bluewave

Yeah, Nino 4 and MJO 7 overlap so the near record SSTs there produce a very warm pattern for the CONUS in December on the El Niño MJO composite.

Perhaps the MEI isn’t suited for El Niños that have the forcing so far west into the MJO 4-7 regions like this December. The VP anomalies for December so far were more intense than 2015, 1997, and 1982. But are of a similar intensity to 1972 displaced much further west.

NYC continues the record breaking streak of 13 years reaching 55 or warmer from 12-17 to 12-25. The previous record was 11 years from 1998 to 2008. This current streak is even more impressive due to combined number of years over 60° with the 2 years over 70°. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Dec 17 to Dec 25 Missing Count 2023-12-25 62 7 2022-12-25 58 0 2021-12-25 60 0 2020-12-25 61 0 2019-12-25 57 0 2018-12-25 61 0 2017-12-25 55 0 2016-12-25 58 0 2015-12-25 72 0 2014-12-25 62 0 2013-12-25 71 0 2012-12-25 56 0 2011-12-25 62 0 2010-12-25 40 0 2009-12-25 39 0 2008-12-25 58 0 2007-12-25 61 0 2006-12-25 59 0 2005-12-25 55 0 2004-12-25 59 0 2003-12-25 56 0 2002-12-25 60 0 2001-12-25 58 0 2000-12-25 62 0 1999-12-25 60 0 1998-12-25 63 0

With a little luck our next rain event will hold off until after Christmas. But it will push the rainfall totals this year even higher. Numerous spots are already over 60.00 and NYC and LGA just need a few more inches. FLL will be the most extreme rainfall record this year for the CONUS. Data for January 1, 2023 through December 19, 2023 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation CT NORTHFORD 0.8 SW CoCoRaHS 66.73 NY WEST POINT COOP 66.21 CT PROSPECT 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 64.77 NY PEEKSKILL 0.4 N CoCoRaHS 64.54 CT SEYMOUR 1.2 WSW CoCoRaHS 64.42 CT NORWICH 2.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 64.16 NY STONY POINT 0.7 NW CoCoRaHS 63.73 CT ANSONIA 1 NE COOP 63.71 NY CARMEL 4N COOP 62.93 NY THORNWOOD 0.7 NW CoCoRaHS 62.74 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 62.55 CT BETHANY 1.3 SW CoCoRaHS 62.53 CT MIDDLEFIELD 0.6 SE CoCoRaHS 62.12 CT GRISWOLD 0.9 N CoCoRaHS 61.66 NY NEW HEMPSTEAD 0.6 SE CoCoRaHS 61.56 CT OAKDALE 2.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 61.51 CT HIGGANUM 0.8 NE CoCoRaHS 61.18 CT COLCHESTER 0.6 ENE CoCoRaHS 60.42 CT EAST LYME 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 60.38 CT WATERBURY 1.3 WNW CoCoRaHS 60.37 NY BEACON 4.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 60.30 NY SOUTH SALEM 0.8 N CoCoRaHS 59.90 CT HIGGANUM 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 59.87 CT BROOKFIELD 3.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 59.59 CT NEWTOWN 4.6 SE CoCoRaHS 59.41 CT WALLINGFORD CENTER 1.9 WNW CoCoRaHS 59.25 CT RIDGEFIELD 2.4 NNE CoCoRaHS 59.19 CT PROSPECT 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 58.90 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 58.87 NY SOUTH SALEM 2.1 NW CoCoRaHS 58.80 CT CROMWELL 0.4 WNW CoCoRaHS 58.71 NJ WAYNE TWP 2.3 ESE CoCoRaHS 58.68 CT MERIDEN 2.8 WSW CoCoRaHS 58.49 NJ RINGWOOD 3.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 58.47 NY BRIARCLIFF MANOR 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 58.33 CT NAUGATUCK 1.7 NNE CoCoRaHS 58.31 NY LITTLE NECK 0.3 SE CoCoRaHS 58.27 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 58.25 CT JEWETT CITY 3.0 ESE CoCoRaHS 58.24 CT NEW CANAAN 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 58.19 NJ HARRISON COOP 58.04 CT SHELTON 1.3 W CoCoRaHS 57.93 NY PORT JERVIS 2.9 ESE CoCoRaHS 57.72 NY ARMONK 0.3 SE CoCoRaHS 57.71 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 57.68 Time Series Summary for Fort Lauderdale Area, FL (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2023 111.90 13 2 1947 102.36 0 3 2020 90.03 3 4 1994 87.25 1 5 1954 85.65 1

This December is a classic case of competing or overlapping influences enhancing the warmth. Have the very strong to super El Niño combined with the warm MJO 4-7 phases. So the US is set to finish around the 3rd warmest December on record since 1950. Only 2015 and 2021 were warmer. It’s no surprise 2015 was at the top of the list with the record MJO stall in phase 5. The double digit departures that month were focused in the Northeast.This December the double digit departures are closer to International Falls and Canada. December 2021 was a La Niña and there was a significant stall in MJO 6-7 which really pumped the Southeast ridge. While super El Niños like 1997 and 1982 were stronger than this year, the MJO activity in December wasn’t in the warmer phases which included the Maritime Continent. So while the location of the El Niño warm departures this month we’re classic El Niño, the magnitude of the departures were enhanced by the warm MJO interaction.

Is this the link that you were looking for? https://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/awinters/realtime/Deterministic_NPJPD.php

Yeah, pretty rough conditions up there today.

Had stronger +EPOs in early December 1952 and 1959. But were still able to manage an Eastern trough with the -AO +PNA patterns. Keep seeing some version of the Southeast ridge with teleconnection combos that it was usually absent in during the past.

December 1982 was much cooler across the CONUS than 2015 and this year. But as we saw in 2015, El Niños combined with MJO 4-7 phases in December are very warm. The double digit departures in 2015 were centered over the Northeast with the record MJO 5 stall. The MJO action this December favored the double digit departures in Canada.

TEB looks like they tied their all-time December high dewpoint of 64°a few hours ago.

Looks like too much of a washing machine for the surfers to go out in Long Beach. https://skudinsurf.com/surfcam/

This may be the first time that we had a +PNA -AO in early December with a weak Southeast ridge.

This month will also feature one of the greatest AO rises on record for December from near -3 to near +3.

Peak gust so far 64 mph in Westchester. 0500 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 S Mamaroneck 40.92N 73.73W 12/18/2023 M64 MPH ANZ335 NY Mesonet

The full month ranking in a few weeks won’t be significantly different. We aren’t talking just two years here. There have been 20 to 30 top 10 warmest months to only 1 coldest month since 2015 at our local stations.

With a little luck the next rain event holds off until the 26th or 27th and we have a dry Christmas with good travel conditions like we had Thanksgiving day.

Latest GFS forecast soundings for the Jersey Shore and LI beaches have sustained winds during the peak of the storm around 40 mph. Frequent gusts in the 50-60 mph range. Stronger convection could mix down the 950 mb winds in peak gusts near 68 mph.

As impressive as theNorth Pacific Jet extension has been, the North Atlantic Jet will actually be stronger relative to climo for that region than the Pacific Jet in its region.The forecast is for it to max out near 5 sigma next week.

Mild afternoon here at KHVN with the high around 57°. I got a chance to walk over to the ASOS. They have it in a great location near the edge of the airport. The airport is built on a scenic marshy area with hills just to the west near New Haven Harbor. It’s in a very low spot so they have had issues with flooding at times.

Sure. This is for the entire CONUS.

We haven’t really had a mean on Long Island since the early 90s. Just a bunch of all or nothing snowfall seasons. Completely different from the 60s to early 90s with numerous snowfall years near the median.

NYC just had the 7th warmest first half of December at 45°. Since the 91-20 climate normals are so warm, it only took a +3.8 departure which doesn’t seem like much. So a continuation of our region experiencing average temperatures which used to be normal for places to our south like Virginia. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Dec 15 Missing Count 1 2015-12-15 52.0 0 2 2001-12-15 51.3 0 3 1998-12-15 50.6 0 4 1953-12-15 47.4 0 5 1951-12-15 46.9 2 6 2021-12-15 45.4 0 7 2023-12-15 45.0 0 - 2012-12-15 45.0 0 - 2011-12-15 45.0 0 - 1991-12-15 45.0 0 8 1999-12-15 44.8 0 9 1923-12-15 44.7 0 10 1891-12-15 44.6 0

GFS forecast soundings only have a weak inversion in place out in Suffolk. So stronger convection could potentially tap the 950 mb winds which are around 63KT or 72 mph in gusts near the shoreline. Even the surface sustained winds are around 40KT or 47 mph.

That is the prevailing opinion for most people off this board who want our winters to be milder with less snow. We are definitely in the minority in liking colder and snowier winters.

North American snow extent now the lowest on record for this date going back almost 20 years. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_monitor.html