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bluewave

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  1. bluewave
    Yeah, I am speaking mainly about NYC Metro coastal with my snow references. The only decent snows over the past 6 seasons occurred with either +PNA-AO or +PNA-EPO extended periods. -PNA-AO just won’t cut it anymore in this much warmer climate which is more prone to Southeast Ridge amplifications. The beauty of the 20-21 winter is that Dec 1 to January 20th was solid +PNA -AO. So we had the mid-December snowstorm to start out December the right way for snow lovers. Even when the PNA went negative in late January, the trough was still locked into the East from remaining there through January 20th. The great snowstorm at the end of the month had the Southeast Ridge suppression due to the earlier +PNA-AO effect lingering. Then our last decent winter month in January 22 had that MJO 8 +PNA -EPO great NE Pacific blocking pattern. The dominant -PNA in December 2022 was just too overpowering for coastal NYC Metro even with one of the strongest -AOs for December. March was more of the same but the interior Northeast sections did very well. So you really want to be far enough interior and even higher elevation to be able to cash in when the -PNA is very overpowering.
  2. bluewave
    Even the dry patterns have been relatively brief and shallow only affecting soil moisture and not water supply. We shifted to a much wetter pattern in 2003. NYC hasn’t had a drought emergency since 2002. That one was less severe than the 1960s drought. Luckily we haven’t see any droughts that extreme as the climate has warmed so much since then. If we had 60s or early 00s drought conditions in this much warmer climate, then usual warm spots would have already recorded highs over 110°. But instead we get higher dew points, heat indexes, and more onshore flow.
  3. bluewave
    Maybe our next chance of more widespread rain in about 10 days. Models all over the place with the low positions. They all agree on the big high sitting over the Northeast. But vary on the subtropical or tropical development underneath. These are the highest tides of the month with the full moon so days of onshore flow could lead to potential beach erosion and coastal flooding if the gradient gets tight enough.
  4. bluewave
    The more amplified Aleutian Ridge and much warmer Atlantic has made the -PNA -NAO much less favorable than it was back in the older -PDO era. These days any deep trough near the West Coast pumps the Southeast Ridge. In the old days the much cooler SSTs prevented Southeast Ridge formation in most circumstances when the AO and NAO were negative.
  5. bluewave
    https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/2024s-unusually-persistent-warmth What might this mean going forward? Unfortunately we still lack a good explanation for what drove the exceptional warmth the world saw in 2023 and 2024. We have a lot of potential mediocre explanations (e.g. low sulfur marine fuel regulations, the Hunga Tonga volcanic eruption in 2022, an uptick in the 11 year solar cycle, El Nino behaving weirdly, etc.). But these have increasingly been modeled, and it is hard to explain the magnitude of the global temperature anomaly the world has experienced even adding all of these estimates together.
  6. bluewave
  7. bluewave
    Reading, PA just had their warmest summer on record with total of 4 top 5 warmest since 2021. Time Series Summary for Reading Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024 76.7 0 2 2020 76.6 0 3 2022 76.4 0 - 2010 76.4 0 - 1966 76.4 0 - 1949 76.4 0 4 1955 76.3 1 - 1943 76.3 0 5 2021 76.1 0 6 2016 76.0 0 7 2011 75.9 0 - 2005 75.9 0 - 1952 75.9 0 8 1959 75.6 0 - 1900 75.6 0 9 2012 75.3 0 - 1944 75.3 0 10 2002 75.0 0 - 1968 75.0 0
  8. bluewave
    Could be some coastal flooding and beach erosion around the 20th somewhere on the East Coast if the Euro control is correct about a possible tropical development under a big high during the full moon.
  9. bluewave
    Yeah, great weather coming up for outdoor activities. We are on track for the driest first half of September in the 2020s so far. We’ll see if the ridge over the Northeast can weaken enough to allow more tropical or other moisture later in the month. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.September 1-15th rainfall 2024-09-15 0.08..so far 2023-09-15 2.32 2022-09-15 1.87 2021-09-15 8.79 2020-09-15 2.51
  10. bluewave
    Yeah, very strong cold pool near Japan was something we haven’t seen in years with the ongoing record marine heatwave there. The only two summers I could find with a similar 500 mb pattern to this summer were 2021 and 2022. You can see how 2013 was reversed in the North Pacific. Very strong ridge over the Bering and Alaska instead of the trough this summer.
  11. bluewave
    The record ridge over the Northeast is so strong that it’s actually forcing the tropical development to stay well south instead of recurving through the Lakes or Northeast like we often see. So we are really going to have to be patient for our first tropical system since Debby back in early August. Some unusually dry conditions for September especially in the drier areas around NJ and to the SW. But at least the dew points will be more comfortable than back in the summer. Upper 80s to near 90° is very tolerable in the warm spots like NJ with dew points only in the upper 50s.
  12. bluewave
    The first record ridge is forecast for later this week. Then the OP models are hinting at a possible even stronger one a few days later. So it would be very impressive to get two 500 mb height records this close together.
  13. bluewave
    If a place like Atlanta does indeed go +5.0 or higher next winter, then historically NYC has finished DJF warmer than +2.0. I was able to find 5 La Niña winters when Atlanta averaged +5.0 or greater. The 5 winters all had NYC above +4.0. +5.0 or warmer Atlanta La Niña winters and NYC departures 22-23….ATL….+5.2……NYC……+4.8 16-17……ATL…..+7.1…….NYC…..+4.2 11-12……ATL……+5.0…..NYC….+5.4 98-99….ATL……+5.8…..NYC…..+4.8 49-50….ATL……+6.6…..NYC…..+4.5
  14. bluewave
    August was pretty much average for our warmer 91-20 climate normals since the small + and - departures canceled each other out. EWR….+0.6 New Brunswick….+0.3 NYC……-1.0 LGA……-1.0 JFK……+0.9 HPN…..+0.6 ISP……..+0.1 BDR…….-0.9
  15. bluewave
    The dry pattern to our SW may try to expand toward CNJ as the pattern warms up and dries out.
  16. bluewave
    The Pacific Jet was the strongest on record for the summer near the SW portions of the Bering Sea.
  17. bluewave
    It’s possible the next few days will be the last solid cool departure days we see until at least October.
  18. bluewave
    It’s tough to tell if the observed SST cooling near Iceland and Greenland is a result of the slowing AMOC, stronger winds, or a blend of the two. https://pure.psu.edu/en/publications/century-long-cooling-trend-in-subpolar-north-atlantic-forced-by-a Abstract A well-known exception to rising sea surface temperatures (SST) across the globe is the subpolar North Atlantic, where SST has been declining at a rate of 0.39 (± 0.23) K century−1 during the 1900–2017 period. This cold blob has been hypothesized to result from a slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Here, observation-based evidence is used to suggest that local atmospheric forcing can also contribute to the century-long cooling trend. Specifically, a 100-year SST trend simulated by an idealized ocean model forced by historical atmospheric forcing over the cold blob region matches 92% (± 77%) of the observed cooling trend. The data-driven simulations suggest that 54% (± 77%) of the observed cooling trend is the direct result of increased heat loss from the ocean induced by the overlying atmosphere, while the remaining 38% is due to strengthened local convection. An analysis of surface wind eddy kinetic energy suggests that the atmosphere-induced cooling may be linked to a northward migration of the jet stream, which exposes the subpolar North Atlantic to intensified storminess.
  19. bluewave
    Yeah, 16-17 was the 7th warmest winter for NYC. We were fortunate to have the lingering +PDO pattern from 13-14 to 15-16 and BM storm track back to 09-10. So we had a great blizzard in February even though there record mid-60s the day before. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2001-2002 41.5 0 2 2022-2023 41.0 0 - 2015-2016 41.0 0 3 2023-2024 40.6 0 4 2011-2012 40.5 0 5 1931-1932 40.1 0 6 1997-1998 39.6 0 7 2016-2017 39.3 0 8 2019-2020 39.2 0 9 1990-1991 39.1 0 10 1998-1999 38.6 0
  20. bluewave
    At least some good news with this most recent study.
  21. bluewave
    The upper ridge at 500 mb actually expanded a bit further north from earlier runs as has been the model forecast pattern for a long time now. But we also got more Bermuda high development at the same time to our south. So the areas away from the sea breeze will be the warmest like we have seen all summer. Could be some tropical development in the Western Gulf next week. But the strong high and ridge to the north may really slow it down and maybe cause it to stall out for a time to our SW. So we’ll probably have to be patient a while longer for another big tropical soaking like we got out of Debby. New run more high pressure to our south with Canadian high pushed further north Old run had too much onshore flow with less high pressure south
  22. bluewave
  23. bluewave
    Strongest WPAC warm pool on record during the summer.
  24. bluewave
    One more cool down before we get the next 590 dm heat ridge and 90° potential this week.
  25. bluewave
    There has been plenty going on the last few years with record global temperature spike. This jump in temperatures was above and beyond what any model was forecasting. The hurricane season last year greatly exceeded any seasonal forecasts. It was the first 20+ named storm season with such a strong El Niño. Then we started noticing much more SAL than usual earlier this summer even as Beryl was able to go Cat 5. Even though the Euro successfully forecast all the dry air this summer over the MDR, it wasn’t able to forecast the record lull since mid-August. At least the U.S. forecast worked out very well for the Euro with the warmer along the coasts and cooler in the middle. So the issues with the hurricane forecast didn’t hurt its skill for the summer temperature forecast. It has been the case with these seasonal forecasts that they have been able to forecast some things very well and miss others. All these competing marine heatwaves are probably making the model forecasts more difficult since the interactions can lead to changes like the ITCZ shift reducing the hurricane count from the earlier forecasts.
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