bluewave

That’s what is was like in the 70s and 80s. Even some of our best snowstorms weren’t forecast the day before. NWP has come a long way since then. I give the NWS plenty of credit for doing their best with the early technology that they had at the time. The Alden Difax model charts were really crude compared to what we have now. I can still remember the familiar NWS voices on NOAA Weather Radio. Took a trip I to to the NWS at 30 Rock back in the 1980s. The weather radar room looked like something out of a 50s sci-fi movie. Outside the room was a big wall full of weather maps. There was a telephone booth-like spot to make the weather radio recordings. Those were the days when the Central Park observations were very high quality. There were no trees blocking the sensors. I believe the NWS staff would walk directly over to the Park for the snowfall measurements. But that all charged when they moved the office out to OKX in the 1990s.

Record high of 67° so far at Newark. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 0437 PM EST SAT DEC 11 2021 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT NEWARK NJ... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 67 WAS SET AT NEWARK NJ TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 65 SET IN 1966 AND 1971.

Record tie for NYC and new record at EWR. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 319 PM EST SAT DEC 11 2021 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT CENTRAL PARK NY... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 64 WAS TIED AT CENTRAL PARK NY TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 64 SET IN 1879. AN UPDATE WILL BE SENT IF A HIGHER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 313 PM EST SAT DEC 11 2021 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT NEWARK NJ... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 66 WAS SET AT NEWARK NJ TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 65 SET IN 1971. AN UPDATE WILL BE SENT IF A HIGHER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED.

Newark just tied the record high. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 241 PM EST SAT DEC 11 2021 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED AT NEWARK NJ... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 65 WAS TIED AT NEWARK NJ TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 65 SET IN 1971. AN UPDATE WILL BE SENT IF A HIGHER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED.

This December has already experienced record warmth across a wide expanse of the US and it’s only the 11th. So I am not sure what you are talking about. Your 60s argument for a few hours makes as much sense saying that last December wasn’t snowy since it only really snowed hard for a day or two.The record warmth this month is a big part of why the tornado devastation occurred. We had a wintertime Jet stream clashing with out of season warmth.

No doubt. Experts that study the MJO interactions for their whole careers acknowledge all the various moving parts involved. Sometimes we get great results and other times we don’t. I certainly hope we can get a MJO 8 to shift our pattern to something better. But at the same time, I realize that there are other factors which have been driving the record Pacific Jet pattern. So I will keep expectations low and hope we can see something better by the end of December and start of January.

You know the WAA is impressive in December when Newark is only 2° under the record high so far with overcast conditions. 11 Dec 12:51 pm 63

Sometimes the models rush things on the RMM charts. The MJO on the VP charts is much slower working across the Pacific. Plus we often see a lag in the 500 mb pattern response.

The NAO is more east based up until near Christmas. So this allows the -PNA to pump the SE Ridge. We hope the GEFS is correct about it pressing more SW after Christmas. That’s what we need to flatten the SE Ridge. But the EPS and GEPS don’t show this pattern near the end of their runs yet like the GEFS does. They are much weaker with the -NAO. Models diverge for after Christmas

All the ensembles continue the strong -PNA pattern until close to Christmas. So this keeps pumping the SE Ridge. Maybe some improvement after Christmas.

All-time December record warmth in the source region for the forecast record highs around the region today.

You know record warmth is in the way across the area today when we get fog this dense in December ahead of the warm front. Farmingdale FOG 48 47 96 E3 29.94F VSB 1/4 MacArthur/ISP FOG 47 47 100 SE3 29.94F VSB 1/4

We would need any potential MJO 8 near the end of December to be accompanied by a SSW for any possible improvements to last. There have plenty of hostile Pacific patterns in recent years. But this one has raised the bar on extremes of the +EPO, -PNA, and Pacific Jet.

All-time December highest temperatures in the source region for the record warmth headed for our area .

I try to stay away from that since it reminds me of the poster from out of town that used to drop in here and weenie all the posts.

Looks like the LLJ really maxes out over Long Island Saturday evening. There will probably be 50 mph + gusts from the tight gradient alone. So we’ll have to watch for convection in the evening that could mix down winds in excess of 60 mph.

I don’t understand what you mean by running around like chicken little. Putting our temperatures in perspective is very important otherwise we just normalize everything away in a few years. That was what the study that I posted earlier discussed. New baselines are deceptive since a +2 to +3 in December today is getting near the top ten warmest. So it could lead some to say that such a small warm departure really isn’t out of the ordinary.

By that logic, the first week of December in 1976 wasn’t really the 2nd coldest on record at Newark. There was only one record cold day out of 7 when the low dropped to 9°. None of the other days had lows in the single digits. So you can see where your line of reasoning leads to.

Your post is a great example of how quickly we normalize the higher temperatures in a warming climate. With the new much warmer 1991-2020 climate normals, all it takes is a +2 to +3 for top 10 monthly warmth in December. So just looking at departures gives the illusion that it really isn’t that warm. https://www.pnas.org/content/116/11/4905

We just had the 10th warmest first week of December from Newark to Islip. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Dec 7 Missing Count 1 1998-12-07 58.4 0 2 1982-12-07 56.8 0 3 2001-12-07 55.5 0 4 1951-12-07 50.6 0 5 1994-12-07 50.1 0 6 1932-12-07 49.1 0 7 2011-12-07 47.6 0 8 2015-12-07 46.8 0 9 1953-12-07 46.4 0 10 2021-12-07 46.2 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Dec 7 Missing Count 1 1998-12-07 55.4 0 2 1982-12-07 52.7 0 3 2001-12-07 51.2 0 4 1994-12-07 46.4 0 5 2011-12-07 45.8 0 6 2015-12-07 45.1 0 7 1972-12-07 44.6 0 8 2013-12-07 44.4 0 9 2017-12-07 43.7 0 10 2021-12-07 43.6 0 - 1999-12-07 43.6 0 - 1993-12-07 43.6 0

Just select the station and time of year. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=76&network=NY_ASOS&station=JFK&season=jul&varname=dwpf&year=1893&w=bar&hours=0-23&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

The 12z EPS keeps the -PNA trough near the West Coast through Dec 24th.This pumps up the SE Ridge.The -EPO ridge is centered too far west near the Aleutians and the -NAO is too far east based near Europe. 12z EPS for 12z Dec 24th

The 850 mb temperatures would support 70° on Saturday in NJ if we can get enough sun.

I don’t think that - EPO or a -NAO will matter for us as long as the the big -PNA trough remains near the West Coast. It keeps pumping the SE Ridge. Maybe the weeklies update later will have some more information. But you can see the latest GEFS is stubbornly holding onto that -PNA trough.

That was related to the tail end of the November phase 5. We are currently getting an interference pattern with the MJO phase 6. So this -PNA is out of place for a La Niña phase 6 composite. That’s why we need to be cautious with any expectations about how a phase 7 may look in late December. Snowman linked to a tweet mentioning the +AAM. That along with the WPAC wave breaks is probably why none of the MJO composites are and exact match right now. https://www.frenchscotpilotweather.com/mjo