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bluewave

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  1. bluewave
    I am hoping the convection will weaken in February near the Maritime Continent. But it’s still uncertain and no guarantee until we see what the MJO does after going though 4-7. It will really be a wait and see situation. We have had so many disappointments in recent years with the MJO weakening before 8 and then reloading in 4-7 again.
  2. bluewave
    All the cold keeps going into the West or Plains. This is where the mean trough has been located since around the 15-16 super El Niño. It’s mainly a function of the frequent MJO 4-7 phases.
  3. bluewave
    They should have had 1” on 2-27-23 but probably took the measurement too late after some melting had occurred. Data for February 27, 2023 through February 27, 2023 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Snowfall NJ CEDAR GROVE TWP 0.4 W CoCoRaHS 2.8 NY RIDGE 1.8 SE CoCoRaHS 2.4 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 2.0 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 1.8 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 1.2 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 1.1 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 1.0 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 0.9
  4. bluewave
    24-36 may be the max for set ups like this since they stopped updating the model after March 2017. https://www.weather.gov/media/nws/Public_release_notes_NAM.v4.0.pdf
  5. bluewave
    No guarantees especially if we stall out in 7 instead preceding to 8. But hoping for at least one solid 8 this winter.
  6. bluewave
    BHO is running around 50 to 1 top 10 warmest to coldest months since 2010 as February 15 remains our greatest outlier month of the last decade or so.
  7. bluewave
    That’s for sure as 2024 picks up right where 2023 left off.
  8. bluewave
    I am hoping the MJO can find its way over to phase 8 in February since that would be a great pattern for us.
  9. bluewave
    I believe 1888 made a loop at the Benchmark which prolonged the the heaviest rates. Much higher ratios with that event since it was so cold. But we will never know for sure since it was before the radar era.
  10. bluewave
    NESIS is a nice metric to have. But I am also focused on which storms produce the the most intense snowstorm at their core. Nemo would be my top pick for best snowfall rates in modern times. Give me just one of these each winter and I don’t care what the rest of the winter does.
  11. bluewave
    I liked it much better when the NWS office was in 30 Rock and had the mets going over to the Park to measure snowfall in person. These days the staff at the Park sometimes gets out there too late and the snowfall has melted or settled. It’s not done with the precision of the airport observers. That’s why I think NYC probably got 1 inch like the airports last winter but was under measured. But the below 2” streak looks valid since it’s backed up by the airports which are in the same snow drought.
  12. bluewave
    Definitely. They don’t really come into great focus until the shorter range. The globals can show a rain-snow line near the Driscoll bridge days 3-5 that ends up between the George Washington and Tappan Zee bridges in the mesos once under 36 hrs. This is the challenge of living in such a high population area near the ocean. An error rate like this in the Plains isn’t as important since many regions are much more sparsely populated and would go unnoticed.
  13. bluewave
    These global models haven’t had much success with the proper placement of the rain-snow line near NYC at the 72-96 hr range. It usually comes down to mesos like the NAM to correctly diagnose the warm tongue from the ESE and the other models have a cold and weak bias with this feature. Unfortunately, the NAM hasn’t been updated since 2017. And several models like the HRRR have had a cold bias. So I hope they can come up with a suitable NAM replacement before retiring the model.
  14. bluewave
    Could easily be a NW drift next few days with those NYC current totals creeping further NW in later runs.
  15. bluewave
    I was in SW Nassau back on LI not far from JFK and only picked up 9”. That storm probably had the greatest rates under that epic 50 DBZ band of any snowstorm in the modern doppler radar era. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/29/6/waf-d-14-00056_1.xml Abstract On 8–9 February 2013, the northeastern United States experienced a historic winter weather event ranking among the top five worst blizzards in the region. Heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions occurred from northern New Jersey, inland to New York, and northward through Maine. Storm-total snow accumulations of 30–61 cm were common, with maximum accumulations up to 102 cm and snowfall rates exceeding 15 cm h−1. Dual-polarization radar measurements collected for this winter event provide valuable insights into storm microphysical processes. In this study, polarimetric data from the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) in Upton, New York (KOKX), are investigated alongside thermodynamic analyses from the 13-km Rapid Refresh model and surface precipitation type observations from both Meteorological Phenomena Identification Near the Ground (mPING) and the National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Office in Upton, New York, for interpretation of polarimetric signatures. The storm exhibited unique polarimetric signatures, some of which have never before been documented for a winter system. Reflectivity values were unusually large, reaching magnitudes >50 dBZ in shallow regions of heavy wet snow near the surface. The 0°C transition line was exceptionally distinct in the polarimetric imagery, providing detail that was often unmatched by the numerical model output. Other features include differential attenuation of magnitudes typical of melting hail, depolarization streaks that provide evidence of electrification, nonuniform beamfilling, a “snow flare” signature, and localized downward excursions of the melting-layer bright band collocated with observed transitions in surface precipitation types. In agreement with previous studies, widespread elevated depositional growth layers, located at temperatures near the model-predicted −15°C isotherm, appear to be correlated with increased snowfall and large reflectivity factors ZH near the surface.
  16. bluewave
    The only tears experienced from a weather event was missing the Nemo jackpot zone of 6”+ an hour and 50 DBZ radar reflectivities leading to 30-40” in CT. All this weather forecasting and analysis stuff is purely technical with no emotions involved. I save the emotions for the actual event.
  17. bluewave
    EPS coming around to the GEFS idea of a stronger MJO 4 as it struggles with the barrier effect when dealing with convection near the Maritime Continent. New run Old run
  18. bluewave
    This happens all the time with rainstorms but many just pay attention to storm tracks and exact amounts when the chance of snow is involved.
  19. bluewave
    Yeah, it had an epic run from Sandy to Nemo. But struggled with Boxing Day in that short range run that went too far east while the GFS was correct further west. Believe it did better with the storms the previous season. Wish they would create a model skill score just for East Coast storm tracks. Bet the Euro and EPS would score lower than the headline global skill scores which always get touted.
  20. bluewave
    They were too amped with the January 2015 blizzard and too suppressed with the January 2016 blizzard.
  21. bluewave
    My only issue with the Euro and EPS after the upgrades around 2014 and 2015 is how erratic the model has been with east coast lows. We have either seen outright long range suppressed solutions which correct NW closer to storm time. At other times there have been overamped lows with are modeled too deep and get weaker and more strung out closer to storm time. I used to really like the model for EC storm tracks in the period from Sandy to Nemo. But something really changed with the model after that period.
  22. bluewave
    Yeah, two issues in play. The actual ratios and the raw model cold biases. But even the MOS numbers have been too cold at times this winter. That’s why I wouldn’t even think about specific accumulations until under 72 hrs or even 24 hrs in a marginal situation like this.
  23. bluewave
    I never said that it couldn’t snow. Just that those 10:1 charts look overdone for such a marginal airmass.
  24. bluewave
    A good cold air source wouldn’t have highs in the upper 30s. Marginal air masses leave less leeway for significant snowfall from short term model changes.
  25. bluewave
    I don’t trust those 10:1 charts in marginal temperatures.
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