bluewave

More of a moderate WWB compared to some of the stronger November WWBs in years past.

November has been the only fall month with record lows around NYC since the super El Niño. But 17-18 was a much better winter into March than 19-20. New York-Central Park Area, NYPeriod of record: 1869-01-01 through 2023-11-13DateLowest minimum temperatures (degrees F) 11/8 29 in 2019 29 in 1886 30 in 1992+ 11/9 24 in 1976 27 in 2019 28 in 1971 11/10 25 in 2017 27 in 1914 29 in 2004+ 11/11 24 in 2017 28 in 1933 28 in 1926+ 11/12 25 in 2019 26 in 1926 27 in 1920 11/13 23 in 2019 24 in 1986 25 in 1920

October was an impressive peak for the IOD with the huge reduction in cloud cover over the Eastern IO.

The IOD peaked back in October. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indices.shtml#bookmark=nino3.4

We’ll probably need the northern stream to relax otherwise any southern stream systems coming after Thanksgiving run the risk of suppression like we are seeing in the forecasts for this weekend. Looks like plenty of Canadian high pressure dominating after Thanksgiving with the -EPO+PNA.

Hopefully, the cold front clears the area and we get a dry Thanksgiving for travel. The EPS may be holding too much energy back to the SW. The GEFS and GEPS have rain on Wednesday but clearing out and cooler for Thanksgiving. Looks like a brief warm up ahead of the cold front.

While OISST hasn’t updated in a while, CRW may have already peaked. This would fit the pattern of El Niños typically peaking by November. It would also mark another year since 2012 with El Niño forecasts showing a significant warm bias. It’s probably related to the models not being able to handle the destructive interference from the record WPAC warm pool and persistent -PDO.

Yeah, looks like our typical post 2010 fall around the region. Endless summer into September or October followed by colder departures in November. This has become very predictable.

All we can say is the warm up around the solstice is a feature of our new climate. The rate of warming since 1981 in late December has been increasing a a significantly faster rate than early December. So our average near 40° is similar to the average in early December 40 years ago. So going over 55 during this period from a week before to around Christmas is the new normal.

These kind of run to run jumps don’t inspire a lot of confidence. The split flow is taking its toll on the EPS. Just give me a clean pattern without competing influences.

Yeah, always weary to buy into Euro phases when it can be over amped at times. I would love to see some phases with the southern stream. It would tell us that the northern stream isn’t as overpowering as recent years. But the southern stream has been getting suppressed in these split flow patterns. We need a change from the cutter hugger, and southern stream suppression storm tracks. Bring back that epic benchmark pattern from 2013 to 2018.

I am thinking we would need a full phase to draw down enough cold air behind that system for a freeze in NYC. Models like the ICON and GFS keep the streams slightly separate. So no freeze in NYC.

The models are really struggling with the split flow and it may be a while before they get the pattern correct. La Niña background lingering through -PDO and El Nino southern stream trying to assert itself. So probably a different solution each run next several days. Models don’t handle competing influences very well.

These monthly averages haven’t verified very well in recent years. None of the seasonal or monthly forecasts last winter got the depth of the Western trough correct. They were just forecasting a vanilla La Niña pattern. Instead we got the 2nd warmest winter on record in the Northeast at close to +5. None of the models were showing that kind of warmth. I think the meteorological community on twitter oversells the value of these seasonal models when many times they are just another version of the fabled GFS 384 hr snowstorm.

I am hoping we get something resembling an El Niño finish to the winter and the CFS MJO 5 IOD rebound forcing influence doesn’t verify in February.

All I said is that the JMA has the same Pacific carbon copy of the 14-15 Modoki El Niño this winter as it did in 18-19. And that it was incorrect with that forecast repeat in 18-19. So I am skeptical that we see a repeat of 14-15 this winter with the entire North Pacific PDO state nearly opposite from the late fall of 14-15.

All we can say for sure is that the fall has featured a blend of El Niño and La Niña influences to the 500 mb sensible weather pattern. So a continuation of that during the winter would probably have differences from the consensus. More in the way of an undercutting trough in the SW US even with +PNA ridge in Canada. This would greatly limit the available cold. But I would like our snowfall chances better than last year if we get some decent +PNA -AO intervals. Plus we are running a record breaking 8 warmer than average winters in a row for the Northeast. So we would probably need a cold Modoki pattern like the JMA has to break that streak. It would also require a complete uncoupling from the -PDO influence like we got in early in 20-21 and Jan 22.

I was just pointing out the skill of the 18-19 forecast. Not that we will verify the same outcome. The JMA forecast for this winter has the same -EPO +PNA blocking as 14-15. But we have a much different PDO state across the NP.

The Euro and the JMA completely missed the last El Niño forecast issued in November 2018. Plus your analogs are different from what the JMA is showing.

Why do you take these 3 month runs seriously when the EPS can hardly get the pattern correct beyond 6-10 days? Same for all the other models. Remember the Euro October forecast for the Nino 3.4 issued in September of +2.0 and we verified closer to +1.66. The one common denominator to all these winter model forecasts since 15-16 has been a cold bias in the East. I pointed out 18-19 since it that was the last time we had an El Niño pattern being forecast.

But it did the same thing with the 18-19 winter forecast issued in November 18. It missed the La Niña or -PDO influence and just went with a cold Modoki pattern for DJF. 18-19 forecast Verification

My first freeze date in Long Beach was usually around the same time as NYC. It’s remarkable how shallow these radiational cooling inversions are. The 85m temperature at BNL near the NWS office was the same as the surface in NYC and at the shore.

NYC and LGA along with the immediate shoreline like Long Beach and Breezy Point will probably have to wait until after Thanksgiving for the first freeze. Lows Jones Beach…37 Breezy point…37 Montauk…37 EWR…32 NYC…35 LGA….37 JFK…31 FRG…30 ISP….27 HPN…28 HVN…27 TEB….28 BDR….30 East Hampton…20 MJG….19

With the very fast Pacific split flow, the models haven’t been very reliable beyond 8-10 days. So we probably can’t forecast much beyond Thanksgiving at this point.

Yeah, continuation of the northern stream dominant pattern suppressing the southern stream. Our next more significant rain and wind event looks to come in a few days before Thanksgiving. Models are predicting a Great Lakes cutter track to our west. So probably a decent warm up ahead of the front. With a little luck we sneak in a dry Thanksgiving without too much wind for the parade.