bluewave

The Dust Bowl was an early example of humans altering the Great Plains climate through land degradation. We had a big hand in the magnitude of the record heat. Now we are cooling the region through our farming practices. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16676-w The severe drought of the 1930s Dust Bowl decade coincided with record-breaking summer heatwaves that contributed to the socio-economic and ecological disaster over North America’s Great Plains. It remains unresolved to what extent these exceptional heatwaves, hotter than in historically forced coupled climate model simulations, were forced by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and exacerbated through human-induced deterioration of land cover. Here we show, using an atmospheric-only model, that anomalously warm North Atlantic SSTs enhance heatwave activity through an association with drier spring conditions resulting from weaker moisture transport. Model devegetation simulations, that represent the wide-spread exposure of bare soil in the 1930s, suggest human activity fueled stronger and more frequent heatwaves through greater evaporative drying in the warmer months. This study highlights the potential for the amplification of naturally occurring extreme events like droughts by vegetation feedbacks to create more extreme heatwaves in a warmer world. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/america-s-corn-belt-making-its-own-weather The Great Plains of the central United States—the Corn Belt—is one of the most fertile regions on Earth, producing more than 10 billion bushels of corn each year. It’s also home to some mysterious weather: Whereas the rest of the world has warmed, the region’s summer temperatures have dropped as much as a full degree Celsius, and rainfall has increased up to 35%, the largest spike anywhere in the world. The culprit, according to a new study, isn’t greenhouse gas emissions or sea surface temperature—it’s the corn itself. This is the first time anyone has examined regional climate change in the central United States by directly comparing the influence of greenhouse gas emissions to agriculture, says Nathan Mueller, an earth systems scientist at the University of California (UC), Irvine, who was not involved with this study. It’s important to understand how agricultural activity can have “surprisingly strong” impacts on climate change, he says.

Boston tied their all -time June maximum temperature. Newark tied for the second day in a row. LGA missed by 1°. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA 0320 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2021 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT BOSTON MA... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 100 FOR BOSTON MA TODAY JUN 30TH. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 95 SET IN 1945. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 0444 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2021 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT NEWARK NJ... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 102 WAS SET AT NEWARK NJ TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 99 SET IN 1964. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 0440 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2021 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT LAGUARDIA NY... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 100 WAS SET AT LAGUARDIA NY TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 97 SET IN 1964.

100° now at LGA with the more SW flow. 30 Jun 3:51 pm 100 65 32 SW

Those ground level stations are located in the local neighborhoods. The Corona Queens station has a high today so far of 101°. It’s avoiding the breeze of the water that is currently keeping LGA cooler.

We came close to the June all-time warmest 850 mb temperature on a 12z sounding today.

At least the day 15 EPS had the general theme of a ridge near the NW and NE correct. But we have seen how the magnitude of these ridges have been beating expectations. The models usually need to get to under 168 hrs to have a clue of how amplified the ridges will be. So the record breaking nature of this event really snuck up on the models in their better range.

The new NYC micronet is proving to be a valuable resource. We continue to see other stations in Queens with warmer high temperatures than LGA. The lows all stayed at 80° or above. LGA…………….…….98…81 Astoria………….….99…81 Corona……………..100..80 Queensbridge…..99…80

We tied two June monthly all-time heat records yesterday. The 102° at Newark was the June record high temperature. The 77° low at White Plains was the warmest low for June. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 102 1 - 2011 102 0 - 1994 102 0 - 1993 102 0 - 1952 102 0 - 1943 102 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 77 1 - 1991 77 2 3 1984 75 0 - 1975 75 0 - 1952 75 0

Christopher Burt also did an analysis on the Oregon record high temperature. https://web.archive.org/web/20151012131142/http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=19 OREGON RECORD HIGH TEMPERATUREThe record high for the state of Oregon has long been accepted as 119°F at Pendleton on Aug. 10, 1898. The NCDC site also mentions a similar reading at Prineville on July 29, 1898). First off, the Prineville reading can be dismissed immediately as unbelievable. Prineville is located in the center of the state near Redmond and Bend at an altitude of 2,860’. It is not a particularly warm location and its hottest temperature in modern records is just 107°F. There were many suspicious temperatures from Prineville during the summer of 1898.The Pendleton reading is more difficult to dismiss. Pendleton is located on a river plain about 30 miles south of the Columbia River. This valley is the hottest area in the state with 100°F+ temperatures common every summer. An undisputed temperature of 117°F has been measured at nearby Umatilla, Oregon on July 27, 1939. The problem with the Pendleton reading is that it was an estimated not measured reading and it would seem that estimated temperatures should probably not be considered official, especially for something as significant as a state weather record.According to the newspaper East Oregonian a report on Aug. 11, 1898 stated “…the government thermometer is only calculated to 115°, so that the 4° indicated above that had to be measured (estimated) by an observer.” This story is recounted in The Oregon Weather Book: A State of Extremes (p.64) by George H. Taylor and Raymond R. Hatton, Oregon State University Press, 1999.

RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 305 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2021 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT NEWARK NJ... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 102 WAS SET AT NEWARK NJ TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 100 SET IN 1934 AND 1959. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED SHOULD THE HIGH TEMPERATURE CLIMB ANY HIGHER.

The 102° at Newark ties the June all-time high temperature. 29 Jun 2:40 pm 102 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2011 102 0 - 1994 102 0 - 1993 102 0 - 1952 102 0 - 1943 102 0 2021 102 0

99..72…109….on the 5 minute update. 29 Jun 1:05 pm 99 72

98°at Newark. 29 Jun 12:51 pm 98

97° now at Newark. 29 Jun 12:05 pm 97

Newark at 95° now. 29 Jun 11:20 am 95 72 47 W 5

Newark and Corona are 93° now.

Already 92° in Corona Queens. https://www2.nysmesonet.org/networks/nyc

This tweet makes a very good point. We probably need to be thinking more about nonlinear and threshold effects from climate change. It introduces challenges for adaptation given how we recently passed +1C of warming. The current emissions trajectory puts us on track for the +2C to +3C range by later in the century. These current extremes are difficult enough just passing the +1C threashold.

This is the first June 86° temperature at 8am at Boston Logan. REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA 800 AM EDT TUE JUN 29 2021 NOTE: "FAIR" INDICATES FEW OR NO CLOUDS BELOW 12,000 FEET WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AND/OR OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY. MAZALL-291300- EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BOSTON MOSUNNY 86 72 62 W8 30.16S HX 92 6HR MIN TEMP: 79; 6HR MAX TEMP: 86; https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=153&network=MA_ASOS&zstation=BOS&month=jun&var=max_tmpf&dpi=100&_fmt=png

On track for 100 today at the local warm spots. The lows at EWR and LGA were near the all-time June record warmest. With low 80s already by 8am, somebody may go a little over 100° to challenge the all-time June monthly high temperature. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 80 0 2 2012 79 0 - 2005 79 0 - 1994 79 0 - 1959 79 0 - 1952 79 0 2021 79 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1952 84 0 2 1991 81 0 2021 81 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2011 102 0 - 1994 102 0 - 1993 102 0 - 1952 102 0 - 1943 102 0 2 1988 101 0 - 1966 101 0 3 1959 100 0 - 1953 100 0 - 1934 100 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2017 101 0 - 1952 101 0 2 2008 100 0

This was the strongest 500 mb ridge on record for the month of a June in our area. The 597 dm height was also very close to the all-time record for the entire summer. So a continuation of the extreme WAR pattern of recent years. But the February 2018 record that produced the 80° all-time winter and February record high is still the greatest excursion from climo. From February 2018

The temperature dropped with the more southerly flow and clouds. It reached 99° was when the flow went more westerly. ASOS software weeds out any artificial temperature spikes due to non meteorological factors. https://www.weather.gov/media/owlie/2018-ASOS.pdf There are also some things that you would think affect the readings but generally don’t, such as jet exhaust. There are algorithms (computer code) in ASOS that take these quick fluctuations into account. These algorithms have been developed and tested to provide the most accurate and sensible data for a given sensor by using sampling over a period of time and other methods proven to weed out spikes in the sensor data that are caused by non-meteorological influences. 28 Jun 4:00 pm 97 70 42 SSW 14 10.00 SCT060 30.14 30.16 28 Jun 3:55 pm 99 68 37 WSW 14 10.00 SCT060 30.14 30.16 28 Jun 3:51 pm 99 69 38 WSW 15G22 10.00 SCT055 30.14 1021.3 30.16 28 Jun 3:50 pm 99 70 40 WSW 16 10.00 SCT050,SCT075 30.14 30.16 28 Jun 3:45 pm 99 68 37 SW 13 10.00 SCT050,SCT075 30.14 30.16 28 Jun 3:40 pm 99 70 40 SW 15 10.00 SCT050,SCT075 30.14 30.16 28 Jun 3:35 pm 99 68 37 SW 12 10.00 SCT050,SCT075 30.14 30.16 28 Jun 3:30 pm 97 72 45 SW 14G22 10.00 SCT050,SCT075 30.14 30.16 28 Jun 3:25 pm 99 70 40 SSW 16 10.00 SCT050,SCT075 30.15 30.17 28 Jun 3:20 pm 99 70 40 WSW 15 10.00 SCT050,SCT075 30.14 30.16 28 Jun 3:15 pm 99 70 40 SW 10 10.00 SCT050,SCT075 30.15 30.17 28 Jun 3:10 pm 97 70 42 WSW 9 10.00 SCT050,SCT075 30.15 30.17 28 Jun 3:05 pm 97 70 42 SW 16 10.00 SCT050,SCT075 30.15 30.17 28 Jun 3:00 pm 95 70 44 WSW 13 10.00 SCT050,SCT075 30.15 30.17 28 Jun 2:55 pm 95 70 44 SSW 13 10.00 SCT050,SCT075 30.15 30.17 28 Jun 2:51 pm 94 70 46 7G18 10.00 SCT050,SCT075,SCT250 30.15 1021.6 30.17