bluewave

I am just an a little weary about how amplified this pattern will be over the next week. I don’t want to repost the 500 mb composite yet to another thread and prematurely get hopes up so early. I was looking at the EPS mean and there were several storm tracks too close to tracking near or just east of NYC for comfort. We have seen the rain snow line tick a little NW from the longer range positions. While we will have great blocking and a bit more favorable of a Pacific look for a brief window, the vort dropoing just a little too far to the West could amplify the Southeast ridge a little too much for the coast. But I am hoping we can at least get something out of this before it looks like the pattern warms up again after the 20-22nd.

The rapid warming began in 1981. But March 2012 may have been the first time it became so pronounced. Then we had the record event in December 2015. Followed by the record MJO 4-7 activity continuing up to the present day. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1764-4 https://www.weather.gov/media/lot/events/March2012/March_Heatwave_2012_final.pdf https://phys.org/news/2021-04-distinctive-mjo-super-el-nino.html

This may be the first blizzard warming for the Cascades in such a strong El Niño. They had winter storm warnings during the January 1998 El Niño. But it didn’t rise to blizzard warmings. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/winter/wswwest_jan04.txt

That was the most intense phasing system in the US until March 1993 came a long. https://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Phasing_Storms.html Phasing Storms My Home Page This page is about storm systems in North America that can be characterized by two or three upper level lows (or vortices or troughs) that merge together to create a bigger or more intense storm, sometimes resulting in a snowstorm. Midwest Blizzard of '78 January 24-27, 1978 250mb loop 850mb loop Surface Temp and SLP loop Essentially Two-vort max powerful phasing. Did three branches of the jet stream phase together You decide: 500mb Wind Speed Loop (0.2MB) 250mb Wind Speed Loop (0.2MB) Superstorm East Coast storm. March 12-14, 1993 NARR animation NCEP Reanalysis Animaton 250mb loop 850mb loop Surface loop Three-vort max powerful phasing March 13, 1993 12z 300mb wind speed

Record SSTs leading to record rainfall across those regions.

These are going to be two very high impact events for the region only a few days apart. The flood risk will be raised for several reasons. First, we are coming off one of the wettest years and Decembers on record. Second, areas that got heavy snow accumulations could experience rapid snow melting leading to flash floods. Then we have the high wind issues with the very tight gradient and strong LLJ.

The global temperature spike occurred earlier than usual with this El Niño for some reason. The big annual temperature jump usually occurs following the fall and winter like in 2016 and 1998. This one began in 2023 instead of 2024. Perhaps it was related to how long the La Niña lasted. None of our other El Niños near this magnitude had such a strong 3 year La Niña and -PDO before them.

I can’t even remember any La Niña January when we had 2 Great Lakes cutters of 976 mb or lower only 3 days apart.

Thanks. The -PDO seems to be wrapped into this state as well.

Yeah, I have been discussing this for a while now. You can tell the posters in British Columbia are really surprised to see a Nina-like Arctic outbreak during such a strong El Niño. This -PNA vortex forecast to dig into the West would be impressive for a very strong La Niña winter.

I was looking at patterns in January for the strongest El Niños since 1950. The CONUS temperature gradient with the 2nd storm next weekend is pretty extreme even for a traditional La Niña January. The latest MJO forecast continues to gain amplitude. Not surprising that the RMMS are finally catching up to what the VP anomalies have been showing for a while.

That isn’t what I said. This will be among the strongest Niña-like systems during such a strong El Niño. Same goes or the record -PNA trough over the SW. Not that we never experienced a cutter track during a strong El Niño before. Just that this is a higher level of intensity.

Being on the warm side of two strong systems passing to our west next week is going to to continue the Northeast flooding pattern from 2023.

Sometimes La Ninas like those can overcome the -PNA Western trough tendency which makes them so special. The trough in a few days near New Mexico is forecast to be among the strongest on record for this time of year. Just shows how the Niña-like MJO phases can operate even during El Niño’s this strong. This was pretty much unheard of with such strong El Niños before 15-16. It’s what happens when the WPAC warm pool competes with the Nino warming near the Central to Eastern Pacific.

Steady light snow 32° with a coating on the colder surfaces near KHVN.

Some very light snow just beginning here near KHVN.

I remember getting flakes this large several years ago.

2023 came in at 1.48C on ERA5 and 1.43C on JR-55. It will probably take them a while to figure out why this year came in some much warmer than original expectations.

I think the EPS did better with the -NAO due to seeing that double wave break better.

The GEFS did much better with the amplitude of the overall MJO wave moving across since the Euro missed the phase 4 and beyond. That is the lagged 3 showing up. Hopefully we can put something together during that 5 day window before we get the 4 response after the 20th. Plus the EPS chart for the same frame is nearly identical to the GEFS.

If we do eventually make it to 8, I hope we do better than the record phase 8 last March. But it’s still very uncertain since we saw how we avoided phase 8 a few weeks ago. So much SST warmth back into phase 7 near the Dateline.

Strongest on record through phase 4 during such a strong El Niño in January. That’s why I am uncertain how much we can cash in on any short 3-5 day windows. So much amplitude through the Maritime Continent phases would be a challenge. Very uncertain how much lagged phase 3 response before the MJO warmer phase 4 pattern begins to show up. We could definitely use some luck.

We should get a window there as the most interesting part of that is the ridge poking up in the Rockies before the pattern weakens after the 20th. But the one risk is that it only looks like around a 5 day period. If we have a potential event which misses for some reason, we may not get another chance before the more hostile pattern returns. But it least that would be the best 500 mb look we had in a while whatever happens.

We are the exception rather than the rule. Most people that I speak to off this forum can’t wait to move to a warmer climate like Florida once they retire. So they love mild winters with as little snow as possible. But there is good news for someone that has the ability to move if they love snow. The Great Lakes are one of the few spots expected to see increasing snowfall for a while longer due to less ice and warmer lake temperatures. It’s a great location for someone willing to buck the trend of the US population moving south and west over time. Plus the Great Lakes are a beautiful natural environment with plenty of year round activities. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/paradox-lake-effect-snow-global-warming-could-bring-great-lakes-more-it Previously, I discussed a lake effect snow event that buried many places across the Great Lakes. Snow streaming off the lakes is a common occurrence during the late autumn and early winter as cold wintry air from the North begins to filter into the United States over the still relatively warm Great Lakes. But what does the future hold for this lake effect snow machine as surface temperatures continue to warm and our climate changes due to increasing greenhouse gas emissions? Would you believe it might actually mean more lake effect snow in the short term?

The rapid warming in the Tropical WPAC is part of a longer term trend. We don’t have good enough regional climate models yet to whether other areas of the tropical oceans will gradually overtake that one. So it’s an important question to ask. The blob off the PAC NW coast was more of a secondary effect from forcing in the WPAC that may have originated around 15N east of the Philippines. The SSTs in that part of the NE PAC are much colder. So while they can enhance a pattern already in place, they weren’t the main driver.