bluewave

We did have the brief -WPO last February. But it couldn’t mute the influence of the subtropical ridge from the EPAC into the Atlantic. Perhaps that raging Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet and record WPAC warm pool loads the dice for more +WPOs.

Temperature difference between NJ and Long Island. So it’s unlikely JFK sees 100° on Friday. Saturday will have a frontal passage to deal with. So more clouds and convection chances again for the weekend. South Shore beaches could see strong rip currents and 30+ mph SSW gusts Friday.

Pretty strong Ambrose Jet on Friday keeping the LI temps down compared to NJ especially South Shore.

Yeah, I am thinking that both could be related. Since the WPAC has been rapidly warming under that expanding subtropical ridge building into the mid-latitudes. On the Atlantic side it has been causing the -AOs and -NAOs to link with the Southeast Ridge. So it’s been muting the influence of the recent -EPOs, +PNAs, -WPOs, -NAOs, and -AOs. It causes storms to cut or hug instead of taking the traditional benchmark tracks. Leaves no room for trough development under the ridges. Since we just get a continuous ridge from the subtropics up into the Arctic.

The only common thread between 10-11 and 24-25 was the La Niña mismatch. That’s why I mentioned that big caveat in my post that there were other things much different than 20-21, 17-18, and 10-11. A main reason we had the record 60”+ snows around NYC from 12-26-10 to 1-27-10 was the -NAO retrograding back west boosting the PNA enough to put us in business. You will notice we hardly snowfall during most of December and February when the PNA was so negative. That was the greatest 33 days of winter that I ever had the privilege to experience on Long Island. Unfortunately, things have shifted so much that I would be happy these days to get one third those amounts even in a whole season let alone one month. Hopefully, we can get some type of bounce off this record low snowfall pattern since 18-19 before we close out the 2020s.

I posted this the other day. Only a very small area around San Francisco has seen the cooler temperatures. Fits the recent theme of the cooler areas covering much less real estate against the record warmth in the Northern Hemisphere this summer.

I linked it up yesterday showing that the mismatch analogs would be colder than what the Euro was forecasting for last winter. But in this warmer climate they probably wouldn’t be as cold as previous mismatch years. That turned out to be correct since last winter was one of the warmest on record for past instances when those parameters were met back in the colder climate.

There would be no confusion if you asked me yesterday since I keep a record of which days they were posted on. Like…Hey can you direct me to your forecast ideas from last winter? I would have said sure and directed you to the posts from last October. My snowfall outlooks were in the NYC Metro forum.

Try asking me a question first rather than telling me what you think my forecast was. It will make things run much more smoothly. I actually like it when people ask me questions.

Again, I do put out all my seasonal forecasts and ideas. But I like to weave them into the ongoing threads and discussions to keep them topical. This forum would become very hard to read if everyone was starting threads for their own individual ideas.

We already have plenty of threads in these forums. So I don’t feel the need to start a thread for every new thought or forecast. Your ideas of what is an acceptable posting and forecasting style seem pretty rigid to me.

I issue multiple ongoing forecasts so again you are just making stuff up.

My forecasts are released in an ongoing style. So just because it doesn’t meet your approved format means little to me. Maybe your actual forecasts would improve if you took more time to understand the actual climate than hurl insults.

You don’t get to dictate to me or anyone else what the precise format is for issuing long range weather forecasts. You realize in the industry that beating the 6-10, 11-15, and week 3 forecasts is a big accomplishment. Just getting the directional theme of the winter vs what the models are showing is a big win. So I am very happy how last winter worked out from my forecast perspective. Your amateurish posting style detracts from understanding what you are trying to convey beyond the insult comic schtick.

You continuously come on here with these snarky gotcha-style posts which misquote me. I was discussing with you how the mismatch analogs were colder and not warmer than what the Euro seasonal was forecasting for last winter. And that the mismatch years had significant differences from 20-21, 17-18, and 10-11. The common thread was the PNA mismatch and not a specific snowfall or temperature outcome. But I will chalk it up to misdirected anger on your part at how bad the winters have been in Boston since the 2018-2019. It’s still a very bad look on your part and a few other posters. We have seen numerous examples in recent years how these current patterns have become warmer and less snowy than when a similar process like a mismatch occurred in the old days. I use a data driven approach to seasonal forecasting and release more specific outcomes when the data presents itself. My first call from last October was that it would be more of a +PNA mismatch than the models were calling for. This turned out to be correct. But I had to wait until the winter got underway to see the exact magnitude which was record breaking. Extremes like that are very tough to get ahead of time. So I was just happy to get the directional trend correct and let the finer details work themselves out. Next I posted my snowfall outlook in December when that early indicator pointed toward another below average season. So I was correct to say back in October that there were other factors working against snowfall and temperature outcomes of the previous mismatch years. But the magnitude of how much warmer and especially less snowy than previous mismatch winters would become took time to unfold. In the old days, a La Niña mismatch winter like 2024-2025 would have become a slam dunk cold and snowy winter. But the climate has warmed so much since the 15-16 and 22-23 baseline jumps, that these old patterns repeat as a significantly weaker reflection. This is why I added the mention back last October how there were other big differences. Mainly the rapid expansion of marine heatwaves and subtropical ridges muting favorable responses.

While you and I would consider any winter averaging 9.1° in NYC or DTW pretty darn cold, it was still a +0.4 winter for INL against the warmest 91-20 climate normals and a +1.9 against the long term average with several missing years in the old days. But that long term +1.9° is exactly the same as the U.S. long term this past winter of +1.9°. So the local INL conditions were proportional to the wider national average.

The NWS in Upton uses dense rank sorting for their ranking by temperatures. It’s a more accurate way of ranking since it doesn’t skip places like rank sorting. So 34.8° is the 37th warmest winter average temperature without skipping places or the 57th warmest if you skip places. The long term average winter temperature in NYC from 1868-1869 to 2024-2025 is 33.8°. So the 34.8° last winter was +1.0° against the long term average. It was only about -0.9 lower than the U.S. average long term departure of +1.9° for the CONUS. So NYC was fairly representative to what the CONUS experienced. I fully understand why many thought last winter was so much colder than it actually was. First, it was significantly colder than the record warm 22-23 and 23-24 winters. Second, the average winter wind gusts were among the highest on record around NYC Metro. So the wind chill factors were lower than the actual temperatures.

For an individual location like NYC, 34.8° for DJF was the 37th warmest winter average temperatures using dense rank sorting for temperature. The CONUS averaged 34.07° and 27th warmest. In this case NYC was representative of the country for the winter of 2024-2025. So your statement about the national average having nothing to do with individual locations is incorrect.

My first forecast discussion for the winter of 2024-2025 occurred after I saw the high amplitude MJO 5 back in October. It’s in the ENSO 2024-2025 thread on 10-26-24 and page #145. We were discussing my post. The mismatch years I was discussing last October were 20-21, 17-18, and 10-11, due to the high amplitude La Niña October MJO 5 those years. But for snowfall I mentioned that there were other different factors going in which weren’t present those years. After I saw the lower December snowfall indicator around NYC, I went below average for seasonal snowfall last December. This turned out to be correct. The mismatch in my early discussion season turned out to be accurate as it was one of the strongest +PNA La Niña winters ever observed. But I never came out with a temperature forecast prior to the winter. If you want to take my previous mismatch years of 20-21, 17-18 and 10-11,will compare how those worked out compared 24-25. La Niña mismatch winters since 15-16 and winter average temperature 2024-2025….34.07°……#27 warmest 2020-2021…..33.64°…..#34 warmest 2017-2018……33.99°…..#29 warmest 2010-2011…….31.74°……#49 warmest So 2024-2025 turned out to be warmer and not cooler like you mentioned. I didn’t specifically put out a temperature forecast. But if I did, my winter forecast for the CONUS would have been a little too cold , but not that far off from the mismatch reality. Below is the NOAA recap of winter and the ranking map. https://www.noaa.gov/news/despite-arctic-air-outbreaks-us-had-warm-dry-winter-on-average#:~:text=Meteorological winter (December 2024 – February,second-warmest February on record. Despite Arctic air outbreaks, U.S. had warm, dry winter on average

Our next chance of 100° heat coming on Friday.

I am not sure what you mean by using the term nebulous and obfuscate. The issue with relying on modern standards based on 30 year climate means are that they are continuously getting warmer every 10 years. So the bar is lower for defining a colder winter. A departure isn’t the actual temperature. My whole point by using long term rankings back to 1895 is that it’s a fixed number which everyone can relate to. The 3 month average last winter was in no way shape or form considered cold for the CONUS. It was the 27th warmest winter on record for the CONUS at 34.07°. But I agree with you that is was a cold January overall for the CONUS at 33rd coldest and 29.21°. The temperatures rebounded in February to 34.81° or 54th warmest. But there were still some localized cold pockets out West in February. The storm track for NYC last winter was very warm. On the 11 days which .25 or more of precipitation fell the average temperature was 41.0°. This is why the snowfall was so low again continuing the pattern since 2018-2019. The climate periods with similar temperatures going back to the 1970s had very distinct average temperatures across the CONUS and various regions. The first period from 1895 to 1982 had a much colder temperature range. So during each succeeding climate period the coldest winter have been getting warmer at a slightly faster pace than the warmest winters have been getting warmer. This recent 10 winter year period since 2015-2016 has been unprecedented in the modern climate history of the CONUS. There has been no 10 winter period this warm. This is especially the case when looking at how fast the coldest winters have been warming. Coldest winters by decade 2020s so far….33.64° 2010s…………..30.70° 2000s…………..31.26° 1990s……………31.80° 1980s…………...30.56° 1970s……………26.62° 1960s……………30.65° 1950s……………31.44° 1940s……………30.14° 1930s…………...27.78° 1920s…………...28.73°

While the high temperature rankings have been impressive over the last month, the record high dew points have made the low temperature rankings even higher. The Hudson Valley is ranked 4th for warmest highs last month. But the whole area is top 2-3 warmest for the lows.

Could be some waterspouts off the Long Island and Jersey Shore with rotation and SSTs near 80°. 15 E Barnegat Li 0930 78 78

Last December was the 4th warmest on record for the CONUS. While January had decent pockets of cold especially for posters further south, it was only the 27th coldest January on record for the CONUS. Sure for the 2020s it was considered a colder month, but prior to this decade we had many much colder Januaries. Plus we warmed back up in February again. The 2024-2025 winter was among our colder winter for the 2020s so far. But against the long term average it actually ranked as the 27th warmest for the CONUS since 1895 at 34.07°. Right before the 2015-2016 global and regional temperature jump was our last top 40 coldest winter in 2013-2014 coming in at the 32nd coldest with an average temperature of 31.25° 2009-2010 came in even colder at 30.70° and 22nd coldest. This was the coldest winter after the baseline jump in temperatures in 1997-1998. Prior to this baseline jump the coldest winter was 1984-1985 at the 18th coldest with an average of 30.56° Our first baseline increase following the stable 1895 to 1982 climate regime with only a gentle warming occurred in 1982-1983. Prior to this our coldest winter was 1978-1979 ranked #1 coldest since 1895 at 26.62°. It was our last top 10 coldest winter in the CONUS. So we have seen a steady rise in CONUS winter temperatures following each successive baseline rise since 1982-1983. The magnitude of the baseline jumps has also been increasing since 2015-2016 and 2023-2024. This is why the current 10 winter period for the CONUS has been the warmest on record. So the impressive monthly Arctic outbreaks like during the 2020-2021 winters and 2018-2019 winters were more regionally focused instead of CONUS wide during earlier baseline periods. Even the January 2025 Arctic outbreak was more regionally focused. The most significant monthly cold anomaly was February 2021 ranking the 19th coldest February. But regionally it was more impressive focused into the Plains at the 9th coldest February. The winter overall wasn’t that cold due to how warm December and January were.