bluewave

Westchester is currently at the 10th warmest March through the 18th. NYC and other areas are just outside the top 10. Plenty of competition for even warmer recent years. Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 18 Missing Count 1 2016-03-18 45.2 0 2 2012-03-18 45.0 0 3 1973-03-18 44.4 0 4 2020-03-18 43.9 1 5 1983-03-18 43.5 0 6 2010-03-18 43.1 0 7 1990-03-18 42.5 1 8 1977-03-18 41.6 0 9 2000-03-18 41.1 7 10 2022-03-18 40.8 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 18 Missing Count 1 2016-03-18 49.0 0 2 2012-03-18 48.3 0 3 2020-03-18 48.2 0 4 1977-03-18 47.7 0 5 1973-03-18 47.3 0 - 1921-03-18 47.3 0 6 1946-03-18 46.7 0 7 2010-03-18 46.3 0 8 1990-03-18 46.2 0 9 2000-03-18 46.0 0 10 1903-03-18 45.6 0 11 1945-03-18 45.5 0 12 1878-03-18 45.4 0 13 2022-03-18 45.1 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 18 Missing Count 1 1973-03-18 46.3 0 2 2016-03-18 45.3 0 3 2012-03-18 44.2 0 4 2020-03-18 43.9 0 5 2010-03-18 43.6 0 6 1977-03-18 43.4 0 7 2000-03-18 42.5 0 8 1983-03-18 41.9 0 - 1974-03-18 41.9 0 9 2011-03-18 41.6 0 10 1990-03-18 41.4 0 11 2022-03-18 41.3 0

Today could be our last shot at 70s this month. Models have a wetter pattern by next week with more blocking. Then maybe our last freeze potential in late March.

Record highs to our north today.

It kept the beach traffic out of Long Beach that summer. While the residents loved it, the merchants that depended on beach crowds weren’t too happy. But it was nice having the bike lane on the Boardwalk less crowded.

2009 was the last cool summer around the area.

Last summer was the first time in years that Newark lead the area in 90° days. So it’s all about where the warmest temperatures set up. But one of the stations in the NE NJ urban corridor usually has the most 90° days. Data for April 1, 2021 through October 31, 2021 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 41 NJ HARRISON COOP 38 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 37 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 32 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 25 Data for April 1, 2020 through October 31, 2020 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 NJ HARRISON COOP 39 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 37 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 37 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 34 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 31 Data for April 1, 2019 through October 31, 2019 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 NJ HARRISON COOP 39 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 37 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 36 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 31 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 27 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 26 Data for April 1, 2018 through October 31, 2018 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 NJ HARRISON COOP 47 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 46 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 38 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 38 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 36

3 days reaching 70° or warmer used to be a rarity before the start of astronomical spring.

It was always forecast to be a final dynamic warming with a transient -NAO -AO block. Looks like we could see a slow moving closed low. So there is the chance of some heavier rains with a slow moving system under the block.

Taste of spring next few days. Widespread 70s today. Some spots may reach 70° again tomorrow. Then a chance of thunderstorms on Saturday which could be locally strong to severe.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01159-7.epdf?sharing_token=_FVaOVyABkcD2Hudkuy4HdRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0O_gxR6rgaJtPXjMaI-B_Efht4SyFms8mqqnoqmB-1adVBLGM5Ox8NTZgYnk58C8f_MqmRXlgMUKAvhPoz3ntaVpIMcZZ9PrSyXcXowWePIeqVtKWaAjhHN6qpaUvjsKJPMu2-ItgHqBkpP-ekBm2TbTkyKT4Ld921Svm7C1wJQmod5-Am_0W6rnLf3GjdTJ9U%3D&tracking_referrer=www.theguardian.com Abstract The northeastern United States (NEUS) and the adjacent Northwest Atlantic Shelf (NWS) have emerged as warming hotspots, but the connection between them remains unexplored. Here we use gridded observational and reanalysis datasets to show that the twentieth-century surface air temperature increase along the coastal NEUS is exceptional on the continental and hemispheric scale and is induced by a combination of two factors: the sea surface temperature (SST) increase in the NWS associated with a weakening Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and atmospheric circulation changes associated with a more persistent positive North Atlantic Oscillation. These connections are important because AMOC slowdown and NWS warming are projected to continue. A survey of climate model simulations indicates that realistic SST representation at high spatial resolution might be a minimum requirement to capture the observed pattern of coastal warming, suggesting that prior projection-based assessments may not have captured key features in this populous region.

Models going for the final dynamic warming around March 25th. So we get a brief interruption of the spring pattern with some blocking and cooler temperatures. The persistent La Niña background state returns to start April with a warmer -PNA SE Ridge pattern .

JFK can hit 70° on Friday if the winds stay westerly for long enough. If we keep the offshore flow long enough, then it will be possible. The models have a wind shift in the afternoon. So it may be a race to see how warm we get before the SE flow and clouds arrive.

The warm spots away from the shore in NJ make another run on 70° today. Friday looks like it will be the warmest day of the week. Widespread readings in the 70-75 range.

Another day with high temperatures beating guidance. 65° now at Newark. So Newark moves into 4th place for most 65° days by March 15th. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Max Temperature >= 65 Jan 1 to Mar 15 Missing Count 1 2017-03-15 10 0 2 2000-03-15 7 0 3 1990-03-15 6 0 - 1976-03-15 6 0 4 2020-03-15 5 0 - 2016-03-15 5 0 - 2012-03-15 5 0 - 2008-03-15 5 0 - 2002-03-15 5 0 - 1991-03-15 5 0 - 1974-03-15 5 0 - 1973-03-15 5 0 - 1946-03-15 5 0 2022-03-15 5 0

They get into all those questions with the online presentation that was just posted a few weeks ago. Things like the increasing summer dewpoints in recent years. Why did the lower resolution global climate models miss this. How some higher resolution models are doing a better job but are not perfect. Future areas of research to include increasing heavy snowfall and rainfall. We have been noticing these changes. It’s also interesting how many of the storms correct further north in time. Plus week 2 model forecast cool downs that trend less impressive the closer in time the models get. With 7 warm winters in a row, seasonal forecasts need to include this new data. There have been plenty of outlets that have been too cold with nearly all their winter forecasts since 15-16. So they owe it to their clients to absorb the presentation and correct their seasonal forecasts so their clients can make better decisions.

They already have acknowledged that it has been increasing and the NE Coast is one of the fastest warming areas of the planet. But the climate models aren’t good enough to show it. So they are looking for theories like AMOC slow down and more +NAO. But we have seen the feature with a -AO like last winter with the south based blocking. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01159-7 The northeastern United States (NEUS) and the adjacent Northwest Atlantic Shelf (NWS) have emerged as warming hotspots, but the connection between them remains unexplored. Here we use gridded observational and reanalysis datasets to show that the twentieth-century surface air temperature increase along the coastal NEUS is exceptional on the continental and hemispheric scale and is induced by a combination of two factors: the sea surface temperature (SST) increase in the NWS associated with a weakening Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and atmospheric circulation changes associated with a more persistent positive North Atlantic Oscillation. These connections are important because AMOC slowdown and NWS warming are projected to continue. A survey of climate model simulations indicates that realistic SST representation at high spatial resolution might be a minimum requirement to capture the observed pattern of coastal warming, suggesting that prior projection-based assessments may not have captured key features in this populous region.

Could be another active hurricane season with a continuing La Niña background state and that record warm pool off the East Coast.

It’s possible with this persistent La Niña background state since 16-17. Very hard for El Niño’s to get going and couple with the record SSTs near the Maritime Continent. These impressive MJO events just keep reinforcing the La Niña. Nice discussion from the CPC: • The MJO has shown better signs of organization, which is reflected in the observational RMM index and upper-level velocity potential anomalies depicting the leading edge of the main convective envelope shifting eastward over Africa and the western Indian Ocean during the past week. • There is good agreement in the dynamical models favoring continued eastward propagation of the MJO across the Indian Ocean and into the Maritime Continent during the next two weeks. Several ensemble members suggest the possible development of a high amplitude event. • The enhanced phase of the MJO, as well as predicted Kelvin and Rossby wave activity, is expected to increase chances for tropical cyclone formation mainly over the Indian Ocean during the next two weeks. • The potential for the MJO to constructively interfere with the low frequency footprint would favor an extratropical response typical of La Niña, yielding warmer than normal temperatures across eastern North America later in March.

Warm and wet 2nd half of March on the EPS. March 14-21 temperature departures March 21-28 temperature departures March 21-28 rainfall departures

My all-time favorite late season blizzard.

Sometimes we can have both.

The December 2015 extreme +13.3 departure marked the shift to much warmer winters. This is the first 7 year run of above average winter temperatures in our area. The SE Ridge has never been this strong for such an extended period of time.

The first half of March may go into the record books for the warmest -EPO SE Ridge pattern for this time of year.

New all-time record low pressure for one town in NL.