bluewave

Give me a 30 day pattern like this and I don’t care what the rest of the winter does.

Anything over +1 in the Nino 4 region is very strong due to the narrower range there than areas further east. The earlier record warmest was in the 09-10 El Niño at +1.18 on ersst v5 for a monthly average. So that was the strongest modoki on record to that point in time. The 15-16 super El Niño set the all-time record coming in at +1.44. If we can sustain a monthly Nino 4 ersst v5 reading above +1, then it will be a top 3 strongest Nino 4. Remember, none of the past east based El Niño’s like 97-98 and 82-83 even approached +1 or greater in Nino 4. Technically speaking, Nino 4 remaining above +1 will constitute a full basin event since the forcing will lean west.

Maybe we can find a way to sneak in a PRE with two hurricanes to our south on Wednesday and a strong jet entrance region over the Northeast.

I believe the most anomalously warm ENSO region for late August is Nino 4. Nino 1+2 and 3 were warmer in 1997. But someone can check and see how close Nino 4 is to the record near +30 C. So it’s no surprise that the forcing will focus near the Dateline. Very rare modoki forcing with 1+2 and 3 influence getting muted.

Yeah, living near the shore is great. But the challenge on Long Island is summer traffic and lack of parking in places like Long Beach. Long Beach made a nice comeback after Sandy. Great restaurant scene and newer boardwalk.

Haha. I liked the shoreline best. But the cost of living was through the roof.

Yeah, very small sample size and the current subsurface doesn’t match any of the past cases in the JMA extended subsurface data set. At least in 1997 and 2016, we could see the upper ocean heat anomalies near 2c. This time we are only half that amount. So it’s hard to know how much warming is in pipeline.

I am originally from Long Island.

Thank you. The sea breezes here remind me of the Long Island south shore. My first time living on the U.S. mainland. Avelo looks like a nice small airline

I moved up to the CT shoreline just east of Tweed airport. So KHVN is my new nearest official station. It’s a cool little airport tucked into a nice community. So I may be as close to KHVN is Rjay us to ISP. I get some nice sea breezes here right off the sound. I will keep posting in NYC Metro since the crew feels like extended family to me.

While several ENSO models are going super, the subsurface is still much less impressive than at this point in 2015 and 1997. I know it’s only a small sample size of two. But the current upper ocean heat content near +1 is much lower than the +2 values those years at this time. So not sure how we get to super status without the upper ocean heat doubling from +1 to +2. Not really seeing that yet with the trades returning and the WPAC forcing to start September. Right now looks like 1+2 may have peaked and 3, 3.4, and 4 will continue a slow but steady climb as the SST departures work west. This year could be a candidate for an early peaking event should the follow up kelvin wave activity remain as weak as it has been. Also note the lack of a WPAC cold pool which helped development in 1997 and 2016 with the very impressive WWB activity near the Dateline which has been missing this year.

Closest developing El Niño 500 mb analogs to this summer were 2014 and 2009. Notice the strong blocking near Greenland and the +PNA ridge over British Columbia. Also the trough in the Great Lakes to Northeast. But this summer was much warmer than those two years due to the record global temperatures well above 2014 and 2009.

On track for only the 9th August at LGA with no 90° days. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2023 0 9 - 2008 0 0 - 1986 0 0 - 1982 0 0 - 1972 0 0 - 1967 0 0 - 1963 0 0 - 1950 0 0 - 1946 0 0

It’s on the World Climate Service free SST page. https://s2s.worldclimateservice.com/climatepanel/

It seems like the historic marine heatwave near Japan is inhibiting the PDO from going positive. The strongly negative PDO is another factor that goes against some of the more aggressive ENSO models becoming super. All 4 super El Niños since 72-73 had a neutral or plosive PDO in August. So we have the WPAC, PDO, and subsurface vastly different from all 4 past super events. But that may be too small a sample size to be definitive. We’ll see how it goes.

Pattern looking very La Niña-like to start September with strong Maritime Continent forcing despite the IOD and SOI. So the WPAC warm pool is continuing to call the shots.

It’s not having much influence suppressing the trades which are set to return after the recent WWB pattern. Even with the strong east based ongoing WWB, the Nino 1+2 region couldn’t push above +4 like it did back in 1997. This shows hat the warming I the eastern regions is getting close to its limit absent a strong kelvin wave and significant subsurface warming.

I am hoping we can have some blocking carryover into the winter like some of the other years with near record summer blocking. But it’s tough to know for sure until the winter actually starts.

The blocking verified stronger than the forecasts from last week. We need to see more of this type of model bias during the winter. 168 hr forecast verification

It just feels cooler relative to the extreme heat of recent summers. But nothing noteworthy like 2009 was. We’ll take what we can get.

Pretty close to the forecasts. The most extreme rainfall relative to annual averages remained in the deserts as expected. Death Valley had their rainiest day on record. This was equal to a full year of precipitation surpassing the record set just last summer.

Yeah, warm spots like Newark will easily fall below the 33 average number of 90° days since 2010. Today was only the 23rd day to reach 90° at Newark. Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Season Mean 0 2 5 15 8 3 0 33 2023 2 1 1 14 5 M M 23 2022 0 4 6 20 18 1 0 49 2021 0 4 12 11 13 1 0 41 2020 0 0 5 17 9 0 0 31 2019 0 1 4 14 4 3 1 27 2018 0 4 5 9 14 4 0 36 2017 0 3 5 9 2 3 0 22 2016 0 3 3 16 13 5 0 40 2015 0 2 4 11 13 5 0 35 2014 0 0 2 8 2 3 0 15 2013 0 2 4 15 3 1 0 25 2012 0 2 6 16 7 2 0 33 2011 0 1 4 22 4 0 0 31 2010 1 2 13 21 11 6 0 54

Philly is closer to 2014 so far than 2009. Plus 2009 wasn’t as cold in Philly as it was in our area. Newark had its 2nd coldest June and July average while Philly was only 13th coolest since 1931. Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Aug 20 Missing Count 2023-08-20 75.8 0 2022-08-20 79.0 0 2021-08-20 77.4 0 2020-08-20 78.4 0 2019-08-20 78.0 0 2018-08-20 76.8 0 2017-08-20 76.9 0 2016-08-20 78.8 0 2015-08-20 77.7 0 2014-08-20 75.9 0 2013-08-20 76.7 0 2012-08-20 78.0 0 2011-08-20 78.6 0 2010-08-20 80.1 0 2009-08-20 74.8 0

Coolest since 2017 and 2014 in NYC and 2018 and 2019 at Newark. That 2009 summer is a tough act to follow. 2009 was also the last time Newark had back to back top 10 coolest June and July. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 2023 74.8 11 2022 76.7 0 2021 75.9 0 2020 76.9 0 2019 75.6 0 2018 75.8 0 2017 74.3 0 2016 76.7 0 2015 76.3 0 2014 74.4 0 2013 75.7 0 2012 75.5 0 2011 75.9 0 2010 77.8 0 2009 72.0 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 2023 76.4 11 2022 79.2 0 2021 78.3 0 2020 77.6 0 2019 76.5 0 2018 76.5 0 2017 74.7 0 2016 77.6 0 2015 76.6 0 2014 74.8 0 2013 76.3 0 2012 76.9 0 2011 78.0 0 2010 78.7 0 2009 73.5 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1958 67.5 0 2 1947 67.8 0 3 1982 67.9 0 4 1940 68.5 0 5 1972 68.8 0 6 2009 68.9 0 - 1955 68.9 0 7 1936 69.1 0 8 1935 69.2 0 9 2003 69.3 0 - 1985 69.3 0 - 1979 69.3 0 10 1948 69.4 0 - 1946 69.4 0 - 1932 69.4 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1956 73.1 0 2 2000 73.7 0 3 1996 73.8 0 - 1962 73.8 0 - 1933 73.8 0 4 2001 74.1 0 - 1945 74.1 0 5 1969 74.2 0 - 1967 74.2 0 6 2009 74.3 0 7 1940 74.5 0 8 1932 74.7 0 9 1939 74.8 0 10 1976 74.9 0 - 1960 74.9 0 - 1946 74.9 0 - 1936 74.9 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Jul 31 Missing Count 1 1940-07-31 71.5 0 2 2009-07-31 71.6 0 3 1947-07-31 71.7 0 4 1936-07-31 72.0 0 5 1932-07-31 72.1 0 6 1958-07-31 72.2 0 - 1946-07-31 72.2 0 7 1945-07-31 72.4 0 8 1956-07-31 72.5 0 - 1938-07-31 72.5 0 9 1933-07-31 72.6 0