bluewave

That’s preventing Nino 3.4 from going super on ONI with warmth too far in the east and near the Dateline. So it leaves the subsurface under 3.4 cooler than usual for an El Niño.

Yeah, not sure what it’s going to take to finally see a cold winter again in the Northeast. Northeast DJF average temperatures since 15-16 22-23….30.7…..+4.9….2nd warmest 21-22…..26.1…..+0.3 20-21…..27.1…..+2.2….16th warmest 19-20…..28.9…..+4.0…6th warmest 18-19…..25.6……+0.7 17-18…..25.3……+0.4 16-17…..29.5……+4.6….5th warmest 15-16…..30.7…..+5.8……2nd warmest

Ensembles backing off on cold around Thanksgiving with a warm up right after. So similar pattern of recent years with models underestimating the Southeast ridge day 6-10. New run Old run

Very warm Niña-like fall temperature pattern across North America like the last two years with not much cold air to be found.

3rd greatest 5 hour temperarure rise in November.

It’s mostly that the days have been off beyond a week which is par for the course. Instead of the warmth for Thanksgiving, it just got moved up a day. Then probably another warm up after the Thanksgiving cooldown. But the exact dates after to be determined. The last time we had a really cold Thanksgiving was back in 2018. But this year will be much warmer than that. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/11/23/northeast-endured-its-most-frigid-thanksgiving-decades-record-cold-persists-black-friday/ Data for November 22, 2018 through November 22, 2018 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Lowest Min Temperature CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 10 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 12 NY CARMEL 4N COOP 12 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 13 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 13 CT DANBURY COOP 13 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 14 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 14 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 14 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 15 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 15 NY WEST POINT COOP 15 CT GROTON NEW LONDON AP WBAN 15 CT GROTON COOP 15 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 16 NY MATTITUCK COOP 16 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 16 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 17 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 17 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 17 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 17 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 17 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 17 NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 17 NJ HARRISON COOP 18 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 18 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 18 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 18 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 18 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 19 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 19 NY CENTERPORT COOP 19 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 19 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 19 NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 19 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 19 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 20 NY MOLLOY CERCOM COOP 22

OP models coming around to the idea of a warm up right after Thanksgiving as the Southeast ridge flexes. But there is still a lot of spread in the ensembles. With the convection returning near the Maritime Continent, it’s possible that the coldest departures stay to our west again.

It’s more the nature of the colder air masses this fall so far. Fronts come through and winds drop off pretty quickly. There hasn’t been any strong cold air advection behind the fronts. But this isn’t that unusual as the average first freeze in NYC last decade is 11-16. Frost/Freeze Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length Minimum 03-01 (2020) 10-31 (2020) 215 Mean 03-29 11-16 232 Maximum 04-16 (2014) 12-09 (2016) 243 2022 03-30 (2022) 29 11-19 (2022) 31 233 2021 04-03 (2021) 32 11-23 (2021) 32 233 2020 03-01 (2020) 25 10-31 (2020) 32 243 2019 03-18 (2019) 32 11-08 (2019) 29 234 2018 04-09 (2018) 32 11-14 (2018) 32 218 2017 03-23 (2017) 23 11-10 (2017) 25 231 2016 04-10 (2016) 31 12-09 (2016) 29 242 2015 04-01 (2015) 32 11-24 (2015) 32 236 2014 04-16 (2014) 31 11-18 (2014) 24 215 2013 03-23 (2013) 32 11-12 (2013) 31 233

It would be funny if NYC misses a freeze again for Thanksgiving. Some models drop the winds pretty quickly behind the front with very weak CAA. But Wednesday looks like the milder day ahead of the front.

Heavy rains return to Australia as the IOD rapidly fades and SSTs rebound near the Maritime Continent. This is why the longer range guidance is showing more MJO activity in that region. The 30C warm pool north of Australia is almost as big as near the Dateline. So we’ll have to watch for a forcing back and forth between those regions.

The March 99 heavy wet snow event was probably the best one in that disappointing stretch. Probably one of the lowest snow ratios we ever got in Long Beach. There was so much water content in that snow that the snapping sycamore branches sounded like gunshots in Long Beach. Data for March 14, 1999 through March 15, 1999 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Snowfall NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 9.5 CT DANBURY COOP 9.2 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 9.0 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 9.0 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 8.8 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN 8.3 CT COCKAPONSET RANGER STA COOP 8.0 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 8.0 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 7.9 CT GROTON COOP 7.0 NY MINEOLA 1 NE COOP 6.1 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 6.0 NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 6.0 NY OCEANSIDE COOP 5.8

The post you quoted from me was referring to February 83 which was our heaviest 80s snowstorm. Yeah, that was the heaviest single snowstorm of the 1980s. I can remember looking out the window of the LB High school just after noon and wondering why it was taking so long to start. But when I looked out a few minutes later it went from nothing to very heavy snow in about 10 minutes. It wasn’t until January 1996 that we had a snowstorm that was able to surpass it.

Yeah, that was the heaviest single snowstorm of the 1980s. I can remember looking out the window of the LB High school just after noon and wondering why it was taking so long to start. But when I looked out a few minutes later it went from nothing to very heavy snow in about 10 minutes. It wasn’t until January 1996 that we had a snowstorm that was able to surpass it.

I remember that day very well. The forecast was for snow to quickly change to rain. Got on the Meadowbrook Parkway around 1pm near Garden City with heavy thundersnow. The traffic backup was so bad that I had to take Merrick Ave south instead. Then had to stop every few minutes to clean the windshield off by hand since the wipers couldn’t keep up. Had Craig Allen on the AM radio the whole time for updates. They had to get him on the air earlier than usual due to the surprise nature of the storm. What was usually a 30 minute drive for me took 4 hours to get back to Long Beach with around 10”.

We have actually have done much better with snowfall from late October in to mid-November since 2010 than in late November. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 28 to Nov 20 Missing Count 2022-11-20 0.0 0 2021-11-20 T 0 2020-11-20 0.0 0 2019-11-20 0.0 0 2018-11-20 6.4 0 2017-11-20 T 0 2016-11-20 T 0 2015-11-20 0.0 0 2014-11-20 T 0 2013-11-20 T 0 2012-11-20 4.7 0 2011-11-20 2.9 0 2010-11-20 T 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Nov 21 to Nov 30 Missing Count 2022-11-30 0.0 0 2021-11-30 T 0 2020-11-30 0.0 0 2019-11-30 0.0 0 2018-11-30 T 0 2017-11-30 0.0 0 2016-11-30 0.0 0 2015-11-30 0.0 0 2014-11-30 0.2 0 2013-11-30 T 0 2012-11-30 T 0 2011-11-30 0.0 0 2010-11-30 0.0 0

Yeah, the model graphics off of the old Alden Difax machines were primitive compared to what we have today. Plus the accuracy of those old models was so low that it was the era of nowcasting many big events. I can remember all the paper jams in those old machines. But the April 1982 blizzard still stands as one of my favorite snowstorms of all time. Starting as rain and then changing to blizzard conditions with some of the most lightning I have ever seen with snow. To have early April heavy snow stick on the pavement in the afternoon with no trouble after rain with highs only in the 20s was like something out of the 1800s.

The 80s were known for the big 3. Historic April 82 blizzard that still stands as our greatest late season blizzard. The famous February 83 snowstorm. Then the surprise January 87 snowstorm that was supposed to quickly change to rain but dropped near 10” on Long Island. You could also add the surprise December 88 Norlun that dropped around 10” on Long Island. But the snow band was so narrow that Western Suffolk had close to 12” and Long Beach got nothing. So it was too limited in coverage for me to add to my big 3 list.

Rainy and windy GL cutter next Tuesday into Wednesday will pull down colder air for late November with the first freeze in NYC likely.

While this spike may very well be temporary, the reason behind it is open to debate. May not be exclusively related to El Niño in a way that we traditionally understand. This El Niño is much weaker than 15-16. El Nino global temperatures typically peak near the end of the event in the late winter like in February 2016. This summer into fall historic spike is going against that previous pattern.

We have seen convection return to the Maritime Continent in the past following strong IODs once the IOD dropped to moderate +1 to +1.5 range. The WPAC warm pool is an enormous heat engine. The area of cooling near Java usually bounces back pretty quickly once the IOD drops below +1.

With the rapidly fading +IOD, it will be important how quickly we get a MJO 4-6 forcing rebound in December. The current GEFS and EPS have some forcing returning to the Maritime Continent in early December. We definitely want to see that muted or uncoupled.

My interest in recent years has being trying to figure out why some periods like December into January 20-21 and January 22 went so strongly against the La Niña -PDO background state. These patterns usually sneak up on the short term models for a welcome surprise like they started to do in late November 20. Plus many of these more +PDO atmospheric patterns have actually occurred in the warm season and have lead to record heat and drought out West. But the last time we had such a wall to wall pattern like that in the cold season was the 14-15 winter.

Humans are an extremely adaptable species. So even if the most severe climate scenarios play out, we will find a way to survive. But other species may not be as fortunate. That being said, most of the carbon emissions are now occurring in places like China. The US has actually slightly decreased emissions. Outside of technological innovations on our part, we don’t have any say in how other countries like China manage their emissions. So while our economies are still depended too on fossil fuels, we need to find innovations to adapt to a warming climate. It’s probably going to be a slow energy transition and my guess is that we are probably on track for at least +2C to +3C of warming since the industrial revolution. And possibly beyond that if we don’t start moving faster to find a technologies to transition between 2030 and 2050.

Ultimately, it’s what the atmospheric component of the PDO is doing at any given time which is more important. By atmospheric component I mean the 500 mb pattern. Last winter the oceanic -PDO was strongly aligned with the 500 mb atmospheric component. So the end result was a La Niña on steroids pattern. For some reason, the 500 mb pattern in early 20-21 and Jan 22 was more +PDO +PNA than the oceanic strong -PDO was indicating. So the alignment issue is very important for our sensible weather. Even though the oceanic PDO signature is currently negative, the recent forecast for late November is classic +PDO with the -EPO +PNA. We want to see this more +PDO atmospheric pattern continue. Unfortunately, forecasting when these deviations from the oceanic index will occur usually comes down to the shorter range models.

Yeah, 2017 was one of the few Decembers since 2011 that was cold in the Northeast. The one common denominator with Decembers in the Northeast since 2011 has been warmth regardless of El Niño or La Niña. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/regional/time-series/101/tavg/1/12/1895-2023?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010 December 2022…30.2….+1.2….La Niña -PDO 2021….33.5….+4.5….La Niña -PDO…4th warmest on record 2020…30.9…..+3.2….La Niña -PDO…17th warmest 2019….29.0…..+1.3….Neutral 2018….29.3….+1.6…..Uncoupled El Niño -PDO 2017….24.2….-3.5….La Niña Neutral PDO 2016….28.3….+0.6…La Niña +PDO 2015….39.4…..+11.7….Super El Niño +PDO record MJO 4-6 warmest December on record by a wide margin. 2014….31.6…..+3.9….Modoki El Niño +PDO 14th warmest on record 2013….26.1….-1.1….Neutral 2012….32.4…..+4.7…El Nino peaked on Labor Day and went neutral with a -PDO….winter followed backloaded El Niño theme with Nemo in February 2011…32.7….+5.0…..La Niña -PDO….8th warmest December