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bluewave

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  1. bluewave
    Due to the tropical nature of the rainfall, the E-W band along the South Shore is being underestimated a bit by the radar. Getting a heavy downpour here in SW Suffolk that is more impressive than radar indicates.
  2. bluewave
    It’s very disappointing to see how they let the NYC observation station go once the NWS left Rockefeller Center. Central Park Weather: Vegetative Overgrowth Affecting Weather Readings - WABC-TV (New York-WABC, August 22, 2003) - Forecasting the weather is not easy. Government equipment can often be blamed for giving faulty weather information. As Bill Evans explains, a big culprit may be some of the equipment buried in Central Park. Rainfall, snowfall, and the temperature are all vital information recorded 24 hours a day at the weather station located in the heart of Central Park. But meteorologists like Michael Schlacter have serious concerns about the accuracy of the stations data. It sits amid overgrown vegetation and he says thats the problem. The leaves can trigger snow gauges and trees can warp rain and wind measurements. On this hot day, a temperature gauge is in the shade instead of direct sunlight. Michael Schlacter, Weather 2000: "Its kind of like driving a car without a speedometer, odometer, and gas gauge. You are running with false information." The weather instruments at Belvedere Castle have long adorned the top. There used to be a government meteorologist here in the city to keep an eye on them. But now the nearest meteorologist is 60 miles that way. But National Weather Service meteorologists say they knew the weather readings in the park would never be as keenly accurate as the ones at the airports where guidelines prevent foliage from being within 100 feet of the station. Schlacter: "We knew that at times we would have flaky readings, that leaves would fall in gauges, that we would have problems with visibility sensors." [NWS Meteorologist-in-Charge Michael] Wyllie says the weather station is there because it was historically significant to maintain its presence in the park. He says theres been a lot of growth because of the wet spring at so much in fact that temperatures have routinely been recorded lower in the park than at the airports. Wyllie: "We are actually having a micro climate system there because of the vegetation." Imperfect perhaps but nonetheless the system provides the official record of weather for the country's largest city. And Michael Schlacter says its a city that deserves better. Schlacter: "I think New Yorkers deserve a lot better, and I think they deserve the best weather station money can buy." Copyright 2003 ABC Inc., WABC-TV Inc.
  3. bluewave
    The HREF showed the potential but the axis of heaviest rainfall was too far south. https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=850&yr=2021 Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0850 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 602 PM EDT Sat Aug 21 2021 Areas affected...South-Central New Jersey...Far Southeastern Pennsylvania Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 212200Z - 220400Z Summary...An axis of very heavy rainfall is expected to develop with 2-3+"/hr rates leading to some totals of 3-6 inches. Localized flash flooding is likely. Discussion...As Hurricane Henri moves northward late this afternoon and evening, an axis of very heavy rainfall is expected to develop across portions of south-central New Jersey and far southeastern Pennsylvania. Strong low-level moisture transport from the east (via Henri) is leading to precipitable water values building to 2.1 to 2.3 inches, while an upper-level trough axis and associated jet streak (right entrance region) will provide enhanced lift aloft. This banded feature will likely initiate with a NNW to SSE orientation, gradually pivoting counter-clockwise (from the WNW to ESE) towards midnight (local). The nearly stationary nature of the heavy rain axis will allow for repeating of very efficient rates (2-3+"/hr) as strong moisture transport and upper-level lift allow SB CAPE to remain elevated around 1000-1500 J/kg. Hi-res CAM guidance (12z HREF and more recent HRRR runs) have been consistent in painting a localized swath of 3-6 inches of rainfall from near Atlantic City, NJ to the Philadelphia, PA metropolitan area through midnight local. The 12z HREF 40km neighborhood probabilities depict a greater than 30% chance of 3" exceedance over 3 hours and a greater than 20% chance of 5" exceedance over 12 hours (ending 06z). In addition, the HRRR has been very consistent run-to-run producing a swath of 2-6 inches. Given this guidance and the overall synoptic and mesoscale setup, localized flash flooding is considered likely (with more sensitive urbanized areas of the greatest concern).
  4. bluewave
    NYC just set its new heaviest hourly rainfall total at 1.94”. The 8th heaviest hourly total was set back in July. Notice how many hourly records were set in recent years.
  5. bluewave
    Impressive flooding in Brooklyn last night. Station Number: NJ-HD-1 Station Name: Harrison 0.3 N Observation Date 8/22/2021 7:00 AM Submitted 8/22/2021 6:58 AM Total Precip Amount 4.26 in. Notes -- Taken at registered location Yes Snow Information New Snow Depth NA New Snow Water Equivalent NA Total Snow Depth NA Total Snow Water Equivalent NA Duration Information Precipitation Began -- Precipitation Ended -- Heavy Precip Began -- Heavy Precip Lasted -- Duration Time Accuracy -- Additional Information Additional Data Recorded No Submitted 8/22/2021 6:58 AM Flooding
  6. bluewave
    These rainfall totals may be a record for a hurricane passing this much east of NJ. But you can see the unusual set up with the upper low parked to the SW. These rain bands usually extend south to north up into Northern New England with hurricanes near the SE New England coastline.
  7. bluewave
    Great thread on Twitter today explaining why those charts comparing past heatwaves to today are misleading.
  8. bluewave
    Tough to keep up with all these record extremes.
  9. bluewave
    6z Euro shifted east between MTP and BID.
  10. bluewave
    A GFS-Euro blend has been the winning hand for short term track forecasts.
  11. bluewave
    PSEG customers are rooting for a further east landfall on Long Island due to the precarious state of the power grid this summer. https://www.newsday.com/long-island/politics/lipa-nypa-1.50331708 Problems with three major power lines to Long Island — including total outages on two of the largest — led LIPA trustees on Wednesday to approve a measure to pay $67 million to fix a Holtsville power plant the state had planned to mothball. LIPA and grid manager PSEG Long Island also have put on hold plans to decommission small peak-power plants in Glenwood Landing and West Babylon to help make up the gap for the failure of the two power lines this summer, officials disclosed at a LIPA trustees meeting Wednesday morning. One of the failures involves a power cable owned by the New York Power Authority called Y-49. The cable failed Aug. 6, the fourth time in the past year, utility officials disclosed Wednesday. The Y-49 line has a capacity of 637 megawatts, nearly double the capacity of the Caithness power plant in Yaphank. Another line between the LIPA and Con Ed system known as Y-50 that provides 656 megawatts of capacity has also failed, officials also disclosed. The Neptune cable between Long Island and New Jersey was reduced to just over half its 660-megawatt capacity after a transformer failed earlier this year. It won't be back online until early 2022. Off-island transmission lines, including the Cross Sound Cable and the Norwalk to Northport cables, which remain fully operable, provide around 40% of Long Island's power. The Y-49 and Y-50 cables could be out for a month to 10 weeks, officials said.
  12. bluewave
    Very humid WAR pattern to continue into late August.
  13. bluewave
    Look what it took to erase that record warm pool near Japan.
  14. bluewave
    We often get model convergence on the run when a tropical cyclone completes it turn to the north. The 0z runs were focused on Eastern Long Island for a landfall. Highest impacts located right along the eventual track of Henri. This is one of the smallest tropical cyclones to impact the area.
  15. bluewave
    While Juan was a much stronger system, it also had a lack of frontal structure for such a far north hurricane.
  16. bluewave
    Yeah, many members as far west as the CMC and UKMET.
  17. bluewave
    No surprise that the 12z Euro came further west into Suffolk similar to many 6z EPS members.
  18. bluewave
    It’s been tough to bet against more westerly tracks with record WAR.
  19. bluewave
    There were a group of 6z EPS tracks which were further west like the UKMET and CMC. So a highly anticipated Euro and EPS run coming up. We’ll find out if the 12z GFS was exhibiting its eastern bias.
  20. bluewave
    I agree. Should be an interesting next few model runs. Remember the Euro has been underestimating the the WAR. It didn’t start showing Fred going further to our west until practically nowcast time.
  21. bluewave
    The further west models merge with the small closed low in VA sooner.
  22. bluewave
    That’s why I said west of Cape Cod. Any landfall in Rhode Island or Long Island would be the first recorded event to pass within 200 miles of Bermuda. Numerous models are showing a potential landfall somewhere in Suffolk county.
  23. bluewave
    This is just another example of how extreme the WAR has become. Tropical cyclones that pass within 200 miles of Bermuda usually go OTS. Henri is on track to become the first tropical cyclone to landfall west of Cape Cod. Hermine in 2004 and another weak system in 1923 were the only two storms to impact Cape Cod.
  24. bluewave
    This could be one of our longer 70°+ dew point streaks. The Euro has 70°+ dew points for the rest of the month. So we are on track for our first 6 year stretch of 50 days reaching the 70° dew point mark.
  25. bluewave
    Very impressive dew points from Florida into SE Canada.
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