowed Hartford to record more 90° days than around NYC in 2020. Burlington, Vermont was also able to record their first 80° minimum temperature in 2018. Time Series Summary for Hartford Area, CT (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2020 39 0 2 1983 38 0 3 2002 35 0 4 2010 34 0 - 1965 34 0 5 2018 32 0 - 1966 32 0 6 2016 31 0 - 1991 31 0 7 1988 30 0 - 1973 30 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 48 0 2 2018 38 0 3 2002 35 0 4 2020 34 0 - 1991 34 0 5 2016 32 0 6 1983 31 0 7 2005 30 0 - 1953 30 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 54 0 2 1993 49 0 3 1988 43 0 4 2021 41 0 - 2002 41 0 - 1991 41 0 5 2016 40 0 - 1983 40 0 - 1959 40 0 6 1994 39 0 - 1944 39 0 7 2005 37 0 - 1987 37 0 8 2018 36 0 - 1949 36 0 9 2015 35 0

As the subtropical ridge expanded northward to the Canadian Maritimes, the flow became more S to SSE. So this has allowed the record high dew points to move into the region during recent summers. At times the result was higher actual temperatures into New England than around NYC Metro. This was due to a more SW flow into those areas. But both our area and New England have experienced the warmest and most humid summers on record summers since 2010.

The historic +13.3 departure in December 2015 marked the shift to much warmer winters. This February is the 16th winter month out of the last 21 with above normal average temperatures. It’s also a record breaking 7th warmer than normal winter in a row since 2015-2016. The new 1991-2020 normal NYC winter average temperature for NYC is 36.2°. So this is the first winter after the increase from the 1981-2010 average of 35.1°. NYC Feb 22….+1.4 Jan 22….-3.2 Dec 21….+4.7 Feb 21….-1.1 Jan 21….+2.2 Dec 20…+1.7 Feb 20…+4.8 Jan 20….+6.5 Dec 19….+0.8 Feb 19….+0.9 Jan 19….-0.1 Dec 18…+2.6 Feb 18…+6.7 Jan 18….-0.9 Dec 17…..-2.5 Feb 17…..+6.3 Jan 17….+5.4 Dec 16….+0.8 Feb 16….+2.4 Jan 16….+1.9 Dec 15….+13.3 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Season Mean Avg Temperature Departure 2021-2022 37.1 +0.9 2020-2021 36.1 +1.0 2019-2020 39.2 +4.1 2018-2019 36.3 +1.2 2017-2018 36.2 +1.1 2016-2017 39.3 +4.2 2015-2016 41.0 +6.0

With the record blocking patterns since 2002-2003, we have seen an unprecedented number of seasons when stations from around Newark out to Eastern LI recorded 40” or more of snow. This dramatic increase in snowfall has occurred during a steady increase in winter temperatures. Our older winters with 40”+ peak snowfall amounts used to occur with a NYC average temperature around 32°. But many recent 40”+ seasons featured a NYC average DJF temperature in the 35°-40° range. So this is a new combination of warmth and heavy snow for our area. Seasons since 1950 when at least one station from Newark to Eastern LI recorded 40”+ and the NYC DJF average temperature. 35°+ average temperature seasons bolded 20-21….36.1 17-18….36.2 16-17….39.3 15-16….41.0 14-15…31.4 13-14…32.9 12-13…36.8 10-11….32.8 09-10…33.8 08-09…34.2 05-06…37.3 04-05…35.4 03-04…32.4 02-03…31.2 00-01….33.5 95-96…32.2 93-94…31.2 86-87….34.8 77-78….30.8 68-69….32.9 66-67….34.1 63-64…33.2 60-61….31.7 57-58…33.2 55-56…32.8 Yeah, that’s why we have been getting so much record warmth before or after our best snowstorms since the super El Niño in 15-16. Last December it was 60s before and after our best December snowstorm and -AO in years. May 2020 tied for our latest trace of snow following one of our warmest winters. 17-18 featured 30” of snow in March on Long Island after Newark hit 80° in late February. We had the blizzard in February 2017 a day after the 60s. 15-16 went +13.3 in December followed by the 30” snowstorm in January and new #1 NYC snowstorm. Even before the super El Niño, we were getting occasional patterns like this. Nemo in February 2013 following the very warm first few months of winter. The 11-12 lack of winter after the record snowstorm in late October. The February 2006 NYC #2 snow following one our warmest Januaries on record. The late winter 2005 snowstorms following one of the warmest first 2 weeks of January on record. This is a sea level version of spring in the Rockies where snow and warmth have often occurred together.

The monthly temperature increases from 81-10 to 91-20 have been more pronounced during certain months. Newark and Islip are compared below. The +1.0 or warmer months for either station were bolded. ……….EWR…..ISP Dec…+1.5….+1.5 Jan….+1.2…+1.3 Feb….+0.5….+0.5 Mar….+0.4….+0.6 Apr….+0.5…..+0.6 May...+0.6….+0.9 Jun….+0.3….+0.6 Jul…..+1.4…..+1.1 Aug...+0.6….+0.9 Sep….+1.0….+1.3 Oct…..+0.9..+1.4 Nov….+0.2..+0.5

The storm system for tomorrow looks more impressive than the one that we are getting today. A morning warm front with convection. This is followed by the area getting warm sectored with a nice pocket of MUCAPE. Both the mesos and Euro have heavy convection. It will be interesting to see if we can break the inversion like we did last week for some stronger winds and perhaps an isolated spin up. Weaker storm for today Heavy elevated convection on Thursday

For areas that are trying to deploy more renewables, the approval process has stalled out. https://www.bayjournal.com/news/climate_change/more-than-800-solar-projects-in-bay-states-stuck-waiting-for-review/article_71a4375a-af6a-11ec-9071-03d4665eb07b.html The rollout of solar and other renewable energy projects that Pennsylvania, Maryland and Virginia are counting on to end fossil-fuel reliance is caught up in a review bottleneck that is severely hampering the transition. In those three Chesapeake Bay drainage states, 807 utility-scale, commercial rooftop, community solar and solar storage projects have been stuck in a growing regulatory traffic jam. Proposals have been waiting a year and often longer for PJM Interconnection, the organization that coordinates electricity transmission in 13 states and the District of Columbia, to complete the required studies that would move the projects forward. Across PJM’s region, about 2,500 solar, solar storage and wind energy projects are awaiting a decision on whether they can connect to the electricity transmission network. Although that number will likely drop for a variety of financing and logistical reasons, the backlog has slowed the rollout of renewable projects, and delays can cause some projects to fail. The slowdown comes at a time when each of the three major Bay watershed states, like many others, have adopted aggressive climate-change mitigation policies that rely on renewable energy. The combined solar projects waiting in line, if built, could power an estimated 5.6 million homes. At present, existing solar sites in the three states produce enough power for about 128,000 homes. PJM is responsible for ensuring that the transmission grid can handle any new electricity added to the mix. It has the authority to require new projects to build equipment and upgrade transmission systems so that the grid has enough power at any moment to keep the lights on in homes and businesses during any kind of weather. As part of that evaluation, PJM considers how the proposed power generation would affect the grid. In the last four years, PJM has signed off on 725 renewable energy projects from a long line of applicants. To help relieve the backup, PJM is planning to develop a streamlined review process intended to dramatically shorten the study period. But that overhaul could take two years. In the meantime, PJM is delaying new applications for two years, and it’s proposing a two-tiered process to handle projects already in the pipeline. The projects deemed most “shovel ready” would be fast-tracked, according to PJM. That would total about 450 of the total 2,500 backlogged projects in all states. Those less ready, for whatever reason, would have to wait until the new review process is in place, which may not be until late 2025. For them, a determination of whether they can hook into the electric grid may not come until 2027. PJM’s plan, which needs approval from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, has widespread support from the company’s 507 voting members, which include power utilities, transmission line owners, renewable energy developers, financial traders, state consumer advocates and others. Support for pressing pause Despite the prospect of further delays for many projects, PJM said that Bay watershed states will be able to meet the renewable energy goals they have set to help address climate change. “We have met with the states, including Pennsylvania, Maryland and Virginia, that have aggressive goals,” said Kenneth Seiler, PJM’s vice president of planning. “We are very well-positioned to facilitate the interconnection of renewable generation and help the states meet their goals out into the future. “Had we not done anything, there would be limited opportunities for the states to achieve their goals. We are trying to be the voice of reason here.” The states, though not happy about the current impediments, agree. Pausing the process and creating new rules to speed the more-ready projects in the queue we hope will break the logjam and reduce process congestion in the future,” said Jamar Thrasher, a spokesman for the Pennsylvania Energy Office. “We also hope that the pause will be shorter than anticipated.” The suspension of new project reviews comes at a time when demand for solar energy is growing. Solar made up more than half of all new electricity generated in the United States during the first three quarters of 2021, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association and Wood Mackenzie, a global energy consultant. Most of the renewable projects in the PJM queue are solar. Virginia in 2020 set a goal of achieving 100% clean electricity by 2050. It has 416 backlogged projects, enough to power 3.7 million homes, according to PJM. In 2021, the state ranked fourth in the nation in new solar installations. But since 2016, at least 225 solar projects have dropped out of the PJM waiting list. “We need the ability for projects to come into the queue and get built,” said Harry Godfrey, executive director of Virginia Advanced Energy Economy, a business coalition seeking affordable clean energy. “Otherwise, that is a short– and long-term problem for Virginia in meeting its clean economy goals.” Pennsylvania has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions 26% by 2025 and 80% by 2050. It has 443 solar projects awaiting approval in the PJM queue. That’s enough to power approximately 1.4 million homes. Maryland, which aims to get 50% of its energy from renewable sources by 2030, with a minimum of 14.5% from solar power, has 48 solar projects in line, enough to power 410,000 homes. Roots of the problem PJM has long operated by managing grid access for a relatively small number of large and centrally located power plants. But the nonprofit corporation found itself overwhelmed by the surge of smaller renewable-energy projects, many located in rural areas away from population centers and needing a way to tap into the grid. Based in Valley Forge, PA, PJM is the largest of 10 transmission operators in the U.S. It oversees more than 84,000 miles of transmission lines and serves more than 65 million people in Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, Delaware, New Jersey and Ohio, as well as parts of Kentucky, Tennessee, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and North Carolina. But its review staff of engineers and other specialists couldn’t keep up as new proposals were filed — with applications tripling in three years. PJM has been expanding staff and hiring consultants to aid with reviews.

Renewables like solar and wind require far more space per watt than fossil fuels do. https://governorswindenergycoalition.org/the-u-s-will-need-a-lot-of-land-for-a-zero-carbon-economy/ Wind farms, solar installations and other forms of clean power take up far more space on a per-watt basis than their fossil-fuel-burning brethren. A 200-megawatt wind farm, for instance, might require spreading turbines over 19 square miles (49 square kilometres). A natural-gas power plant with that same generating capacity could fit onto a single city block.

The Euro has over 2.00 “ across the area with a storm on Wednesday and another on Thursday.

Yeah, 2002 was the last time that NYC had water restrictions. The occasional drier intervals since then have been mostly nuisance level that have resolved rather quickly.

The super El Niño in 15-16 really changed up the blocking patterns. We used to get stronger winter blocking that weakened during the spring. Now the weaker winter blocking gets stronger in the spring. After the event in 15-16 Before

The SPV was just too strong this winter. We could have used this strat warming and SPV weakening months earlier. Blocking this late in the season is cool and rainy rather than snowy.

Suffolk beat Sussex this year in 21-22 snowfall challenge. Very progressive pattern kept the storm track further east. Last winter the tucked in blocking storm track allowed Sussex to win. Data for October 1, 2021 through April 5, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Snowfall NESCONSET 1.4 SSW CoCoRaHS 38.3 ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 38.0 BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 37.7 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 37.0 BAITING HOLLOW COOP 33.8 BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE CoCoRaHS 33.6 RIDGE 1.5 SE CoCoRaHS 31.5 UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 30.9 Data for October 1, 2021 through April 5, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Snowfall HARDYSTON TWP 3.2 SE CoCoRaHS 28.0 WANTAGE TWP 1.6 SE CoCoRaHS 27.3 SPARTA TWP 3.6 SSW CoCoRaHS 27.3 MONTAGUE TWP 2.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 26.1 VERNON TWP 1.7 N CoCoRaHS 23.9 NEWTON 0.3 W CoCoRaHS 21.9 SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 21.7 Data for October 1, 2020 through April 5, 2021 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Snowfall HIGHLAND LAKES 1SW COOP 64.8 NEWTON 0.3 W CoCoRaHS 63.9 SPARTA TWP 3.6 SSW CoCoRaHS 63.7 MONTAGUE TWP 2.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 63.5 SPARTA TWP 3.3 NW CoCoRaHS 61.0 Data for October 1, 2020 through April 5, 2021 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Snowfall NESCONSET 1.4 SSW CoCoRaHS 46.1 MOUNT SINAI COOP 41.3 PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW CoCoRaHS 39.3 BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 38.2 BAITING HOLLOW COOP 37.8 CENTERPORT COOP 36.7 UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 35.4 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 33.5

The latest extended EPS has only a brief relaxation of the blocking for mid month before it reloads again by the 18th. Apr 4-11 Apr 11-18 Apr 18-25

Public opposition to renewable energy is one of the biggest hurdles that needs to be overcome for wider acceptance. Projects are being blocked all over the country. Land use conflicts are a growing concern since solar and wind use so much land. Several environmental groups are actually fighting against the power transmission lines needed here in the Northeast. They just closed the Indian Point nuclear plant that supplied about 25% of the energy for NYC. Now emissions have gone up and NYC has to rely more on natural gas. The electric bills surged for NYC this January which had to use very expensive natural gas this winter. So this energy transition is going to be quite a challenge. https://climate.law.columbia.edu/content/opposition-renewable-energy-facilities-united-states More than 100 ordinances have been adopted in 31 states blocking or restricting new wind, solar, and other renewable energy facilities, and more than 160 of these projects have been contested in 48 states. Columbia Law School’s Sabin Center for Climate Change Law issued a report documenting these instances of local opposition to renewables. https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/new-york-elections-government/ny-lawmakers-con-edison-utility-bills-price-hike-20220209-uv7d734ag5frnlpkpwrqjhbkgu-story.html City and state lawmakers are amped up over a sudden rate spike that many New Yorkers are now seeing on their Con Ed energy bills — charges that could make it impossible for some to afford rent and their utilities. Brandy Bora, a corporate executive who rents a loft in Greenpoint, said her family’s Con Ed bill shot up from $300 in December to $850 last month — an increase, which, if sustained, will mean they’ll eventually be forced to move.

Looks like a wet week coming up. There is still a bit of spread on the exact storm tracks and rainfall amounts. I wonder if the missing balloon soundings have degraded some of the model output?

It will be interesting to see how long the mid month more spring-like pattern can last. The week 3 EPS and GEFS try to bring back some blocking around the 20th. While there will still be a SE Ridge, it could mean occasional back doors and stalled frontal zones between the warmer days. We’ll get some hints when the new extended EPS comes out tomorrow. April 18-25 EPS April 20th GEFS