bluewave

Looks like Jersey City made it to 58° earlier. https://www.njweather.org/data/5min/3411 Jersey City NJ 2023-11-22 12:50 Mesonet 58

Yeah, the CPC ENSO blog just mentioned this went strong with just one 3 month ONI period meeting the 1.5C+ criteria. So I wouldn’t have any problem classifying this a super if we get at least one 3 month ONI period of 2.0 or greater. But the strongest years like 15-16, 97-98, 82-83, and 72-73 had multiple overlapping 3 month ONI periods. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/november-2023-el-nino-update-transport-options First stop—this El Niño has now met the threshold for a “strong” event! The August–October Oceanic Niño Index, which measures the three-month-average sea surface temperature in the east-central tropical Pacific (the so-called Niño-3.4 region), was 1.5 °C above the long-term average (long-term is currently 1991–2020). The Oceanic Niño Index is our primary metric for ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the entire El Niño and La Niña system). The monthly Niño-3.4 Index was 1.7 °C above average.

Maybe just that a warmer atmosphere holds more water. There was a problem with the rain gauge in 1983. So the actual reading may have been closer to 70”. But the long term trend remains either way.

This may be one of the rare cases when something that keeps getting pushed back actually verifies. The models have been forecasting much stronger WWBs than have verified near the Dateline since the spring. But this last WWB was actually the 2nd strongest on record for the November 7-15 period behind 1982. So this WWB was the real deal. I didn’t realize how strong it was until the database updated last few days for comparison to past events. So this is the best shot at at least a weekly to perhaps monthly super reading. But ONI is trickier since it involves a 3 month period. And such long forecasts like that can be low skill. 1st place…1982 2nd strongest 2023 Close 3rd place 1994 4th place 1965

That map was posted as what can happen when we have a -PDO and El Niño combined since it matches actual instances from the past. We won’t know for sure until the models get closer to early December since there is sometimes a bit of a forecast barrier around this time of year. As for getting a strong MJO 8 in December, it only happened once in the last decade during 2017. So it’s been a very rare occurrence this early in the season like SSWs. Our our stronger MJO 8s and SSWs have typically been a JFM event when they were able to occur. Not a guarantee that they will occur again this year. All we know for sure is that a strong to super El Niños like we have now and -PDO have historically both been warm signals for winters. But the snowfall signal was more variable. Better snowfall outcomes during the 82-83 and 15-16 super El Niño’s than 97-98 and 72-73. Also better snowfall outcomes during 04-05 -PDO El Niño than 94-95. So very mixed snowfall results.

I don’t really trust those ultra long range MJO forecasts since it has been very rare to get strong early winter MJO 8 passages in the last decade.

The risk is that the -PDO stubbornly tries to hang on and the ridge NW of Hawaii splits the Aleutian Low. One piece goes back to the Bering Sea and another into the SW US. This pops a downstream ridge near the Great Lakes or Northeast even with a technically positive PNA. While model forecasts beyond 10 days are uncertain, some of them are starting to show patterns matching past -PDO El Niños.

I believe this rapid spike in Nino 3.4 over the last week may be a first time it backed in from the west. So big Nino 3.4 rises in the past usually came from east. This may be why the Nino 3.4 SSTs are so much warmer than past instances with lower upper ocean heat content. A shallower depth higher OHC content near the Dateline is getting the job done almost as well as much more significant OHC anomalies further east did in the past. This is turning out to be a great learning event on how El Niño’s can form in new ways. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml

You are correct if you are referencing the 72-73 to 97-98 era. But since 15-16, we have seen the first +30C warm pools east of the Dateline. So this is a new feature with the way El Niño’s have been forming. Also why we don’t get true east based El Niños anymore. But the warm pool near the Maritime Continent is more expansive this year than 15-16.

Now you are muddying up this discussion with over the top comments. Discussing persistent weather patterns isn’t hysteria. It’s called pattern recognition. We have been talking about more persistent patterns with various studies mentioned. You are playing rhetorical games with the fixation on permanence. None of the good papers ever say that a more persistent pattern is a permanent pattern. I have mentioned time and time again that the models aren’t certain whether something becomes permanent or not. Just that it becomes more frequent and it’s unknown whether it transitions to a new pattern in some new climate state. The West Coast ridge that you mentioned was initially occurring during the winters of 13-14 and 14-15. I am aware of no good papers at that time which said it would become a permanent winter state. But that record ridge has been reoccurring more frequently during the warm seasons leading to extreme drought and Western heatwaves as was the case a few summers ago with historic PAC NW heatwave and drought ridge. So that ridge has become a persistent feature. Several studies focused in on record SST warmth around 15N in the WPAC as a generator of this 500 mb pattern. There were also no good papers stating a permanent drought in Texas. What has been stated is that the water cycle becomes more extreme as climate warms. So we alternate between more extreme droughts and flash floods which has been the persistent pattern since at least 2010. The Southeast ridge or Western Atlantic ridge has become more frequent over time. Many studies focus on the rapid expansion of the WPAC warm pool and shift to more persistent La Niña and MJO 4-6 states. Plus it’s also possible this is related to a slowing AMOC. There are no papers I am aware of that mention permanence. Just that it has become a more frequent pattern and it’s unknown how this pattern will change in the future.

Pretty weak CAA this fall so far with most of the cooler mornings having lighter winds and radiational cooling. NYC needs a old fashioned cold front with strong NW flow to make it to freezing this time of year. The CAA looks more impressive behind the cold front on Friday. So even if the winds slacken by morning, NYC could see it’s first freeze on Saturday.

Looks like the low topped squall and 40+ mph gusts come through early tomorrow. Then a mostly dry day for travel with highs near 60° on Long Island. Then a seasonable and dry Thanksgiving with highs in the low 50s. So great travel weather around the holiday.

If any pattern becomes persistent enough, then it becomes the new climo. Then it’s forecasters job to try and figure out at what point the forecast will deviate from the new established pattern. So far none of the forecasts for a colder winter in the Northeast have worked out for the last 8 years. Not even sure what the forecaster would need to see in the early season data to go colder. But we will eventually see a colder winter here. It’s just getting the timing correct which will be a challenge.

Cold air drainage special. https://www.northcountrypublicradio.org/news/story/21443/why-lake-clear-is-so-very-cold#:~:text="And it was so interesting,air drainage%2C" Werner said.

Looks like the forecast is for 1° at Saranac Lake but the record is -10°. Saranac Lake Area, NYPeriod of record: 1903-03-01 through 2023-11-19 11/21 -10 in 1933 -3 in 1903 -2 in 2018 https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=137&y=113&site=btv&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=137&map_y=113

Looks like a chilly night outside NYC.

The one constant with models like the EPS weeklies is that they always seem to struggle even more than at other times of the year with long range December forecasts issued before Thanksgiving. It may have something to do with the change up with the seasonal patterns as we we shift gears from November into December. We have seen some very significant model shifts between November 20th and 30th for even just the first week of December. So I don’t start putting to much stock in them until we get closer to the start of December. Some years the Euro monthly for December nailed the December pattern when issued on the 5th. I can’t remember the last time the model had a successful December forecast issued around November 20th. That being said, we have seen some pretty low skill EPS December forecasts issued on or around December 5th.

It was snowman that posted the tweets from Eric and Paul. My comment was that those constructed analog forecasts beyond 15 days are hit or miss. Not sure if Paul keeps verification statistics on them. There have been numerous times he posted them to twitter and we got completely different patterns. But that is par for the course with forecasts beyond 15 days. We know they are a crapshoot but the public may not realize the difference.

Technically you may be right. But at least for the Northeast, any trough in the West can significantly limit how much cold air is available. It will be interesting to see how this winter plays out with all the competing influences.

It’s not necessary to definitively know whether a persistent pattern is permanent or not in order to use it as an effective forecast tool in the present.

Oh I see what you mean. I think a bunch of stuff gets retweeted or agreed with without people fully looking at what they are retweeting or agreeing with.

Those composite analogs on that site are very hit or miss for forecasts beyond 15 days.

Probably won’t make much difference on the sensible weather pattern whether the ONI peaks at strong or super. It may be more important whether the -PDO or Niña-like pattern continues to play the back and forth with the El Niño. A super El Niño can displace the Aleutian low too close to the Western US. But a -PDO El Niño can do the same thing due to the stronger Aleutian ridge NW of Hawaii. So while some may not technically call it an Aleutian low, any troughing in the Western US could produce the same warm outcome for the Northeast.

A stronger Southeast ridge doesn’t mean imminent doom. Outside this board, milder winters with lower heating bills are welcomed. We are in the minority enjoying KU events and really cold winters. But it’s not a good thing long term if you are in the snow plow or ski business.

And there is zero question in my mind that the next time we miss a snowstorm due to a stronger SE ridge you will just chalk it up to bad luck or random chance.