bluewave

April 1982 was the latest 21° low and 30° low max on record for NYC. It was a 100 year event for the colder climate of that time. So in our warmer climate, we haven’t seen anything close to that type of April blizzard or cold. The latest highs in the 30s was 4-29-1874. Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 1982 04-07 (1982) 21 12-09 (1982) 19 245 1881 04-05 (1881) 21 12-11 (1881) 20 249 1874 04-05 (1874) 20 12-14 (1874) 16 252 1923 04-01 (1923) 12 01-02 (1924) 20 275 1915 03-30 (1915) 21 12-11 (1915) 21 255 First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference 1982 04-07 (1982) 30 12-13 (1982) 24 249 1881 04-05 (1881) 30 11-25 (1881) 30 233 1887 03-29 (1887) 29 12-01 (1887) 23 246 1894 03-27 (1894) 30 12-28 (1894) 17 275 1878 03-25 (1878) 30 12-24 (1878) 22 273 First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference 1874 04-29 (1874) 38 11-13 (1874) 36 197 1904 04-20 (1904) 37 11-17 (1904) 38 210 1887 04-18 (1887) 38 11-11 (1887) 39 206 1875 04-18 (1875) 32 11-04 (1875) 39 199 1872 04-16 (1872) 39 11-21 (1872) 37 218 1940 04-13 (1940) 35 11-26 (1940) 35 226 1918 04-12 (1918) 35 11-26 (1918) 39 227 1894 04-11 (1894) 39 11-09 (1894) 37 211 1882 04-11 (1882) 38 11-18 (1882) 34 220 1942 04-10 (1942) 37 11-14 (1942) 32 217 1909 04-10 (1909) 39 11-25 (1909) 39 228 1900 04-10 (1900) 39 11-16 (1900) 39 219 2003 04-09 (2003) 39 12-02 (2003) 36 236 1982 04-09 (1982) 39 12-10 (1982) 35 244

First time that LGA had two record highs during the first week of a March followed by record low tie during the last week. 3/1 71 in 2017 68 in 1972 62 in 2004+ 3/2 67 in 2004 66 in 2017 66 in 1972 3/3 65 in 1967 62 in 1961 60 in 2002 3/4 69 in 1946 65 in 1974 62 in 2008 3/5 72 in 1976 69 in 1964 68 in 1961 3/6 68 in 2022 64 in 1976 62 in 2004 3/7 74 in 2022 69 in 2009 69 in 1987 3/25 18 in 1940 19 in 1956 21 in 1960 3/26 20 in 1960 21 in 1947 25 in 2014+ 3/27 23 in 2014 24 in 1975 25 in 2001+ 3/28 23 in 1982 24 in 2022 24 in 1975 3/29 25 in 2022 25 in 1959 26 in 1943 3/30 23 in 1970 28 in 2008 28 in 1941 3/31 24 in 1964 28 in 1969 28 in 1950

This is the full thread with all the supporting material.

Thursday could be another one of these out of season severe events with a few tornadoes possible for the warm spots around the region that can destabilize enough.

Sure. It must be related to our rapidly warming winters. There were only 3 years between 1950 and 1990 with the coldest NYC annual daily temperature departure occurring in the MAM spring period. But there have been 7 years since 1993. Most of the time the coldest departure happens during the winter. These spring blocking patterns in recent years are also contributing. So while spring has been warming along with winter, the winter warming rate is higher. Plus the February 21 to March 20 high temperature has been rising rapidly since 1991 while the low between March 21 and April 20 has been slowly declining. So a pattern that supports early blooms and the potential to still get hard freezes. This hard freeze happened following a top 10 warmest March 1 to 27. All years in NYC with coldest annual temperature departure occurring during the spring since 1950 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Avg Temperature Departure 2022-03-28 -18.6 2022-01-15 -17.9 2022-01-21 -15.1 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Avg Temperature Departure 2021-05-30 -18.0 2021-05-29 -17.7 2021-04-02 -14.9 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Avg Temperature Departure 2020-05-09 -20.4 2020-05-08 -14.6 2020-11-18 -14.2 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Avg Temperature Departure 2007-03-06 -24.0 2007-03-07 -22.7 2007-02-05 -21.2 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Avg Temperature Departure 2002-03-22 -17.0 2002-12-09 -16.4 2002-12-04 -16.3 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Avg Temperature Departure 1998-03-12 -16.5 1998-03-11 -14.7 1998-12-31 -14.4 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Avg Temperature Departure 1993-03-18 -22.2 1993-12-27 -21.2 1993-03-19 -19.0 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Avg Temperature Departure 1978-03-05 -18.7 1978-02-04 -18.5 1978-02-05 -18.2 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Avg Temperature Departure 1967-03-18 -28.2 1967-03-19 -25.5 1967-03-17 -23.4 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Avg Temperature Departure 1956-03-25 -19.5 1956-03-19 -19.0 1956-07-06 -18.1 1956-03-18 -17.7

If the NYC -18.6 departure can hold through next fall and early winter, then it will be the 3rd year in a row with the coldest daily temperature departure occurring in the spring. The coldest annual departure normally happens during the winter. So this could be a first for 3 consecutive years in the spring if it holds. Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Avg Temperature Departure 2022-03-28 -18.6 2022-01-15 -17.9 2022-01-21 -15.1 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Avg Temperature Departure 2021-05-30 -18.0 2021-05-29 -17.7 2021-04-02 -14.9 Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Avg Temperature Departure 2020-05-09 -20.4 2020-05-08 -14.6 2020-11-18 -14.2

Yesterday was the 2nd latest date at LGA that the high didn’t get over freezing. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 730 PM EDT TUE MAR 28 2022 ...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT LAGUARDIA NY... A RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 32 WAS SET AT LAGUARDIA NY TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 36 SET IN 1966. 3/25 32 in 1940 34 in 1974 34 in 1956 3/26 34 in 1947 35 in 2014 36 in 1971 3/27 36 in 1955 39 in 1982 39 in 1975+ 3/28 32 in 2022 36 in 1966 38 in 1959 3/29 34 in 1974 35 in 1984 40 in 1965+ 3/30 34 in 1970 39 in 1941 40 in 1990+ 3/31 36 in 1970 36 in 1969 37 in 1964 4/1 42 in 2001 43 in 1964 44 in 2011+ 4/2 39 in 2021 40 in 1993 43 in 2018 4/3 39 in 1978 43 in 1962 43 in 1943 4/4 36 in 1975 41 in 1972 42 in 1944 4/5 38 in 1995 39 in 1944 41 in 1975 4/6 40 in 1982 41 in 1975 42 in 1971+ 4/7 30 in 1982 37 in 2003 39 in 1967 4/8 38 in 2003 39 in 1972 39 in 1956

The storm with the severe potential on Thursday may have near record low pressure for March in parts of Wisconsin and Michigan.

The latest EPS says it will take time for the blocking pattern to relax. Has a brief warm up with severe thunderstorm potential this Thursday. Then below normal temperatures and blocking continues into April. Getting some hints that that a warmer SE Ridge pattern returns around April 12th March 28th to April 4th April 4th to 11th Warmer SE Ridge pattern returns for the 12th

We need some type of extreme blocking these days to make a run on record lows.

This is the coldest Arctic outbreak following 4 days reaching 70° at Newark by March 27th. The previous record was a low of 26° set in 2016. Newark dropped to 23° this morning for the first time following such a warm start to spring through the 27th. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Mar 27 Lowest Temperature after Mar 27 1 2012-03-27 8 38 2 1946-03-27 6 32 - 1945-03-27 6 33 3 2020-03-27 5 32 4 2022-03-27 4 23 - 2016-03-27 4 26 - 1990-03-27 4 28 - 1987-03-27 4 31

Locally 3” of snow with that streamer stalled in place over CT. Be interesting to see how much Eastern LI has picked up. That band has been very persistent.

Looks like the big weather swings will continue. Euro has low 20s around NYC Monday and Tuesday mornings. Quick rebound back to near 70° on Thursday. The next storm and cold front may be accompanied by an early season severe thunderstorm outbreak later Thursday. A high shear and low CAPE event with the potential for embedded spin ups. Then a return to colder to start April but not as cold as the next few days.

One part of our warming climate is that the highest temperature is rising rapidly from Feb 21 to March 20. But the coldest temperature from Mar 21 to Apr 20 has been slowly declining since 1991. So this allows earlier spring blooms to be followed by hard freezes. Probably is related to all this spring blocking following early starts to spring.

This will be an unprecedented Arctic outbreak following 4 days reaching 70° at Newark by March 27th. The previous record was a low of 26° set recently in 2016. Model forecasts have temperatures dropping to the low 20s at Newark. This early warm up allowed many trees to bloom several weeks ahead of schedule. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Jan 1 to Mar 27 Lowest Temperature after Mar 27 1 2012-03-27 8 38 2 1946-03-27 6 32 - 1945-03-27 6 33 3 2020-03-27 5 32 4 2022-03-27 4 ? - 2016-03-27 4 26 - 1990-03-27 4 28 - 1987-03-27 4 31

Yeah, that was our last out of season hailstorm like today. So now we have a significant March hailstorm following one in November. Parts of CT had enough hail accumulation to cause spin outs.

November and March are becoming big hail months for our area with these record lapse rates.

Yeah, it was part of the final warming event and record Scandinavian Ridge buckling the flow. The EPS has the record cold potential into early next week with the strong blocking. Weaker blocking and cold during the first week of April. Then a lingering Northeast trough at the end of the run on the 10th.

While record warmth has become the norm around here, Monday into Tuesday will be one of those rare chances for record cold. We usually don’t see this type of unmodified Arctic airmass directly from near the North Pole. The 850 mb temperatures will be among the lowest on record since 1979 for this time of year.

Small hail or graupel possible today with some of the steepest lapse rates we have ever seen here from the surface to 500 mb. Very unusual looking soundings for this part of the country. Could also be some thunder with the stronger cells. Then snow squalls possible with the Arctic front later tomorrow.

It will be interesting to see if we get our 8th warmer than average winter in a row for 22-23. 10-11 was our last cold La Niña winter. Most of them have been warmer than average. Warmer La Niña winters since 95-96 98-99 99-00 05-06 07-08 11-12 16-17 17-18 20-21 21-22 Colder than average La Ninas 95-96 00-01 08-09 10-11

But we need an El Niño for a new record.

It will be interesting to see if the La Niña continues to get stronger in April. The blocking pattern to end March and start April matches the La Niña composites. It’s one of the few times of the year when a La Niña can be colder than average here. So we’ll get near record Arctic cold here early next week. While the Arctic air quickly moderates to start April, the EPS still has a trough near the Northeast. The La Niña composite for April has a cooler Northeast trough. So we’ll have to wait and see if the EPS continues the cooler than a average temperature beyond the start of April. Near record Arctic cold early next week Top 10 warmest March through the 25th fits the warming background pattern and La Niña. April La Niña composite is cooler….How long will the pattern last?

Frosts yes, but temperatures below 25° not ideal. https://www.chicagotribune.com/lifestyles/home-and-garden/ct-home-0406-garden-qa-20170407-story.html

All the local grocery stores and garden centers already have out the annual flowering plants like pansies and petunias. Several people around here have the flowering baskets in front of their houses. So they will all have to be taken in.