bluewave

Yeah, March 1984 was right up there for coastal flooding in Long Beach with Dec 73, Belle, and Feb 78. But Gloria and Dec 92 topped those 3. My first memory of coastal flooding was in Dec 73. Detroit got a great snowstorm and we got 75 mph winds and major coastal flooding. The school bus was driving through all the sand left in the streets of the West End when the ocean met the bay.

Yeah, we didn’t get as many days off for storms in the old days. I can still remember walking home from high school during the February 1983 blizzard. We all thought it was really cool. But the March 1984 big coastal flooding event may have been the wildest. Long Beach High School is right on Reynolds Channel in Lido Beach. The storm surge came over the bulkhead and flooded the whole area around the school. Waves were actually pushing into the parking lot and several teachers had to move there cars. The huge windows were flexing in with gusts to 70-75 off the bay. Then the power went out and they sent us home. Probably the heaviest wind driven sleet I have ever walked home from school in.

Fire Island will have more inlets cut in the coming decades and it will be up to the army corps whether they want to leave or plug. But this will present challenges for back bay flooding since the tidal range in the GSB could increase with more inlets.

While it’s going to feel cold here next week compared to how warm it has been, it doesn’t look like it will match the Arctic outbreak for us last February when NYC got down to 3°. Data for February 4, 2023 through February 4, 2023 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Lowest Min Temperature NY CARMEL 4N COOP -10 CT OXFORD WATERBURY WBAN -9 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN -6 CT GUILFORD COOP -5 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP -5 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN -5 NY PORT JERVIS COOP -4 NY SHRUB OAK COOP -4 CT GROTON NEW LONDON AP WBAN -4 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN -4 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP -3 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN -3 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN -3 NY WEST POINT COOP -2 NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP -2 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP -1 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 0 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 0 NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 0 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 1 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 1 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 2 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 3 NJ HARRISON COOP 3 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 3 NY SYOSSET COOP 3 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 3 NY CENTERPORT COOP 3 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 4 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 4 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 5 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 5 NY WORLD TRADE CENTER WBAN 5 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 5 NY PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 7 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 9

Parts of Fire Island lost all the sand replenished by the army corps after Sandy. I don’t know how coastal sections will manage in the coming decades with continued extreme weather and rising sea levels. We can adapt to this warming climate with more extreme storms. But sea level rise is going to be our greatest challenge next 100 years and beyond.

I only picked up 2” mostly on the grass here before the rain and warmth melted it. I am concerned about the beach erosion on Long Island continuing into the fall. It looks like a very active hurricane season coming up with the record Atlantic SSTs and La Niña.

This month will be a collaborative effort between the borderline super El Niño, record MJO 2-7 for such a strong El Niño, -PDO, and wave breaks leading to the big mid-month -NAO. So far the deepest trough in the US is in the Southwest like we have been seeing in recent years. When the month is finished, it generally looks like that trough will remain there in the means.

Looks like the coldest departures next week will drop to our West like we have been seeing in recent years. Then a quick moderation in temperatures. Very difficult to get any sustained cold here.

You can see the latest EPS weeklies following the MJO with a lag. Jan 15-22…Lagged P3 Jan 22-29….Lagged….P 4-5 blend Jan 29-Feb 6…..Lagged P 7

Looks like 72 mph was peak gust down in Ocean County. 2 S Island Beach State Park 72 MPH 0939 PM 01/09 Mesonet

Latest HRRR has winds peaking around midnight along the NYC-LI South Shore 65+ and 70+ Jersey Shore Monmouth.

It’s really unusual to get two storms this strong only 3 days apart. I think the wave breaking activity caused by this is going to affect the storm tracks for next week. Just don’t have confidence in any of the model forecast storm tracks for next week yet. Especially if we get the weekend system to retrograde and have vorts trying to rotate around it.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44025 The buoy from station 44025 has gone adrift as of 1300z, 12/18/23. To view the latest position from the buoy, click here.

Fire Island will need an army corps beach replenishment project like Long Beach got several years ago. I believe the buoys south of Fire Island Inlet and Montauk drifted away following the record wave heights on December 18th. 20 S Fire Island NOT AVBL 23 SSW Montauk P NOT AVBL

The speed of the pattern shifts from phase to phase is pretty wild since this is such an amplified MJO 2-7 for a borderline super El Niño. Plus we add in all these wave breaks leading to so much blocking. It really is much more volatility than we typically see this time of year.

We could transition to a +PNA -EPO at some point from the 26 th to 31st with a 6-7 passage. So I agree it may just be a 5 day warm up before another cool down.

We may have to wait and see what happens to the big Saturday cutter once up in Canada. The block is so strong from the multiple wave breaks that the low starts retrograding. Any storm tracks after this weekend are going to be very low skill for a while until we get all the vorts rotating around worked out. Would like to a least get some snow before we warm up again after the 20th.

I was using the VP anomalies and convection. Strong signal it keeps rolling east next few weeks through 4-7. But not sure what happens after that.

The warm up following the 20th looks like an El Niño phase 4 for January.

I was also concerned how amplified the Canadian is and much less favorable look out West. So maybe we may just have to roll the dice again closer to the 20th.

I am just an a little weary about how amplified this pattern will be over the next week. I don’t want to repost the 500 mb composite yet to another thread and prematurely get hopes up so early. I was looking at the EPS mean and there were several storm tracks too close to tracking near or just east of NYC for comfort. We have seen the rain snow line tick a little NW from the longer range positions. While we will have great blocking and a bit more favorable of a Pacific look for a brief window, the vort dropoing just a little too far to the West could amplify the Southeast ridge a little too much for the coast. But I am hoping we can at least get something out of this before it looks like the pattern warms up again after the 20-22nd.

The rapid warming began in 1981. But March 2012 may have been the first time it became so pronounced. Then we had the record event in December 2015. Followed by the record MJO 4-7 activity continuing up to the present day. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1764-4 https://www.weather.gov/media/lot/events/March2012/March_Heatwave_2012_final.pdf https://phys.org/news/2021-04-distinctive-mjo-super-el-nino.html

This may be the first blizzard warming for the Cascades in such a strong El Niño. They had winter storm warnings during the January 1998 El Niño. But it didn’t rise to blizzard warmings. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/winter/wswwest_jan04.txt

That was the most intense phasing system in the US until March 1993 came a long. https://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/Phasing_Storms.html Phasing Storms My Home Page This page is about storm systems in North America that can be characterized by two or three upper level lows (or vortices or troughs) that merge together to create a bigger or more intense storm, sometimes resulting in a snowstorm. Midwest Blizzard of '78 January 24-27, 1978 250mb loop 850mb loop Surface Temp and SLP loop Essentially Two-vort max powerful phasing. Did three branches of the jet stream phase together You decide: 500mb Wind Speed Loop (0.2MB) 250mb Wind Speed Loop (0.2MB) Superstorm East Coast storm. March 12-14, 1993 NARR animation NCEP Reanalysis Animaton 250mb loop 850mb loop Surface loop Three-vort max powerful phasing March 13, 1993 12z 300mb wind speed