bluewave

We are in the top 5 for number of days in February with at least 1” of snow on the ground. This is a first for a moderate La Niña. The other years were neutral or El Niño’s. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Snow Depth >= 1 1 1936 29 2 2015 28 3 1978 23 4 2014 22 - 2003 22 5 1969 20 5 2021 20 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Snow Depth >= 1 1 2015 28 2 1978 22 3 2014 21 4 2021 20 5 2005 19

Yeah, the bar was lower during those recent years that you posted when March was the snowiest month. It will be interesting to see how we do this March. I added the March snowfall in NYC following a 20”+ Februaries since 1950. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Feb Mar 2010 36.9 T 2014 29.0 0.1 2006 26.9 1.3 1994 26.4 8.1 2003 26.1 3.5 2021 25.6 M 1967 23.6 17.4 1978 23.0 6.8 1983 21.5 T 1996 21.2 13.2 1979 20.1 T

It’s pretty tough to have the snowiest month in March when when one of the winter months has 20”+.

March is one of those months the that snowfall in NYC is really sensitive to temperature. All the above normal snowfall Marches in NYC since 2010 have had a cold monthly temperature departure. The milder Marches had below normal snowfall.

50° is about the warmest that we can do over the next week. So EWR should remain near the top 5 lowest max temperature for Jan and Feb. We’ll have to see if Newark can sneak in higher than 53° before the end of the month. Very odd to have such a low maximum temperature with a mild average DJF above freezing. KEWR GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 2/20/2021 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 SAT 20| SUN 21| MON 22| TUE 23| WED 24| THU 25| FRI 26| SAT 27 CLIMO X/N 34| 19 38| 24 41| 33 45| 36 50| 36 44| 25 38| 21 41 27 45 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Jan 1 to Feb 28 DJF Average Temperature 1 1969-02-28 48 31.7° 2 1941-02-28 50 32.1° 3 1968-02-29 51 32.0° - 1963-02-28 51 29.4° 4 2003-02-28 52 30.7° 5 2021-02-28 53 34.4°

This has been the one of the most tucked in storm track snowy winters of the last 30 years. Very unusual for NYC not to have 50” when ABE does. So you can see how rare it is to have a snowy season with the storm tracks so close to Southern NJ. Time Series Summary for Allentown Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date ABE Snowfall NYC Snowfall 1 1994-04-30 75.2 53.4 2 1996-04-30 71.4 75.6 3 2014-04-30 68.1 57.4 4 2010-04-30 59.8 51.4 5 2003-04-30 54.4 49.3 6 2021-04-30 53.2 38.2 7 2015-04-30 50.1 50.3

The North Atlantic can influence the Indian Ocean also.

Maybe that’s due to the recent Arctic outbreak occurring in a much warmer would with more available moisture for heavy snowfall.

We were just discussing in the other thread how the strongest Arctic outbreaks have been focused in the Plains recently. Notice how the Plains are one of the few parts of the world that will see a drop in the average temperatures when the new 30 year normals come out. Also matches the warmer temperatures here this week relative to the 1989 and 1899 Arctic outbreaks.

Yeah, Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Ocean warming are all important. We just don’t have the seasonal forecast models that can accurately handle those interactions. Sometimes one model may get a part of the forecast right. But miss other important drivers.

It certainly does make long range seasonal forecasting more interesting. Looks like the oceans have warmed to the point that it’s interfering with the expected ENSO responses. Absent better seasonal models and more computer power, seasonal forecasts will be even more challenging than they were before.

Yeah, such a low maximum temperature for January and February is really out of place. The current max in NYC since January 1st is only 51°. That’s the 4th coldest on record. It would be the coldest max for Jan and Feb with such a mild DJF average temperature. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Jan 1 to Feb 28 DJF average Temperature 1 1969-02-28 48 32.9 2 1941-02-28 49 33.0 3 2003-02-28 50 31.2 - 1968-02-29 50 31.2 4 2021-02-28 51 35.3 - 1963-02-28 51 29.9 - 1920-02-29 51 27.4 - 1895-02-28 51 30.2 5 1908-02-29 52 33.0 - 1879-02-28 52 29.0 6 1958-02-28 53 33.2 - 1923-02-28 53 29.9 - 1905-02-28 53 28.1 - 1901-02-28 53 31.7 - 1899-02-28 53 31.3 - 1881-02-28 53 26.5 - 1871-02-28 53 31.2

Steady light snow now in SW Suffolk with larger flakes and 32°.

The ENSO responses have been all mixed up since the El Niño failed to couple in 18-19. We got more of a Niña-like response that winter. It was followed by a 11-12 raging La Niña-like response during the 19-20 weak El Niño last winter. So I guess it makes sense that we get a more Niño-like response during this moderate La Niña winter. Seems like too many competing SST warm blobs for a coherent ENSO response.

We are on track for our first La Niña February in 30 years with no 60° or warmer days. La Niña years bodied Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 2021 51 10 2020 62 0 2019 68 0 2018 80 0 2017 74 0 2016 64 0 2015 42 0 2014 55 0 2013 57 0 2012 64 0 2011 71 0 2010 50 0 2009 66 0 2008 69 0 2007 51 0 2006 63 0 2005 57 0 2004 62 0 2003 50 0 2002 68 0 2001 61 0 2000 66 0 1999 70 0 1998 60 0 1997 74 0 1996 65 0

I am under those yellows on radar in SW Suffolk and it’s sleet and 32°.

Just caught the NW edge if that band here in SW Suffolk and it was light sleet.

It looks like the models may really struggle with the upcoming pattern. We have a near record -5SD polar vortex sitting in NW Canada. At the same time, there is a strong 50/50 vortex. This goes along with the record snow extent across North America. While the MJO is moving into a less amplified phase, it’s unusually variable for this time of year. Like we have seen this week, the SE Ridge has flexed in this pattern. The end result was one warm mostly rain event and another snowier storm that we saw yesterday. So it’s possible that these dueling influences continue through the rest of the month. Models may not pick up on the details of individual storms until a few days out since one storm may influence the track of another.

The counties in Texas that weren’t part of the state grid had fewer power outages since they winterized their local equipment.

4.3” at JFK brings them to 4th snowiest February at 25.3”. SNOWFALL (IN) TODAY 4.3 R 2.1 2000 0.3 4.0 0.0 MONTH TO DATE 25.3 5.5 19.8 0.0 SINCE DEC 1 33.4 16.5 16.9 3.8 SINCE JUL 1 33.4 16.7 16.7 3.8 SNOW DEPTH 1 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 2003 32.1 0 2 2010 29.6 0 3 1961 25.4 0 4 2021 25.3 0

4pm Central Park 3.2 in 0400 PM 02/18 Official NWS Obs NYC/La Guardia 3.1 in 0400 PM 02/18 Official NWS Obs Newark Airport 4.0 in 0400 PM 02/18 Official NWS Obs

Freezing drizzle glaze on all untreated surfaces here in SW Suffolk and 28°.

NYC enters the top 10 again for snowiest February. This is the 5th top 10 snowiest February since 2003. So we continue with the much snowier pattern than began in 02-03. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 2010 36.9 0 2 2014 29.0 0 3 1934 27.9 0 4 2006 26.9 0 5 1994 26.4 0 6 1926 26.3 0 7 2003 26.1 0 8 1920 25.3 0 - 1899 25.3 0 9 2021 24.4 0 10 1967 23.6 0 SNOWFALL (IN) TODAY 3.2 3.5 1928 0.3 2.9 0.0 MONTH TO DATE 24.4 6.0 18.4 T SINCE DEC 1 37.0 17.8 19.2 4.8 SINCE JUL 1 37.0 18.1 18.9 4.8 SNOW DEPTH 2

That very heavy snow burst got me to 5” here in SW Suffolk.