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bluewave

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  1. bluewave
    It would be great if we had the cold airmass that we did in 2020 for this storm. Highs in the low 30s and lows around 20° have produced some memorable snowstorms for us. Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Snowfall 2020-12-16 31 24 6.5 2020-12-17 33 24 4.0 2020-12-18 32 24 0.0 2020-12-19 32 20 0.0
  2. bluewave
    The 0z EPS has a stronger trough in the West now so it has a warmer pattern for our area.
  3. bluewave
    Why would you ignore a cold bias which has been showing up all season?
  4. bluewave
    Because both sets of solutions are showing the same challenges with the warm air. The first challenge is a more wrapped up system which could correct NW under 72 hrs. The GFS has the 2nd challenge with a trough in the West pumping the ridge and temps in the mid 30s. But it takes longer for the system to consolidate so the surface low is weaker. While it’s still too early, the RGEM is weaker and more strung out with the low than the GEM near the end of it’s run.
  5. bluewave
    It’s tough to rely on those 10:1 maps with marginal temperatures as the positive snow depth charts are much lower.
  6. bluewave
    The GFS has a weaker and further south system so it can’t draw enough cold into the storm. The ridge ahead the storm was still strong enough so temps are in the mid 30s.
  7. bluewave
    That historic January Arctic outbreak produced the all-time 2nd coldest temperature on record at Newark. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Dec through Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1933-1934 -14 0 2 1984-1985 -8 0 3 1981-1982 -7 0 - 1942-1943 -7 0 4 1935-1936 -4 0 - 1934-1935 -4 0 5 1993-1994 -2 0 - 1976-1977 -2 0 - 1962-1963 -2 0 - 1960-1961 -2 0
  8. bluewave
  9. bluewave
    Tough situation for the Northeast coming off the wettest December and calendar year at several locations.
  10. bluewave
    Yeah, the NW trend is your friend if the forecast track is starting out far enough southeast in a more favorable pattern for coastal snowstorms.
  11. bluewave
    My guess is that it’s related to the Gulf Stream warming over the last 40 years.
  12. bluewave
    It doesn’t have to since just having a trough in that location usually leads to the models correcting stronger with Southeast ridge the closer in time we get.
  13. bluewave
    The trough is more consolidated near the Four Corners. The GFS forecast sounding is likely underestimating the warming near the coast with such a strong easterly LLJ off the Ocean.
  14. bluewave
    Stronger Southeast ridge this run leading to warmer storm track for the coast. This was expected with the trough in the West. New run Old run
  15. bluewave
  16. bluewave
    You can see why the GEFS has a deeper trough in the West than the EPS. Much stronger MJO through 4. I know the EPS has issues with convection near the Maritime Continent related to the barrier effect. But this is the most extreme MJO divergence I have ever see between the two models.
  17. bluewave
    If this is as amped as several models show, then a coastal hugger track like the CMC is possible.
  18. bluewave
    First time NYC didn’t drop below 35° between Christmas and New Years. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Dec 25 to Jan 1 Missing Count 1 2024-01-01 35 0 2 2022-01-01 34 0 - 2016-01-01 34 0 - 1980-01-01 34 0 3 2007-01-01 33 0 - 1941-01-01 33 0 - 1908-01-01 33 0
  19. bluewave
    If that tucked track verifies, then the CMC will be a degree or two warmer. It’s currently running 2° too cold for NYC this morning.
  20. bluewave
    Warmest run of the UKMET so far and even warmer than the CMC.
  21. bluewave
    Interior spots could see more frozen plus an eventual changeover to plain rain with the follow up cutter.
  22. bluewave
    Just 1-2° too warm in an already marginal set up would be an issue. This storm may turn out as a be careful what you wish for if the interior spots get a significant snow. December has seen record rainfall and flooding in the Northeast. There is strong model support for a follow up system which would probably cut to the Lakes. Heavy rains + snowmelt would be really unwanted for interior spots. Even coastal areas could eventually see flooding with more follow up heavy rainstorms.
  23. bluewave
    Concerning how close to us the track is at 144 hrs since amped systems like this often tick further west the closer in we get. Plus we have the cold bias with all the models running too cold this winter days 5-6. Then much of what the Euro shows is a mix along the coast but gets counted as SN in those 10:1 charts.
  24. bluewave
    We would probably need a perfect thread the needle of the storm being not too amped but not too suppressed. Traditionally over amped or suppression have been the two risks with deep trough in the West. Either the trough in the West pumps the ridge near us too much or a low is too close behind this one and it leads to suppression.
  25. bluewave
    The one interesting stat is that NYC avoided a complete shut out even with all the winter months in the calendar year over 40°. So in a much warmer future climate, the chances of not recording at least a T are probably pretty slim. But it does raise the prospect that some day we may see a season or calendar year under 1”. Just hopefully no time soon.
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