bluewave

The La Niña background state has been finding a way to push back against even the strongest El Niño’s due to the record WPAC warm pool. The strongest winter La Niña-like month was during the December 2015 super El Niño. But at least we had a nice El Niño backloaded effect from Jan into Feb.

Anthony is correct since the WPAC warm pool is still warmer closer to +30C vs only 26-28C further east. This is why the forcing is leaning west.

Looks like an apples to apples comparison since it appears that the ASOS has been in that warm spot for quite some time. So the 17 daily record highs since July 4th is with the ASOS in the same spot that it always has been. It's still significant that you're seeing record reports coming out of [Marathon] because even in the history of that location and the station, relatively speaking, it has been hotter this year than others. Every day we're pretty close to tying or breaking a daily high record. Marathon's period of record dates back to 1950, which is kind of medium length. In comparison to Key West, with the records dating back to 1871, it's harder to break records in Key West with its long periods of record. Whereas, Marathon you're dealing with a shorter time period." 7/4 95 in 2023 95 in 1998 95 in 1992 7/5 96 in 2023 95 in 2020 94 in 2019+ 7/6 95 in 2023 94 in 2020 94 in 2009+ 7/7 96 in 2023 95 in 2009 94 in 2020 7/8 97 in 2023 95 in 2009 93 in 2022+ 7/9 96 in 2023 94 in 2009 93 in 2022+ 7/10 97 in 2023 94 in 2020 94 in 1998+ 7/11 98 in 2023 96 in 1991 95 in 1969 7/12 98 in 2023 95 in 2022 95 in 1969 7/13 99 in 2023 95 in 2022 95 in 1969 7/14 98 in 2023 95 in 2022 95 in 1991+ 7/15 99 in 1987 97 in 2023 94 in 2009+ 7/16 98 in 2023 95 in 1969 94 in 2018+ 7/17 98 in 2023 96 in 1987 95 in 1969 7/18 98 in 2023 95 in 2014 95 in 1991 7/19 96 in 2023 96 in 2018 95 in 2009 7/20 98 in 2023 94 in 2018 94 in 2004 7/21 97 in 2023 96 in 2018 94 in 2022+

While this doesn’t diminish the marine heatwave, the marathon sensor runs warm due to its sitting near concrete. https://phys.org/news/2023-07-city-keys-hottest-florida-weather.html Why is Marathon always hotter? To some observers, Marathon runs hotter than other parts of the Keys. It's not in your imagination—and there's a reason. The hot spot has to do with the location of the National Weather Service's sensors, explains National Weather Service in Key West meteorologist Jon Rizzo. "The temperature of the cities is actually a specific instrument that we maintain at the airport. And in the case of Marathon, the location of that is kind of sandwiched between some pavement including part of the ramp where they park the aircraft and the driveway, which is just to the south," Rizzo said. "So what happens is when the winds are light and over this stretch, in particular, the last couple of weeks, some of the hot air over the payment passes over the sensor, and so it will read higher than perhaps positioned at another part of the airfield that may be over a grassy surface." "A lot of that has to do with the siting and that's why it's consistently on average two to three degrees warmer than, let's say, our sensor at the Key West airport." Another factor for falling records: Marathon's period of temperature weather-keeping records is considerably shorter than that of Key West, Rizzo said. "It's still significant that you're seeing record reports coming out of [Marathon] because even in the history of that location and the station, relatively speaking, it has been hotter this year than others. Every day we're pretty close to tying or breaking a daily high record. Marathon's period of record dates back to 1950, which is kind of medium length. In comparison to Key West, with the records dating back to 1871, it's harder to break records in Key West with its long periods of record. Whereas, Marathon you're dealing with a shorter time period." Rizzo said the Keys weather service is working with the Federal Aviation Administration to possibly relocate the sensors at Marathon International Airport to a different part of its airfield. But any such move will take some time. As for Thursday, Rizzo said the forecast high is either 96 or 97. The record high for July 14 in Marathon is 95, set a year ago in 2022. Expect another record.

Yeah, off the charts.

At least this country is burning more natural gas which emits half the emissions of coal. Much better for air quality and breathing issues. There is only so much we can do with renewables since they are intermittent and land intensive. Even many pro renewables people are opposed to large wind and solar installations in their backyard. New transmission networks cost a fortune. Electricity rates are already high enough. Utilities always find a way to pass on higher energy costs to the consumer. Nuclear is great but the cost of building new plants is too much so there are no utilities looking to build. We may have to wait for fusion to eventually become feasible to see emissions begin to decline. New York Times:

We are in part of the country where NYC UHI became established in the early 1900s and expanded to the suburbs 1950-1980. So all of our warming since 1980 is CC. Places like Phoenix and Las Vegas have seen the double whammy of UHI expansion and CC since 1970. UHI around NYC was pretty strong by the late 1800s. Data for August 1, 1896 through August 31, 1896 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 16 NY BRONX COOP 12 NJ NEWARK COOP 11 NJ PATERSON COOP 11 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 10 NY WORLD TRADE CENTER WBAN 10 NJ ELIZABETH COOP 9 CT BRIDGEPORT COOP 9 NY WEST POINT COOP 7 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 6 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 6 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 6 CT NEW LONDON COOP 5 CT COLCHESTER 2 W COOP 5 NY BRENTWOOD COOP 4 CT WATERBURY ANACONDA COOP 4 CT NORWALK COOP 3 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 1

The Dust Bowl was an early example of humans altering the Great Plains climate through land degradation. We had a big hand in the magnitude of the record heat. Now we are cooling the region through our farming practices. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16676-w The severe drought of the 1930s Dust Bowl decade coincided with record-breaking summer heatwaves that contributed to the socio-economic and ecological disaster over North America’s Great Plains. It remains unresolved to what extent these exceptional heatwaves, hotter than in historically forced coupled climate model simulations, were forced by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and exacerbated through human-induced deterioration of land cover. Here we show, using an atmospheric-only model, that anomalously warm North Atlantic SSTs enhance heatwave activity through an association with drier spring conditions resulting from weaker moisture transport. Model devegetation simulations, that represent the wide-spread exposure of bare soil in the 1930s, suggest human activity fueled stronger and more frequent heatwaves through greater evaporative drying in the warmer months. This study highlights the potential for the amplification of naturally occurring extreme events like droughts by vegetation feedbacks to create more extreme heatwaves in a warmer world.

Downtown Philly has made to 100° numerous times in recent years. But the airport lags by a few degrees since it’s in the marshy area along the Delaware with slightly cooler breezes on S to SW flow. Very few westerly flow heat events in recent years which the airport needs for 100° heat. Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Center City Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2023 94 184 2 2022 99 2 3 2021 100 2 4 2020 99 115 5 2019 100 14 6 2018 101 25 7 2017 98 1 8 2016 99 7 9 2015 97 0 10 2014 96 2 11 2013 99 1 12 2012 101 0 13 2011 104 3 14 2010 103 1 Time Series Summary for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 2023 95 166 2022 99 0 2021 97 0 2020 97 0 2019 98 0 2018 98 0 2017 96 0 2016 98 0 2015 96 0 2014 96 0 2013 98 0 2012 101 0 2011 103 0 2010 103 0 The airport has only averaged 36 days reaching 90° since 2010 vs 42 days in the city center. Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Season Mean 0 2 6 15 9 3 0 36 2022 0 3 5 19 19 2 0 48 2021 0 3 9 10 15 0 0 37 2020 0 0 5 21 10 0 0 36 2019 0 1 4 18 8 3 1 35 2018 0 1 4 11 10 4 0 30 2017 0 3 6 11 4 2 0 26 2016 0 3 5 16 17 5 0 46 2015 0 1 7 10 12 7 0 37 2014 0 0 3 11 3 2 0 19 2013 0 3 4 12 0 1 0 20 2012 0 2 7 21 8 1 0 39 2011 0 3 5 21 4 0 0 33 2010 0 2 15 19 12 7 0 55 Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for Philadelphia Center City Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Season Mean 0 3 8 17 12 4 0 42 2022 0 2 6 21 19 2 0 50 2021 1 5 11 17 16 3 0 53 2020 M M M 20 13 1 0 34 2019 0 2 6 21 14 5 1 49 2018 0 5 6 14 19 7 0 51 2017 0 3 8 14 10 3 0 38 2016 0 5 7 16 21 4 0 53 2015 0 2 9 10 14 7 0 42 2014 0 1 6 13 4 5 0 29 2013 1 2 6 14 3 1 0 27 2012 0 2 6 21 8 2 0 39 2011 0 3 6 20 4 0 0 33 2010 1 2 16 18 11 5 0 53

We haven’t been getting many westerly flow heat events since around 2018. There has been a strong S to SSE component to the flow at times with the big ridge east of New England. So that definitely affects the conditions at PHL which is in a marshy area along the Delaware. You would be surprised what a body of water that width can do. It will shave a few degrees off the daily high with strong southerly flow days relative to the Franklin Institute which is downtown. Same thing happens at Newark with even the slightest flow off the bay. Those tables that I posted were for the whole region. Not just Philly. The airport isn’t as representative to what downtown Philly experiences in the more built up concrete jungle. The tables give a wider perspective than just one station that everyone is familiar with . The tables show that the 100° heat last summer extended from SMQ to Newark with spots in NYC as shown by the NYC micronet. So Newark is representative of the wider area around the airport. Harrison can often be a degree or two warmer since its located further off bay. So there is nothing special or anomalous about the high temperatures at Newark International. Airport is alongside a wider part of Delaware River and gets slight cooling on southerly flow relative to downtown Philly.

Newark is in line with the surrounding stations from the SMQ area to Harrison. The airports near the Delaware just haven’t been as warm as the other areas of Eastern PA. These are the summer high temperatures of the last few years. Even downtown Philly reached 100. Data for June 1, 2022 through August 31, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature Newark Area ThreadEx 102 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 102 HARRISON COOP 102 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 101 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 101 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 101 MANASQUAN 1 NW COOP 101 CANOE BROOK COOP 101 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 101 LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 100 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 100 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 100 Data for June 1, 2022 through August 31, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature ACMETONIA LOCK 3 COOP 102 NORRISTOWN COOP 100 PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 99 NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 99 BEAR GAP COOP 99 Philadelphia Area ThreadEx 99 PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 99 Philadelphia Center City Area ThreadEx 99 for June 1, 2021 through August 31, 2021 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 103 Newark Area ThreadEx 103 HARRISON COOP 101 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 100 LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 100 Data for June 1, 2021 through August 31, 2021 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature WOLFSBURG COOP 101 ACMETONIA LOCK 3 COOP 101 SHIPPENSBURG COOP 100 Philadelphia Center City Area ThreadEx 100 PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 100 Reading Area ThreadEx 99 BIGLERVILLE COOP 99 LANCASTER 2 NE FILT PLANT COOP 99 PHOENIXVILLE 1 E COOP 99 READING REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 99 SELINSGROVE 2 S COOP 99 SUNBURY COOP 98 LOCK HAVEN SEWAGE PLANT COOP 98 CASHTOWN 1S COOP 98 Middletown-Harrisburg Area ThreadEx 98 CARLISLE WATER PLANT COOP 98 LANCASTER AIRPORT WBAN 98 MIDDLETOWN HARRISBURG INT'L AP WBAN 98 HARRISBURG CAPITAL CITY AP WBAN 98 WILLIAMSPORT 2 COOP 98 DOYLESTOWN AIRPORT WBAN 98 PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 97 SAFE HARBOR DAM COOP 97 CONNELLSVILLE 2 SSW COOP 97 NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 97 Data for June 1, 2020 through August 31, 2020 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 99 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 98 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 98 HARRISON COOP 98 MARGATE COOP 98 Atlantic City Area ThreadEx 97 MILLVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 97 ATLANTIC CITY INTL AP WBAN 97 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 97 CANOE BROOK COOP 97 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 97 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 96 Newark Area ThreadEx 96 CAPE MAY 2 NW COOP 96 HAMMONTON 1 NE COOP 96 FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 96 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 96 Data for June 1, 2020 through August 31, 2020 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature MURRYSVILLE 2 SW COOP 102 MIDDLETOWN HARRISBURG INT'L AP WBAN 100 HARRISBURG CAPITAL CITY AP WBAN 100 WILLIAMSPORT REGIONAL AP WBAN 100 HANOVER 4 SW COOP 100 Williamsport Area ThreadEx 100 Middletown-Harrisburg Area ThreadEx 100 EVERETT COOP 99 CONNELLSVILLE 2 SSW COOP 99 NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT WBAN 99 WOLFSBURG COOP 99 READING REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 99 LOCK HAVEN SEWAGE PLANT COOP 99 PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 99 HARRISBURG 1 NE COOP 99 CARLISLE WATER PLANT COOP 99 Reading Area ThreadEx 99 Philadelphia Center City Area ThreadEx 99

6 days reaching a 100° last summer at Newark and Freehold and SMQ at 5. There were 2 COOP sites that made it to 100° in PA. The Franklin Institute in Philly reached 100° back in 2021. A COOP in PA had 6 days reach 100° in 2020. So Philly hasn’t been a local warm spot as the airports have been a little cooler with the flow off the Delaware River. Data for January 1, 2022 through December 31, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 6 Newark Area ThreadEx 6 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 6 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 5 CANOE BROOK COOP 4 HARRISON COOP 4 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 3 LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 2 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 2 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 1 MANASQUAN 1 NW COOP 1 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 1 Data for January 1, 2022 through December 31, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 NORRISTOWN COOP 1 ACMETONIA LOCK 3 COOP 1 Data for January 1, 2021 through December 31, 2021 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 SHIPPENSBURG COOP 2 WOLFSBURG COOP 1 ACMETONIA LOCK 3 COOP 1 PHILADELPHIA FRANKLIN INSTITUTE COOP 1 Philadelphia Center City Area ThreadEx 1 Data for January 1, 2020 through December 31, 2020 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 MURRYSVILLE 2 SW COOP 6 HARRISBURG CAPITAL CITY AP WBAN 3 MIDDLETOWN HARRISBURG INT'L AP WBAN 1 WILLIAMSPORT REGIONAL AP WBAN 1 Williamsport Area ThreadEx 1 Middletown-Harrisburg Area ThreadEx 1

For somebody in the Atlantic Basin with a record amount of high octane SST fuel out there.

Very strong south based block like we have been seeing in recent years.

Newark behind other stations for 90° day lead across region. Data for January 1, 2023 through July 17, 2023 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 14 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 14 ESTELL MANOR COOP 14 HARRISON COOP 14 Newark Area ThreadEx 12 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 12 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 11 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 10 CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 10 TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 10 Data for January 1, 2023 through July 17, 2023 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 HARRISBURG CAPITAL CITY AP WBAN 14 LANCASTER 2 NE FILT PLANT COOP 13 READING REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 10 NEW HOLLAND 2 SE COOP 10 SCHENLEY LOCK 5 COOP 10 Reading Area ThreadEx 10 Data for January 1, 2023 through July 17, 2023 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 WEST POINT COOP 10 Data for January 1, 2023 through July 17, 2023 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 HARTFORD-BRADLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 10 Hartford Area ThreadEx 10 Data for January 1, 2023 through July 17, 2023 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 REISTERSTOWN COOP 17 BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 16 Baltimore Area ThreadEx 16 Baltimore Downtown Area ThreadEx 15 MARYLAND SCIENCE CENTER WBAN 15 PATUXENT RIVER NAS WBAN 12 STEVENSVILLE 2SW COOP 12 Salisbury Area ThreadEx 11 SALISBURY-WICOMICO REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 11

The latest OISST from Nino 3.4 is +1.1. The same week in 2016 was +1.4. 1997 came in at +1.4 also. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for

Nearly 20” at West Point over the last 30 days. Data for June 18, 2023 through July 17, 2023 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NY WEST POINT COOP 19.07 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 16.66 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 14.11 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 13.32 NY BEACON 4.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 12.49 NY NEW HEMPSTEAD 0.6 SE CoCoRaHS 11.90 NY CORNWALL ON HUDSON 0.6 NNW CoCoRaHS 11.83 NJ WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM COOP 11.67 NY WALDEN 1.2 S CoCoRaHS 11.67 NY STONY POINT 0.7 NW CoCoRaHS 11.00 NY PEEKSKILL 0.4 N CoCoRaHS 10.98 NY PORT JERVIS 2.9 ESE CoCoRaHS 10.66 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 10.65 NY CARMEL 4N COOP 10.53 CT GUILFORD COOP 10.33 NY WARWICK 3.2 WNW CoCoRaHS

Wettest July on record at MGJ since records began in 1998. This has been the 6th wettest July at RDG since the late 1800s. Also the 7th wettest July at Islip. This has been the 6th warmest July so far at Newark which has been drier at only 3.73”. Nearby Harrison is 7th warmest. Time Series Summary for MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2023 9.15 15 2 2016 6.98 2 3 2021 6.72 1 4 2018 6.12 0 5 2009 5.65 1 Time Series Summary for Reading Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 1916 12.41 0 2 1969 12.15 0 3 1925 11.66 0 4 2004 11.37 0 5 1889 9.30 0 6 2023 8.84 15 7 1952 8.60 0 8 2017 8.45 0 9 1912 8.34 0 10 1873 8.32 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 1984 8.36 0 2 1969 7.67 0 3 1996 6.55 0 4 2009 6.52 0 5 2007 6.50 0 6 1992 6.20 0 7 2023 6.00 15 8 2006 5.46 0 9 2020 5.15 0 10 2021 5.12 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2011 82.7 0 2 2022 82.6 0 3 1993 82.5 0 4 2010 82.3 0 5 1994 81.9 0 6 2023 81.0 15 7 2013 80.9 0 8 2020 80.8 0 - 2012 80.8 0 - 1999 80.8 0 9 2019 80.6 0 Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 81.6 0 2 2020 81.5 0 3 2019 81.4 0 4 2012 81.2 2 5 2010 81.1 2 6 2002 80.9 0 7 2023 80.7 15 - 2013 80.7 0 8 2011 80.5 3 9 2016 79.8 0 10 2018 79.4 0 - 2006 79.4 0

The previous record was 2.26 set back in 2021.

Record PWAT for the date.

It’s great to speak with you again. I was born a few days after a famous 1960s KU event. So you can say it’s in my meteorological birth chart.

While December 2015 is a tough act to follow, another winter in the upper 30s to around 40° in NYC could still be possible. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015 50.8 0 2 2001 44.1 0 3 2021 43.8 0 4 1984 43.7 0 5 2006 43.6 0 6 2011 43.3 0 7 1998 43.1 0 8 1982 42.7 0 9 1990 42.6 0 10 1891 42.5 0 Top 20 warmest winters since 2011-2012 bolded Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2001-2002 41.5 0 2 2022-2023 41.0 0 - 2015-2016 41.0 0 3 2011-2012 40.5 0 4 1931-1932 40.1 0 5 1997-1998 39.6 0 6 2016-2017 39.3 0 7 2019-2020 39.2 0 8 1990-1991 39.1 0 9 1998-1999 38.6 0 10 1948-1949 38.5 0 11 1889-1890 38.4 0 12 1952-1953 38.1 0 13 1982-1983 37.9 0 - 1936-1937 37.9 0 14 1996-1997 37.8 0 - 1932-1933 37.8 0 15 1949-1950 37.6 2 16 1974-1975 37.5 0 - 1879-1880 37.5 2 17 1953-1954 37.4 0 18 2005-2006 37.3 0 19 1991-1992 37.2 0 - 1951-1952 37.2 2 20 2021-2022 37.1 0 - 1994-1995 37.1 0 - 1912-1913 37.1 0

This has to be one of my favorite weather short films of the last decade or so.

A basinwide VP forcing signal with a westward lean could still produce a warmer winter. But a well timed STJ impulse with some blocking could produce the famous El Niño rogue KU event. Most will take a mild and snowier winter than this past one over mild and snowless.

While the location of the best forcing for next winter is still uncertain, the much warmer WPAC is pulling the forcing much further west than at this point in 1997. So a +3 Nino 1+2 anomaly today may only be effectively similar to a +1 to +1.5 with the WPAC at record warm levels. Nino 1+2 may need to get closer to +4 to +5 with a cooler WPAC to have any influence next winter.