bluewave

The GEFS did much better with the amplitude of the overall MJO wave moving across since the Euro missed the phase 4 and beyond. That is the lagged 3 showing up. Hopefully we can put something together during that 5 day window before we get the 4 response after the 20th. Plus the EPS chart for the same frame is nearly identical to the GEFS.

If we do eventually make it to 8, I hope we do better than the record phase 8 last March. But it’s still very uncertain since we saw how we avoided phase 8 a few weeks ago. So much SST warmth back into phase 7 near the Dateline.

Strongest on record through phase 4 during such a strong El Niño in January. That’s why I am uncertain how much we can cash in on any short 3-5 day windows. So much amplitude through the Maritime Continent phases would be a challenge. Very uncertain how much lagged phase 3 response before the MJO warmer phase 4 pattern begins to show up. We could definitely use some luck.

We should get a window there as the most interesting part of that is the ridge poking up in the Rockies before the pattern weakens after the 20th. But the one risk is that it only looks like around a 5 day period. If we have a potential event which misses for some reason, we may not get another chance before the more hostile pattern returns. But it least that would be the best 500 mb look we had in a while whatever happens.

We are the exception rather than the rule. Most people that I speak to off this forum can’t wait to move to a warmer climate like Florida once they retire. So they love mild winters with as little snow as possible. But there is good news for someone that has the ability to move if they love snow. The Great Lakes are one of the few spots expected to see increasing snowfall for a while longer due to less ice and warmer lake temperatures. It’s a great location for someone willing to buck the trend of the US population moving south and west over time. Plus the Great Lakes are a beautiful natural environment with plenty of year round activities. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/paradox-lake-effect-snow-global-warming-could-bring-great-lakes-more-it Previously, I discussed a lake effect snow event that buried many places across the Great Lakes. Snow streaming off the lakes is a common occurrence during the late autumn and early winter as cold wintry air from the North begins to filter into the United States over the still relatively warm Great Lakes. But what does the future hold for this lake effect snow machine as surface temperatures continue to warm and our climate changes due to increasing greenhouse gas emissions? Would you believe it might actually mean more lake effect snow in the short term?

The rapid warming in the Tropical WPAC is part of a longer term trend. We don’t have good enough regional climate models yet to whether other areas of the tropical oceans will gradually overtake that one. So it’s an important question to ask. The blob off the PAC NW coast was more of a secondary effect from forcing in the WPAC that may have originated around 15N east of the Philippines. The SSTs in that part of the NE PAC are much colder. So while they can enhance a pattern already in place, they weren’t the main driver.

It’s one of the fastest warming ocean regions which leads to the stronger and more frequent MJO 4-7 phases.

In January 22 we got lucky and the MJO got stuck in phase 8. While the coastal areas did much bettter, the Pacific did relax for a whole month. But the more +AO favored Long Island for the heaviest snows. 20-21 is a different story. That October I posted in one of the threads how strong the MJO 4-6 was. For some reason, we do bettter with snowfall in La Ninas that have a very strong MJO 4-6 in October than weaker ones. Seems like there is some type of fall modulation effect which alters the typical winter MJO 4-7 response.

I am mainly talking about the record WPAC warm pool leading to more frequent and intense MJO 4-7 intervals. This often results in a trough in the Western US. Then we get the warmer to record warmth here with a ridge over the area. We got lucky with the warmth from 2015 to 2018 in that we still had favorable patterns for snow. This shifted in 18-19 to where we are getting warmth and a general lack of snow. This is what we mean by a hostile Pacific pattern. The most recent low phase of snow which began in February 2022 is just an offshoot of this effect. So with a record 8 to going on 9 warm winters in a row it would figure than we would begin to see a decline in snowfall.

The May to December pattern which got stuck in place related to forcing and record SSTs in the WPAC was unprecedented especially for Canada. Finally some colder weather in Western and Central Canada as the MJO interaction with the El Niño is leading to more of a -PNA pattern for a time this month. This previous interaction served to enhance the Nino pattern in Canada. Now it’s creating more of a Niña-like pattern with cold in the West and Plains down into the US for a period coming up.

This has gone beyond just simple El Niño and La Niña climatology.

I am hoping the convection will weaken in February near the Maritime Continent. But it’s still uncertain and no guarantee until we see what the MJO does after going though 4-7. It will really be a wait and see situation. We have had so many disappointments in recent years with the MJO weakening before 8 and then reloading in 4-7 again.

All the cold keeps going into the West or Plains. This is where the mean trough has been located since around the 15-16 super El Niño. It’s mainly a function of the frequent MJO 4-7 phases.

They should have had 1” on 2-27-23 but probably took the measurement too late after some melting had occurred. Data for February 27, 2023 through February 27, 2023 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Snowfall NJ CEDAR GROVE TWP 0.4 W CoCoRaHS 2.8 NY RIDGE 1.8 SE CoCoRaHS 2.4 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 2.0 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 1.8 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 1.2 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 1.1 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 1.0 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 0.9

24-36 may be the max for set ups like this since they stopped updating the model after March 2017. https://www.weather.gov/media/nws/Public_release_notes_NAM.v4.0.pdf

No guarantees especially if we stall out in 7 instead preceding to 8. But hoping for at least one solid 8 this winter.

BHO is running around 50 to 1 top 10 warmest to coldest months since 2010 as February 15 remains our greatest outlier month of the last decade or so.

That’s for sure as 2024 picks up right where 2023 left off.

I am hoping the MJO can find its way over to phase 8 in February since that would be a great pattern for us.

I believe 1888 made a loop at the Benchmark which prolonged the the heaviest rates. Much higher ratios with that event since it was so cold. But we will never know for sure since it was before the radar era.

NESIS is a nice metric to have. But I am also focused on which storms produce the the most intense snowstorm at their core. Nemo would be my top pick for best snowfall rates in modern times. Give me just one of these each winter and I don’t care what the rest of the winter does.

I liked it much better when the NWS office was in 30 Rock and had the mets going over to the Park to measure snowfall in person. These days the staff at the Park sometimes gets out there too late and the snowfall has melted or settled. It’s not done with the precision of the airport observers. That’s why I think NYC probably got 1 inch like the airports last winter but was under measured. But the below 2” streak looks valid since it’s backed up by the airports which are in the same snow drought.

Definitely. They don’t really come into great focus until the shorter range. The globals can show a rain-snow line near the Driscoll bridge days 3-5 that ends up between the George Washington and Tappan Zee bridges in the mesos once under 36 hrs. This is the challenge of living in such a high population area near the ocean. An error rate like this in the Plains isn’t as important since many regions are much more sparsely populated and would go unnoticed.

These global models haven’t had much success with the proper placement of the rain-snow line near NYC at the 72-96 hr range. It usually comes down to mesos like the NAM to correctly diagnose the warm tongue from the ESE and the other models have a cold and weak bias with this feature. Unfortunately, the NAM hasn’t been updated since 2017. And several models like the HRRR have had a cold bias. So I hope they can come up with a suitable NAM replacement before retiring the model.

Could easily be a NW drift next few days with those NYC current totals creeping further NW in later runs.