bluewave

Classic recurving hurricane hurricane track and cool down that pumps the -NAO later in the week.

Fiona would be a nice cold front for us on the 0z Euro.

Another factor is how the record Bering Sea storm for September will influence the 500 mb pattern.

First refreshing airmass since last spring across the area. We needed stronger enough blocking to pull it off. The alignment of the blocking and trough to the north will eventually influence the track of Fiona.

Only .16 since Monday at the Wantagh mesonet. Precipitation 6 hours: 0.16″ 1 day: 0.16″

Similar finish to last year with near a 5 million sq km September average extent.

Record heat potential to start astronomical fall next week. The Euro, GFS, and GEM agree that low to mid 90s will be possible. It would be the most impressive late season heat since 2019. Newark Area, NJPeriod of record: 1931-01-01 through 2022-09-12 9/20 92 in 1983 88 in 1946 87 in 1985 9/21 90 in 1940 88 in 1998 88 in 1980 9/22 94 in 1970 93 in 1931 92 in 1980 9/23 94 in 1970 93 in 2019 93 in 1959 9/24 92 in 2017 92 in 1959 89 in 1970 9/25 91 in 1970 90 in 2017 90 in 2010+ 9/26 90 in 2007 90 in 1958 88 in 1970 9/27 91 in 1998 89 in 1933 88 in 2017 9/28 87 in 2014 86 in 2019 85 in 1954+ 9/29 89 in 1945 83 in 1959 82 in 2015+ 9/30 89 in 1986 85 in 1954 82 in 1960+ 10/1 85 in 1986 85 in 1950 84 in 2019+ 10/2 96 in 2019 86 in 2013 86 in 2002+

Another North Shore special with very little on the South Shore.

That was a preview in September 84 of Newark going to -8 in January 85. Much more cold air available in those days. That was the last time Newark almost got down to -10. 9/16 42 in 1984 46 in 1966 47 in 2007 1/21 -8 in 1985 3 in 1984 4 in 2019

Endless summer pattern so far this month across the area. Many urban stations still haven’t fallen below 60° yet. Several suburban stations haven’t dropped below 55° yet. These are among the warmest minimums we have seen this far into September. There is a chance that we may finally pass these early fall benchmarks by later this week with a brief cool down. But temperatures rebound back to around 90° by early next week. So September has become more like a 4th month of summer rather than the first month of fall. Very warm minimums so far across the area Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Aug 1 to Sep 12 Missing Count 1 2015-09-12 63 0 2 2022-09-12 62 1 3 2020-09-12 61 0 - 2016-09-12 61 0 - 2014-09-12 61 0 - 1996-09-12 61 0 4 1966-09-12 60 0 - 1947-09-12 60 0 - 1905-09-12 60 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Aug 1 to Sep 12 Missing Count 1 2015-09-12 57 0 - 2011-09-12 57 0 - 1996-09-12 57 6 2 2022-09-12 56 1 3 2005-09-12 55 0 - 1999-09-12 55 5 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Aug 1 to Sep 12 Missing Count 1 1996-09-12 58 0 2 2020-09-12 57 0 - 2018-09-12 57 0 - 2014-09-12 57 0 3 2022-09-12 56 1 - 2016-09-12 56 0 - 2015-09-12 56 0 - 1983-09-12 56 0 Brief cool down later this week 90° readings may return by early next week

4th warmest summer on record for the NNJ and NYC/LI climate zones. NYC-LI 201006 - 201008 75.2°F 128 202006 - 202008 74.3°F 127 201606 - 201608 74.2°F 126 202206 - 202208 74.1°F 125 200506 - 200508 73.9°F 124 201106 - 201108 73.9°F 124 199906 - 199908 73.7°F 122 201206 - 201208 73.4°F 121 201806 - 201808 73.4°F 121 202106 - 202108 73.4°F 121 201906 - 201908 73.2°F 118 201506 - 201508 73.1°F 117 194906 - 194908 73.0°F 116 200606 - 200608 73.0°F 116 NNJ 201006 - 201008 73.6°F 128 202006 - 202008 73.6°F 128 200506 - 200508 73.5°F 126 202206 - 202208 73.3°F 125 201606 - 201608 73.2°F 124 199906 - 199908 72.9°F 123 201806 - 201808 72.7°F 122 202106 - 202108 72.7°F 122 194906 - 194908 72.5°F 120 200206 - 200208 72.5°F 120 201106 - 201108 72.5°F 120 201906 - 201908 72.5°F 120

Scattered showers and thunderstorms into Tuesday with a chance that the wet spots could pick up over 1.00”. Then temperatures warm back into the 80s. First 50s of the season possible for NYC later in the week. Then temperatures rebound back into the 80s next week after the brief cool down. The warm spots may be able to sneak in another 90° for the season.

Freehold-Marlboro set a new record for their most 90° days and lead the entire state of New Jersey. So a continuation of the record hot summers theme since 2010. POU had the most 90° days in NY for the season. But if the Central Park site was properly maintained, then they would have had 30+ days also. Data for January 1, 2022 through September 10, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 53 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 52 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 51 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 49 Newark Area ThreadEx 49 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 46 Time Series Summary for FREEHOLD-MARLBORO, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2022 53 124 2 2010 52 7 3 2018 48 7 4 2021 43 0 5 2016 42 4 6 2020 40 7 7 2002 38 4 8 1944 37 3 9 1999 35 17 10 2015 34 3 - 1955 34 4 Data for January 1, 2022 through September 10, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT WBAN 34 Poughkeepsie Area ThreadEx 34 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 30 New York-LGA Area ThreadEx 30 SHRUB OAK COOP 29 SARATOGA SPRINGS 4 SW COOP 27 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 25 ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 25

It will be interesting to see if we can get our first fall-like cold front of the season later next week. But models have been correcting warmer recently with forecast cool downs. NYC has only dropped dropped to 62° so far which is continuing the later first 50s of fall theme. White Plains has only fallen to 56° making it one of the later first fall readings under 55° First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference 2016 06-14 (2016) 58 09-17 (2016) 59 94 1947 06-25 (1947) 58 09-17 (1947) 58 83 1966 06-13 (1966) 58 09-15 (1966) 51 93 2020 06-15 (2020) 59 09-14 (2020) 59 90 2015 06-27 (2015) 58 09-14 (2015) 59 78 1996 06-03 (1996) 54 09-14 (1996) 57 102 2014 06-15 (2014) 59 09-13 (2014) 58 89 1905 06-28 (1905) 57 09-13 (1905) 59 76 1959 06-20 (1959) 56 09-12 (1959) 56 83 2010 06-11 (2010) 58 09-11 (2010) 59 91 2005 06-20 (2005) 59 09-11 (2005) 58 82 1993 06-13 (1993) 59 09-11 (1993) 55 89 1980 06-21 (1980) 59 09-11 (1980) 57 81 1933 07-04 (1933) 58 09-11 (1933) 56 68 2012 06-26 (2012) 58 09-10 (2012) 58 75 1995 06-29 (1995) 57 09-10 (1995) 57 72 2018 06-12 (2018) 57 09-09 (2018) 55 88 First/Last Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference 2005 06-23 (2005) 53 09-24 (2005) 51 92 2015 06-07 (2015) 51 09-21 (2015) 54 105 2011 06-15 (2011) 54 09-15 (2011) 50 91 2020 06-16 (2020) 53 09-12 (2020) 54 87 1959 06-20 (1959) 50 09-12 (1959) 50 83 2018 07-08 (2018) 53 09-09 (2018) 53 62 1980 07-07 (1980) 54 09-09 (1980) 52 63 2002 07-12 (2002) 54 09-06 (2002) 53 55 1962 06-14 (1962) 52 09-06 (1962) 49 83 1978 07-12 (1978) 52 09-05 (1978) 52 54 1997 07-20 (1997) 54 09-04 (1997) 50 45 1990 06-13 (1990) 48 09-04 (1990) 54 82 2021 07-31 (2021) 53 09-03 (2021) 52 33

Pretty good illustration of why the tropics were so quiet this summer. The Hadley cell stretching created more stability than usual in the tropics. This lead to the monsoon circulations from India to North America being wetter with record rainfall amounts and flooding. The wettest area of the tropics was focused over the -IOD region near Australia. Plus it allowed stronger tropical development in the Atlantic to shift further north. So a much drier summer for our area which lost out on all the tropical systems and heavy rains of recent summers.

It was the 3rd coldest February in NYC and 2nd coldest at Blue Hill Observatory.

The blocking builds further south closer to the record warm pool east of New England. So it’s less warm instead of cool pattern like we got during the 20-21 winter. Before the warm pool, a strong -NAO and -AO was also accompanied by much cooler temperatures.

We have been able to avoid any major 95°+ heat this month due to the record south based blocking. This has allowed all the record heat to remain in the Western US. So only one day in the low 90s this month so far at Newark.

Luckily, it’s mostly a soil moisture drought here on the South Shore with brown lawns. It just hasn’t lasted long enough yet for any type of significant water restrictions. Much different situation than the megadrought in the West.

It was just enough rain to prevent and upgrade to D3 drought. We haven’t had that here since 2002. So a continuation of hit or miss storms as has been the theme this summer. All the tropical systems look like they will be fish storms for a while.

These weather statistics for the Blue Hills Observatory are similar to our area. It shows how widespread all these top 5 and 10 warmest months and seasons have been. Also what a big outlier February 2015 was.

This was a North Shore special like all the other events this summer. So the highest drought areas along the South Shore didn't get much relief. It was the typical .25 to .50 event for much of the South Shore. COCORAHS ...Nassau County... Syosset 2.20 in 0840 PM 09/06 CWOP Levittown 1.84 in 0830 PM 09/06 CWOP Oyster Bay 1.53 in 0815 PM 09/06 CWOP Hicksville 1.52 in 0827 PM 09/06 CWOP Muttontown 1.51 in 0840 PM 09/06 CWOP Syosset 1.38 in 0825 AM 09/06 COOP Great Neck 1.15 in 0828 PM 09/06 CWOP Muttontown 0.95 in 0839 PM 09/06 AWS East Hills 0.84 in 0625 PM 09/06 AWS Carle Place 0.81 in 0820 PM 09/06 CWOP Searingtown 0.71 in 0543 PM 09/06 AWS Farmingdale 0.66 in 0815 PM 09/06 CWOP North Merrick 0.63 in 0816 PM 09/06 CWOP North Massapequa 0.55 in 0836 PM 09/06 CWOP North Massapequa 0.52 in 0828 PM 09/06 CWOP Wantagh 0.41 in 0829 PM 09/06 CWOP Herricks 0.37 in 0830 AM 09/06 COCORAHS Valley Stream 0.37 in 0836 PM 09/06 CWOP Atoc - Plainview 0.34 in 0745 PM 09/06 RAWS Wantagh 0.34 in 0835 PM 09/06 NYSM Locust Valley 0.3 E 0.29 in 0845 AM 09/06 COCORAHS Merrick 0.28 in 0825 PM 09/06 CWOP Bellmore 0.25 in 0840 PM 09/06 AWS Suffolk County... Northport 2.03 in 0520 PM 09/06 CWOP Shirley 1.79 in 0830 PM 09/06 CWOP Smithtown 1.63 in 0830 PM 09/06 CWOP Dix Hills 1.61 in 0824 PM 09/06 CWOP Greenlawn 1.59 in 0821 PM 09/06 CWOP Shirley Airport 1.54 in 0814 PM 09/06 ASOS Stony Brook 1.46 in 0835 PM 09/06 NYSM Baiting Hollow 1.24 in 0840 PM 09/06 CWOP Northport 1.6 NNE 1.08 in 0804 AM 09/06 COCORAHS Upton 1.08 in 0944 PM 09/06 Official NWS Obs Kings Park 1.02 in 0830 PM 09/06 CWOP SMITHTOWN 0.98 in 0830 PM 09/06 CWOP Miller Place 0.97 in 0825 PM 09/06 CWOP Stony Brook 0.94 in 0839 PM 09/06 CWOP Patchogue 0.87 in 0836 PM 09/06 CWOP North Patchogue 0.81 in 0829 PM 09/06 CWOP Centerport 0.80 in 0700 AM 09/06 COOP Blue Point 0.80 in 0830 PM 09/06 CWOP Ridge 0.78 in 0835 PM 09/06 CWOP Blue Point 0.76 in 0837 PM 09/06 CWOP 3.6 NE Calverton 0.75 in 0500 PM 09/06 COOP Sayville 0.71 in 0839 PM 09/06 CWOP Blue Point 0.69 in 0835 PM 09/06 CWOP Montauk Airport 0.67 in 0754 PM 09/06 ASOS Islip Airport 0.65 in 0756 PM 09/06 ASOS Fishers Island 0.62 in 0800 AM 09/06 COCORAHS Nys Portable No. 1 0.57 in 0754 PM 09/06 RAWS West Islip 0.57 in 0824 PM 09/06 CWOP Remsenburg 0.57 in 0825 PM 09/06 CWOP Orient 0.57 in 0838 PM 09/06 CWOP Sagtikos Parkway 0.55 in 0625 PM 09/06 AWS Westhampton Airport 0.55 in 0753 PM 09/06 ASOS Mount Sinai 0.53 in 0400 PM 09/06 COOP West Babylon 0.53 in 0828 PM 09/06 CWOP N. Babylon 0.52 in 0840 PM 09/06 CWOP 1 WNW Wading River 0.51 in 0835 PM 09/06 AWS Brookhaven 0.50 in 0830 PM 09/06 CWOP Farmingdale Airport 0.42 in 0800 PM 09/06 ASOS East Hampton 0.42 in 0829 PM 09/06 CWOP Eastport 0.41 in 0445 PM 09/06 RAWS Southold 0.41 in 0835 PM 09/06 NYSM North Babylon 0.37 in 0822 PM 09/06 CWOP East Setauket 0.37 in 0838 PM 09/06 CWOP Southold 0.34 in 0825 PM 09/06 CWOP St James 1.7 W 0.33 in 0700 AM 09/06 COCORAHS Northport 0.27 in 0836 PM 09/06 CWOP West Gilgo Beach 0.25 in 0830 PM 09/06 CWOP 1 NNE Watermill 0.25 in 0840 PM 09/06 AWS

Temperatures gradually warming up next few days and peaking in the upper 80s on Saturday. Then a closed low approaches for early next week. So that will be our next chance for convection.

Scientists will look back on 2007-2012 as when the Arctic shifted to a whole new climate state defined by persistently low multiyear ice. So none of the slower melt years like this one could reach pre-2007 extent years above 6.00 million sq km. But the faster melt years like 2020 couldn’t surpass the 2012 minimum. It’s more of a static pattern over the last 10 years.

It’s easier to get big time droughts in the Western US which has well defined dry season. If those areas don’t do well during the winter rainy season, then the summer heat and less rainfall really dry things out. At least we get closer to uniform precipitation across all our seasons. So if one season is lacking, then things can rebound during the next season. It results in shorter dry periods. We haven’t had widespread D3 drought since 2002. But even that drought was much less severe than the current 1200 year megadrought in the West.