bluewave

One of the more impressive records around the region with the heatwave so far. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON, NY 204 PM EDT MON JUN 28 2021 ...RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT SYRACUSE NY FOR JUNE 27TH... A RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 78 WAS SET AT SYRACUSE NY YESTERDAY. THIS IS THE ALL TIME WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE AT SYRACUSE. THE LOW TEMPERATURE TODAY 6/28 SO FAR IS 81 DEGREES. IF THE TEMPERATURE DOES NOT FALL BELOW 81 DEGREES BY MIDNIGHT THAT WOULD TIE THE ALL TIME WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE SET BACK ON JULY 9TH THROUGH 11TH IN 1936.

The Euro and EPS have the 2.00”+ PWAT heavy tropical convection on Thursday and Friday. There is a bit of a divergence on Saturday. The OP has the front coming through Saturday morning with closed low pop up convection in the afternoon. The EPS hods the UL back to the west a little longer with a slightly stronger WAR. With a little luck, the WAR will weaken enough so that the 4th and 5th are the best days of the extended weekend.

The Hansen, Sato, and Ruedy paper expanded on the changing nature of these extreme heat events as the climate continues to warm. https://skepticalscience.com/Summary-of-Hansen-Nov-2011.html The New Normal From 1950 to 1980 normal temperatures, cold and hot are all present about 33% of the time as expected. There is little Very Hot or Very Cold. The Nauties are completely different. Normal and Cold have dropped to 20 and 15% respectively and Hot has risen to about 66%. In 2010, Very Hot (+2σ) occurred over 31% of the Earths surface and Extremely Hot (+3σ) occurred over 13% of the Earth’s surface, while the corresponding Very Cold and Extremely Cold were 1% and 0%. Hansen says: Looking at Figure 3, we see in 2010 that Moscow was in the middle of a large black spot of +3σ, while in 2011 Texas was in the middle of a similar spot. Europe had its time in the heat in 2003. All these outliers were absent from 1950-1980. People who continue to deny that extreme heat is caused by AGW need to look carefully at these graphs. These extreme weather events were not normal; they are directly caused by AGW. They are becoming normal now. In 2010, 17% of the world’s land area was Extremely Hot (data not shown). In the 1960s there were virtually zero Extremely Hot areas.

Miami dew points into New England as this WAR really means business. SMITHFIELD SUNNY 88 79 74 VRB7 30.19S HX 103 BEVERLY SUNNY 91 76 61 VRB7 30.12S HX 103

Models may be underestimating high temperature potential next several days around the region.The WAR is now going stronger than forecast. We may approach all-time June 500 mb heights.

They already set the June all-time daily warmest minimum yesterday. Time Series Summary for SYRACUSE HANCOCK INTL AP, NY - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 78 3 2 1999 77 0 3 2008 75 0

Newark has a shot at the all-time June 95° day record. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Missing Count 1 1943 7 0 2 1988 6 0 - 1984 6 0 - 1945 6 0 3 2012 5 0 - 1993 5 0 - 2021 5 3

Newark can get close to 100° in coming days if it beats model guidance by as much as today. TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 95 251 PM 101 1966 85 10 86 MINIMUM 74 433 AM 52 1940 67 7 68 AVERAGE 85 76 9 77

The average of all the airports and COOPs in the NY Coastal Climate division came in at 2nd place behind 2010. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/3004/tavg/3/8/1895-2021?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010 201006 - 201008 75.2°F 126 3.5°F 202006 - 202008 74.5°F 125 2.8°F 201606 - 201608 74.2°F 124 2.5°F 200506 - 200508 73.9°F 123 2.2°F 201106 - 201108 73.9°F 123 2.2°F 199906 - 199908 73.7°F 121 2.0°F 201206 - 201208 73.4°F 120 1.7°F 201806 - 201808 73.4°F 120 1.7°F 201906 - 201908 73.2°F 118 1.5°F 201506 - 201508 73.1°F 117 1.4°F 194906 - 194908 73.0°F 116 1.3°F 200606 - 200608 73.0°F 116 1.3°F 200206 - 200208 72.9°F 114 1.2°F 201306 - 201308 72.9°F 114 1.2°F

July 2020 at LGA doubled the number of 95 degree days that they had in 2010. Only July 2011 had more 95° days at Newark. Our airport stations are right in the water. So they are prone to local sea breezes. The dominant westerly flow in 2011shut down the Newark bay breeze so they set a record of 13 days above 95° that July. The ASOS at LGA is right on the water which gets cooling breezes with W to NW dry heat flow. Last summer was the opposite. Newark had SSE bay breezes while LGA got more hot S to SSW flow. Since LGA is North Shore location, it was much warmer than JFK which had cooling southerly sea breezes. That S to SW flow really heats up at LGA as it comes across Brooklyn and Queens and slightly downslopes off the moraine. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Missing Count 1 2020 12 0 2 1999 11 0 3 2012 7 0 - 1955 7 0 4 2013 6 0 - 2010 6 0 - 2002 6 0 - 1991 6 0 - 1966 6 0 5 2019 5 0 - 1994 5 0 - 1977 5 0 - 1952 5 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Missing Count 1 2011 13 0 2 1993 12 0 3 2012 11 0 - 2010 11 0 4 2002 10 0 5 1999 9 0 - 1988 9 0 - 1966 9 0 - 1955 9 0

The average high temperature last summer at LGA just edged ahead of 2010 by a few tenths of a degree. LGA did better in 95°and 88° days than 2010. So it was able to overcome the 90° day deficit. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 86.9 0 2 2010 86.7 0 3 2016 86.3 0 4 1994 85.6 0 5 2005 85.3 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Missing Count 1 1955 14 0 2 2020 13 0 - 1999 13 0 3 2012 11 0 4 2010 10 0 - 1995 10 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 88 Missing Count 1 2020 50 0 2 2010 48 0 3 1994 38 0 4 2019 37 0 - 2016 37 0 - 2002 37 0 5 2018 36 0

We are in new territory with the magnitude of these simultaneous PACNW and NE ridge amplifications. The PACNW and SW Canada have all-time heat and 500mb heights. The 500mb heights for us are near the highest for the month of June. Pretty extreme to be happening at the same time.

The most impressive calendar day all-time warm season record for the NE in recent years may have been the 80° low in BTV.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/12/191209112147.htm In a new study published today in Nature Climate Change, scientists show how specific wave patterns in the jet stream strongly increase the chance of co-occurring heatwaves in major food producing regions of Northern America, Western Europe and Asia. Their research finds that these simultaneous heatwaves significantly reduce crop production across those regions, creating the risk of multiple harvest failures and other far-reaching societal consequences, including social unrest. Lead author, Dr Kai Kornhuber from the University of Oxford's Department of Physics and Colombia University's Earth Institute, said: "Co-occurring heatwaves will become more severe in the coming decades if greenhouse gases are not mitigated. In an interconnected world, this can lead to food price spikes and have impacts on food availability even in remote regions not directly affected by heatwaves. "We found a 20-fold increase in the risk of simultaneous heatwaves in major crop producing regions when these global scale wind patterns are in place. Until now this was an underexplored vulnerability in the food system. We have found that during these events there actually is a global structure in the otherwise quite chaotic circulation. The bell can ring in multiple regions at once and the impacts of those specific interconnections were not quantified previously." Western North America, Western Europe and the Caspian Sea region are particularly susceptible to these atmospheric patterns that get heat and drought locked into one place simultaneously where they then affect crops production yields. Dr Dim Coumou, co-author from the Institute for Environmental Studies at VU Amsterdam, said: "Normally low harvests in one region are expected to be balanced out by good harvests elsewhere but these waves can cause reduced harvests in several important breadbaskets simultaneously, creating risks for global food production." Dr Elisabeth Vogel, co-author from Melbourne University, said: "During years in which two or more summer weeks featured the amplified wave pattern, cereal crop production was reduced by more than 10% in individual regions, and by 4% when averaged across all crop regions affected by the pattern." Dr Radley Horton, co-author from the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Colombia University, said: "If climate models are unable to reproduce these wave patterns, risk managers such as reinsurers and food security experts may face a blind spot when assessing how simultaneous heat waves and their impacts could change in a warming climate." The scientists conclude that a thorough understanding of what drives this jet stream behaviour could ultimately improve seasonal predictions of agricultural production at the global scale and inform risk assessments of harvest failures across multiple food-producing regions. https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/10/climate-change-and-extreme-summer-weather-events-the-future-is-still-in-our-hands/ In a follow-up article just published in the AAAS journal Science Advances, we look at future projections of QRA using state-of-the-art climate model simulations. It is important to note that that one cannot directly analyze QRA behavior in a climate model simulation for technical reasons. Most climate models are run at grid resolutions of a degree in latitude or more. The physics that characterizes QRA behavior of Rossby Waves faces a stiff challenge when it comes to climate models because it involves the second mathematical derivative of the jet stream wind with respect to latitude. Errors increase dramatically when you calculate a numerical first derivative from gridded fields and even more so when you calculate a second derivative. Our calculations show that the critical term mentioned above suffers from an average climate model error of more than 300% relative to observations. By contrast, the average error of the models is less than a percent when it comes to latitudinal temperature averages and still only about 30% when it comes to the latitudinal derivative of temperature. That last quantity is especially relevant because QRA events have been shown to have a well-defined signature in terms of the latitudinal variation in temperature in the lower atmosphere. Through a well-established meteorological relationship known as the thermal wind, the magnitude of the jet stream winds is in fact largely determined by the average of that quantity over the lower atmosphere. And as we have seen above, this quantity is well captured by the models (in large part because the change in temperature with latitude and how it responds to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations depends on physics that are well understood and well represented by the climate models). These findings, incidentally have broader implications. First of all, climate model-based studies used to assess the degree to which current extreme weather events can be attributed to climate change are likely underestimating the climate change influence. One model-based study for example suggested that climate change only doubled the likelihood of the extreme European heat wave this summer. As I commented at the time, that estimate is likely too low for it doesn’t account for the role that we happen to know, in this case, that QRA played in that event. Similarly, climate models used to project future changes in extreme weather behavior likely underestimate the impact that future climate changes could have on the incidence of persistent summer weather extremes like those we witnessed this past summer.

Newark is in track for its 2nd top 10 warmest June in a row. The coming heatwave will boost the ranking to potentially top 5. Looks like Boston will make a run on the #1 spot. So a continuation of the warmest summer departures and rankings going to our north in recent years. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1994 77.8 0 2 2010 76.2 0 3 1993 75.8 0 4 1943 75.4 0 5 2008 75.3 0 6 1984 75.0 0 7 1971 74.8 0 8 2005 74.6 0 - 1981 74.6 0 - 1973 74.6 0 9 2011 74.5 0 10 2021 74.4 6 - 2020 74.4 0 - 1987 74.4 0 Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1976 73.4 0 2 2021 72.8 6 3 1930 72.4 0 4 1994 71.9 0 5 1949 71.6 0 6 1957 71.3 0 7 2001 71.1 0 - 1943 71.1 0 8 1999 71.0 0 9 1925 70.9 0 10 1983 70.7 0 - 1981 70.7 0

If we can pull off upper 90s to near 100° at the warm spots like Newark, then it will be a first when Seattle is so hot. Seattle 100° days and Newark high temperature Downtown Seattle…..6-9-55…..100°……Newark….58° Downtown Seattle…..7-16-41….100°…..Newark…77° Sea Tac…………………….7-20-94…..100°….Newark….94° Sea Tac…………………….7-29-09……103°….Newark…..85°

I believe this is the first time we had 594+ dm ridges in the PAC NW and NE at the same time. Notice how those values for either location are outside the 30 year climo. So a continuation of the unusual wavelength patterns that have become more common since 2010.

Our area may be able to challenge the June 500mb height record next week. Looks like the OKX record for June is near 595 dm. The PAC NW all-time record could fall with heights above 597 dm. It appears that these record breaking ridges that get stuck in place are related to areas of marine heatwaves and drought on land. We have seen frequent near to record WAR amplifications near the Northeast in recent years with the record SSTs east of New England. The Western US has also experienced record ridging in association with the warm blob off the West Coast and historic drought conditions. So these features seem to go together.

This higher humidity is part of our shift to a humid subtropical climate. 60-80 days a year with 70° dew points used to be normal for the Delmarva to Southern NJ. Now it has moved up to the NYC area.

This June is an unusual one for front-loaded heat.The 97° back on June 6th at Newark will be the max for the month. The remainder of the month will feature a Great Lakes Trough squeezed between the WAR and the Western Ridge.

Some of the long range climate models have the current megadrought out West expanding eastward to the Plains over this century. So if that projection is correct, then it would put quite a stress on US agriculture. A gradual desertification of the Plains would probably mean more frequent 100° days for our area in the summer. https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/1/e1400082

Yeah, the Dust Bowl was an early example of humans altering the Great Plains climate through land degradation. We had a big hand in the magnitude of the record heat. Now we are cooling the region through our farming practices. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16676-w Here we show, using an atmospheric-only model, that anomalously warm North Atlantic SSTs enhance heatwave activity through an association with drier spring conditions resulting from weaker moisture transport. Model devegetation simulations, that represent the wide-spread exposure of bare soil in the 1930s, suggest human activity fueled stronger and more frequent heatwaves through greater evaporative drying in the warmer months. This study highlights the potential for the amplification of naturally occurring extreme events like droughts by vegetation feedbacks to create more extreme heatwaves in a warmer world. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/america-s-corn-belt-making-its-own-weather The Great Plains of the central United States—the Corn Belt—is one of the most fertile regions on Earth, producing more than 10 billion bushels of corn each year. It’s also home to some mysterious weather: Whereas the rest of the world has warmed, the region’s summer temperatures have dropped as much as a full degree Celsius, and rainfall has increased up to 35%, the largest spike anywhere in the world. The culprit, according to a new study, isn’t greenhouse gas emissions or sea surface temperature—it’s the corn itself. This is the first time anyone has examined regional climate change in the central United States by directly comparing the influence of greenhouse gas emissions to agriculture, says Nathan Mueller, an earth systems scientist at the University of California (UC), Irvine, who was not involved with this study. It’s important to understand how agricultural activity can have “surprisingly strong” impacts on climate change, he says.