bluewave

It’s been a while since we had -20C or colder 850 mb temperatures.

Gorgeous GEM run.

Looks like it will be a good upgrade.

While the blocking has been more south based during December and January, it still was the 3rd greatest number of days with a -AO. So maybe we will see more -AO winters in the coming years? Notice how the previous top years seemed to cluster together with other -AO winters.

We will be fine once the battery range goes up and the charging time goes down. That is probably coming over the next 10 years. It may take 10 years or so to begin to build out the charging infrastructure. I actually test drove an EV. The instant acceleration make you feel like you are driving a rocket ship.The one thing that I really had to get used to was how quiet the car was.

This was one of the latest arrivals of significant Arctic air that we have seen here. 2nd latest 12° at HPN just behind last year. 3rd latest drop below 20° in NYC. The 2nd latest 15° at ISP behind last year. Frost/Freeze Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 2019 03-08 (2019) 12 02-15 (2020) 9 343 2006 01-16 (2006) 11 01-29 (2021) 12 373 Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 1931 02-15 (1931) 16 02-16 (1932) 18 365 2001 02-22 (2001) 17 02-05 (2002) 19 347 2012 01-22 (2012) 18 01-29 (2021) 15 365 Frost/Freeze Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 2019 03-08 (2019) 14 02-15 (2020) 13 343 1994 03-01 (1994) 14 01-29 (2021) 15 333

Yeah, their sightings having been going up in recent years. https://www.ecowatch.com/snowy-owls-climate-change-2623954976.html But sightings further south have become more common in North America in recent winters. As the Ottawa Citizen reported this week, sightings of the charismatic owl have soared in Eastern Ontario for the last six years. This "irruption"—an influx of a species to areas they aren't usually found—could be a sign that there's not enough food for the snowies around their usual home. Because of climate change, the Arctic is warming at twice the rateof the rest of the planet, causing dramatic shifts to ecosystems. This warmth has caused the region to become more green. As a result, rodents have more vegetation to graze on, thus increasing the prey base for snowy owls. This abundance in prey, a bird expert suggested to Ottawa Citizen, has resulted in successful breeding seasons for the snowy owls. But with more owls hunting in the same area, the less successful hunters end up traveling south in search of food. "It could be climate change: The Arctic warming up, more vegetation available, so it's producing more rodents," birder Bruce Di Labio told the Ottawa Citizen. "In turn, the snowy owls are being successful (in breeding) every year." The Audobon Society explains that "it's all about food availability: when the birds' rodent prey base either crashes or is in super-abundance, snowy owls push south in winter."

The most reliable place that I would see them was the Jones Beach West End. They spend the cold season in the dunes around Jones Inlet. Sometimes you get lucky and see them sitting on one of the signs leading into the parking lot. Most of the time you need to scan the dunes and beach with a scope or binoculars to see them. People have been spotting one or two snowy owls down there almost every day this winter.

They are extremely rare in Central Park. But they spend the cold season along the South Shore.

It was a rare treat for the birders in Central Park. Most of the the snowy owls spend the winter along the South Shore barrier islands. I would see them all the time near the Jones Beach West End and sometimes in Lido Beach.

It was good to see people keep their distance.

Who knows what’s normal anymore with our snowfall patterns.

That’s only recent since the 18-19 winter. Most people don’t realize that ISP and other parts of LI did much better in snowfall from 09-10 to 17-18 than NYC did. Long Island P-Types are storm track dependent. We had many storms over this period that were mostly snow.

It seems like the UKMET is one of the more erratic models from run to run with surface low positions that affect us. The only time that I can remember it scoring a coup over the other models was with the 2-5-16 snowstorm that delivered around 10” on parts of Long Island.

It does look like one of those days that struggles to get out of the low 20s during the afternoon. Looks like CAA maxes out from late morning into the early afternoon. Had the timing been 6-12 hrs earlier, NYC could have had a shot at around 10°.

Early snow signal for Central Park?

Friday should be the coldest day in over a year. The last time NYC had a high temperature of 25° or lower was 12-19-19. NYC hasn’t had a low of 15° or colder since 2-15-20. 2019-12-19 25 16 20.5 -15.8 KNYC GFS MOS GUIDANCE 1/28/2021 0000 UTC DT /JAN 28 /JAN 29 /JAN 30 / HR 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 18 00 X/N 34 15 25 14 29 TMP 30 27 26 28 32 31 27 22 19 17 16 19 22 23 22 19 17 16 15 26 28 DPT 17 14 12 10 6 2 0 -3 -5 -5 -5 -6 -6 -4 -3 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 1 2020-02-15 31 14

This will be the 3rd winter in a row when a straight ENSO based seasonal forecast didn’t work out. Competing influences have been the way to go for 18-19,19-20, and 20-21. The previous 3 winters of 15-16, 16-17, and 17-18 were exaggerations or cartoon versions of ENSO climatology. 15-16 had the classic El Niño progression. Historic frontloaded +13.3 warmth followed by one of the best backloaded El Niño snowstorms in late January. 16-17 had the backloaded La Niña record warmth, but great snowstorms throughout. 17-18 had the expected front-loaded La Niña cold and snow through Jan 8th, then the historic backloaded La Niña 80° warmth in February with average temperatures near 40°.

A trough in the Pacific NW would be bad beyond February 2nd. But the trough in the Plains with phase 7 would be mixed. We would get the occasional cutter. But they could pull in colder air from the Plains behind the cold front. Maybe some gradient winter storm possibilities. As always, gradient storms only work if you end up in the right side of the gradient. Maybe better for interior sections? Then we have to see what happens with the mid and late February details which is beyond the range of the extended guidance.

Our system will make big headlines as it slowly comes ashore in California over the next several days.

Steady light snow here in SW Suffolk. Temperature is 35° so it’s melting on contact with the ground.

I think that the amplified MJO 7 is helping us with the PNA and EPO. Notice the west based block trying to link up with the Aleutian Ridge. The area of deeper blues are getting squeezed further SW off the West Coast than earlier runs. This can help us with the snow potential around Feb 1-2. The other thing to watch is if the MJO can make it over to Phase 8 before weakening in early February. The Euro has it currently stalling out in Phase 7 for a time. So we will probably need to watch later runs to see how they update. New run Old run

Some notable delayed cold records coming up later in the week. NYC should finally drop below 20° and HPN could get down to 12° or colder. This would be the 3rd latest to drop below 20° in NYC. It would be the 2nd latest for HPN to reach 12. The latest on record for HPN was set just last year. So this is the most recent version of how challenging it has been for winter cold since December 2015. KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 1/26/2021 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 TUE 26| WED 27| THU 28| FRI 29| SAT 30| SUN 31| MON 01| TUE 02 CLIMO X/N 39| 34 42| 26 34| 15 26| 16 32| 23 32| 30 38| 30 37 24 39 Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 1931 02-15 (1931) 16 02-16 (1932) 18 365 2001 02-22 (2001) 17 02-05 (2002) 19 347 2012 01-22 (2012) 18 01-22 (2013) 13 365 1974 02-15 (1974) 18 01-15 (1975) 17 333 1981 03-18 (1981) 17 01-09 (1982) 17 296 KHPN GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 1/26/2021 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 TUE 26| WED 27| THU 28| FRI 29| SAT 30| SUN 31| MON 01| TUE 02 CLIMO X/N 36| 30 38| 24 32| 12 21| 10 30| 15 29| 26 34| 24 34 21 38 Frost/Freeze Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 2019 03-08 (2019) 12 02-15 (2020) 9 343 2006 01-16 (2006) 11 01-25 (2007) 11 373 2012 01-16 (2012) 10 01-22 (2013) 11 371 1954 - - 01-21 (1955) 12 - 1974 02-10 (1974) 9 01-20 (1975) 9 343

It looks like the TPV drop into Eastern New England, which snuck up on the models, could give us a much needed assist here. We often get snows several days after an Arctic outbreak as the temperatures are moderating. The rising PNA and lingering -AO can also work in our favor.