bluewave

Around half the number of 90° days so far. Data for January 1, 2023 through August 17, 2023 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 ESTELL MANOR COOP 25 HARRISON COOP 25 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 22 Newark Area ThreadEx 22 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 22 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 18 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 15 TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN Data for January 1, 2022 through August 17, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 40 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 40 Newark Area ThreadEx 40 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 39 CANOE BROOK COOP 37 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 36 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 35 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 34 HARRISON COOP 34 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 34 INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 31 ESTELL MANOR COOP 31 Data for January 1, 2023 through August 17, 2023 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 WEST POINT COOP 13 STONYKILL NEW YORK RAWS 12 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 11 POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT WBAN 11 New York-LGA Area ThreadEx 11 Poughkeepsie Area ThreadEx 11 PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 9 DANSVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 8 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 8 SHRUB OAK COOP 8 DANSVILLE COOP 8 ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 8 Albany Area ThreadEx 8 New York-Central Park Area ThreadEx 8 Data for January 1, 2022 through August 17, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 SARA NEW YORK RAWS 29 STONYKILL NEW YORK RAWS 26 POUGHKEEPSIE AIRPORT WBAN 26 New York-LGA Area ThreadEx 26 Poughkeepsie Area ThreadEx 26 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 26 SARATOGA SPRINGS 4 SW COOP 23 Albany Area ThreadEx 22 SHRUB OAK COOP 22 ALBANY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 22

Yeah, very close to normal temperatures this summer across the region.

Over 2000 MU Cape is pretty good for that early in the morning.

It was the highest July average dewpoints on record for New England keeping the low temperatures at record high levels. Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2023 62.4 0 2 2020 59.9 0 3 1947 59.5 0 4 2018 59.4 0 5 2010 59.2 0 Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2018 82.4 0 2 1952 82.0 0 3 1959 81.4 0 4 2023 80.6 0 - 2019 80.6 0 Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2023 71.5 0 2 2018 70.9 0 3 2020 69.9 0 4 1970 69.6 0 5 1952 69.5 0

The story made news about 20 years ago when the tree growth over the ASOS became obvious. But there hasn’t been any more media interest since then. So we just cover the story on this forum. http://www.weather2000.com/ASOS/NYC_ASOS.html Recent story in 2021 showing the tree growth and how the weather instruments had no trees over them in the old days. https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/new-york-city-arguably-has-the-most-unique-weather-observations-in-america Excessive tree growth has caused NYC to significantly decline on the heatwave list since 1971. NYC was near the top for heatwaves during the 1971-1980 period of 10 warm seasons. It has dropped to the bottom of the list on the most recent 10 season period from 2014 to 2023. # of 3 day or more 90° heatwaves 1971-1980 EWR………………..………….23 NYC………………………..….21 Freehold-Marlboro….…..19 New Brunswick……………18 LGA……………………………..12 POU…………………………….12 # of 3 day or more 90° heatwaves + increase since 1971-1980 2014-2023 Freehold-Marlboro……..52…..+33 Newark………………………41……+18 New Brunswick…………..38……+20 LGA…………………………….28……+16 POU…………………………….28……+16 NYC…………………………….20……..-1

I guess that they were just being cautious. They have been forecasting long before these models have improved so much. So they extended the watches further east in case the models were weakening the storms too soon.

It’s really all about investment and innovation in models like the HRRR and HRDPS that make a big difference with convection forecasting. Models in the past couldn’t produce this level of accuracy.

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The excessive tree growth over the temperature sensor has resulted in the longest streak not going over 98° in Central Park history at 4000+ days. Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature <= 98 for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Dates Period of record: 1869-01-01 to 2023-08-07 1 4037 2012-07-19 through 2023-08-07 2 4022 1966-07-14 through 1977-07-17 3 3260 1885-07-22 through 1894-06-24 4 2844 1903-09-19 through 1911-07-02 5 2212 1911-07-11 through 1917-07-30 6 1786 2005-08-14 through 2010-07-04 7 1763 1983-09-12 through 1988-07-09 8 1761 1957-07-23 through 1962-05-18 9 1476 1919-07-05 through 1923-07-19 10 1475 1944-08-12 through 1948-08-25 Data for July 19, 2012 through August 8, 2023 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Highest Max Temperature NJ CRANFORD COOP 103 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 103 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT COOP 103 NJ HARRISON COOP 102 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 101 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 101 NJ RINGWOOD COOP 101 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 101 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 100 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 100 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 100 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 100 NY WORLD TRADE CENTER WBAN 99 NY WEST POINT COOP 99 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 99 CT PUTNAM LAKE COOP 99 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 99 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 99 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 98 NY PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 98 NY CENTERPORT COOP 98 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 98 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 98 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 98 NY MATTITUCK COOP 98

The HRRR and HRDPS have been doing a great job with convection. Maybe the introduction of AI plus the Euro eventual 5km resolution upgrade will improve convection forecasts past 48 hrs. https://www.ecmwf.int/sites/default/files/ECMWF_Roadmap_to_2025.pdf

The record warmth this July increases the odds that 2023 will finish as the warmest year on record.

Yeah, every season since 2000 has been all or nothing for snowfall at Islip. No moderate seasons with between 13-32”. Numerous moderate seasons from 1963 to 1990. So the character of our snowfall distribution has changed. Very hard to do a seasonal forecast in the fall and know if we are getting 33-65 “or under 10” for season. In the old days you could do a moderate seasonal snowfall forecast for 15-30 “or 20-30” and have a reasonable chance of being correct. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 2023-04-30 5.0 0 2022-04-30 37.0 0 2021-04-30 33.5 0 2020-04-30 6.8 0 2019-04-30 12.8 0 2018-04-30 65.9 0 2017-04-30 39.3 0 2016-04-30 41.4 0 2015-04-30 63.7 0 2014-04-30 63.7 0 2013-04-30 46.9 0 2012-04-30 4.7 0 2011-04-30 55.3 0 2010-04-30 53.8 0 2009-04-30 36.2 0 2008-04-30 10.7 0 2007-04-30 9.0 0 2006-04-30 36.0 0 2005-04-30 58.8 0 2004-04-30 41.4 0 2003-04-30 54.6 0 2002-04-30 3.7 1 2001-04-30 38.9 1 2000-04-30 9.0 0

July was a record month for US severe reports. But it seems like Europe had even more extreme severe.

Strong MCS signal from DC to near Philly. Also convection into NE PA, SE NY, and NW NJ. But everything weakens as it gets closer to NYC.

Yeah, it usually works out that way. Plus the clouds are holding on a little longer from the am convection here.

New July record for 500 mb blocking near Southern Greenland.

Looks like another event where the severe maxes out from SE PA to around Philly and Central and Southern NJ. Impressive rear inflow jet crossing that area tomorrow with the MCS. Probably plenty of gusts there 60-70+mph with embedded tornadoes possible. Could even be a few 70+ gusts if the MCS really gets going.

It does look like a break between the morning and late afternoon or evening convection. Several models clear out enough for mid to upper 80s pushing to near Philly which would help to destabilize the atmosphere for the evening severe potential.

Yeah, members on here will tolerate a mild winter as long as we get some decent snowstorms. While every winter in the Northeast since 15-16 has been warmer than average, some of the milder years did feature decent snowstorms. But the winters like 19-20 and 22-23 that are both mild and relatively snowless can be tough to take. Unfortunately, the track record for these seasonal models even a month or two out has been shown to be very low skill at times. Competing areas of marine heatwaves which drive the forcing seems to make these forecasts even more uncertain.

It’s a pretty big jump at this point to even talk about specific winter El Niño comparisons when the July forcing is still well west of where it usually is for a developing El Niño. This is a function of how warm the WPAC back to the IO still is for a developing El Niño. While Nino 1+2 to 3 is very warm for this time of year, the actual SSTs are much warmer west of the Dateline. So it’s still too early to know how much the winter forcing will resemble an El Niño if the WPAC remains as warm. Notice how seasonal models like the Euro went to a stock summer forcing composite for a developing east based El Niño. While it did have some forcing west of the Dateline, that forcing turned out much stronger and further west. The EPAC forcing never developed. So we have to ask how well these seasonal models will perform 5-6 months out when they can’t get the first 3 months correct? Euro summer forecast Verification so far much different

Probably better to go by the average of the all the bouy SSTs to show the record breaking nature of this most recent marine heatwave around the keys and Everglades. Sometimes going by one bouy narrows the scope of the event relative to previous years.